Speculation: Compliance Buyouts

[Gilligans Island]

Didn't DW say that Havlat will be gone one way or another. I thought he was as gone as Boyle. I think DW has been promising too many things that he might not be able to deliver. He says that Havlat is definitely gone but maybe he finds out later Hasso isn't willing to spend money on a buyout and now noone wants to trade for Havlat so he's stuck with him. He says there will be a rebuild but is not willing to ask Thornton and Marleau to waive and they don't want to leave so he can't make good on the rebuild promise either.

I'm willing to let things play out but if it's July 1st and Havlat's on the team, yup. DW just popped off like an Internet poster... and if it's mid-August and Joe and Patty are on the team and there are no other major changes, you can bet the heat will ratchet up. Many fans will just tune out this regular season, I bet.

It'd be probably the worst of all scenarios - we don't get started on a rebuild but we don't improve the team.

Purgatory.

 

[Hobocop]

I'm willing to let things play out but if it's July 1st and Havlat's on the team, yup. DW just popped off like an Internet poster... and if it's mid-August and Joe and Patty are on the team and there are no other major changes, you can bet the heat will ratchet up. Many fans will just tune out this regular season, I bet.

It'd be probably the worst of all scenarios - we don't get started on a rebuild but we don't improve the team.

Purgatory.

Many fans will just tune out this regular season, based on the team coming back. You seriously think that? You think that if they started on this rebuild which will apparently end all our woes, jettisoned all the popular players on the team, replaced them with unknown faces, and started losing hard, your average Sharks fan would tune in and go "All right. Much better." Sure.

As far as compliance buyouts go, if we're really doing this rebuild (and as you can tell, I'd much rather go with the "improve the team" option), I'd have to ask why we buy anyone out. Wouldn't we already have a ton of cap space? What'd be the point?

 

[Gilligans Island]

Many fans will just tune out this regular season, based on the team coming back. You seriously think that? You think that if they started on this rebuild which will apparently end all our woes, jettisoned all the popular players on the team, replaced them with unknown faces, and started losing hard, your average Sharks fan would tune in and go "All right. Much better." Sure.

As far as compliance buyouts go, if we're really doing this rebuild (and as you can tell, I'd much rather go with the "improve the team" option), I'd have to ask why we buy anyone out. Wouldn't we already have a ton of cap space? What'd be the point?

I wish they'd track no shows like other sports do. Bet that increases and I bet the tank won't be as loud. If you don't think this fan base is jaded as hell, I don't know what to tell you

On Havlat, like I said above, doesn't matter if we do or not really if we don't need the space

 

[Led Zappa]

I wish they'd track no shows like other sports do. Bet that increases and I bet the tank won't be as loud. If you don't think this fan base is jaded as hell, I don't know what to tell you

On Havlat, like I said above, doesn't matter if we do or not really if we don't need the space

He's still a roster spot since he can't be sent down. He needs to go.

 

[Hobocop]

I wish they'd track no shows like other sports do. Bet that increases and I bet the tank won't be as loud. If you don't think this fan base is jaded as hell, I don't know what to tell you

On Havlat, like I said above, doesn't matter if we do or not really if we don't need the space

Yeah, the Havlat comment wasn't really directed at you, more of a general thing.

I have no idea what point you're even trying to make with this last post. What scenario are casual fans more likely to no-show for, another regular season like last year's, or one in which we have all-new players and are in last place?

 

[Gilligans Island]

He's still a roster spot since he can't be sent down. He needs to go.

You are rich (pun intended) ;-)

You suspect the moves being made thus far are financially driven but when it comes to Havlat, you're willing to throw out Plattner's $4m.

If we don't need the $5M in cap space, we really don't have to buy him out.

That said, I'd be surprised if he wasn't bought out.

Yeah, the Havlat comment wasn't really directed at you, more of a general thing.

I have no idea what point you're even trying to make with this last post. What scenario are casual fans more likely to no-show for, another regular season like last year's, or one in which we have all-new players and are in last place?

