Creating a New Financial Structure with the Leafs: Kadri, Bernier Rielly, and Beyond

[PuckMagi]

I'd sign kadri 4 mil for 4 years. Could be a huge steal

that would be worth considering... though not sure if Kadri would take that. Might cost at least $4.5 if we want him for 4 years.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

I suppose we have a different value for a player who has had 39 points and 50 points his past two seasons. Our whole problem is we overpay guys like this and never play hard ball, and that has caused the original cap issues. It's not what we pay our stars, it's that we overpay average players.

Chicago paid their 2nd line C 2 mil last year , a guy named Brad Richards. Now granted he took a discount to try for a cup but still, they paid him a reasonable amount, not first line forward/elite second line money. We need to learn this lesson.

I suspect some of you are remembering Kadri's shortened season near point a game pace and viewing him as that kind of player, which granted he may have the potential to duplicate over a full season, but he has never done this.

Read my last post. You're confused in overpaying the wrong players.

Leafs have ALWAYS paid the wrong players. Have always overpaid players with horrible analytics. Kadri? Kadri is the opposite. For everything, analytics shows him to be an elite 2C (many of his categories are tweeners between 1C and 2C). We will never succeed by paying 'hard-working players'. Leafs sign guys like Clarkson, Bozak, Bolland, etc to contracts that are HUGE and fans back it up by saying "He plays with heart" or "He tries so hard". That sort of reasoning is why the Leafs have ended up where they have.

Kadri, Gardiner, Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Marincin, Percy are all apart of our futures and I'm grateful. They all play amazing possession games.

 

[PuckMagi]

If Bernier or Kadri would go for this... we should tell them that we want both of them long term... and we're willing to offer a long term contract... but what we really want to do is sign them to a 2 or 3 year contract... then trade them at the deadline the year their contract expires... and then sign them to a nice big UFA contract as a reward.

What would ultimately be best for the team is to sign each of them to a 1 year contract, say at $5 mil... with the handshake understanding that they get traded at the deadline and then resign next year for $5.5 mil for 1 year, again traded at deadline... then we'll be finished collecting our prospects, and we lock them up for a fair deal. Think of the return we could get for Kadri and Bernier at the deadline... and then we get them right back for free.

Problem is, I doubt they go for such a plan because they'll want the guaranteed huge payout because there's always a risk that you get injured or whatever and can't continue playing in the NHL.

 

[BlueBaron]

Read my last post. You're confused in overpaying the wrong players.

Leafs have ALWAYS paid the wrong players. Have always overpaid players with horrible analytics. Kadri? Kadri is the opposite. For everything, analytics shows him to be an elite 2C (many of his categories are tweeners between 1C and 2C). We will never succeed by paying 'hard-working players'. Leafs sign guys like Clarkson, Bozak, Bolland, etc to contracts that are HUGE and fans back it up by saying "He plays with heart" or "He tries so hard". That sort of reasoning is why the Leafs have ended up where they have.

Kadri, Gardiner, Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Marincin, Percy are all apart of our futures and I'm grateful. They all play amazing possession games.

He may well be "elite" in possession stats etc but his offense just isn't in the financial territory you are talking about. I must be so confused I forgot that possession stats win games and goals and points are not nearly as important...

A tad condescending for an opinion. Obviously we rate the player differently and value different things. Time will tell who management is of a closer mind with. I hope I notice in my state of confusion.....

 

[Mitchy]

He may well be "elite" in possession stats etc but his offense just isn't in the financial territory you are talking about. I must be so confused I forgot that possession stats win games and goals and points are not nearly as important...

A tad condescending for an opinion. Obviously we rate the player differently and value different things. Time will tell who management is of a closer mind with. I hope I notice in my state of confusion.....

I disagree. He is already a beast at even strength, which is amazing considering the tough assignments he gets and the quality of his linemates. Once he gets top pp minutes next season and he plays with more offensively gifted players (ex. JVR), his numbers will explode.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

He may well be "elite" in possession stats etc but his offense just isn't in the financial territory you are talking about. I must be so confused I forgot that possession stats win games and goals and points are not nearly as important...

