WJC: Connor Bedard rookie NHL season?

[Czechboy]

Jeez, I go away for one day to drive home from vacation and all the fun posts were shut down.lol

I'm noticing a real trend around here about Connor Bedard. Lots of moving goal posts and an insane amount of flaming. Apparantly suggesting he won't win the Hart next year is the same as saying he sucks. Or saying he's not Connor McDavid means he's going to the ECHL.

So I have to ask what people think he'll do as an 18 year old rookie. I've said 50 points personally but that was apparently way off! It would appear he is set to go score at least 140 points next season as a small 18 year old. I know, Gretzky had no problems and he was the same size. We already know he's better than HOF Peter Forsberg becuase he didn't make the NHL at 18 (loser!).

So, have at it.

Here are the top 18 year old seasons according to quant hockey (if you have a better one then post it and I'll replace this one). I've highlighted the 3 best 18 year old seasons in the last decade.

Click to read more...

 

[nbwingsfan]

Jeez, I go away for one day to drive home from vacation and all the fun posts were shut down.lol

I'm noticing a real trend around here about Connor Bedard. Lots of moving goal posts and an insane amount of flaming. Apparantly suggesting he won't win the Hart next year is the same as saying he sucks. Or saying he's not Connor McDavid means he's going to the ECHL.

So I have to ask what people think he'll do as an 18 year old rookie. I've said 50 points personally but that was apparently way off! It would appear he is set to go score at least 140 points next season as a small 18 year old. I know, Gretzky had no problems and he was the same size. We already know he's better than HOF Peter Forsberg becuase he didn't make the NHL at 18 (loser!).

So, have at it.

Here are the top 18 year old seasons according to quant hockey (if you have a better one then post it and I'll replace this one). I've highlighted the 3 best 18 year old seasons in the last decade.

View attachment 631681

A lot of it will depend on which team drafts him, but assuming it’s not a team completely devoid of talent (Chicago) I would expect around 60-70. Likely close to 70

 

[Czechboy]

A lot of it will depend on which team drafts him, but assuming it’s not a team completely devoid of talent (Chicago) I would expect around 60-70. Likely close to 70

Bottom 5 based on win percentage today.

Columbus got derailed with injuries but if they got him, they'd be very good over night if the injured guys came back next season.

Chicago is in a bad place to my eye next season.

Anaheim has some great pieces and he'd do well there next season.

San Jose is 50-50 depending on if they sell of their good players

Arizona has some nice pieces too and are due to start winning... I think.lol

 

[nbwingsfan]

View attachment 631683

Bottom 5 based on win percentage today.

Columbus got derailed with injuries but if they got him, they'd be very good over night if the injured guys came back next season.

Chicago is in a bad place to my eye next season.

Anaheim has some great pieces and he'd do well there next season.

San Jose is 50-50 depending on if they sell of their good players

Arizona has some nice pieces too and are due to start winning... I think.lol

Yeah Chicago has literally no one to play with once Kane/Toews are traded

Anaheim with Zegras would be electric, although a nightmare defensively

Columbus with Gaudreau and Laine would be a lot of fun to watch

SJ and Arizona are just meh.

All things remaining equal, I’d like to see Anaheim get him

 

[Gold Standard]

View attachment 631683

Bottom 5 based on win percentage today.

Columbus got derailed with injuries but if they got him, they'd be very good over night if the injured guys came back next season.

Chicago is in a bad place to my eye next season.

Anaheim has some great pieces and he'd do well there next season.

San Jose is 50-50 depending on if they sell of their good players

Arizona has some nice pieces too and are due to start winning... I think.lol

LOL. Arizona always has nice pieces...that always seem to fizzle out and fade by year D+4.

 

[Smif]

This list is missing all the players with late birthdays, like, Matthews and Lemieux It's too bad McDavid was injured his rookie year, that would've been interesting. All in all I want to say he's in the Yzerman tier. 70-85ish points.

 

[Silky Johnson]

I have him ahead of Sylvain Turgeon but behind Sid. 91 points if healthy.

 

[Czechboy]

This list is missing all the players with late birthdays, like, Matthews and Lemieux It's too bad McDavid was injured his rookie year, that would've been interesting. All in all I want to say he's in the Yzerman tier. 70-85ish points.

Quant isn't always the best... so if you have a better one, post it and I'll edit it.

Matthews had 69 points in his rookie year.

Lemieux had 100. It seems most the records were in the 80's.

 

[Czechboy]

Yeah Chicago has literally no one to play with once Kane/Toews are traded

Anaheim with Zegras would be electric, although a nightmare defensively

Columbus with Gaudreau and Laine would be a lot of fun to watch

SJ and Arizona are just meh.

All things remaining equal, I’d like to see Anaheim get him

Anaheim or Columbus would be ideal imo. Heck, he'd get his good buddy Svozil to play with in a few seasons too!

 

[Smif]

Quant isn't always the best... so if you have a better one, post it and I'll edit it.

Matthews had 69 points in his rookie year.

Lemieux had 100. It seems most the records were in the 80's.