You're exaggerating by saying "we'll have all new players" and "are in last place".

I don't know how long you've been a Sharks fan but from what I can tell in going to a few games last year (and watching all games on TV), there are a lot more empty seats (despite the sellout status) than when I was a STH (gave it up a few seasons ago). The crowd isn't as loud as seasons past. Also, other STHs have said it's getting harder to sell their tickets, too. Add it all up and that's a jaded fanbase.

That jaded fanbase would come back if a rebuild (not a full teardown since you seem to gravitate to that extreme) was done properly.

 

[Led Zappa]

You are rich (pun intended) ;-)

You suspect the moves being made thus far are financially driven but when it comes to Havlat, you're willing to throw out Plattner's $4m.

If we don't need the $5M in cap space, we really don't have to buy him out.

That said, I'd be surprised if he wasn't bought out.

Just because I think most of this is about money doesn't mean reality goes away. They don't want Havlat, They've said he's gone and you don't waste a roster spot on somebody you aren't going to play. Not when you're are literally stuck with JT and Marleau if they don't want to go. You can dump him and still not spend the CAP space.

Keeping Havlat when you can buy him out goes completely against their "getting younger" crusade. But hey, lets keep him. Love to see him taking up a roster spot that could go to a kid.

BTW: He'd be gone regardless of any plans the Sharks org put forth if I had my way.

 

[WTFetus]

Add it all up and that's a jaded fanbase.

That jaded fanbase would come back if a rebuild (not a full teardown since you seem to gravitate to that extreme) was done properly.

Or, you know, increased ticket prices. Add that in with a rebuild and it'll be worse for a while before it gets better.

 

[Gilligans Island]

Just because I think most of this is about money doesn't mean reality goes away. They don't want Havlat, They've said he's gone and you don't waste a roster spot on somebody you aren't going to play. Not when you're are literally stuck with JT and Marleau if they don't want to go. You can dump him and still not spend the CAP space.

Keeping Havlat when you can buy him out goes completely against their "getting younger" crusade. But hey, lets keep him. Love to see him taking up a roster spot that could go to a kid.

BTW: He'd be gone regardless of any plans the Sharks org put forth if I had my way.

We're on the same page. I see no point in not buying him out.
I was just pointing out (academically) that we could keep him.

 

[Gilligans Island]

Or, you know, increased ticket prices. Add that in with a rebuild and it'll be worse for a while before it gets better.

I don't know what the average ticket price increase has been over the past few seasons. Didn't they institute dynamic pricing this past season (or the season prior) and in practice, some games didn't increase in price overall (e.g., weekday games vs. Jets or Predators)?

I'm pretty willing to bet the jadedness in our fanbase is due to the playoff losses year over year, not ticket prices.

Now if they were allowed to go through a proper rebuild, I could see the org holding prices (like they did this year) to maintain the STH base. They'd almost have to.

 

[Hobocop]

You're exaggerating by saying "we'll have all new players" and "are in last place".

I don't know how long you've been a Sharks fan but from what I can tell in going to a few games last year (and watching all games on TV), there are a lot more empty seats (despite the sellout status) than when I was a STH (gave it up a few seasons ago). The crowd isn't as loud as seasons past. Also, other STHs have said it's getting harder to sell their tickets, too. Add it all up and that's a jaded fanbase.

That jaded fanbase would come back if a rebuild (not a full teardown since you seem to gravitate to that extreme) was done properly.

Oh, don't pull the "I don't know how long you've been a Sharks fan" on me. Give me a break. I've been a season ticket holder for the last few years on top of it, and it's no different from last year, or the year before. There's empty seats. Always has been. And now you'll argue it is, and I'll say it isn't. Not interested.

What exactly do you think a rebuild is typically considered on here? Trade veterans, acquire prospects. I also like that you've given me the only point I've even contested you on by saying that they'd "come back." As in, they'd tune it out this coming season. Which is seriously the only thing I've even said. So, thanks. Enjoy your doom and gloom.