A tad condescending for an opinion. Obviously we rate the player differently and value different things. Time will tell who management is of a closer mind with. I hope I notice in my state of confusion.....

His pts/60 are also in the 1C/2C range as well? They don't win games. They are indicators of success. IF you want a player to succeed offensively, you play him in offensive situations. Playing him in defensive situations beside offensively-challenged players without PP time doesn't help anything at all with what you want him to do. When I say analytics, I mean his pts/60, his points relative to the team, etc as well.

Think about this: If his pts/60 are in between 1C and 2C range averaging the past 3 years while facing 1st line competition last year and 2C competition the years before that, then it would make sense his points would increase with MORE offensive zone time. I mean, you can't expect him to do more than what he has done. He had 28 even-strength points this season while playing 10 less games. Add at least 8-10 points if beside JVR or Kessel, add 15-20 PP points on that line, also 2-4 more points if the Kessel line continues to get lesser competition as opposed to a different line/he played that 10 games he missed. That adds up to easily 55 points minimum. It's neither out of question nor is it unreasonable to think it's possible. If we continue to believe a Bozak that can't even reach Kadri's level in pts/60 playing lesser competition and with Kessel and JVR, then the Leafs will be in misery forever.

Another perspective if you want to look offense is this:
5v5 Stats (2012-15)
Kessel: 2.13 pts/60 115 points
Kadri: 2.02 pts/60 92 points
JVR: 1.81 pts/60 94 points
Bozak: 1.67 pts/60 76 points

Btw, I didn't mean to sound aggressive. It was more of just a strong opinion with reasoning.

 

[PuckMagi]

How about this plan:

Offer them 3 years at $12 million ($4 million per year each).

Then present them with this alternative offer:

Offer them each 1 year at $6 million. Tell them that they'll be traded at the deadline. Then guarantee to sign them for another 1 year deal at $6 million each the next year. This second deal I guess can't be in writing, but it would be a gentlemen's agreement that the Leafs will honour no matter what the circumstance. Then we trade them at the deadline again... and then sign them to a long term contract after that since we'll be heading for the playoffs with lots of our prospects having made the jump.

From the perspective of Bernier and Kadri, they make the same amount of money in 2 years instead of 3. If they take the Leafs at their word (it would have to be the word of Shanny and Babcock that this is 100% set in stone)... then there's no additional risk on their part such as injury risk.

So instead of locking them up now... we get to trade them each twice over the next two years at the deadline... we can retain salary on one of them this year (and I think both of them next year)... but most teams have cap room built up and are able to absorb high cap hit players at the deadline due to how the cap works and the fact that the salary cap is irrelevant in the playoffs. But that's potentially an extra 4 first round picks doing things this way. And we can still sign them both after the two years to fair deals. We should still have cap space since so many people will be on their ELC... and we don't mind compensating them, especially for holding up their end of the bargain and staying with Toronto and netting us those extra picks/prospects.

 

[Rare Jewel]

I don't think it is too early to think of the structure of payment at all. I think more than ever, (regardless if it rises or not) you don't want to have a situation where you are overpaying for the 2nd tier talent (and I will stress this right now - I am not saying Kadri, or anyone else is 2nd tier talent - but at the same time, they should not be paid like overall elite talent (on 2nd contracts, or third contracts, either).

For example: Whatever path Rielly goes: say it is structured that it is a bridge, then a long term (right before UFA), then structured that you purchase UFA years - any defensive prospect that comes up that is just as good (or can even potentially threaten to be better than Rielly) has the path laid out for them. You can expect a 2 year, a bridge, and then what not. (give or take a year or two).

and so on, and so forth down the line. Rather than being all willy nilly with the funds

I don't want to seem nonchalant with the team finances either, But we need to let things play out a little first then we'll see how the long term payment structure will shake down.

I've already said what think each of the three players in question are worth, So we'll just to wait and see.

 

[Jackothy]

I'm not sure I understand how this is a dichotomy...

