OT: Coronavirus chat

[Bonzai12]

Some people have N95 masks from other lines of work. I had a few because I own a commercial paint sprayer.

shouldn’t assume just because someone’s wearing a mask that they hoarded it. There’s a lot of the DIY crowd that had N95s from Sherwin Williams and China Depot.

 

[henchman21]

These models can’t predict actual numbers because the end result depends on what we do and the model can’t predict that. However they can predict general outcomes and help us to chose between different scenarios. Expecting exact numbers out of these models is really naive. Also these models are unverifiable, you only get real-life data relative to the scenario chosen. You don’t know how other mitigation methods would have worked in the end.

No model is going to be perfect, but you want them to adapt quickly when data comes in. We are dealing with noisy data with a very, very large amount of assumptions... as new information comes in, the models need to be reassessed quickly.

To an extent you can see different outcomes in handling the virus. Not totally different. Sweden has handled the virus vastly different than most surrounding countries. States like Utah, Wyoming, Nebraska, and a few others have refused to issue the same sorts of orders as other states... many of those states have similar or better outcomes as states nearby that have taken more drastic measures. This will almost certainly change, but Wyoming has been one of the states with the least actions and criticised for it.. yet they are the only state to not have a single death (every other state has at least 6), have the least amount of raw cases, 13th least cases per capita (right in the range with Kansas and Texas), above average in testing per capita (above Florida, next to Pennsylvania), and the strain on even the rural hospitals has not happened. For the longest time, the most popular model was predicting disaster in Wyoming based upon their lack of action. Hospitals would be over run right now, and people would be dying at a high rate.... but the exact opposite is happening. The spread is already slowing, the hospitals have more than enough capacity, and it looks like the real peak was in mid March.

 

[Metallo]

There's a common phrase among those that do this.

"All models are wrong, but some are useful.”

- George Box


The problem is there aren't enough models right now. Even Chris Murray acknowledges the need for more. Different states and cities are using their own as well, with different rates and timelines.

The Murray model I think might be the most optimistic right now. Which means it's possible they could end up closer to the original numbers they had.

I like that quote, sums up nicely what I’m thinking.

 

[ABasin]

So today I went grocery shopping, and the amount of n95s I saw was staggering.

Frankly, it was a waste of masks. I firmly believe even if we did have enough masks for everyone in America I wouldn’t issue a single one. After what I was watching, these people put themselves at much greater danger by wearing the masks than they would have been if not.

I had a lengthy mansplanation about how poorly fitted masks were more dangerous and how touching your mask is more dangerous than not wearing a mask but honestly that information is out there already.

I get it. Every time I put one on, or even just gloves, my face all of a sudden needs to be itched. Doubly so if I’m sterile. It’s annoying and it’s something that plagues us all.

Simply put, you’re putting yourself in more danger by wearing a mask and then not keeping your hands off it, then you would just not wearing it.

I’m not judging anyone for wearing an n95 in public. Ill check my personal feelings on it at the door, but for Christ’s sake, whether it’s an n95 or surgical mask or homemade mask, keep your filthy hands off your face, eyes included. If you can’t not fiddle with the mask, don’t wear it. You’re going to inadvertently infect yourself by wearing something that is meant to protect.

I thought the real reason we are wearing masks in public, is as a courtesy to others, not to protect ourselves. In the case that we're asymptomatic carriers, the masks are there to catch outbound droplets (on which coronaviruses live) leaving our mouths/noses, thus lessening the spread. Is that not so?

I get that as a healthcare professional, you are probably thinking along different lines, re: for what reason you wear masks. But the statement "I firmly believe even if we did have enough masks for everyone in America I wouldn’t issue a single one" is quite rash, and perhaps even dangerous. I have enormous respect for what you do (my girlfriend works in healthcare also, I have both concern and respect for her every single day), and I've learned a number of things from your recent posts. But I hope you'll consider pulling that comment back.

