Creating a New Financial Structure with the Leafs: Kadri, Bernier Rielly, and Beyond

[Daisy Jane]

As of July 2nd 2015, the Toronto Maple Leafs highest paid player is:
Nathan Horton. Let's just take that in.

In this summer of 'change' and the building (I refuse to use the words now rebuild (because we never started building in the first place) or hybrid rebuilding (because that's just something to make people's jimmie's rustled), of a new Toronto Maple Leafs, a new financial dichotomy is going to be created, and I think Pirdham + Shanahan really have to be careful here.

Dave Nonis and Claude Loiselle, pretty much buggered up the cap. I think we can all agree with it, because it wasn't just the cap/contract of Kessel. (market value for the talent), or Phaneuf (arguably somewhat overpaid - but overpaid with his previous contract). But it was everyone else after him. that had everything out of sorts.

What the Leafs - have to do now. is identify who the future core is. And as I've been stating, it doesn't automatically mean whomever is under 25 here is part of it. We have to expect some turnaround from those sub-25, some of the prospects filtered out of here. (Chicago had a massive turnaround between 2003 and 2007, and again from 2007 to 2010. Tampa only has 2 people on the roster from when Stamkos was drafted).

This impacts the future contracts of Nazem Kadri, Jonathan Bernier and Morgan Rielly.

KADRI
Do you bridge Nazem Kadri: who in 2 years, will still be a RFA (as he will not have accumulated 7 NHL seasons, burned a year early of UFA, or will be 27 by the end of a 2 year contract).

My arguments have been consistent. I would personally bridge Kadri one more time. In the beginning stages of a building project, I do not think Kadri needs to have a lot of term, nor a lot of money. He has hit 50 points in his career, but as people have stated as of yet - Kadri is not athletic enough to be a number 1 centre as he is weak in acceleration, skating and his shot. This is not to diminish his potential, or his statistical numbers (which we know the Leafs will be taking into account with all players).

Ideally, you would want Kadri affordable enough that if he needs to be traded, his contract is easy enough to move. If he exceeds expectations, you can pay again before he is a UFA (and with the Leafs situation, I do not think they'd care if anyone actually missed camp). if there is another Kadri/Grabvoski situation - (someone supplements Kadri on the 2nd/1st line) that Kadri's cash dollars and out put match wherever he is.

As Lupul (5.25) and Bozak (4.2) are being shipped out eventually, his only cost comparative on the team would be James Van Reimsdyk at (4.25). Any agent would argue he is better serving than Leo Komarov at 2.95. Kadri currently earns 2.9 at the end of this season, and is required to have a 10% league mandated raise.


BERNIER
The goalie market is a weird place, and there tends to be musical chairs throughout the league every few years. Regardless if you believe that Bernier is the goalie of the future or not, the question needs to be asked: does it behoove the Leafs to lock in a goalie for X amount of Years, as we have seen a lot of goalies of freakisly good/bad/in between years before the merry-go-round starts all over again.

This will also have to come with regards of: how good are our goalie prospects now - and who will we be able to get later).

Bernier currently earns 2.9 million dollars, but he will be a UFA by the end of the contract. I am not certain how I would structure this contract to be, but again, I think the Leafs would be better not to commit too much term or money to a goaltending position. How may UFA years do you buy (3?) and see how he benefits from a Babcock system?

RIELLY
Rielly's ELC contract ends next year,which will put him in a situation of do we Bridge him, or do we give him a long contract? Rielly will be a UFA at the age of 26, I do believe (if I read that wrong, I apologise). I would argue as of Today - Rielly is the Leafs best defensive prospect and whom the team wants to build around Period. So his contract I believe will impact how the rest of the prospect class slides around him.

Rielly's contract, I think are impacted by three people:
Dion Phaneuf (who could be traded by the end of the year),
Jake Gardiner (currently earning 4.05 for another 4 years) and
Nazem Kadri (though forwards/defensemen aren't paid on the same scale, I do think they will run parallel to each other in regards of being potential building blocks).


With a lot of lesser/tradeable talent making less than 3 million dollars, this summer will set the standard for the youngins on the Leafs.

