Confirmed with Link: Coyotes hire Matt Perri and Lee Stempniak to Analytics Wing of Hockey Ops.
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BUX7PHX
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- Jul 7, 2011
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It is weird - after reading that, I saw a lot of what Chayka was doing in the same sense as what Perri is trying to do as well.
One item that I found interesting was the discussion on Dubois and Laine, and how someone had used a sample that implied Dubois > Laine, but when digging deeper, the conparative tape showed Dubois' sample was games against 16-18 yo players, whereas Laine was playing against men.
Wouldn't the same scenario apply here? The players that Armstrong is looking at now would probably be far different than if Armstrong were the GM in 2017. In 2017, maybe Armstrong never trades for Schmaltz, doesn't add Kuemper, or other items that happened along the way. We never had players sign long term between 22 and 25, but knowing that we have players like that locked up changes the approach.
The bottom line is exactly what Chayka said - analytics aren't an end-all, be-all that determines which player you are supposed to take. Analytics identifies where your success is and where the lack of success is. It may point a direction like changing the way you attack a team's defense, or areas of improvement for an individual. But it doesn't mean that we magically put info into a computer, and our draft list spits out players who are only good at the areas we are poor at. It just gives the notion of where improvement is needed, which could mean a specific player add, or just adding practice reps to get the team more comfortable with these areas.
One item that I found interesting was the discussion on Dubois and Laine, and how someone had used a sample that implied Dubois > Laine, but when digging deeper, the conparative tape showed Dubois' sample was games against 16-18 yo players, whereas Laine was playing against men.
Wouldn't the same scenario apply here? The players that Armstrong is looking at now would probably be far different than if Armstrong were the GM in 2017. In 2017, maybe Armstrong never trades for Schmaltz, doesn't add Kuemper, or other items that happened along the way. We never had players sign long term between 22 and 25, but knowing that we have players like that locked up changes the approach.
The bottom line is exactly what Chayka said - analytics aren't an end-all, be-all that determines which player you are supposed to take. Analytics identifies where your success is and where the lack of success is. It may point a direction like changing the way you attack a team's defense, or areas of improvement for an individual. But it doesn't mean that we magically put info into a computer, and our draft list spits out players who are only good at the areas we are poor at. It just gives the notion of where improvement is needed, which could mean a specific player add, or just adding practice reps to get the team more comfortable with these areas.
rt
The Kinder, Gentler Version
There's all kinds of different people in this world. But I feel like you must be the only John Chayka super-fan on earth. lol. I don't know you, but I do know that you are not a fickle man. Kudos.
BUX7PHX
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- Jul 7, 2011
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I see it as not every single transaction can always be a home run. Nor does the worst always happen. There are bound to be mistakes, just as Maloney had made some.
But regarding how the team got built, I 100% agree with using the draft to get as much talent as possible and using that talent to either continue with the team, or be used to obtain players that are needed to continue to build long-term. I have seen very little to be disappointed about in his draft picks, to be honest, and it looks like there are fewer concerns about how Soderstrom or Hayton have looked. Even some of the contracts that people complain over don't look terrible. The Keller deal is probably the only one that is stillna question mark.
Not necessarily that I am a super fan of the person, but a super fan of a lot of the methodologies. Even the Hall trade. It looks worse because of how poorly the team played, but if we were able to parlay that into the best player that we have had on the roster in a long time, a pick in the high teens, plus Bahl and another late 1st is a very small price to pay. Even as people believe that we would have been in trouble from the cap, I think the Stepan trade shows that we could have easily found ways to move players to still get under the ceiling. I would rather have the option of getting rid of so-so or negative EV deals because you have a more talented player on the roster already than to try and force an addition to so-so deals. Adding elite talent is hard. Losing dead weight is much easier.
RemoAZ
Let it burn
At the end of the 09*10 regular season after we acquired him, Lee Stempniak was as our Ovechkin: 18gp, 14g, 4a, 18pts. Those were some fun games until we lost to the Dead Wings 6-1 in game seven of the first round.
When Chayka was here, most thought he was doing a good job. It could have been a lot worse. He improved our scouting and drafting, which I guess was not hard to do, and had a few good deals. His biggest mistake, or one of them, was trading for Hall, as he tried to hurry the rebuild. Even then, he may have been pressured from AB. Even when this cheating scandal broke most were supporting Chayka, on this board anyways. Chayka downfall was his arrogance and inexperience. If there had been someone that he had to report to instead of giving him carte blanche, he may still be here. We know Meruelo liked him. I'm glad that we have BA, but we have to wait a few years to see if he was the right "guy" for the job.
That Hall deal was dumb. Sure it was fun watching him, but that kind of deal gets done when you think he is the missing piece for a SC. That is where Chayka miscalculated the talent on this team.