The general message of not touching one's own face is a good one. Just sitting at my desk, I find myself reaching for my face multiple times a day. I'm getting pretty good at stopping myself, but I still reach often. It's not even like there's an itch either. It's simply habit. A tough one to break, as it turns out.

 

[Hasbro]

A gesture KSE needs to make is have a health care worker and service industry worker of the night like they do for veterans.

 

[Sheet]

I thought the real reason we are wearing masks in public, is as a courtesy to others, not to protect ourselves. In the case that we're asymptomatic carriers, the masks are there to catch outbound droplets (on which coronaviruses live) leaving our mouths/noses, thus lessening the spread. Is that not so?

I get that as a healthcare professional, you are probably thinking along different lines, re: for what reason you wear masks. But the statement "I firmly believe even if we did have enough masks for everyone in America I wouldn’t issue a single one" is quite rash, and perhaps even dangerous. I have enormous respect for what you do (my girlfriend works in healthcare also, I have both concern and respect for her every single day), and I've learned a number of things from your recent posts. But I hope you'll consider pulling that comment back.

The general message of not touching one's own face is a good one. Just sitting at my desk, I find myself reaching for my face multiple times a day. I'm getting pretty good at stopping myself, but I still reach often. It's not even like there's an itch either. It's simply habit. A tough one to break, as it turns out.

I more meant n95s. And yeah the idea is to stop the spread, sick person to healthy person. What my whole point is if having a mask on is making people touch their face more often, the risk/reward starts tilting.

Clearly this is an unpopular view, but it’s my opinion that poor mask etiquette is putting people in danger. It’s not as if I said let the virus run rampant. It’s not that I said the plebs don’t deserve the masks. I thought I was clear. It’s out of concern the individual will contaminate themselves and place an infectious dose of virus right next to their airway. That’s not an unreasonable concern.

I could almost get behind surgical masks as they’re more comfortable and maybe people would be less prone to messing with them.

 

[Avsboy]

There's a lot of optimism around the NBA and, following suit, the NHL that the season will be finished.

 

[Ararana]

There's a lot of optimism around the NBA and, following suit, the NHL that the season will be finished.

This is a bit of an ambiguous post, 'the season will be finished' can be taken two ways. Also if you have a source please include it.

 

[Avsboy]

This is a bit of an ambiguous post, 'the season will be finished' can be taken two ways. Also if you have a source please include it.

By finished I mean "completed," with Lord Stanley awarded. Based on an article I read about NBA's 25-day plan to get everyone in gear, another article on Hockeybuzz.com, and that twitter rumor from last night.

 

[Foppa2118]

That's not the biggest issue right now though. The biggest problem is that our screening test is not a good screening test. If its positive you can be fairly sure they have COVID but the false negative rate is high so we've had to test people multiple times.

What would you estimate the false negative rate to be? Like how many out of 10 or 100 do you think were testing negative and then testing positive?

 

[Ruiner058]

What would you estimate the false negative rate to be? Like how many out of 10 or 100 do you think were testing negative and then testing positive?

70% is what our test seems to be sensitive for. This can be increased if you test someone multiple times, but the materials for the test are limited so that's not ideal as well.

 

[Foppa2118]

70% is what our test seems to be sensitive for. This can be increased if you test someone multiple times, but the materials for the test are limited so that's not ideal as well.

70% sensitivity is in line with what I've been hearing as well. That the RT-PCR test has about a 30% false negative rate for COVID-19.

For comparison the flu test usually has a 10-15% false negative rate, but is estimated around 20% this year.

Seems to happen more often with COVID patients who are asymptomatic, or where the swab wasn't applied properly enough to get the virus on the swab since it's very unpleasant, and it lives more in the lungs than the nose and throat.