 

[Daisy Jane]

I'm not sure I understand how this is a dichotomy...

a division of two financial parts.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I suppose we have a different value for a player who has had 39 points and 50 points his past two seasons. Our whole problem is we overpay guys like this and never play hard ball, and that has caused the original cap issues. It's not what we pay our stars, it's that we overpay average players.

Chicago paid their 2nd line C 2 mil last year , a guy named Brad Richards. Now granted he took a discount to try for a cup but still, they paid him a reasonable amount, not first line forward/elite second line money. We need to learn this lesson.

I suspect some of you are remembering Kadri's shortened season near point a game pace and viewing him as that kind of player, which granted he may have the potential to duplicate over a full season, but he has never done this.

1)
If that's your entire analysis of Kadri then I hardly know what to say. The word simplistic comes to mind though.

2)
It seems like a waste of time for you to respond to my post when you don't address what I said (hint - analytics).

You don't like the guy, that's fine. But your arguments are non-existent so it seems like also a waste of time to continue this discussion with you.

 

[Gary Nylund]

If Bernier or Kadri would go for this... we should tell them that we want both of them long term... and we're willing to offer a long term contract... but what we really want to do is sign them to a 2 or 3 year contract... then trade them at the deadline the year their contract expires... and then sign them to a nice big UFA contract as a reward.

What would ultimately be best for the team is to sign each of them to a 1 year contract, say at $5 mil... with the handshake understanding that they get traded at the deadline and then resign next year for $5.5 mil for 1 year, again traded at deadline... then we'll be finished collecting our prospects, and we lock them up for a fair deal. Think of the return we could get for Kadri and Bernier at the deadline... and then we get them right back for free.

Problem is, I doubt they go for such a plan because they'll want the guaranteed huge payout because there's always a risk that you get injured or whatever and can't continue playing in the NHL.

How about this plan:

Offer them 3 years at $12 million ($4 million per year each).

Then present them with this alternative offer:

Offer them each 1 year at $6 million. Tell them that they'll be traded at the deadline. Then guarantee to sign them for another 1 year deal at $6 million each the next year. This second deal I guess can't be in writing, but it would be a gentlemen's agreement that the Leafs will honour no matter what the circumstance. Then we trade them at the deadline again... and then sign them to a long term contract after that since we'll be heading for the playoffs with lots of our prospects having made the jump.

From the perspective of Bernier and Kadri, they make the same amount of money in 2 years instead of 3. If they take the Leafs at their word (it would have to be the word of Shanny and Babcock that this is 100% set in stone)... then there's no additional risk on their part such as injury risk.

So instead of locking them up now... we get to trade them each twice over the next two years at the deadline... we can retain salary on one of them this year (and I think both of them next year)... but most teams have cap room built up and are able to absorb high cap hit players at the deadline due to how the cap works and the fact that the salary cap is irrelevant in the playoffs. But that's potentially an extra 4 first round picks doing things this way. And we can still sign them both after the two years to fair deals. We should still have cap space since so many people will be on their ELC... and we don't mind compensating them, especially for holding up their end of the bargain and staying with Toronto and netting us those extra picks/prospects.

LOL gentlemans agreement. Is this your idea of honor among thieves? Why don't we go a step further and flex our financial muscle and pay guys more money under the table to circumvent the salary cap?

There are surely rules against this kind of crap. I'd like to think none of the parties involved would be willing to cheat and even if they were, I still don't approve. It wouldn't be sporting.

Are some fans so desperate they think we need to cheat to win? I'd rather win fair and square thanks. It's the only way to win that offers some measure of satisfaction.

 

[Menzinger]

He may well be "elite" in possession stats etc but his offense just isn't in the financial territory you are talking about. I must be so confused I forgot that possession stats win games and goals and points are not nearly as important...

A tad condescending for an opinion. Obviously we rate the player differently and value different things. Time will tell who management is of a closer mind with. I hope I notice in my state of confusion.....

When you look at his point totals in the context of who his linemates were and his usage, they're impressive. Winnik was one of his best linemates last season, and he was generally considered to be a 4th/3rd liner before coming to Toronto.

