Speculation: Could we see a massacre this offesason with teams blowing it up trying to chase the Vegas method?

[GOilers88]

What Vegas is doing is because they have a bunch of extremely motivated hockey players on a mission. Castoffs, bad decisions, and dumb GM's are the reason Vegas is about to write its final chapter in this years run. NHL employs some extremely dumb low IQ overpaid GMs and 3rd/4th line grinders on most teams and that is not about to change in 1 year. Vegas winning is an eye opener to how the NHL is managed in general.

There are people on HFBoards that can manage a team better then most NHL GMs.

I don't think 99% of people on this forum have the slightest clue as to what managing a sports franchise entails.

 

[drktmplr12]

so glad i put 1000 on vegas to win the cup in the beginning of the season

 

[McFlash97]

I don't think 99% of people on this forum have the slightest clue as to what managing a sports franchise entails.

Meaning what 100 or so members do then. That's about ~ 1 % dam more then I thought.

 

[McFlash97]

so glad i put 1000 on vegas to win the cup in the beginning of the season

500,000 awaits you....4 wins away

 

[biturbo19]

I think teams were already trying to do what Vegas did this year, but Vegas was able to do it all at once whereas other teams are bogged down with older models and slower players they can't just ditch. I think pretty much every team now wants to get younger and faster and cheaper so I don't see there being many places to dump off those contracts.

Exactly. I don't know what team wasn't looking to get "younger, faster, cheaper" beforehand. It's just that for most teams, it's a long and winding road to get there, and sometimes, a straight up treadmill where you can't add those elements faster than they age/price out at the other end of your age stratification. Other teams don't get to raid 30 other teams' roster to assemble that sort of depth in one fell swoop every year.

Most teams are adding a couple players per year at most from within, who might fit that "model". That's what a "decent" draft tends to yield - a couple long-term NHLers. Maybe snag a bargain bin reclamation project somewhere who may or may not work out. But there's only so much room, and it takes time to cultivate these guys...unless you're an expansion team who gets to pluck them away, or double-dip against leverage on an even more highly invested project at risk of exposure.

Sort of lost in the whole Vegas success story...is that when you've got a 23 man roster, and you get 30 darts to throw...you're gonna hit on guys, and you also don't have to have every dart hit. They had misses too. But you've got room in your boat for some dead weight or disappointments if you miss on a few. Meanwhile, other teams are far more encumbered when it comes to contract limits, and all the time (and development + contract slots) they've invested in developing players who ultimately got scooped up to be part of the Vegas thing instead of bolstering the bottom-end of the roster for the club that developed them to that point. Other teams aren't starting with 50 spots to give away. They're starting with a ton of these contracts and developmental roster slots tied up in players who could potentially become the sort of players Vegas is built around. But it takes time for these players to mature to that point...and they don't come in bunches of 30 at a time.


So sure...we're probably going to see teams even more desperate to get younger, cheaper, faster...especially at the bottom of their lineup. But that's really nothing new or revolutionary. It's been the way the league is tending for a while now. Pretty much every team in the league these days is aspiring to build 4 quality lines and 3 defence pairs that can all seriously play. Just a lot easier said than done for non-expansion teams.

Frankly...unless Vegas massively outperform the average draft results, they're going to hit a wall hard at some point, where they hop on the same treadmill of trying to replace all this cheap, serviceable depth they've accumulated. Without being able to raid other teams en mass for the 2-6 years of development invested in getting them to that point. It's not a reliably sustainable model.

 

[Starat327]

What 'model'? The NHL is rigged, needed a feel good story for Vegas, and wanted to immediately put their new expansion team on the map, so the NHL gave them the cup.

....or at least, that's what I'll expect to hear if they do win it.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

LAK had 3 back to back top-5 picks, they got Doughty, Hickey, and Schenn. Schenn was crucial for the Richards trade and Doughty was a franchise superstar.

CHI had 2 back to back top-5 picks, they got Toews and Kane. Toews ans Kane each have a Conn Smythe and Kane has a Hart Ross Lindsay.

PIT had 5 back to back top-5 picks, they got Ryan Whitney, MAF, Malkin, Crosby, and Jordan Staal. Whitney was essential for Kunitz who helped win all 3, MAF was essential for all 3 (Pens don’t make 16 playoffs and Murray isn’t as rested without MAF), Malkin/Crosby have all the Conn Smythes, Staal was essential for Dumolin

Those teams have 8 of the last 9 Stanley Cups, the only other team to win a Stanley Cup was the Boston Bruins who literally received the greatest goaltending performance of all time.