 

[SirLoinOfCloth]

My fiancee is now quarantined in our bedroom. She got tested yesterday at a drive-thru testing facility in Colorado. I'm 90% sure she has the virus and I can attest this shit is vicious. She has these deep red rings around her eyes, the dry cough, intermittent fever, some difficulty breathing at times when exerting herself, terrible muscle aches and cramps, headache, nausea, diarrhea and some vomiting. She's being kicked really hard. She's also immuno-compromised as she has an autoimmune disorder. So I'll be keeping my fingers crossed that things don't get any worse.

She did a video chat with her physician who then referred her to do another video chat with an urgent care, who then told her to go get tested. So far, so good. They did 2 nasal swabs and a 2 throat swabs at the drive-thru testing and unfortunately one of the nasal swabs broke off inside her nose so they had to dig it out. Painful, and unfortunate, but not really anyone fault.

Then she was told she had to go to the pharmacy this morning, in person (but drive-thru) to collect some medication. They said it had to be her as they needed to give her instructions on how to use it. She almost literally crawled out of the house, got in the car and went to Walgreens wearing gloves and a homemade mask. They were out of the medication and we need to go back later. She told them it was crazy that someone with a high probability of having covid should have to turn up in person, especially when breathing can be hard when exerting one's self. She told them she would not come back and had to sign a document to allow me to collect her meds.

Her PCP called and asked if she had been given meds at the testing facility. She said no, her PCP thought she should have. Now they are saying that test results can be 10-14 days. It just feels like an octopus where all the arms are working independently and have no idea what is going on with the others.

For those that remember, my (also immuno-compromised) 5 year old daughter was suspected to have it a while ago, but it turned out she didn't. So now this is our second brush in a family of 5 with the virus.

In the meantime, I'll be looking after my fiancee, our 3 daughters and attempting to work too. I've banned the kids from seeing her until this is over, we do video chats at story/bedtime so they can say goodnight and the bedroom door is locked so they cannot get near her. I'm keeping her fed and hydrated as best as I can. This f***ing sucks. But I still have to stay grateful because the rest of us are OK, I still have a job.

We got confirmation this morning that my fiancee has tested positive for covid-19. We knew it anyway because her symptoms are so much worse than anything else she's ever had before. Shes also developed more symptoms since I posted the original message on Friday including rigor which is pretty scary and a symptom of her immune system fighting really hard.

One of the biggest challenges she is facing right now is the mental challenge of being locked away from me and the kids. They cry at night because they want to give her a cuddle but we can only do video calls with her. She feels really alone and isolated and there's basically nothing I nor anyone can do other than ride this shit out.

I would suggest to everyone who thinks this is just "flu" to take a moment to reassess. This shit is absolutely brutal and I wouldn't wish it on anyone.

Stay safe HFAvs.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

We got confirmation this morning that my fiancee has tested positive for covid-19. We knew it anyway because her symptoms are so much worse than anything else she's ever had before. Shes also developed more symptoms since I posted the original message on Friday including rigor which is pretty scary and a symptom of her immune system fighting really hard.

One of the biggest challenges she is facing right now is the mental challenge of being locked away from me and the kids. They cry at night because they want to give her a cuddle but we can only do video calls with her. She feels really alone and isolated and there's basically nothing I nor anyone can do other than ride this shit out.

I would suggest to everyone who thinks this is just "flu" to take a moment to reassess. This shit is absolutely brutal and I wouldn't wish it on anyone.

Stay safe HFAvs.

 

[henchman21]

Stay safe @SirLoinOfCloth

 

[expatriatedtexan]

We got confirmation this morning that my fiancee has tested positive for covid-19. We knew it anyway because her symptoms are so much worse than anything else she's ever had before. Shes also developed more symptoms since I posted the original message on Friday including rigor which is pretty scary and a symptom of her immune system fighting really hard.

One of the biggest challenges she is facing right now is the mental challenge of being locked away from me and the kids. They cry at night because they want to give her a cuddle but we can only do video calls with her. She feels really alone and isolated and there's basically nothing I nor anyone can do other than ride this shit out.

I would suggest to everyone who thinks this is just "flu" to take a moment to reassess. This shit is absolutely brutal and I wouldn't wish it on anyone.