 

[BlueBaron]

1)
If that's your entire analysis of Kadri then I hardly know what to say. The word simplistic comes to mind though.

2)
It seems like a waste of time for you to respond to my post when you don't address what I said (hint - analytics).

You don't like the guy, that's fine. But your arguments are non-existent so it seems like also a waste of time to continue this discussion with you.

ROFL. You really need to work on your social skills, or lack there of. I actually did acknowledge the analytics however I am looking at the full picture. Possession stats are important, and his hypothetical production potential is very nice also but to suggest that is the entire picture and the only factors that will establish his value is fairly selective and ignores other elements like size, physicality, character and production, yet my view is simplistic.

I guess we better just hope Kadri never hits 60 points or he will be an 8 million dollar player. But you are right about one thing, I am probably wasting my time responding to you.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

ROFL. You really need to work on your social skills, or lack there of. I actually did acknowledge the analytics however I am looking at the full picture. Possession stats are important, and his hypothetical production potential is very nice also but to suggest that is the entire picture and the only factors that will establish his value is fairly selective and ignores other elements like size, physicality, character and production, yet my view is simplistic.

I guess we better just hope Kadri never hits 60 points or he will be an 8 million dollar player. But you are right about one thing, I am probably wasting my time responding to you.

I noticed you didn't respond to my response to you.

I stated:
1) Possession stats
2) Regular stats (not the simplistic ones that was referenced, but pts/60 AND points RELATIVE to the team). I posted his stats relative to JVR, Kessel and Bozaks while playing those worse minutes. Check that out.
3) Analytics are indicators to success, they don't solely win games.
5) Character is great. But that's what wrong with Toronto in the past. We paid 'soul and grit' players without recognizing real talent. Some are still in schock with the new management moves, and that reasonable since fans have not since a real management group altogether since a long time ago where those types of management okay (I'm not solely referring to Burke. I'm refering to the many individual people who got fired recently).

 

[The_Chosen_One]

Sign Kadri long-term but in the $4 million range. I think we could pull that off and easily trade him if required.

If Kadri can rival ROR, we'll have one of the best contracts in the league. We should also remember that Babs is interested in coaching Kadri as well. He really is that talented.

 

[LV*]

Lol great thread daisy. What will tomorrow's thread hold?

 

[-DeMo-]

I'd go 3 years 12 million for Bernier, 2 years 7.5 million on kadri and I would try and sign Rielly to a deal of similar length but a bit cheaper then Hamilton just signed, this summer before he steps on the ice again. if I had to gamble on 1 of these three on a long term contract that pays for a bit of potential but also has the ability to be a steal in the Future it's Rielly.

 

[indigobuffalo]

Kadri has played 6x seasons. The 1 game in 2009-10 counts as far as RFA years are concerned.

Where that doesn't matter is with the ELC's, where it has to be 10+ games.

So you can no longer "bridge-deal" Kadri.

Also, while an RFA has very limited leverage, Kadri is absolutely not signing a $3.2M contract. He has the option for salary arbitration, where he can find player comparables (RFAs only) that play similar styles-of-game, and the arbitrator either agrees or disagrees, then awards the player a contract, which the team can either agree to pay, or walk away from (and they cannot trade him for one full calendar year!)

Without researching Kadri's case in-depth, and creating the Leafs' counter-arguments, I can at least assure you, $3.2M is an absolute joke.

Let's circle back to the $3.2M number to begin with.

Only players getting the league min need to get a 10% raise. Any player making over $1M doesn't need a raise at all. While it has to be 100%, if a team wants to go LESS, they can file for club elected salary arbitration and go as low as 85%.

So all this talk about playing hardball with Kadri is complete malarky. He has options, and the Leafs have to be reasonable.

Kadri as an RFA is about $4M, that's for one season, and then he will be about $5.1M during his UFA years.

A great comparable for his UFA years is Dubinsky, whose new contract starts this year and carries a $5.85M cap-hit. He's better established than Kadri, but both have similar styles and ceiling at this point. Dubinsky is worth over 8% of the cap limit, and I would say Kadri is okay at about 7.5%, which is where the $5.1M number comes from.