Love this Army quote:
“You might have a situation where your analytics guy goes through the waiver list and says, ‘You should claim this guy,’ and you look at him and say, ‘You don’t understand. That guy’s a dirtbag,” Armstrong said. “In an instant, your analytics guy has lost credibility with the entire staff.”
“You might have a situation where your analytics guy goes through the waiver list and says, ‘You should claim this guy,’ and you look at him and say, ‘You don’t understand. That guy’s a dirtbag,” Armstrong said. “In an instant, your analytics guy has lost credibility with the entire staff.”
- Oct 26, 2006
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I initially liked Chayka's signings and deals. Upon reflection, I've tried to figure out why - and then I realized it. His deals were the kinds of deals I do when I play Eastside Hockey Manager. In fact, the Raanta/Stepan deal was one I did myself playing the Coyotes GM in one of my EHM saves, which is likely why I was such a big fan of it at the time.
But over time and with hindsight, I realize what the critical issue is with the way I play a hockey management game and how John Chayka played as GM. See, unlike baseball, where data analysis and advanced statistics are a great way to find value in players because of the nature of the game, hockey is a visceral game, played as much with the gut and the heart as it is with the brain. So, so much of hockey is affected by human impulse, instinct, personality, and chemistry. In baseball, the most complex interaction between teammates is something like a relay throw from the outfield to start a double play. In hockey, every single interaction with the puck is a multi-person effort.
In EHM, it's easy to find good players and players with potential because the game boils everything down to set characteristics and personality values. There is very little randomness to it. Other hockey games have tried to change that, but with only limited success thus far. In EHM, I can dump Jason Demers' contract for a couple of late draft picks; the game decides that my owner and fans don't like it, but I know that with Demers at a -18 and playing poorly, it's addition by subtraction. In real life, though, Demers could be playing like crap, but his personality in the room might be the only thing keeping Conor Garland focused on his game (I'm saying this theoretically, of course).
Chayka never seemed to get that. He approached being a GM like the human element didn't exist - as if the players were commodities that were easily summed up in a one-sheet EHM-style player report. That's where I think he failed - everything he did looked good on paper (or on a screen - sorry, young folks!), but I question how much thought he put into intangibles.
rt
The Kinder, Gentler Version
When a guy says food is just fuel and he doesn’t care about eating, has picked the healthiest three meals in his opinion, and eats the same thing every day. When that same guy says he’s never had a beer. When there’s a guy like that, a cyborg, you can’t be surprised when he does stupid shit because he can’t figure out how human beings work.
It’s not surprising he fired Shane Doan before the coffee arrived at the restaurant. It’s not surprising he thought it would be okay to try to trick his bosses into letting him out of his contract if he got enough stuff in writing. It’s not surprising he thought he could get away with secret combines if he had the right loopholes lined up and figured he could rely on technicalities. Of course a guy like this only sees the letter of the law, rather than the spirit of the law. Of course a guy like his is disliked by his fellow GMs and can’t figure out how to get along.
The best engineer doesn’t make the best manager of engineers. The best programmer does not make the best manager of programmers. Chayka could fill an extremely valuable role for an NHL team, and perform extremely well, and really help that team out. But that role can’t be General Manager. He has to be Jonah Hill. He can’t be Brad Pitt. Chayka needs an office in the back room that stays locked.
Excellent points, he really was Computer Game Johnnie.
- Oct 26, 2006
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- 11,709
rt
The Kinder, Gentler Version
- Oct 26, 2006
- 18,654
- 11,709
I do like cheeseburgers.
I don't like pizza. I LOVE pizza. My veins might as well be made of mozzarella, filled with marinara rather than blood.
EDIT TO ADD: Since I brought up EHM, I should share that I won the Stanley Cup with the Coyotes in 2022 after firing Rick Tocchet and rebuilding the roster in my latest save.
BUX7PHX
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Were we or were we not in the top 2 of the Pacific?
I guarantee that 30 other GMs would jump at the chance to add a player of that caliber, whether SC contenders or not.
Plus, it was stated that we brought him in to get him long term. I think the reality is that any advancement beyond the 1st round would be icing on the cake, because if we win a series, it means Hall and other players elevated their games to put us on a faster track to becoming contenders.
_Del_
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- Jul 4, 2003
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Stemp and Stillman are both very well respected, well traveled pros. When BA has an all hands meeting, he wants guys that will vigorously argue their viewpoint and be fully capable of understanding as much of what others are putting down as possible.
I would like to see even more hires in this regard. Ray Whitney, Mike Sillinger, Derek Morris, Mike Modano etc... there are lots of guys out there that would kill to live in the valley and work for the team but also work hard for BA. Chayka could never really bring that out in people even if he tried, so he was overly reliant on 'smart' decisions to pick up the slack.