How would you price and slot these players? Do you consider the future potent of the 2014/2015 draft class? Do we try to have everyone making sub 4.5 so the dollars/term is tradeable?

I just find this interesting because i think once you identify who your core players are - you want to ensure that they are your highest paid (and there is no doubt or question) and everyone else slides behind them, which will also set us nicely for things like RFAs that we may be able to steal (ie a Saad situation), or a UFA situation (ie: avoiding a Clarkson situation).

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[Bernier the Boats]

Marner/Nylander/Rielly are all just amazing. Marner's name will hang from the rafters when he retires, and the other 2 will be 1st line/1st pairing players respectively. That "troika" will be our core, with maybe 1 more member added from 2016.

As for the rest of the "core", it won't be all young guys under 25. All the Stanley cup winners have good veteran players as well. Phaneuf, JvR, Kadri, Gardiner, and Bernier could all possibly fall in this secondary core when the Leafs challenge for the cup in 4 years. Also, prospects like Bracco, Dermott, Brown, and Kapanen all have a shot to join this secondary core.

We are in great shape. No reason to sell-off all our players older than 25 like they have an expiry date (except Bozak and Lupul, you've both expired).

 

[TheCLAM]

Lol correct me if I'm wrong but pretty sure Phaneuf is our high paid player by cap-hit

 

[Mckay]

Lol correct me if I'm wrong but pretty sure Phaneuf is our high paid player by cap-hit

Yeah. Horton is highest paid forward.

 

[BlueBaron]

A very thought provoking post. I agree pretty much with all you have said.

Kadri: I would give him 2 years at 3.2 Mil (that's his 10% raise) to chart his own destiny on the team. if he can take ownership of the #2 C spot and fits well into Babcock's system we'll go from there. If not, we will find him a better fit elsewhere.

Bernier: I'm not sure. I really like Bernier but I also know he wants term. I don't see giving him a 4 or 5 year deal at 4+Mil so I guess I would try a shorter deal with him, maybe 1 year at 3-3.5 ? Really not sure about him. He still needs to prove himself but I think he is a keeper.

Rielly: I would like to lock him up 8 years at 4.5 but I suspect he will want a bridge deal. If so a couple years at 3.5ish would be nice.

 

[Guided by Veseys]

Kadri: I would give him 2 years at 3.2 Mil (that's his 10% raise) to chart his own destiny on the team. if he can take ownership of the #2 C spot and fits well into Babcock's system we'll go from there. If not, we will find him a better fit elsewhere.

it would be nice to pay him that much but it would never happen. It would be entirely disrespectful to try and sign him at a 10% raise and he would understandably hold out until traded to any number of teams that would pay him more. Probably 4-5 in a bridge deal.

 

[BlueBaron]

it would be nice to pay him that much but it would never happen. It would be entirely disrespectful to try and sign him at a 10% raise and he would understandably hold out until traded to any number of teams that would pay him more. Probably 4-5 in a bridge deal.

I have to disagree. I am of the mind his numbers do not justify that kind of money, especially for an RFA. Let him hold out, maybe it will cost us a few points which is good right now. He has no leverage.

I could be wrong, but then again, I could be right.

 

[Leafsman]

Am I the only one growing indifferent with Kadri?

I like him and all but with this team that's just not enough anymore. I will quickly become okay with people being traded. I liked Kessel a great deal but am a fan of the deal even more.


Bridge Kadri to his UFA availability and if he doesn;t strat performing to expectations, it's time to cut the umbilical cord and move. Trade him at TD and grab assets

 

[hamzarocks]

i would lock up kadri fron anywhere between 6 years to full max in 8 and offer him term so he would take less cash. Id try to sign him from anywhere from 4.75 to 5.5 max with those long term deals. I believe he will be a piece of the core and will be a essential part of the team moving forward, he should be either our number 2 line center capable of 55 plus points with a strong two way game(ROR) or play 2nd line wing for us.

