danielpalfredsson
youtube dot com /watch?v=CdqMZ_s7Y6k
- Aug 14, 2013
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- 9,269
Acquiring Duchene at the deadline could be huge for a team who wants to have the inside track on signing him July 1st.
With Duchene turning 29 during year 1 of his next contract, the ability to offer an 8th year would present a major tactical advantage to a team attempting to convince Duchene to sign with them on July 1st.
I've heard analysts state that 8 years with an 8M AAV is an offer in line with the best offer Duchene could expect. I would disagree.
An 8x8 offer is 64 million, meaning the AAV of an equivalent offer on a 7 year term would be about 9.14M per season. Duchene is easily getting offers in excess of 9 million on July 1st. Tavares received offers in the 12-13 range, and Stamkos back when the cap was in the low 70's was rumoured to have been offered something like 12 from Buffalo. Point being, it's rare for a top line center to be available, and even if Duchene is far inferior to those two players, he doesn't need a 12 or 13 million dollar offer to beat out 8x8 in pure value, he needs something above 9.15 million.
I'm hoping the advantage of the 8th year will be enough to make teams more aggressive than they might be with a traditional rental at the deadline. If a team acquires Duchene at the deadline and is willing to pay Duchene up to 10 million per on an 8 year term, that puts rival teams in a position where they would have to offer something in the 11.5M AAV range over the max 7 years to compete with an 8 year contract. This is assuming bonuses and trade protection are all equal throughout competing offers.
If a deal with an extension built in is not on the table, it will be important for the Senators to identify a team with the capability and mutual willingness to get Duchene extended, because it would bolster the return if there are conditional elements to the trade.
With Duchene turning 29 during year 1 of his next contract, the ability to offer an 8th year would present a major tactical advantage to a team attempting to convince Duchene to sign with them on July 1st.
I've heard analysts state that 8 years with an 8M AAV is an offer in line with the best offer Duchene could expect. I would disagree.
An 8x8 offer is 64 million, meaning the AAV of an equivalent offer on a 7 year term would be about 9.14M per season. Duchene is easily getting offers in excess of 9 million on July 1st. Tavares received offers in the 12-13 range, and Stamkos back when the cap was in the low 70's was rumoured to have been offered something like 12 from Buffalo. Point being, it's rare for a top line center to be available, and even if Duchene is far inferior to those two players, he doesn't need a 12 or 13 million dollar offer to beat out 8x8 in pure value, he needs something above 9.15 million.
I'm hoping the advantage of the 8th year will be enough to make teams more aggressive than they might be with a traditional rental at the deadline. If a team acquires Duchene at the deadline and is willing to pay Duchene up to 10 million per on an 8 year term, that puts rival teams in a position where they would have to offer something in the 11.5M AAV range over the max 7 years to compete with an 8 year contract. This is assuming bonuses and trade protection are all equal throughout competing offers.
If a deal with an extension built in is not on the table, it will be important for the Senators to identify a team with the capability and mutual willingness to get Duchene extended, because it would bolster the return if there are conditional elements to the trade.