 

[Leafsman]

Kadri as an RFA is about $4M, that's for one season, and then he will be about $5.1M during his UFA years.

A great comparable for his UFA years is Dubinsky, whose new contract starts this year and carries a $5.85M cap-hit. He's better established than Kadri, but both have similar styles and ceiling at this point. Dubinsky is worth over 8% of the cap limit, and I would say Kadri is okay at about 7.5%, which is where the $5.1M number comes from.

So talking a multi-year deal at $4.6 - $4.75M wouldn't be out of the question on a 2/3 year deal.

I wonder if the behavioral incidents from last year could hinder Kadri during arbitration?? It is fair to compare his on-ice production to other players in regards to comparable salaries but what about his off-ice behavior? Arbitrator may discount his salary comparable to a similar RFA who has a clean off-ice record.

 

[deletethis]

Kadri and Bernier are both at the state where they still seem just as likely to regress as improve. Both need to prove consistency of value to earn longer deals. Both should be short contracts that either take them to unrestricted free agency or close to it. Giving either lucrative long term deals would just be repeating the mistakes of the past of treating good players like great players.

Rielly hasn't been through any downs yet in his young career. That doesn't mean he won't. The Leafs love his training work ethic. Barring injury a long term deal is most likely to be a good investment in this player.

 

[indigobuffalo]

So talking a multi-year deal at $4.6 - $4.75M wouldn't be out of the question on a 2/3 year deal.

I wonder if the behavioral incidents from last year could hinder Kadri during arbitration?? It is fair to compare his on-ice production to other players in regards to comparable salaries but what about his off-ice behavior? Arbitrator may discount his salary comparable to a similar RFA who has a clean off-ice record.

From here:

The evidence that can be used in arbitration cases:
The player's "overall performance" including statistics in all previous seasons.
Injuries, illnesses and the number of games played.
The player's length of service with the team and in the NHL.
The player's "overall contribution" to the team's success or failure.
The player's "special qualities of leadership or public appeal."
The performance and salary of any player alleged to be "comparable" to the player in the dispute.

Evidence that is not admissible:
The salary and performance of a "comparable" player who signed a contract as an unrestricted free agent.
Testimonials, video and media reports.
The financial state of the team.
The salary cap and the state of the team's payroll.

 

[ConnorTO]

bridging subban was pretty stupid

cause he later bankrupted em

 

[tml19]

If the managment believes Kadri will improve a lot to a high level I would prefer them to take a risk and sign him to a 5/5 deal or something along those lines. It gives them a very good contract if it panes out and if it does not they are only overpaying by 1m for what he currently is worth IMO

 

[Reddaye]

Management needs to be wary of who they drop the big money for. We need to have our most valuable core players be the ones locked up to larger deals with longer term, and adjust the pay of others based on that.

The biggest problem right now is identifying who these core players will be, and not overpay on ones who end up not making the grade. We're so early into this process that we can't afford to tie our hands handing out big money to people who may very well become supporting players once our next generation matures and makes the jump.

Kadri is the one who I feel like will be the poster boy for this. A #2C who still has a lot to prove, is young and likely part of the future, but probably not one of the core four or so guys that the team is built around. There's considerable risk here because as of now he's one of our best young players, but four years down the line could be surpassed at the #2C position, and then we've created a possible logjam.

He'll need to be signed to something that doesn't cripple our cap, and makes him potentially trade-able down the line if they decide to move him. This will likely mean a bridge deal, but as well know those can be very, very sticky down the line when his next contract is up. There's no guarantee we'll ever acquire a #2C that will be better than what Kadri will become, but anything can happen and I'd hate to see us handcuffed.

Long story short: I hope they don't hand out big money to just anyone before we can identify who our core four or so players will be (likely Nylander, and Marner will be in this group, but who knows for sure?). A core that SHOULD involve our #1C and #1D at the very least (and ACTUAL players capable of being in this position, not just guys we force there since we have no better options. This is the time where we should be gathering up the correct options for these positions).

That's my two cents anyway.