Prospect Info: Considering the word "prospect"

[Zman5778]

Alright. Since we're going to have our annual Fall ranking polls coming out in the next month or so (likely after the upcoming WJC)........I figured we'd kick off this discussion so we're not running polls and getting distracted.

So, I present to you:
1a.) What criteria do we want to use when putting prospects up for a poll?
1b.) Instead of "criteria", do we just use age on October 1? (As in, a U-22 ranking or U-23 or something)
2.) Do we want to include goalies in the poll, or treat them separately?

I've seen a LOT of different opinions on this and want to see if we can't come to some sort of consensus before the voting begins.


My thoughts on the matter:

1a.) The criteria I would use -- 22 or under (as of 10/1/22) OR less than 82 NHL games played (1 NHL season). This eliminates someone like Dahlin.....but not Sammy or Krebs.
1b.) If we wanted to use a strict age criteria, I'd be fine with a strict 22 and under.......but that would include Dahlin. (and would exclude guys like UPL and Biro and Weissbach and R2)
2.) I know they're voodoo, but I'm a fan of including them.

Your thoughts???

Click to read more...

 

[MarkusKetterer]

I would say “eligible for the Calder” and less than 82 games (26 for G).

 

[Gabrielor]

The old HFBoards Model was under 24 or under 65/25 games for skater/goalie I believe.

 

[Zach716]

For goalies- maybe do a goalies only polling first, then a players only polling.

Then after, a poll of where to slot each goalie between skaters in ranked choice? Such as ‘where does goalie #1 slot in?’

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

Alright. Since we're going to have our annual Fall ranking polls coming out in the next month or so (likely after the upcoming WJC)........I figured we'd kick off this discussion so we're not running polls and getting distracted.

So, I present to you:
1a.) What criteria do we want to use when putting prospects up for a poll?
1b.) Instead of "criteria", do we just use age on October 1? (As in, a U-22 ranking or U-23 or something)
2.) Do we want to include goalies in the poll, or treat them separately?

I've seen a LOT of different opinions on this and want to see if we can't come to some sort of consensus before the voting begins.


My thoughts on the matter:

1a.) The criteria I would use -- 22 or under (as of 10/1/22) OR less than 82 NHL games played (1 NHL season). This eliminates someone like Dahlin.....but not Sammy or Krebs.
1b.) If we wanted to use a strict age criteria, I'd be fine with a strict 22 and under.......but that would include Dahlin. (and would exclude guys like UPL and Biro and Weissbach and R2)
2.) I know they're voodoo, but I'm a fan of including them.

Your thoughts???

Maybe he's an anomaly, but consider the example of our Magic Giraffe, sent down after 100+ NHL games, returning to the Sabres at age 23.

Nobody would argue that he wasn't still a prospect at that point, but he wouldn't qualify under your criteria. He certainly isn't one now, of course, but precisely when did he graduate to "established NHLer"?

You're a mod. What criteria are used when closing a player's page in the Prospects forum? Maybe we should just use them.

While we're nailing jelly to the wall, let's define "bust". Pet peeve of mine the way that term is used.

 

[Woodhouse]

Well, we also don't have to be uniform anymore with the rest of HF by going with the old model; so, hmm, spitballing here, what about including only players on their ELC in addition to the usual unsigned prospects whose draft rights are still owned? Cozens would be the typical "HF grad" still included, while graduating would be second contracts, aka guys we've been ranking for years now, and any college UFA's. Call it ELP or entry-level polls or whatever else you can come up with. A slight alternative would be to just tweak ELC for waivers-exempt instead if you really want to include Biro, Murray, and Pilut.

 

[old kummelweck]

How about anyone that was eligible for the Sabres prospect camp.

I think it's less important to identify whether someone is a prospect, which is pretty straight forward and only edge cases have debate, and more important to agree on HOW one evaluates their ranking.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

I don't care as long as we bring back combination number/letter grades

 

[NotABadPeriod]

Well, we also don't have to be uniform anymore with the rest of HF by going with the old model; so, hmm, spitballing here, what about including only players on their ELC in addition to the usual unsigned prospects whose draft rights are still owned? Cozens would be the typical "HF grad" still included, while graduating would be second contracts, aka guys we've been ranking for years now, and any college UFA's. Call it ELP or entry-level polls or whatever else you can come up with. A slight alternative would be to just tweak ELC for waivers-exempt instead if you really want to include Biro, Murray, and Pilut.