Chicago had 3 top 5 picks in 4 years (Barker was drafted 3OA in 2004), and 4 top 7 picks in a row (Jack Skille 7OA in 2005). These two guys busted pretty hard, but they were eventually shipped out in trades for packages that included Leddy and Frolik, who both won the Cup in 2012-13 with Chicago.

 

[McShogun99]

You can give the next 100 expansion teams the same draft rules as Vegas and none of them will accomplish what is happening this season.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Chicago had 3 top 5 picks in 4 years (Barker was drafted 3OA in 2004), and 4 top 7 picks in a row (Jack Skille 7OA in 2005). These two guys busted pretty hard, but they were eventually shipped out in trades for packages that included Leddy and Frolik, who both won the Cup in 2012-13 with Chicago.

I am looking specifically at players selected in the top-5 in back to back years. The fact that the only sustainable Stanley Cup Contenders since I started watching hockey in 2010 were among the NHL’s 5 worst teams for two straight seasons is problematic. The Kings actually has 3 straight top-5 picks but Hickey completely busted on them.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I am looking specifically at players selected in the top-5 in back to back years. The fact that the only sustainable Stanley Cup Contenders since I started watching hockey in 2010 were among the NHL’s 5 worst teams for two straight seasons is problematic. The Kings actually has 3 straight top-5 picks but Hickey completely busted on them.

I get what you're saying, and I'm not really disagreeing with your premise that multiple high draft picks are needed to become a Cup contender. I'm just pointing out that Chicago had more than just 2 top 5 draft picks in a short period of time. Is 3 in 4 years really that much different than 3 in a row? Or is 7OA really that much different than 5OA?

Also, in looking through their draft histories, I noticed a lot of contributors being drafted after the 1st round, something I don't see with less successful teams. So, maybe it's the combination of multiple top picks and also having some later round picks work out that's the secret sauce to winning the Cup, and not just having multiple top 5 picks in a row. Otherwise, Edmonton would be poised to win the Cup in the near future, and I'm just not seeing it.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I get what you're saying, and I'm not really disagreeing with your premise that multiple high draft picks are needed to become a Cup contender. I'm just pointing out that Chicago had more than just 2 top 5 draft picks in a short period of time. Is 3 in 4 years really that much different than 3 in a row? Or is 7OA really that much different than 5OA?

Also, in looking through their draft histories, I noticed a lot of contributors being drafted after the 1st round, something I don't see with less successful teams. So, maybe it's the combination of multiple top picks and also having some later round picks work out that's the secret sauce to winning the Cup, and not just having multiple top 5 picks in a row. Otherwise, Edmonton would be poised to win the Cup in the near future, and I'm just not seeing it.

The back to back top-5 in the draft formula is the one I keep coming back to because it is so damn consistent, glaring, and hilarious. Being able to draft back to back also allows you to have these players come up together, develop chemistry and a sense of camaraderie, and remain with that team on team-friendly deals.

One thing to note is that with these tank teams, there was also a superstar level player selected with a pick that wasn’t in the top-5. Kopitar in LA at #11, Keith in Chicago at #54, and Letang in Pittsburgh at #62. Although when it comes to Pittsburgh, they didn’t have Letang in 2017, but they also got
Murray at #83 and Guentzel at #77.

Edmonton won’t win a Cup in the future because their management is among the worst in the NHL. Edmonton made the playoffs in 2017 because their back to back top-5 picks in Draisaitl and McDavid scored 177 points. Those two are absolutely good enough to build a Stanley Cup contender around.

Edmonton turned 2010 #1OV, 2011 #1OV, and 2012 #1OV into Adam Larsson and RNH. Imagine having three straight first overalls and turning them into a solid #2C and a solid 2nd pairing defenseman. Pick three numbers from 1980-2018 out of a hat and look at the first overalls; I guarantee you they will be a much more exciting trio than the duo of Adam Larsson and RNH. I would easily take any random one first overall from that time frame over that pair. For reference, Pittsburgh had a first overall, a 2nd, and another first; they turned that into Fleury, Malkin, and Crosby. And had that been three straight first overalls, it would have been Fleury, Ovechkin, and Crosby. Edmonton got super unlucky with timing regarding their first overalls but it doesn’t help that they traded a franchise caliber and Hart Trophy level LW for a 2nd pairing defenseman.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

The back to back top-5 in the draft formula is the one I keep coming back to because it is so damn consistent, glaring, and hilarious. Being able to draft back to back also allows you to have these players come up together, develop chemistry and a sense of camaraderie, and remain with that team on team-friendly deals.

