Corsica Hockey algorithmic Canuck player ratings

[Blue and Green]

Posting these just FYI. They're based on data that considers more than just the current season but is weighted toward recency, and players with smaller sample sizes (Pettersson) are moved toward the mean compared to players of a similar per-game quality with a fuller complement of games. Only current NHL roster/injured reserve players are available. The ratings seem to update weekly so these would be as of last Sunday's games.

I separated them into forwards and defencemen, showing the ranking within the appropriate group. I've also divided them into tiers of 31 so you could get an idea of where a player would rate approximately on an average team-- e.g., (5) indicates 5th forwards or 5th defencemen.

The idea is not to suggest that these are the gospel but rather to challenge the assumptions that each of us has about the players.

Forwards (out of 451):
Boeser 24 (1)
Pettersson 41 (2) Continues to rise as the sample size increases
Horvat 105 (4)
Baertschi 131 (5)
Leivo 164 (6)
Eriksson 239 (8)
Granlund 259 (9)
Sutter 319 (11)
Virtanen 336 (11)
Roussel 344 (12)
Goldobin 386 (13)
Motte 412 (14)
Schaller 426 (14)
Beagle 440 (14)

Defencemen (out of 245):
Edler 47 (2)
Stecher 100 (4)
Tanev 152 (5)
Hutton 176 (6)
Biega 181 (6)
Pouliot 182 (6)
Gudbranson 242 (8)

Markstrom is rated 37th of 71 goalies.

Click to read more...

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Not surprised on Edler. He’s pretty underrated on here just because he’s not a great PP quarterback. He does a lot of things really well.

 

[Horse McHindu]

I mean it’s interesting, but again.......advanced stats and corsi analysis isn’t Biff Tannen’s Sports almanac......and if it was, then Florida and Arizona would have emerged into contender status a few years back.

Advanced Analytics and Corsi are good indicators of many things, but there’s obviously far more to being a good hockey player.

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

Nothing surprised other than Tanev lower than Stecher

 

[WetcoastOrca]

I’d like to know the three guys Guddy is ahead of.

 

[Blue and Green]

I’d like to know the three guys Guddy is ahead of.

All three are on the same team, believe it or not! Can you guess which team?

 

[Peter10]

All three are on the same team, believe it or not! Can you guess which team?

My guess Seabrook, Keith and...?

 

[LordBacon]

All three are on the same team, believe it or not! Can you guess which team?

Edmonton

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

All three are on the same team, believe it or not! Can you guess which team?

.....Dallas stars

 

[Blue and Green]

Actually, it's Ottawa. Mark Borowiecki, Justin Falk and Ben Harpur.

 

[xtra]

I mean it’s interesting, but again.......advanced stats and corsi analysis isn’t Biff Tannen’s Sports almanac......and if it was, then Florida and Arizona would have emerged into contender status a few years back.

Advanced Analytics and Corsi are good indicators of many things, but there’s obviously far more to being a good hockey player.

Yup these stats don’t take into account leadership which as we all know is the driving factor in the worth of a player

 

[Josepho]

I mean it’s interesting, but again.......advanced stats and corsi analysis isn’t Biff Tannen’s Sports almanac......and if it was, then Florida and Arizona would have emerged into contender status a few years back.

Advanced Analytics and Corsi are good indicators of many things, but there’s obviously far more to being a good hockey player.

Except Florida and Arizona aren't actually fully invested in analytics.

 

[xtra]

Posting these just FYI. They're based on data that considers more than just the current season but is weighted toward recency, and players with smaller sample sizes (Pettersson) are moved toward the mean compared to players of a similar per-game quality with a fuller complement of games. Only current NHL roster/injured reserve players are available. The ratings seem to update weekly so these would be as of last Sunday's games.

I separated them into forwards and defencemen, showing the ranking within the appropriate group. I've also divided them into tiers of 31 so you could get an idea of where a player would rate approximately on an average team-- e.g., (5) indicates 5th forwards or 5th defencemen.

The idea is not to suggest that these are the gospel but rather to challenge the assumptions that each of us has about the players.

Forwards (out of 451):
Boeser 24 (1)
Pettersson 41 (2) Continues to rise as the sample size increases
Horvat 105 (4)
Baertschi 131 (5)
Leivo 164 (6)
Eriksson 239 (8)
Granlund 259 (9)
Sutter 319 (11)
Virtanen 336 (11)
Roussel 344 (12)
Goldobin 386 (13)
Motte 412 (14)
Schaller 426 (14)
Beagle 440 (14)

Defencemen (out of 245):
Edler 47 (2)
Stecher 100 (4)
Tanev 152 (5)
Hutton 176 (6)
Biega 181 (6)
Pouliot 182 (6)
Gudbranson 242 (8)

Markstrom is rated 37th of 71 goalies.