Anaheim would be cool, I could see him being the reincarnate of Kariya. He probably would've had 70-80 points as an 18 year old if there wasn't a lockout.

I see him as being in the Kariya, Yzerman, Sakic tier when all is said and done.

 

[Recipe Unlimited]

Start with Connor McDavid's rookie year point totals. Extrapolate that to a full 82 game season. Add 10% since scoring is up 10-15% since 2015-16. Add an additional 15% if he gets on a team with someone who can feed him the puck. (e.g. Columbus with Gaudreau). Minus 15% if he gets on a team with an old school coach that won't give him as much opportunity (e.g. Philly with Tortorella).

 

[GreenLine]

I'm assuming any team bad enough to draft him will immediately look to make him a major component of the offense, both because they're starved for offense and because they need to offer the fans some hope, so he'll get top 6 minutes (maybe sheltered) and first unit power play usage. I voted 80. Anything from 60-100 points wouldn't surprise me though.

I have less concern about his game translating to the NHL than I did for McDavid, which is to say that there's a ton of uncertainty in this. It's a huge adjustment from juniors to the NHL for every player.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Went with 70. I think he'll be in the 65-70 point range over 82 games.

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

I am 100 per cent positive he won't be going "Back to the OHL"

As for his point total, I'm pretty confident he can score 50 points in the NHL next year, given a full season. A lot depends on who drafts him though. I might bump this up if it's Anaheim and he'll have better linemates and talent around him. Chicago without a Patrick Kane for example? He might be in tough to hit 50.

 

[Czechboy]

I am 100 per cent positive he won't be going "Back to the OHL"

View attachment 631732

As for his point total, I'm pretty confident he can score 50 points in the NHL next year, given a full season. A lot depends on who drafts him though. I might bump this up if it's Anaheim and he'll have better linemates and talent around him. Chicago without a Patrick Kane for example? He might be in tough to hit 50.

I originally had a 'more than Michkov' option too.lol.

Wright would've clicked that box for instance. Few NHL points and back to junior. Not saying it'll happen to Bedard but kakko, Hughes and laf all struggled as 18 year olds. Hughes has clearly figured it out.lol.

 

[David Suzuki]

Somewhere between Stevie Y and Crosby IMO. Went with 100 because I'm hoping he plays with Caufield.

 

[OskarOskarius]

I have him at 30 points. He’s 15 yo ffs.

 

[ViD]

People need to curb their expectations. His size will limit his immediate impact, he will have a Patrick Kane rookie season at best.

 

[GlassesJacketShirt]

Going with the 60 range. I do think he could achieve PPG if he's gets PP time with some shooting aces on the opposite side, but I do believe there will be an adjustment period and increases his speed.

His 19 year old season will be the one to watch for.

 

[Jets4Life]

I'm not really sure why people are so dismissive of Bedard's accomplishments, especially compared to McDavid. When McDavid competed in the 2015 WJC, Nic Petan and Sam Reinhart both were tied with him in points (11). With Bedard, he was far ahead of everyone with 23. Nobody even came close. In fact, he has led his WHL team by a mile. Nobody is remotely close to him in scoring.

The only person who came close to being this dominant for a 17 year old in an international competition was Gretzky in 1978. Even when Eric Lindros was so dominant for team Canada in 1991, Doug Weight put up more points for Team USA.

My prediction would be at a similar level to Crosby in 2005-06.

 

[SwedishFire]

I'm not really sure why people are so dismissive of Bedard's accomplishments, especially compared to McDavid. When McDavid competed in the 2015 WJC, Nic Petan and Sam Reinhart both were tied with him in points (11). With Bedard, he was far ahead of everyone with 23. Nobody even came close. In fact, he has led his WHL team by a mile. Nobody is remotely close to him in scoring.

The only person who came close to being this dominant for a 17 year old in an international competition was Gretzky in 1978. Even when Eric Lindros was so dominant for team Canada in 1991, Doug Weight put up more points for Team USA.

My prediction would be at a similar level to Crosby in 2005-06.

With ypur logic, Doug weight has to put up 100 points in his rookie season, and Petan being a superstar....

Its not that easy. Right?
Bedard will do well, but belive he will set the league on fire is unfair to him. 40-60points is fair to belive.

 

[Aaaaaaaaaaaaa]

I put him around 90. He is a ppg player or better for sure, but he is likely going to be on a bad team with less than stellar linemates. If the pick gets traded and he ends up on a decent team (not likely going to happen), that could push him over 100.

 

[Antiillafire]

I originally had a 'more than Michkov' option too.lol.

Wright would've clicked that box for instance. Few NHL points and back to junior. Not saying it'll happen to Bedard but kakko, Hughes and laf all struggled as 18 year olds. Hughes has clearly figured it out.lol.

Bedard can’t go back to the OHL, because he’s a WHL player

 

[Czechboy]

Bedard can’t go back to the OHL, because he’s a WHL player

What a great contribution. Thank you and fixed.

 

[HansonBro]

If im any of those teams I'm sending him down for another year to mature. No way I'm burning a year of ELC.

Tank another year and go from there