One thing to note is that with these tank teams, there was also a superstar level player selected with a pick that wasn’t in the top-5. Kopitar in LA at #11, Keith in Chicago at #54, and Letang in Pittsburgh at #62. Although when it comes to Pittsburgh, they didn’t have Letang in 2017, but they also got
Murray at #83 and Guentzel at #77.

Edmonton won’t win a Cup in the future because their management is among the worst in the NHL. Edmonton made the playoffs in 2017 because their back to back top-5 picks in Draisaitl and McDavid scored 177 points. Those two are absolutely good enough to build a Stanley Cup contender around.

Edmonton turned 2010 #1OV, 2011 #1OV, and 2012 #1OV into Adam Larsson and RNH. Imagine having three straight first overalls and turning them into a solid #2C and a solid 2nd pairing defenseman. Pick three numbers from 1980-2018 out of a hat and look at the first overalls; I guarantee you they will be a much more exciting trio than the duo of Adam Larsson and RNH. I would easily take any random one first overall from that time frame over that pair. For reference, Pittsburgh had a first overall, a 2nd, and another first; they turned that into Fleury, Malkin, and Crosby. And had that been three straight first overalls, it would have been Fleury, Ovechkin, and Crosby. Edmonton got super unlucky with timing regarding their first overalls but it doesn’t help that they traded a franchise caliber and Hart Trophy level LW for a 2nd pairing defenseman.

I agree that the back to back top 5 picks is a key piece to the puzzle, but it's not the only thing that matters, something you seem to agree with based on your second paragraph. Just hitting home runs on your top 5 picks isn't enough. You need a couple of top 5 home runs and a couple of later round guys to become contributors/stars if you want to contend.

And, yes, Edmonton got a little unlucky with Hall, RNH, and Yakupov being their 3 1OA picks in a row, but they also didn't hit on any of the later round picks over about a 15 year period. Where's the 3rd round pick all-star goalie like Quick? Or the solid 2nd pairing D drafted in the 4th round like Hjalmarrson? They haven't drafted and kept a really good late round pick since they got Horcoff in the 4th round of the 1998 draft. That's just not going to get it done in today's NHL.

 

[The GM]

I’d LOVE to see some team strip down their roster and try to rebuild using only waiver claims, cap dumps, and castoffs that teams are willing to give them for a 4th.

Five lottery-pick seasons later, people would be all “is the Vegas method flawed???”

Somebody needs to ask Brian Burke about the Pittsburgh model again

 

[3074326]

I agree that the back to back top 5 picks is a key piece to the puzzle, but it's not the only thing that matters, something you seem to agree with based on your second paragraph. Just hitting home runs on your top 5 picks isn't enough. You need a couple of top 5 home runs and a couple of later round guys to become contributors/stars if you want to contend.

And, yes, Edmonton got a little unlucky with Hall, RNH, and Yakupov being their 3 1OA picks in a row, but they also didn't hit on any of the later round picks over about a 15 year period. Where's the 3rd round pick all-star goalie like Quick? Or the solid 2nd pairing D drafted in the 4th round like Hjalmarrson? They haven't drafted and kept a really good late round pick since they got Horcoff in the 4th round of the 1998 draft. That's just not going to get it done in today's NHL.

I don't think Edmonton got unlucky at all. I think they got extremely lucky and then failed as an organization.

I also think Vegas did something that would prove to be the exception rather than the rule.

 

[HollaHaula]

This could be a possible work around to do "The Vegas Method" for existing teams

Another option:

1. Let our entire roster's contracts expire.
2. Ask the NHL to let us redo the expansion process.
3. ???
4. Profit.

 

[MessierII]

Vegas is a miracle. Another team with the exact same expansion rules and a good coach will never repeat this. A one in a million mix of players/coach and a mass shooting in the city right before the season started to rally everyone mentally. This was a perfect storm.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I agree that the back to back top 5 picks is a key piece to the puzzle, but it's not the only thing that matters, something you seem to agree with based on your second paragraph. Just hitting home runs on your top 5 picks isn't enough. You need a couple of top 5 home runs and a couple of later round guys to become contributors/stars if you want to contend.

