Congrats to Sam Ventura

[BrunoPuntzJones]

Also the Guerin buddy angle is total ********. Lovejoy was getting cups of coffee when Guerin was playing here.

People are just straight making **** up about that trade.

 

[Penguinator]

Also Karmanos wasn't shipped to Europe...Guerin was. So again...dunno why you keep saying Karmanos was.

Never said Karmanos but one of Karmanos guys. Didn't know it was Guerin, was he the only one shipped though?

 

[Jacob]

Guerin was shipped to Europe?

 

[Quatro Quatro]

I have a career in a numbers-focused discipline, and I gotta say.. I'm very skeptical about the whole hockey analytics movement. Seems like a lot of snake oil if you ask me.

I think the collection of the data is great, but trying to make inferences on the said data is where it gets sketchy.

I definitely agree with you here. This definitely isn't a bad move in any way. I'm just not completely sold on the statistics being used right now. I think there's still a long way to go.

Now if we're talking baseball? Yeah you can absolutely put a lot of stock in what the advanced stats say. It's just so much easier to break it down player by player. I think hockey is kinda where baseball was at 10 years ago.

 

[66-30-33]

Guerin was shipped to Europe?

Naw, he was shipped to the south pole to think of what a horrible trade that was getting Lovejoy for Despres.

 

[tom_servo]

Even if Lovejoy wins the analytics battle (pretty sure he doesn't), you don't swap those assets.

 

[hooverdam]

Also the Guerin buddy angle is total ********. Lovejoy was getting cups of coffee when Guerin was playing here.

People are just straight making **** up about that trade.

The dude who gave us hour-by-hour Kessel updates all but confirmed Guerin was behind the trade. I tend to believe it.

 

[Jacob]

Even if Lovejoy wins the analytics battle (pretty sure he doesn't), you don't swap those assets.

Right. Analytics should be used to tip the scale on minor or very debatable trades or roster adjustments, like maybe the Cole / Bortuzzo trade. Despres is just simply so much better and younger than Lovejoy that it's not even worth digging into the advanced stuff. That and he likely has high perceived value that you can't quantify with statistics.

If you need advanced stats to see that Despres is better than Lovejoy you're in the wrong business. If your advanced stats show that Lovejoy is better than Despres you shouldn't use them for anything.

 

[Harv]

I have a career in a numbers-focused discipline, and I gotta say.. I'm very skeptical about the whole hockey analytics movement. Seems like a lot of snake oil if you ask me.

I think the collection of the data is great, but trying to make inferences on the said data is where it gets sketchy.

I'm with this.

The data is trying to become too predictive when hockey isn't that kind of game, especially on a game to game basis. It should say ''This guy sucks.. we can see with our eyes he sucks and here's his data, it backs it up in every way'' and not ''This guys data is good.. so we can predict he's going to do this''. No, you can't predict human nature on a daily basis in independent situations. It doesn't work like that. The data is simply a collection over time, using it to predict far down the road isn't as black and white as a lot of us hope.

Also, that poor guy doesn't know what he's getting into by joining the organization.

 

[Penguinator]

That 'poor guy' has two jobs, one of which is teaching & the other one is analytical consultant for the Pens. Org just improved their take on data so it's all about him presenting them the numbers in a way Pens can make good use of them. At the very least it will be useful & as this science grows we'll be glad the Pens hired a leader in that domain.

 

[Asuna]

Never said Karmanos but one of Karmanos guys. Didn't know it was Guerin, was he the only one shipped though?

I see. That makes more sense then. But I still don't see where JR said analytics came into play for the trade.

Guerin was reassigned duties...he's going to be doing more scouting in Europe than in the past...so he's not there permanently or anything. But yeah...he's the only one I've seen that was reassigned over there.

 

[Vujtek]

Guerin was reassigned duties...he's going to be doing more scouting in Europe than in the past...so he's not there permanently or anything. But yeah...he's the only one I've seen that was reassigned over there.

Scouting in Europe was much of Fitzgerald's responsibilities this past season. Will he be spending more time in NA now to counter Guerin being more in Europe or will they both be doing scouting in Europe?

I believe Fitz got the credit for scouting Plotnikov?

As for Ventura, good news. More qualified people doing scouting & analytics for the team, the better.

 

[Asuna]

Scouting in Europe was much of Fitzgerald's responsibilities this past season. Will he be spending more time in NA now to counter Guerin being more in Europe or will they both be doing scouting in Europe?

I believe Fitz got the credit for scouting Plotnikov?

As for Ventura, good news. More qualified people doing scouting & analytics for the team, the better.

http://triblive.com/sports/penguins/8547801-74/dupuis-penguins-blood#axzz3goOq58QB

Rutherford also said assistant GM Bill Guerin will “do more in player development; pro scouting; a little pre-scouting but not too much; seeing more of the tournaments in Europe and looking at potential free agents.â€

Rutherford said he expects assistant GM Tom Fitzgerald and associate GM Jason Botterill to have similar duties. Fitzgerald did a lot of scouting, and Botterill handled salary-cap issues. Both spent time with the club's AHL affiliate in Wilkes-Barre

Really just sounds like Guerin is being sent over to Europe more to expand his GM skills...but that could also be construed as...'get away from me, you ****ed up the Despres trade...