Stay safe HFAvs.

My thoughts are with you and your family hoss. I simply can't imagine having to be separated from my wife let alone how this must be affecting the kiddos. Take care.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

We got confirmation this morning that my fiancee has tested positive for covid-19. We knew it anyway because her symptoms are so much worse than anything else she's ever had before. Shes also developed more symptoms since I posted the original message on Friday including rigor which is pretty scary and a symptom of her immune system fighting really hard.

One of the biggest challenges she is facing right now is the mental challenge of being locked away from me and the kids. They cry at night because they want to give her a cuddle but we can only do video calls with her. She feels really alone and isolated and there's basically nothing I nor anyone can do other than ride this shit out.

I would suggest to everyone who thinks this is just "flu" to take a moment to reassess. This shit is absolutely brutal and I wouldn't wish it on anyone.

Stay safe HFAvs.

Sending positive thoughts to you and your family. I hope your fiancée makes a quick recovery. HF Avs is with you.

 

[Pokecheque]

Oh dear...hang in there bro.

 

[avsfan09]

No model is going to be perfect, but you want them to adapt quickly when data comes in. We are dealing with noisy data with a very, very large amount of assumptions... as new information comes in, the models need to be reassessed quickly.

To an extent you can see different outcomes in handling the virus. Not totally different. Sweden has handled the virus vastly different than most surrounding countries. States like Utah, Wyoming, Nebraska, and a few others have refused to issue the same sorts of orders as other states... many of those states have similar or better outcomes as states nearby that have taken more drastic measures. This will almost certainly change, but Wyoming has been one of the states with the least actions and criticised for it.. yet they are the only state to not have a single death (every other state has at least 6), have the least amount of raw cases, 13th least cases per capita (right in the range with Kansas and Texas), above average in testing per capita (above Florida, next to Pennsylvania), and the strain on even the rural hospitals has not happened. For the longest time, the most popular model was predicting disaster in Wyoming based upon their lack of action. Hospitals would be over run right now, and people would be dying at a high rate.... but the exact opposite is happening. The spread is already slowing, the hospitals have more than enough capacity, and t looks like the real peak was in mid March.

How can you compare the ability to spread in Wyoming to states that aren't that aren't nearly as rural? Certain models likely don't take spread rates of different living environments into account.

 

[Pokecheque]

Good heavens...Florida is trying to do everything possible to f*** this up for everyone.

 

[Foppberg]

LIBERATE MICHIGAN!!

Jesus H Christ.

 

[Balthazar]

That's not good

No evidence that people who have survived coronavirus have immunity, says World Health Organisation

 

[Cake Malar]

That's not good

No evidence that people who have survived coronavirus have immunity, says World Health Organisation

I'm sorry, but that is a shit headline and implication. The actual quotes used in the article:

"Right now, we have no evidence that the use of a serological test can show that an individual has immunity or is protected from reinfection."

"These antibody tests will be able to measure that level of seroprevalence - that level of antibodies but that does not mean that somebody with antibodies means that they are immune."

Basically, there is no test that shows if someone has immunity yet. Not "People who get it aren't immune" like the headline is implying.

 

[Foppa2118]

That's not good

No evidence that people who have survived coronavirus have immunity, says World Health Organisation

Like the previous poster mentioned, that's a very misleading headline. They haven't done the antibody testing to know what level of immunity people may have, and for how long. Which is why there's "no evidence" at this time.

Similarly they haven't done enough studies to know whether reinfection is possible, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it is.

They are figuring these things out as they go, because gathering the necessary data, and doing randomized trials by the book takes time. If you shortcut it, you are risking bad results that can do more harm than good when you inform the general public.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Yeah that’s a bad headline. WHO has to cover their ass. Until it’s scientifically proven with ridiculous amounts of evidence they can’t even begin to suggest that getting the virus builds immunity.

Perhaps it actually won’t. Regardless that’s a bad headline.