 

[WTFetus]

I'm pretty willing to bet the jadedness in our fanbase is due to the playoff losses year over year, not ticket prices.

Now if they were allowed to go through a proper rebuild, I could see the org holding prices (like they did this year) to maintain the STH base. They'd almost have to.

I'd say it's a mix of both lack of success and ticket prices. Doesn't take away from the fact that a rebuild will lower ticket sales even more.
Didn't Hasso say a few months ago that the team can't do a prototypical rebuild since they'll lose too much in ticket sales?

 

[Gilligans Island]

I'd say it's a mix of both lack of success and ticket prices. Doesn't take away from the fact that a rebuild will lower ticket sales even more.
Didn't Hasso say a few months ago that the team can't do a prototypical rebuild since they'll lose too much in ticket sales?

I can see that being the causes for the jadedness. Tough on anyone to generate enthusiasm when the product doesn't ultimately deliver.

Hasso doesn't speak to the media directly but DW basically parroted what you wrote.
It's a quandary the team's in. DW has mostly acknowledged that, I think.

 

[Alwalys]

There is no such thing as a "proper rebuild" ... if there was a formula every team would follow it. A lot comes down to luck as to how players pan out.

The most proper rebuild is one in which the team never sucks yet is competitive year after year. You know, what we're doing.

Any moves which make the team terrible or close to it at any time are extremely risky.

It should be noted that most of the modern Cup winners are still benefiting massively from the start of the cap era ... being in suck mode just before a cap kicks in is a huge benefit, since you will end up with a lot of young talent while the established successful teams will not be able to spend to pull away.

 

[SJeasy]

I can see that being the causes for the jadedness. Tough on anyone to generate enthusiasm when the product doesn't ultimately deliver.

Hasso doesn't speak to the media directly but DW basically parroted what you wrote.
It's a quandary the team's in. DW has mostly acknowledged that, I think.

The thing is that I think the fanbase is changing. It used to be playoff misses that hurt tickets. The lack of price increase was out of character with past org behavior. Probably an indicator of fan backlash for performance. They don't make pricing decisions in a vaccum. WT's point about Plattner and financials makes the issue more interesting.

There is no such thing as a "proper rebuild" ... if there was a formula every team would follow it. A lot comes down to luck as to how players pan out.

The most proper rebuild is one in which the team never sucks yet is competitive year after year. You know, what we're doing.

Any moves which make the team terrible or close to it at any time are extremely risky.

It should be noted that most of the modern Cup winners are still benefiting massively from the start of the cap era ... being in suck mode just before a cap kicks in is a huge benefit, since you will end up with a lot of young talent while the established successful teams will not be able to spend to pull away.

Detroit is the one team that rebuilt with no pain. They did it by landing Datsyuk and Z late and picking up Franzen out of the blue. I think it is instructive to see what is currently happening to Detroit and they were older than SJ on the age curve. Detroit is likely facing some time outside of the playoffs because they haven't found those magic pieces late in the draft lately. Tatar and Nyqvist would have to breakout even further and they would have to find another Lidstrom to avoid the pain of rebuild. They have both barrels squarely on them as opposed to SJ due to age. In another couple of years, SJ will be in their position unless SJ comes up with some draft magic.

Detroit is an anomaly because of their drafting. They draft for puck skills first, de-emphasizing size and speed. It was a formula that worked late in the draft to get those elite players. And, Detroit played a system that wasn't size dependent although they could occasionally be defeated by size. SJ doesn't play that system and they follow the crowd in terms of size, essentially drafting in the same pond that 28 other teams fish in.

 

[JayP812]

The thing is that I think the fanbase is changing. It used to be playoff misses that hurt tickets. The lack of price increase was out of character with past org behavior. Probably an indicator of fan backlash for performance. They don't make pricing decisions in a vaccum. WT's point about Plattner and financials makes the issue more interesting.