And, yes, Edmonton got a little unlucky with Hall, RNH, and Yakupov being their 3 1OA picks in a row, but they also didn't hit on any of the later round picks over about a 15 year period. Where's the 3rd round pick all-star goalie like Quick? Or the solid 2nd pairing D drafted in the 4th round like Hjalmarrson? They haven't drafted and kept a really good late round pick since they got Horcoff in the 4th round of the 1998 draft. That's just not going to get it done in today's NHL.

Edmonton got more than a little unlucky with their 3 first overalls and did the complete opposite of any favors for themselves when they traded Hall for a 2nd pair D and botched the development of RNH and Yakupov. Again, my point regarding Edmonton is that with competent management, they probably could be a contender.

I’ll take Hall, Draisaitl, and McDavid over any other trio in the NHL. Edmonton probably could have beat Anaheim last year with Taylor Hall and they probably could have made the playoffs this year with Hall.

And yeah, the back to back top 5 picks thing isn’t a big deal. It’s something I always bring up because I think it’s funny that things worked out the way they did, but could Winnipeg build a contender around #7OV Schiefele and #2OV Laine they were drafted 5 years apart? Yes, absolutely. But mainly because they have the best 1st round drafting group in the NHL.

 

[Funk21]

1. Hire one of the better coaches available, plus his coaching staff;
2. Get your pick of other teams 3-6 D men. Likely some may actually be better but we’re never given the opportunity;
3. Have teams desperate to avoid losing players that they give up players they deem disposable but are actually really good.

This was a perfect storm and something that if we ran a simulator would not happen 99/100 times.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Doing what Vegas did will be next to impossible

You could say the odds are 500 to 1.

 

[Ciao]

1. Hire one of the better coaches available, plus his coaching staff;
2. Get your pick of other teams 3-6 D men. Likely some may actually be better but we’re never given the opportunity;
3. Have teams desperate to avoid losing players that they give up players they deem disposable but are actually really good.

This was a perfect storm and something that if we ran a simulator would not happen 99/100 times.

Wasn't it the 4-6 d-men?

The Top three or four were always protected.

 

[Ciao]

Vegas is a miracle. Another team with the exact same expansion rules and a good coach will never repeat this. A one in a million mix of players/coach and a mass shooting in the city right before the season started to rally everyone mentally. This was a perfect storm.

They did pretty well with what they had to work with.

Lots a job very well done!

 

[Wingsfan 4 life]

In a way though the Carolina method took hold. They were the first team to adapt to the new rules that eliminated a lot of the obstruction at the time and as a result moved to a far more mobile defense. About the only guy that would be considered slow on that blueline was Commodore and compared to a lot of the other big physical dmen in the league at that time he was well above average as a skater.

Sure, as others have said, I can see coaches/GM's taking notes on certain aspects of Vegas game style and applying it to their own, but the OP is basically asking about a full blown, top to bottom copy/paste attempt by teams because of one cup winning season(obviously a couple weeks premature in declaring so, but sticking with the OP's assumption of Vegas winning it all). For that to happen, it's 99% of the time because that cup winning team has been winning cups/legit contenders for years.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

My Golden Knights like built hypothetical team: (not picking players from VGK)

1st: J.Guentzel-L.Dauphin-T.Terry
2nd R.Nash*-N.Schmaltz-A.DeBrincat
3rd A.Bjork-C.Sceviour-C. Smith
4th C.Cizikas-B.Coleman-A.Roussell

1st W.Butcher-A.McQaid
2nd T.Hickey-B. Montour
3rd M.Nutivaara-M.Stone

SG: C.Crawford
BG: Z. McIntyre

Head Coach: Bob Boughner

*Rick Nash

 

[JuniorNelson]

A giant part of the Vegas Method is a hot goalie.

 

[Viqsi]

Honestly, it's just one of those things:

Atlanta being up 28-3 with 2:12 left in the 3rd

Cubs winning the World Series

Donald Trump running for, and successfully becoming President

Leichester City winning the Premiere League with 5000-1 odds at the beginning of the year

Prince Harry just married the girl from Suits

Vegas winning the Cup in their first year as an expansion NHL franchise doesn't shock me quite as much as any of these things happening. We're almost certainly living in some kind of computer simulation and our overlords are getting a bit cocky with the storylines.

You forgot "LeBron ending the curse" and "back-to-back playoffs appearances from the Blue Jackets".