Craig Button's December Rankings for the 2019 Draft

[FreeBobbyFarnham]

Isn't Legare a bit low?

 

[kabidjan18]

I liked October more...but I'm warming up to Zegras for sure.

 

[tony d]

Krebs, Newhook, Turcotte are all top 10 talents to me in this draft IMO, way to low ranks for all of them on this list.

 

[Zine]

He isn’t a fan of Dorofeev, I guess.

Bychkov, Chistyakov, Mironov, Firstov, Afanasyev, Abramov make his list but no Dorofeyev or Spiridonov?

 

[mphmiles]

I wonder what is lacking in Bobby Brink's skillset that prevents him from climbing up to the top 15. He is producing at a very high rate, is he viewed as a by product of Pospisil?

Probably sample size, mostly. He made a decent jump and if he keeps producing at his current clip this season he'll jump up another several spots.

 

[93LEAFS]

I wonder what is lacking in Bobby Brink's skillset that prevents him from climbing up to the top 15. He is producing at a very high rate, is he viewed as a by product of Pospisil?

Hard for smaller guys to jump up to the top of the draft unless they are truly elite players like Marner or Keller. It may be unfair, but the expectation for those guys to go in that range is elite abilities in creating separation, avoiding hits, and high-end IQ. He's also coming from high-school hockey, so its a smaller sample size before scouts are probably comfortable bumping him up into that range.

 

[UNITEDSTATESOFHOCKEY]

I wonder what is lacking in Bobby Brink's skillset that prevents him from climbing up to the top 15. He is producing at a very high rate, is he viewed as a by product of Pospisil?

Nothing, is only December, he very well might get there

 

[vanarchy]

Interesting names this year.

I know it's kind of off topic but it's kind of refreshing from the Patrick White/Robert Thomas/Logan Browns lol.

 

[Frk It]

Hard for smaller guys to jump up to the top of the draft unless they are truly elite players like Marner or Keller. It may be unfair, but the expectation for those guys to go in that range is elite abilities in creating separation, avoiding hits, and high-end IQ. He's also coming from high-school hockey, so its a smaller sample size before scouts are probably comfortable bumping him up into that range.

This just feels outdated to me.

I almost look at it the opposite way, unless the undersized + super productive player has a glaring weakness... I don’t know why we are so scared to rank them highly.

We have seen this with enough guys at this point to where I don’t get why we have to set the bar at Marner/Keller. I mean look at Marchand, Point, Trochek, DeBrincat, etc. Those guys didn’t flash as much as Marner or Keller in their draft years, but they were all productive, and look at them now.

 

[93LEAFS]

This just feels outdated to me.

I almost look at it the opposite way, unless the undersized + super productive player has a glaring weakness... I don’t know why we are so scared to rank them highly.

We have seen this with enough guys at this point to where I don’t get why we have to set the bar at Marnee/Keller. I mean look at Marchand, Point, Trochek, DeBrincat, etc. Those guys didn’t flash as much ability as Marner or Keller in their draft years, but they were all productive, and look at them now.

Marchand was a sub-PPG player in his draft year, so was Trocheck. They weren't super-productive until post-draft. You can find a bunch of guys with their production in their draft year who amount to nothing. That's like me taking big guys who didn't have great numbers and hit and use them as examples on why you should go big (for example Jamie Benn).

You have a point with Point and Debrincat (and could add Gaudreau). But, you can always find counterexamples such as Rocco Grimaldi, Jordan Weal, Jeremy Bracco, Joey Hishon, Timoshov, and Nic Petan. Nick Merkley could be grouped but their issues have mostly been injury related.

Button is one of the guys who ranks small guys higher than usual along with Pronman. The issue with smaller guys, is most have to be high-end to fill a certain role high-up in the line-up. They don't provide as much of a safety net. Which is why you generally will only see very high-end smaller players crack the top 10 in the draft like Marner, Keller, and Ehlers.

 

[Frk It]

Marchand was a sub-PPG player in his draft year, so was Trocheck. They weren't super-productive until post-draft. You can find a bunch of guys with their production in their draft year who amount to nothing. That's like me taking big guys who didn't have great numbers and hit and use them as examples on why you should go big (for example Jamie Benn).

You have a point with Point and Debrincat (and could add Gaudreau). But, you can always find counterexamples such as Rocco Grimaldi, Jordan Weal, Jeremy Bracco, Joey Hishon, Timoshov, and Nic Petan. Nick Merkley could be grouped but their issues have mostly been injury related.

Button is one of the guys who ranks small guys higher than usual along with Pronman. The issue with smaller guys, is most have to be high-end to fill a certain role high-up in the line-up. They don't provide as much of a safety net. Which is why you generally will only see very high-end smaller players crack the top 10 in the draft like Marner, Keller, and Ehlers.

Yeah, I’m not saying we should go crazy with it... but I feel like maybe we should entertain the idea a little more?

I don’t know, it feels weird to me we seem less willing to bet on a productive guy staying productive as opposed to a lesser productive guy becoming productive all of a sudden.