I think the most surprising things for me here are levivo, bae, who I would expect to be lower so I’ll re evaluate them when I watch them next and that Hutton and tanev are ranked as 5/6 dmen, when I would have had them higher

Most of the rest I’m not supposed about

 

[PuckMunchkin]

I mean it’s interesting, but again.......advanced stats and corsi analysis isn’t Biff Tannen’s Sports almanac......and if it was, then Florida and Arizona would have emerged into contender status a few years back.

Advanced Analytics and Corsi are good indicators of many things, but there’s obviously far more to being a good hockey player.

Dale Tallon ruined what the stat boys built in Florida. Can you imagine the team they have + Marchessault & Smith.

Arizona is working under a self inflicted cap and has only had Chayka as GM for 2 seasons. Jimbo has been here "rebuilding" twice as long.

 

[y2kcanucks]

Except Florida and Arizona aren't actually fully invested in analytics.

Florida is as invested in analytics right now as some people on here are invested in facts.

 

[Fire Benning]

The numbers test and the eye test agree, Gudbranson is absolute dogshit.

He’s probably #1 out of 245 if you were to re-arrange these rankings based on locker room presence.

 

[Fire Benning]

Seems to underrate Tanev though.

 

[Peter10]

Not even sure I would put Arizona in the "analytics" category anymore. Sure it is Chaykas background and he may use it but some of the moves are rather questionable and I would think there is some pressure from ownership too to ice a playoff team in order to create interest in the market. Making the move for Stephan or the Schmaltz/Strome trade are among the more iffy transactions he made.

 

[Josepho]

And the worst part about the "But Florida and Arizona!" comments are that they never acknowledge that LA's system revolved around shot attempts (which is just one of many advanced stats) and that Pittsburgh went very analytical in their transactions in the 2015 offseason before winning back to back cups.

"The only teams that use analytics are the ones that go against my narrative".

 

[PuckMunchkin]

I find it really weird that some people are so fond of subjective information and are so adverse towards objective information.

 

[ErrantShepherd]

I find it really weird that some people are so fond of subjective information and are so adverse towards objective information.

Probably because subjective info like a feeling about a player tends to require less explanation than objective info like zone starts, corsi, and other statistical info.

I think analytics are incredibly useful, but I'm not going to pretend I know what I'm talking about if I don't know what a stat is supposed to be showing me... whereas anybody can talk about how they feel/what they see.

 

[Horse McHindu]

Except Florida and Arizona aren't actually fully invested in analytics.

I don’t know about now, but they definitely were for a sizeable stretch there. Florida’s owners specifically moved out certain players and kept certain players based purely on the analytics.

 

[Horse McHindu]

Dale Tallon ruined what the stat boys built in Florida. Can you imagine the team they have + Marchessault & Smith.

Arizona is working under a self inflicted cap and has only had Chayka as GM for 2 seasons. Jimbo has been here "rebuilding" twice as long.

So the moral of the story here is that....

1) Arizona has actually only been rebuilding for two years.

2) Most teams that successfully rebuild do it in significantly less time than 4 years.

3) A mysterious parting of the ways from Advanced Analytics as opposed to letting Gerard Gallant go had far more to do with Florida flatlining.

LOL.

Cool story.

 

[pgj98m3]

So the moral of the story here is that....

1) Arizona has actually only been rebuilding for two years.

2) Most teams that successfully rebuild do it in significantly less time than 4 years.

3) A mysterious parting of the ways from Advanced Analytics as opposed to letting Gerard Gallant go had far more to do with Florida flatlining.

LOL.

Cool story.

Provide a better explanation oh wise one.....

 

[Josepho]

I don’t know about now, but they definitely were for a sizeable stretch there. Florida’s owners specifically moved out certain players and kept certain players based purely on the analytics.

Tom Rowe was their GM for less than 18 months. While he was there they had one bad-ish season when

A) Their top line winger was out for 50 games and their top line center was out for 20.
B) Any advanced stats from the previous year suggested that the Panthers were likely going to regress in the first place.

And I'm not sure if there's a single move made by Rowe that you can look at and think that the Panthers really regretted making. Kulikov and Gudbranson are both bottom pairing defencemen on their best days. They paid a pretty cheap price to get out of awful Bolland contract. They signed a 30 goal scorer for nothing towards the end. I suppose firing Gallant was their worst move but at least it seemed to be rooted in the fact that GMs and coaches should have similar philosophies.

Then 97 year old Dale Tallon returns after that year and they gift the eventual Western Conference Champions with two of their top liners so they could protect some trash 3rd pairing "character" defenceman.

And now the Panthers are likely going to miss the playoffs for the 7th time in 9 years since he's joined the organization.

But it's still somehow the nerds' faults.