I think they've got a good pulse on the room based on the turnaround we've seen with Kessel, and the overall effort level. Ditching Stepan was not an easy call but it's one they arrived at, and not solely out of the desire to add a pick. I think this group will be very, very reluctant to drop someone like Tocchet. They'll try to mold him into a better coach first. I don't expect him to be fired unless this year goes very sideways.
I would like to see even more hires in this regard. Ray Whitney, Mike Sillinger, Derek Morris, Mike Modano etc... there are lots of guys out there that would kill to live in the valley and work for the team but also work hard for BA. Chayka could never really bring that out in people even if he tried, so he was overly reliant on 'smart' decisions to pick up the slack.
I think they've got a good pulse on the room based on the turnaround we've seen with Kessel, and the overall effort level. Ditching Stepan was not an easy call but it's one they arrived at, and not solely out of the desire to add a pick. I think this group will be very, very reluctant to drop someone like Tocchet. They'll try to mold him into a better coach first. I don't expect him to be fired unless this year goes very sideways.
rt
The Kinder, Gentler Version
If Tocchet has a come to jesus moment where he admits he has no degree of understanding when it comes to tactics, he can be taught. It's not that he's genuinely stupid. It's that he doesn't know any better because he never really had to lean into that role in the past, having never worked his way up the ranks. Whatever they are doing now is working and Tocchet isn't making the same stupid decisions during a game. The offensive system is obviously leagues better.
Tocchet has one thing going for him which is perhaps the hardest attribute to mint in a coach which is credibility and longevity. Because of his playing career and style, guys want to play for him. Even in the darkest depths of the past few years guys still generally kept their feet moving. It wasn't anything like the quitting I saw under Tippett or Gretzky.
Right now he's a blank canvas of very high quality. Chayka might have enabled his worst habits and he'll be better with someone like BA manning the post.
I just hope that if Varady/Stillman/BA are 95% responsible for the improvement this year, the 'rewards' will be handed out accordingly. I wouldn't extend Tocchet in that context. But only management will have a read on that angle, unless Tocchet goes out of his way to act stupid in postgame pressers and whatnot.
rt
The Kinder, Gentler Version
But there are candidates out there that aren't blank canvases, don't require extremely hands-on, lengthy OJT, and also have credibility. That's my point. His upside might be an above average NHL coach if you work hard enough and wait long enough. But you can have one right now. Just go get one.
Obviously I'm over simplifying a bit, but it's more or less true. Bruce Boudreau as an example. Maybe not the best example. But is one.
Tocchet as a project just strikes me as a high-to-medium risk(cost) with a low-to-medium reward. Just feels like a low-margin endeavor.
Boudreau seems to have a short shelf life despite excellent results. He doesn't really have any ties to the valley or history here. I don't care about that sort of thing but I get the impression that BA and his crew will value it.
If Chayka is a cyborg, you have to acknowledge Tocchet probably has best-in-league beer buddy ability. BA is familiar with and saw success with Berube and I think that will inform his decision making process. They will try to teach Tocchet before throwing him away. He skipped years in the minors and needs to get caught up.
It could be that Chayka created an environment that would have been toxic and unworkable to any coach, while simultaneously lacking the skills to 'check' his neophyte coach's bullshit (who also happened to have awful assistants). BA might figure he can clamp down on both sides and see what he has.
Tocchet has still lost a ton of games here, though. Extending him isn't a slam dunk or anything but if they see even moderate improvement I think it's a lock.
_Del_
Registered User
- Jul 4, 2003
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If they were going to fire him it would have happened quickly in the off-season. They are going to prop him up like weekend at Bernie's, and hopefully promote him out of the coaching staff this summer. You cannot have an incompetent figure head long-term, no matter how likeable. If nothing else, someone will poach Varady and whoever else is propping him up.
But whatever shifted behind the curtain has made a positive impact. Tocc hasn't even been a whiny # at the post-game. He's even called a few guys out instead of "I'm trying to keep positive energy" garbage game in and game out.
But whatever shifted behind the curtain has made a positive impact. Tocc hasn't even been a whiny # at the post-game. He's even called a few guys out instead of "I'm trying to keep positive energy" garbage game in and game out.
Prarievarg
On the hype lokomotiv
Good post. Only thing I'm really holding against chayka is the draft interview f*** ups and bailing.
BUX7PHX
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Same. I really want to know what was going on in the head of the individual who took measurements and tested players. I would have to assume that if Chayka gave the green light for that to happen, EVERY scout that we had would be doing the same thing, whether in US, Canada, or other countries. It seems like this was just one person, so shame on management for not correcting this, but this doesn't seem like a calculated effort where everyone was on the same page of doing this testing.
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