Prospect Info: Coyotes @ The WJC 2020

[ParisSaintGermain]

For anyone who fell in a coma a month ago, firstly I hope you are better

Secondly you left the Coyotes with

- Kuemper on its way to a Vezina
- Jenik tearing it up in the CHL
- Coyotes rubbish at home
- Kessel with more hotdogs than goals
- Soderstrom not selected for Sweden Jr
- Hayton a healthy scratch for the Coyotes


So now

- Kuemper is injured.... Raanta also: 50/50 healthwise
- Jenik is out for the season

But wait

- Coyotes are on a home 3 games winning streak
- Kessel with slightly less hotdogs than goals
- Soderstrom with a bronze at the Worlds
- Hayton captained Canada for a world Jr Championships and an absolute protagonist throughout

Oh and SURPRISE

Chayka has traded for a player...................

 

[BUX7PHX]

Hayton - so skilled and smart, and he was able to make unique plays on the ice offensively.
Maccelli - clearly Finland’s best play driver and continued an impressive season.
Soderstrom - made some of the best offensive plays I saw from a defenseman, while also being steady defensively
Raty - much better at this event than I would have imagined when watching him last season with his club

As reference by the article's headline - standouts, surprises, and disappointments, the first 3 Coyotes were considered standouts, where Raty was in the "surprises" list.

For the record, I think Caufield was in the disappointment category.

 

[Sinurgy]

Lots of praise for our prospects Pronman: Standouts, surprises and disappointments from the...

Paywall

Hayton - so skilled and smart, and he was able to make unique plays on the ice offensively.
Maccelli - clearly Finland’s best play driver and continued an impressive season.
Soderstrom - made some of the best offensive plays I saw from a defenseman, while also being steady defensively
Raty - much better at this event than I would have imagined when watching him last season with his club

Thank you!

 

[hbk]

So when did Hayton get this shot? I watched a ton of him in the Soo and never did I think he was going to be known as a trigger guy on the PP. was this something he had been working on with AZ coaching staff?

 

[RemoAZ]

I just hope we see something positive with any kind of consistency when he comes back. He got plenty of chances to play in the top six here. Hopefully it was just a confidence thing and winning the gold along with being named captain gives him a boost that carries over here.

 

[hbk]

I just hope we see something positive with any kind of consistency when he comes back. He got plenty of chances to play in the top six here. Hopefully it was just a confidence thing and winning the gold along with being named captain gives him a boost that carries over here.

He will be sitting until he heals. He was back in Peterborough today apparently.

 

[SniperHF]

Lots of praise for our prospects Pronman: Standouts, surprises and disappointments from the...

Not that he's likely wrong or anything based on this tourney where our guys did play well(paywall, not reading it )
But Pronman really likes Chayka's style and so I tend to take his reads on Coyotes drafts/prospects as slightly biased

 

[rt]

Not that he's likely wrong or anything based on this tourney where our guys did play well(paywall, not reading it )
But Pronman really likes Chayka's style and so I tend to take his reads on Coyotes drafts/prospects as slightly biased

He was actually a very vocal critic of both the Hayton and Soderstrom selections. If you buy the membership (which you should, it’s better than ads) - you would see that he was so critical of Soderstrom that he actually lost a bet and just made a $50 donation to the Arizona Animal Welfare League on behalf of a Coyotes fan who challenged him.

Most of his praise for Coyotes prospects was intended to highlight how unfairly he criticized their selection back when Chayka took them.

So I disagree that Pronman has been a Chayka fan. I would actually insist that he be categorized as a huge Chayka critic that has been a hard fought, long-term convert that has demanded as much or more proof in the pudding as anyone out there.

 

[SniperHF]

He was actually a very vocal critic of both the Hayton and Soderstrom selections

I'm aware. He was very high about basically everything Chayka did prior to the Hayton pick. I think he's naturally disposed to agree with him and that he moves that way eventually does not surprise me even if his initial impressions are skeptical. It's good that he changes his mind, that's not a criticism necessarily. But he and Chayka share a lot of thought processes and I suspect that if Pronman had access to the type of scouting and data Chayka was using to make his picks, he would not have had that initial skepticism.
Which is probably true for a lot of us on the forum here. Hayton in particular did not seem like a Chayka pick at the outset, I think that lead to a lot of the WTFing around here too. Chayka's doing well as GM, so this isn't really bad. But I view it as like listening to a political op from one party critique his own side. There might be some substance there but in the end they come home.

 

[BUX7PHX]

I'm aware. He was very high about basically everything Chayka did prior to the Hayton pick. I think he's naturally disposed to agree with him and that he moves that way eventually does not surprise me even if his initial impressions are skeptical. It's good that he changes his mind, that's not a criticism necessarily. But he and Chayka share a lot of thought processes and I suspect that if Pronman had access to the type of scouting and data Chayka was using to make his picks, he would not have had that initial skepticism.
Which is probably true for a lot of us on the forum here. Hayton in particular did not seem like a Chayka pick at the outset, I think that lead to a lot of the WTFing around here too. Chayka's doing well as GM, so this isn't really bad. But I view it as like listening to a political op from one party critique his own side. There might be some substance there but in the end they come home.