With bernier i would sign him to 3 year deal worth 4.5 million. This gives him cash and allows us to see what he can do under us for the next 3 years when we wont be competing. If he outs up nice stats and helps steals us games(Like Schneider) i sign him long term after that to a 6 year deal worth 6 million.

I would resign rielly long term. If he want long term i do as well. He will be the face of the franchise moving forward(along with marner, and maybe nylander). He is essential to our team and i would sign him to a 8 year deal worth anywhere from 4.5 to 6.25 million depending on how he produces next year and if he is willing to take some money off to play in Toronto for the next 8 years.

All 3 of them are going to be important for the short term future, and i believe that rielly is guaranteed to be part of the long term future, and kadri and Bernier should be as well.

 

[garce]

Kadri 2 years between 8 and 9, reevaluate next summer after he has a chance to take centre stage for a year.
Bernier 2 years @ 7 or 5 years @ 20. His choice.
Rielly is really tricky and I'm tempted to try for the long contract early like Karlssons but it will be more clear this time next year.

 

[Sonny21]

Our overall pay scale needs to be adjusted accordingly going forward compared to other elite teams and their pay structure.

Like you said Daisy, it hasn't been Kessel contract that's been bringing us down, it's been overpaying 2nd tier talent! Elite teams are very good not doing that for the most part.

That's why drafting is so key! You lock up your Toews/Kane/Keith and replace 2nd tier players via draft on ELC instead of overpaying them. That's the approach and mind set Leafs need to have.

 

[Daisy Jane]

Lol correct me if I'm wrong but pretty sure Phaneuf is our high paid player by cap-hit

He is. I meant to say forward. Phaneuf is our highest paid player on defense.

As for the rest of the "core", it won't be all young guys under 25. All the Stanley cup winners have good veteran players as well. Phaneuf, JvR, Kadri, Gardiner, and Bernier could all possibly fall in this secondary core when the Leafs challenge for the cup in 4 years. Also, prospects like Bracco, Dermott, Brown, and Kapanen all have a shot to join this secondary core.

We are in great shape. No reason to sell-off all our players older than 25 like they have an expiry date (except Bozak and Lupul, you've both expired).

Agreed. However - unlike Chicago (who can take advantage of back-diving contracts). even the older players should be slotted financially that if it's time to move past them we can get other (effective) older support that doesn't skew the dichotomy created. What I'm talking about, where as Nonis and Loiselle basically gave everyone no trades/moves, and lots of dollars and term, we need to be very judicious about who gets them (ie: core). how the future would potentially slot behind them, and any UFA wouldn't get more than the core, allowing us to remain competitive in all areas (RFA stealing UFA signings and qualifications of future RFAs).

I have to disagree. I am of the mind his numbers do not justify that kind of money, especially for an RFA. Let him hold out, maybe it will cost us a few points which is good right now. He has no leverage.

I could be wrong, but then again, I could be right.

No, i agree with you, in regards to your statement of Kadri

i would bridge him, then consider buying ufa years later. (and I would be fine if he sat our, regardless of what we wanted to do this year or not )

 

[showtime8]

IMO, it's too early to determine what the pay structure should be.

All 3 players should be on bridge deals and all for different reasons.

Kadri should be on a bridge deal because you don't know what you're going to get out of him when he has a lot more responsibilities.

Rielly has a bright future, but what does Morgan's camp want to do with it? They know that Toronto has the cap room to make him a huge offer. They hold the power in this bargaining situation and will likely change based on how he performs this year.

Bernier is a quality goaltender. You can't blame him for the support in front of him last season. The only knock that I would give to him is that his focus would dip throughout the game. The contract situation is tough. The question is, how long does it take for one of the prospect goalies to be fully ready to take the job?

My guess is, Kadri comes in a 2 years, 3.8 mill. Rielly at 4 years at 4.75 & Bernier 4 years at 4.25.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I have to disagree. I am of the mind his numbers do not justify that kind of money, especially for an RFA. Let him hold out, maybe it will cost us a few points which is good right now. He has no leverage.

I could be wrong, but then again, I could be right.

Which numbers are those? Isn't it true that according to analytics, every single forward on the team shows improvement when they play with Kadri?