I think any definition of prospect has to include UPL, who will be out of his ELC but still waiver exempt.

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

I think any definition of prospect has to include UPL, who will be out of his ELC but still waiver exempt.

That's a useful qualitative definition. If you can clear waivers, you're still a prospect.

Otoh, was Eichel (boo, hiss) ever really a "prospect"? He was never going to see a game in Rochester, regardless of waiver status. Loads of similar examples around the league.

 

[NotABadPeriod]

That's a useful qualitative definition. If you can clear waivers, you're still a prospect.

Otoh, was Eichel (boo, hiss) ever really a "prospect"? He was never going to see a game in Rochester, regardless of waiver status. Loads of similar examples around the league.

But is Pilut still a prospect? Because he's waiver exempt for another 5 games...and at this point, I'm not sure I'd consider a 26 year old a prospect....

 

[tsujimoto74]

I used Calder eligibility as the defining criteria last year, and I thought that seemed pretty reasonable.

 

[Asymmetric Solution]

Calder eligible.

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

So like Kaprizov 2 seasons ago? I'm thinking "no".

But is Pilut still a prospect? Because he's waiver exempt for another 5 games...and at this point, I'm not sure I'd consider a 26 year old a prospect....

Nobody said this was gonna be easy.

 

[tsujimoto74]

Any cut-off you use is going to draw an arbitrary line somewhere. Calder eligibility at least uses a line that means something to the NHL.

 

[Zman5778]

You're a mod. What criteria are used when closing a player's page in the Prospects forum? Maybe we should just use them.

I'm only a mod of this specific forum.....I'm not privvy to the specific discussions regarding other forums. So I have no idea....lol

 

[Zman5778]

I think it's less important to identify whether someone is a prospect, which is pretty straight forward and only edge cases have debate, and more important to agree on HOW one evaluates their ranking.

This I'm less inclined to "force". Everyone is going to have different rankings based on their own criteria. I mean, maybe there's someone out there who truly believes that Brandon Biro is our best prospect (I would like to have a word with such person.......but I digress).

Everyone is going to use some blend of "max ceiling", "realistic scenario" and "likelihood to play/reach ceiling". And when people are honestly debating........there are great discussions about the theory.

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

I'm only a mod of this specific forum.....I'm not privvy to the specific discussions regarding other forums. So I have no idea....lol

My illusion of the omniscient mod, shattered forever.

 

[Kyndig]

I'd just make it a strict age cutoff and have people poll for the age limit. I never cared for the idea of developing in the NHL removes rookie/prospect status. Cozens is just as much of a prospect as Quinn is IMO, but they were given different paths. The only reason people have x-games in the NHL removing rookie/prospect status is because they have shiny new toy syndrome.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

My illusion of the omniscient mod, shattered forever.

I thought Zman knew everything anyway, regardless of being a mod.

 

[KiwiGriff]

This I'm less inclined to "force". Everyone is going to have different rankings based on their own criteria. I mean, maybe there's someone out there who truly believes that Brandon Biro is our best prospect (I would like to have a word with such person.......but I digress).

Everyone is going to use some blend of "max ceiling", "realistic scenario" and "likelihood to play/reach ceiling". And when people are honestly debating........there are great discussions about the theory.

“I like their name” is pretty high in my criteria.

 

[Jim Bob]

For goalies- maybe do a goalies only polling first, then a players only polling.

Then after, a poll of where to slot each goalie between skaters in ranked choice? Such as ‘where does goalie #1 slot in?’

Splitting skater and goalie rankings? Do you work for NHL Central Scouting?

 

[MarkusKetterer]

“I like their name” is pretty high in my criteria.

So William von Barnekow-Lofberg is your favourite prospect?

 

[jc17]

Conversation makes me think of Kramer and Poppie

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

I thought Zman knew everything anyway, regardless of despite being a mod.

jk We love our mods, for the most part.