We have also seen a lot of big guys with tools and no toolbox fail over the years as well.

 

[93LEAFS]

Yeah, I’m not saying we should go crazy with it... but I feel like maybe we should entertain the idea a little more?

I don’t know, it feels weird to me we seem less willing to bet on a productive guy staying productive as opposed to a lesser productive guy becoming productive all of a sudden.

We have also seen a lot of big guys with tools and no toolbox fail over the years as well.

I think we have started to see a shift, just not as aggressive as you would like in the past 3 to 4 years. Yamamoto is probably a 2nd rounder in most years, a 5'7 guy without elite skating like Debrincat may slip to the 3rd or 4th. Guys like Point and Gaudreau have created a disruption in how smaller players are scouted and valued. It is just in the very high draft slots in the top 10, people are still going to be a bit conservative. Undersized guys need to really wow you to get in that range. You want them to not only be productive but be able to consistently avoid hard hits, have the puck on a string, and have high IQ.

Very rarely are there any guys in the top 10 who aren't highly productive though, unless they are euro's playing in men's league. I'd agree with avoiding the Virtanen's, Zacha's, Crouse's, etc that high or the defensive defenceman who seem offensively inept (Schenn, Gudbranson, McIlrath). The league seems to be correcting itself on those types of moves. We didn't really see anyone fitting those narratives going top 10 last year outside of the people who tried to push the Brady Tkachuk narrative. 2017 didn't really have any guys who were unproductive go in the top 10 except for people questioning the nature of Michael Rasmussen's production. The same applies to 2015.

Now, 11-15 is a bit of a soft spot where you start to see it creep in, but even then it is not really that noticeable. The guy in last years draft who was taken in the top 15 with the easiest production level to question was Denisenko, who was a smaller sized prospect.

 

[tigervixxxen]

He isn’t a fan of Dorofeev, I guess.

I going to bet he hasn't seen Dorofeyev

 

[TheWhiskeyThief]

Yup. He did the same with Boqvist who he had over Svechnikov for almost the entire year until the end. Boqvist > Broberg obviously but the same idea.

Broberg can actually defend, but I wouldn’t rate him in the top 20, let alone top 10 because he doesn’t show enough added value. I would say that of most D bar Dahlin, who could D up like a boss *and* generate offense agains boys and men beyond his years. Boqvist couldn’t defend at all, but at least there was 70’ offensive upside that people could make an argument for.

I would make the argument that asides from a true top pair D, I can get 90% of a 2nd pair D in the 5th rd compared to a 16-46 player if I just put them on their off hand and give the green light to shoot.

 

[Daximus]

Hes going to ride Brobergs international games right to the end I feel. Button overvalues international play so heavily year after year. He might make an adjustment at the end but I feel he will still have him top 10.

 

[Beesfan]

Was hoping the Bruins could get Pelletier around 20-24. Is that at all realistic anymore?

 

[Field of Dreams]

This year is unreal for chel names.

Connor McMichael
Hunter Jones
Marshall Warren
Jordan Spence
Thomas Harley
Spencer Knight

How can you not make the show with a name like Hunter Jones. Now, while it's true we don't have any generational chel names like Blade Jenkins, there is some serious depth in the first round.

Edit - this is just my analysis of the first round, I will revisit after I look for hidden gems.

 

[LetsGoBLUES91]

Taking a look at where the Blues would draft currently, do you guys prefer Cozens or Dach? Is that a million dollar question?

 

[chewbaccaman]

Taking a look at where the Blues would draft currently, do you guys prefer Cozens or Dach? Is that a million dollar question?

Dach had a strong start to the season but Cozens has really turned it on lately. I think Cozens is the better pick. More fluid skating mechanics and speed and he's got a much better shot.

 

[Gabrielor]

Turcotte and Newhook should both go in the top 10, and likely will.

 

[Tryamkin]

Was hoping the Bruins could get Pelletier around 20-24. Is that at all realistic anymore?

Potentially still a chance. Pelletier is still 5'9 and teams could pass up on him with a lottery pick. Moncton is a stacked team as well so overager teammates will be taken into account as well.

 

[Tube Skates]

Potentially still a chance. Pelletier is still 5'9 and teams could pass up on him with a lottery pick. Moncton is a stacked team as well so overager teammates will be taken into account as well.

I watch a lot of Q games and Pelletier looks and plays a lot bigger than 5’9”. This is a real shock to me. Kid is gonna be good

 

[Daximus]

Dach had a strong start to the season but Cozens has really turned it on lately. I think Cozens is the better pick. More fluid skating mechanics and speed and he's got a much better shot.

Depends on what your looking for. Cozens could end up being more of a winger, especially if teams want him to be a threat with his speed and shot. Dach is more of a playmaker who uses his size well and drives the net. Also hands good hands and vision. All depends on who you think projects as the better player and if you have a preference in play style.

 

[Patrik Barkov]

Lol at Honka almost in the third round

 

[FrankGallagher]

Podkolzin has been excellent this year, I wouldn't be surprised to see him go 3rd, even 2nd is possible.

People that watch hockey know this, people that watch stats don't.