I agree with the post above you - offering Kadri a 10% raise would indeed be insulting. I would add that justifying this with "he has no leverage" and "it may cost us a few points but that's good for us" sets a really bad tone, I really hope that's not the way we plan to roll.

 

[Daisy Jane]

Which numbers are those? Isn't it true that according to analytics, every single forward on the team shows improvement when they play with Kadri?

I agree with the post above you - offering Kadri a 10% raise would indeed be insulting. I would add that justifying this with "he has no leverage" and "it may cost us a few points but that's good for us" sets a really bad tone, I really hope that's not the way we plan to roll.

yup that is true from everything that I've read, so that is a boone in his favour.
I always have to preface everything financial with - I am very, very stingy so I would give everyone the mandated 10% raise, and be all like, see you later

 

[Rare Jewel]

IMO, it's too early to determine what the pay structure should be.

All 3 players should be on bridge deals and all for different reasons.

Kadri should be on a bridge deal because you don't know what you're going to get out of him when he has a lot more responsibilities.

Rielly has a bright future, but what does Morgan's camp want to do with it? They know that Toronto has the cap room to make him a huge offer. They hold the power in this bargaining situation and will likely change based on how he performs this year.

Bernier is a quality goaltender. You can't blame him for the support in front of him last season. The only knock that I would give to him is that his focus would dip throughout the game. The contract situation is tough. The question is, how long does it take for one of the prospect goalies to be fully ready to take the job?

My guess is, Kadri comes in a 2 years, 3.8 mill. Rielly at 4 years at 4.75 & Bernier 4 years at 4.25.

I would agree with a lot of this.

Kadri on a bridge contract in the high 3's for an AAV.

I think Bernier will make more than that though based of some other comparable contracts around the league. Probably looking at low 5's for him.


I wouldn't be apposed to a bridge with Morgan, But you could do Gardiner type of deal, Then hopefully you could avoid a similar issue Montreal had with Subban. If he get's more than 30 points next year and is playing top minutes, He's probably going get more than Gardiner on a 2 year bridge deal even. So would it be better just to give something like a 5.25 for 6 years and hope it ends up looking like a bargain a year or two after?

It'll be interesting to see how they go about his contract especially because that could be the first indication of the pay structure going forward.

 

[Daisy Jane]

I would agree with a lot of this.

Kadri on a bridge contract in the high 3's for an AAV.

I think Bernier will make more than that though based of some other comparable contracts around the league. Probably looking at low 5's for him.


I wouldn't be apposed to a bridge with Morgan, But you could do Gardiner type of deal, Then hopefully you could avoid a similar issue Montreal had with Subban. If he get's more than 30 points next year and is playing top minutes, He's probably going get more than Gardiner on a 2 year bridge deal even. So would it be better just to give something like a 5.25 for 6 years and hope it ends up looking like a bargain a year or two after?

I don't think it is too early to think of the structure of payment at all. I think more than ever, (regardless if it rises or not) you don't want to have a situation where you are overpaying for the 2nd tier talent (and I will stress this right now - I am not saying Kadri, or anyone else is 2nd tier talent - but at the same time, they should not be paid like overall elite talent (on 2nd contracts, or third contracts, either).

For example: Whatever path Rielly goes: say it is structured that it is a bridge, then a long term (right before UFA), then structured that you purchase UFA years - any defensive prospect that comes up that is just as good (or can even potentially threaten to be better than Rielly) has the path laid out for them. You can expect a 2 year, a bridge, and then what not. (give or take a year or two).

and so on, and so forth down the line. Rather than being all willy nilly with the funds

 

[Pyromaniac3]

I don't think any goalie except a goalie with resume like Price or Lundqvist should get a longterm deal. Max 3 years regardless of wether we are rebuilding or contending.

I would try to sign Kadri to a 4yr deal around 4.5-5M. This is likely the year when Nylander and Marner will be RFA. Perfect time to either deal Kadri or resign him accordingly.

