Im beginning to think Jersey will be THE first state to reach the old normal.
Im not about to list all the numbers but when one considers the average infection-rate of a flu, and then extrapolate that for the stronger and more infectious covid, you can begin to understand the true scale of how many it has hit.
I believe at least 20-30% of cases are asymptomatic, then another at least 20-30% are symptomatic but not enough to be tested (stay home and get fluids).
Take NJs currently reported confirmed cases - 150k. One must imagine you add a multiplier for each of the categories that arent needing testing. If for every one person who goes for a test, one can guess at least 5-6 arent.
Average flu season mortality rate is below 1% and the season usually lasts 4-5 months. Thatd mean for Covid one can guess if 150k are confirmed positive in only ~5 months, and those cases were mostly sick enough to need hospitalization or emergency care, one can assume youd use a multiplier closer to 10 at LEAST to try and come up with true infection numbers.
This is all my opinion but if I was told that it was correct that at LEAST 150k x 10 = 1.5m out of 8.8m in NJ have already been infected - id think we actually make out better being closer to the epicenter of the pandemic.
I started wondering this when I noticed I cant name a single person im close with who has tested for it - yet half those people have been sick or come in contact with more than close family. This just doesnt add up that none of them had it.
Im curious as to others thoughts. I think this will carry on for quite a while country-wide however, if antibodies prove to hold up to the average 8-12month lifespan - New Jersey could be out of the woods by this time next year. And thats WITHOUT a vaccine or herd immunity.