Again, I think that speaks to the idea that he and the scouting staff, in identifying the draft eligible players for the year, have a very different viewpoint of how to assess video and combine the analytics into whom they think are the best picks at the time.

As an example, I probably watch video in a totally different way. When I saw some of Hayton's tape, I saw a player who was consistently in the right position. Didn't matter if the play was made or not made (most of the time, the play was made). Consistently in the right place and able to find and track the puck. As people around the team have said, he absorbs information like a sponge, and then puts it to use in practice situations.

Now, in junior tape, while I didn't see this abundant level of skill, I also think that Sault plays a non-flashy type of system, with solid results for draftees to become NHL players. So, there may have been abilities that he wasn't able to showcase in games, but at the very least, you knew you were getting what looks a pretty solid floor that can still be built on.

If anything, I would argue that more people should be skeptical - we gave him a GM job at the age of 27, right? Everyone can question it, but one also has to separate that there are trades, picks, and signings. Not every GM can be perfect in two, let alone three of those functions in a year, and yet, here he is, doing extremely well in terms of picks and trades (Hall/Soderberg). Signings is where the jury is out, because of the long term outlooks, but so far, the return on Schmaltz, Dvorak, and Chychrun look great. Keller is on pace for 59.6 points, so not terribly far off from a pace that should be in that $7.15 M range AAV (I think most people agreed that somewhere between 55 and 70 points would show meaningful progression on contract value, etc.). OEL is the only extension that looks "meh"

 

[Jakey53]

Again, I think that speaks to the idea that he and the scouting staff, in identifying the draft eligible players for the year, have a very different viewpoint of how to assess video and combine the analytics into whom they think are the best picks at the time.

As an example, I probably watch video in a totally different way. When I saw some of Hayton's tape, I saw a player who was consistently in the right position. Didn't matter if the play was made or not made (most of the time, the play was made). Consistently in the right place and able to find and track the puck. As people around the team have said, he absorbs information like a sponge, and then puts it to use in practice situations.

Now, in junior tape, while I didn't see this abundant level of skill, I also think that Sault plays a non-flashy type of system, with solid results for draftees to become NHL players. So, there may have been abilities that he wasn't able to showcase in games, but at the very least, you knew you were getting what looks a pretty solid floor that can still be built on.

If anything, I would argue that more people should be skeptical - we gave him a GM job at the age of 27, right? Everyone can question it, but one also has to separate that there are trades, picks, and signings. Not every GM can be perfect in two, let alone three of those functions in a year, and yet, here he is, doing extremely well in terms of picks and trades (Hall/Soderberg). Signings is where the jury is out, because of the long term outlooks, but so far, the return on Schmaltz, Dvorak, and Chychrun look great. Keller is on pace for 59.6 points, so not terribly far off from a pace that should be in that $7.15 M range AAV (I think most people agreed that somewhere between 55 and 70 points would show meaningful progression on contract value, etc.). OEL is the only extension that looks "meh"

Analytics, analytics and more analytics. I would venture to guess Chayka uses analytics more than any other GM in the league. The difference is he uses "his" analytics. I don't follow junior, so when the draft comes around I only know what I read, and I don't think anyone had Hayton at 5, or Soderstrom at 11, and if I'm not mistaken Chayka had Soderstrom much higher. Now we are starting to see what Chayka has seen in these two players. Also, when it comes to the eye test, I wonder if he puts as much emphasis on this as GM's in the past. Would like to find out how they evaluate a player.

 

[Jamieh]

It's an interesting discussion the smart and not smart for how you draft players. Right now we look at the pick of Hayton that everyone thought was early and we think Chayka was smarter than those who questioned the choice. I think we will continue to think Hayton was a good choice as his talent seems to be increasing but let's not forget either that Chayka picked him ahead of Hughes, I don't like the chances of that looking smart over time. And yes I'm aware of team need. Soderstrom is way to early to consider yet. And actually the Hayton pick might be as well but at least we can judge against a couple seasons.

 

[Jamieh]

Forgot to add I'm absolutely terrible at looking at young players and projecting growth. Hats off to those who are good at it.

 

[Jakey53]

It's an interesting discussion the smart and not smart for how you draft players. Right now we look at the pick of Hayton that everyone thought was early and we think Chayka was smarter than those who questioned the choice. I think we will continue to think Hayton was a good choice as his talent seems to be increasing but let's not forget either that Chayka picked him ahead of Hughes, I don't like the chances of that looking smart over time. And yes I'm aware of team need. Soderstrom is way to early to consider yet. And actually the Hayton pick might be as well but at least we can judge against a couple seasons.