Rielly should be signed to a bridge deal of around 2-3 years. If we try to give him Gardiner contract, I think we would suffer once it expires. He would likely command 8-9M at the conclusion of the contract. Ideally, Rielly would sign a 2-3yr bridge deal, get a 5-6 year contract around 6M, which I would hope is a steal after first 2 years of the contract.

 

[The CyNick]

Kadri and Bernier should not be locked up long term (ie 5 yrs plus). Neither guy has proven they deserve such a deal. So whats the rush? Why get tied into long term deals with mediocre players?

 

[GordieHoweHatTrick]

Am I the only one growing indifferent with Kadri?

I like him and all but with this team that's just not enough anymore. I will quickly become okay with people being traded. I liked Kessel a great deal but am a fan of the deal even more.


Bridge Kadri to his UFA availability and if he doesn;t strat performing to expectations, it's time to cut the umbilical cord and move. Trade him at TD and grab assets

I was beginning to grow indifferent on Kadri but was reminded he's still only 24. I'm not expecting him to put up 70+ points but if he can continue to add bulk through his 20s and win faceoffs then he'll be a good one. Love his tenacity when he's on.

Agree that he should be on a bridge deal though. He still needs to prove he can be consistent, and that will only be possible with a commitment to the game for which he's been called out on.

 

[Menzinger]

If prefer to lock up a couple of Kadri's UFAyears. Likely costing something in the 5-5.5 range. Yes, perhaps a slight overpayment now, but you have to pay for potential.

 

[Diatomic]

I'd sign kadri 4 mil for 4 years. Could be a huge steal

 

[Mitchy]

I would sign Kadri long term. 6 years, up to 5M per. It's a bit of a gamble, but could pay off big time. Eats up some ufa years too.

I would also sign Bernier long term. In the range 5 years, 4M per or 4 years, 4.5M per.

I would sign Rielly to a bridge deal. Then, after the bridge deal ends, give him a max (8 years) contract.

 

[BlueBaron]

Which numbers are those? Isn't it true that according to analytics, every single forward on the team shows improvement when they play with Kadri?

I agree with the post above you - offering Kadri a 10% raise would indeed be insulting. I would add that justifying this with "he has no leverage" and "it may cost us a few points but that's good for us" sets a really bad tone, I really hope that's not the way we plan to roll.

I suppose we have a different value for a player who has had 39 points and 50 points his past two seasons. Our whole problem is we overpay guys like this and never play hard ball, and that has caused the original cap issues. It's not what we pay our stars, it's that we overpay average players.

Chicago paid their 2nd line C 2 mil last year , a guy named Brad Richards. Now granted he took a discount to try for a cup but still, they paid him a reasonable amount, not first line forward/elite second line money. We need to learn this lesson.

I suspect some of you are remembering Kadri's shortened season near point a game pace and viewing him as that kind of player, which granted he may have the potential to duplicate over a full season, but he has never done this.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

Elite teams play players that perform great analytically speaking.

Some of these Leafs fans have gotten too over-sensitive in paying players, when analytics have shown that those players DESERVED NOT to get paid. Kadri has shown time and time again that he's outperformed our expectations (Analytics prove this as well). However, Leafs fans continue to ignore and think that he does not do enough. I mean, for gods sake, he played the top competition last year, playing beside offensively challenged players in Clarkson, Booth, Winnik, Panik, was league-average in faceoffs, had the MOST points at 5v5 of all centers on team, 2 points behind Kessel even strength, YET Leafs fans still expect him to the unbelievable and produce 70 pts.

Heck, even 55 points is way out of reason. Why? 1) Plays with Clarkson/Winnik/Panik calibre players 2) No extra 15-20 points (easily) on PP 3) Plays in defensive situations, rather than offensive situations

If you expect him ONLY to produce points, then hey go ahead and fix the three problems I listed. Don't attempt to say he hasn't earned anything, when time and time again he has raised himself to be excellent. He's only 24 as well.

Last year was just an example of that. Many of you may have noticed, but some have not. He sacrificed his offnesive play for defense/possession. He turned out to be trusted for the hardest situations on the team. Yet, we then turned to blame him for his lack of points?

I'd pay him 5 mill per 5 years.