 

[SprootsMasterFlex]

Sam Ventura, Pet Detective

Great signing. Hope we see more smart moves like this one.

 

[Shady Machine]

I have a career in a numbers-focused discipline, and I gotta say.. I'm very skeptical about the whole hockey analytics movement. Seems like a lot of snake oil if you ask me.

I think the collection of the data is great, but trying to make inferences on the said data is where it gets sketchy.

Why?

It's certainly not perfect yet, but why can't stats help be a part of the conversation? I mean we do it already, just with more "basic" stats. "This goalie sucks because his GAA is xx and save % is yy". Are those stats "snake oil"?

 

[Riptide]

Great. hockey is going "Geek" as well now.

I appreciate that the org is at least doing different things

And if you're going to go hire an expert... he's probably one of the better ones out there.

 

[Riptide]

While I'm sure they will get some fine tuning, analytics say that Tyler Kennedy and Dan Winnik are good players, so I have a hard time taking too much stock in them at this point.

Good players or effective players? Because there is a difference. If both continuously mange to move play north, then while we all cant' stand TK, that wouldn't mean he wasn't an effective player. As for Winnik, I liked him. And if we had more cap space, I would have liked to bring him back. I hated what we spent to get him, but once he was here I liked his game in the bottom 6.

 

[Riptide]

Now if we're talking baseball? Yeah you can absolutely put a lot of stock in what the advanced stats say. It's just so much easier to break it down player by player. I think hockey is kinda where baseball was at 10 years ago.

While I agree, there's also a big difference between the two games. Baseball is mostly between the batter and the pitcher. Hockey is a lot more fluid and team based, where every individual part makes more of an impact on the stats then it does in the MLB. Hopefully the stats will continue to evolve, however I do not think you'll ever find a group that will completely endorse them vs what they see with the 'eye test'.

 

[Penguinator]

In retrospect, Winnik was too costly because we were going down. If we have had a healthier roster than yes, good deal.

 

[Quatro Quatro]

While I agree, there's also a big difference between the two games. Baseball is mostly between the batter and the pitcher. Hockey is a lot more fluid and team based, where every individual part makes more of an impact on the stats then it does in the MLB. Hopefully the stats will continue to evolve, however I do not think you'll ever find a group that will completely endorse them vs what they see with the 'eye test'.

Oh absolutely. There are so many more things to look at in hockey.

Advanced stats definitely have a place in making decisions, but only to a certain extent. You wanna build a good 4th line? Yeah take a good look at possession stats so you don't get stuck with a Tanner Glass. But if you're looking for options on your top couple of lines? Eh. I'm not so sure. Advanced stats would tell you that Kunitz is a decent option, but I want to see results, not good possession numbers.

 

[Shady Machine]

Good players or effective players? Because there is a difference. If both continuously mange to move play north, then while we all cant' stand TK, that wouldn't mean he wasn't an effective player. As for Winnik, I liked him. And if we had more cap space, I would have liked to bring him back. I hated what we spent to get him, but once he was here I liked his game in the bottom 6.

The problem wasn't Winnik as a player, it was his usage and fit on our roster. He is a good bottom 6 guy with a big body, good instincts, PK ability, and can help maintain possession. He was being asked to play on a top line with Crosby and on a team with a lot of safe, meh players.

 

[BrunoPuntzJones]

The dude who gave us hour-by-hour Kessel updates all but confirmed Guerin was behind the trade. I tend to believe it.

Guerin may have advocated for the trade, I buy that, but that's not the same as Guerin brought Lovejoy back because he liked him so much when yhey played maybe 14 games together over two seasons. That's grasping for narrative.

 

[Jacob]

Guerin may have advocated for the trade, I buy that, but that's not the same as Guerin brought Lovejoy back because he liked him so much when yhey played maybe 14 games together over two seasons. That's grasping for narrative.

I agree. There's no way Guerin built any kind of rapport with Lovejoy as a player.

 

[SomeDude]

Good players or effective players? Because there is a difference. If both continuously mange to move play north, then while we all cant' stand TK, that wouldn't mean he wasn't an effective player. As for Winnik, I liked him. And if we had more cap space, I would have liked to bring him back. I hated what we spent to get him, but once he was here I liked his game in the bottom 6.

TK is so effective that he's unemployed.

 

[madinsomniac]

I have a career in a numbers-focused discipline, and I gotta say.. I'm very skeptical about the whole hockey analytics movement. Seems like a lot of snake oil if you ask me.

I think the collection of the data is great, but trying to make inferences on the said data is where it gets sketchy.

That is why it has to be used in conjunction with traditional scouting... locate weak points, locate best available solutions, scout to find which is likely the best fix. Its better than solely using scouting and coaches preference where you end up with Glass and Adams both living off of old rep and clearly sucking out loud together, or orpik with Scuds being made as a "shutdown pairing". Bias in scouting might overlook that... stats would point out how bad they were together and then you find a logical fix for it.