I had Hughes ahead of Hayton, by a country mile, but was worried about his size.

 

[Jamieh]

I had Hughes ahead of Hayton, by a country mile.

How the heck did Detroit not pick Hughes??

 

[Jakey53]

How the heck did Detroit not pick Hughes??

Zadina is doing not bad now.

 

[Jamieh]

Zadina is doing not bad now.

But Hughes?? I'm bored so just looking back at least few drafts. Dal Colle goes 5th in 14, Perlini 12th, point in 3rd round, and Arviddson in 4th. Now we are tempted to say Tampa and Nashville are geniuses but dont forget they both picked multiple times passing on their future stars as well.

 

[MIGs Dog]

Forgot to add I'm absolutely terrible at looking at young players and projecting growth. Hats off to those who are good at it.

I don't think anyone is good at it consistently. The NHL drafts high school kids who are playing against high school kids (some held back a year or two ), and there are very few sure things...even if you are picking top 3 (don't we know it )

 

[hbk]

Chayka went all-in with his metrics and draft philosophy with the Hayton pick. He made a statement and I recall saying at the time that he would quickly be judged on the basis of this selection. Here we are a year and a half later and I’m not going to question our direction. Especially when you look at the other picks and how we almost instantaneously have a development system after a decade plus of being barely able to put together a top 10 draft list with a straight face. One that didn’t immediately go to future 4th liners by the 6th guy on the list.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

All I can say is this - I'm through jumping off of bridges in the HF Discord/IRC during draft day. Every time I've thought Chayka has screwed the pooch over the past couple of drafts, I've been proven not only wrong, but disastrously wrong. So I'm just going to convince myself to trust in Hockey Scut Farkus from now on.

 

[Jamieh]

Chayka went all-in with his metrics and draft philosophy with the Hayton pick. He made a statement and I recall saying at the time that he would quickly be judged on the basis of this selection. Here we are a year and a half later and I’m not going to question our direction. Especially when you look at the other picks and how we almost instantaneously have a development system after a decade plus of being barely able to put together a top 10 draft list with a straight face. One that didn’t immediately go to future 4th liners by the 6th guy on the list.

Yeah there is definitely not any debate on if the Coyote's have improved in pretty much every way in last few years. The ability to actually get mad on nights we are outplayed is still kinda odd for me. Not that many seasons ago we were trying to hold on to zero all night as that was our chance for a tie. And doing it poorly.

 

[hbk]

Yeah there is definitely not any debate on if the Coyote's have improved in pretty much every way in last few years. The ability to actually get mad on nights we are outplayed is still kinda odd for me. Not that many seasons ago we were trying to hold on to zero all night as that was our chance for a tie. And doing it poorly.

I’d also add this :

before this season do you remember the Yotes scoring any goals on the rush? All I remember is endless cycling and Vrbata in the shootouts.

 

[Jamieh]

I’d also add this :

before this season do you remember the Yotes scoring any goals on the rush? All I remember is endless cycling and Vrbata in the shootouts.

I was a season ticket holder for 5 or 6 years. You don't know the fortitude it took to stay for the 3rd some nights!!! I rarely attended games with teams who traveled well, the fans just made me too annoyed. Yeah we are far removed from that

 

[BUX7PHX]

Forgot to add I'm absolutely terrible at looking at young players and projecting growth. Hats off to those who are good at it.

I think that this is the most underrated part of Chayka's ability to this point.

Comments like "Where did Hayton's shot come from?" all of a sudden makes you wonder if this was something where Chayka could pinpoint areas on video where Hayton could get more power and in personal evaluations, he could see the concepts that were being coached being worked on. Some players hit their peak between the ages of 14 and 22 (maybe a Sean Day type). Some a little later. Some have years of staying power and some have very up and down or even mediocre careers. Being able to find players who have not hit their peak, but have more to work with is easier in the early picks. Get to rounds 3 and later, and that is where GMs earn their stripes.

I still think that there is one, maybe two bottom pairing defensemen that we were able to find out of the following: Emberson, Dineen, Callahan, Crotty, and Busby. I think Hoefenmeyer, Stewart, Karow, and Westerlund are all longshots. I think the first three of the 5 are the most likely ones to have that opportunity, as I am not certain if Crotty or Busby are likely to fill those roles, unless as very specialized stay at home D or PP specialist types.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

I was a season ticket holder for 5 or 6 years. You don't know the fortitude it took to stay for the 3rd some nights!!! I rarely attended games with teams who traveled well, the fans just made me too annoyed. Yeah we are far removed from that

We should have a reminisce thread from longtime STHs, looking back at things like games with 3,000 people, Scottsdale Red Wings fans vandalizing the bathrooms, anything involving Tyson Nash or Josh Gratton, the difference in hue in Gretzky's face when he yelled at the refs versus what it looked like on TV, etc.