Detroit is the one team that rebuilt with no pain. They did it by landing Datsyuk and Z late and picking up Franzen out of the blue. I think it is instructive to see what is currently happening to Detroit and they were older than SJ on the age curve. Detroit is likely facing some time outside of the playoffs because they haven't found those magic pieces late in the draft lately. Tatar and Nyqvist would have to breakout even further and they would have to find another Lidstrom to avoid the pain of rebuild. They have both barrels squarely on them as opposed to SJ due to age. In another couple of years, SJ will be in their position unless SJ comes up with some draft magic.

Exactly. All the anti-rebuild folks are banking on us replicating something one franchise has done in today's NHL. We just have to face it, unless some of our prospects dramatically improve, the way we get a future is having to go through a few losing seasons before we can contend again.

 

[SharksFan1]

20% chance Niemi is bought out? I'd have him at a cool 0. He is worth at least a second and can be traded. Why would we ever choose the buyout option?

This was my though as well. I don't think there is any chance he will be bought out.

 

[OrrNumber4]

The thing is that I think the fanbase is changing. It used to be playoff misses that hurt tickets. The lack of price increase was out of character with past org behavior. Probably an indicator of fan backlash for performance. They don't make pricing decisions in a vaccum. WT's point about Plattner and financials makes the issue more interesting.

Detroit is the one team that rebuilt with no pain. They did it by landing Datsyuk and Z late and picking up Franzen out of the blue. I think it is instructive to see what is currently happening to Detroit and they were older than SJ on the age curve. Detroit is likely facing some time outside of the playoffs because they haven't found those magic pieces late in the draft lately. Tatar and Nyqvist would have to breakout even further and they would have to find another Lidstrom to avoid the pain of rebuild. They have both barrels squarely on them as opposed to SJ due to age. In another couple of years, SJ will be in their position unless SJ comes up with some draft magic.

Do you think that Hertl qualifies as draft magic?

IMO, Detroit's drafting comes down to Hakan Anderson, and his willingness to scout Europe back when all the other teams thought that was a losing proposition. Where is the next similar thing? The next hotbed of talent that everyone has overlooked...

 

[CraigsList]

Hi Sharks' fans. I was just wondering if you'd give up your 2nd to move Havlat to us?


Havlat
51st OA (SJ's 2nd)


83rd OA (Pens' 3rd)

Perhaps the wrong thread to put it in, but I know you guys were thinking of buying him out. This saves you the trouble.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Hi Sharks' fans. I was just wondering if you'd give up your 2nd to move Havlat to us?


Havlat
51st OA (SJ's 2nd)


83rd OA (Pens' 3rd)

Plattner saves ~3 million just to move down 30 spots? I think he takes that deal...

 

[Gene Parmesan]

I think DW will try and move Havlat over the weekend but ultimately they will use a CBO on him.

 

[weastern bias]

Isn't Stuart eligible?

I'd think he's more likely to get CBO'd than half the guys on the list

 

[LadyStanley]

Isn't Stuart eligible?

I'd think he's more likely to get CBO'd than half the guys on the list

Yes, he's one of seven possible compliance buyouts. (Although 3 won't even be attempted: Braun, Burns, Vlasic)

 

[SJeasy]

Do you think that Hertl qualifies as draft magic?

IMO, Detroit's drafting comes down to Hakan Anderson, and his willingness to scout Europe back when all the other teams thought that was a losing proposition. Where is the next similar thing? The next hotbed of talent that everyone has overlooked...

If Hertl can surpass MacKinnon and Seguin from his draft position, he is draft magic. I highly doubt that happens.

Draft magic is a franchise player after the top 5 like Keith, Subban, Dats, Z, Karlsson, etc.

Europe is currently in a minor decline in terms of the draft. I am not sure that it is justified. I do know that Stevie Y. hit Europe hard to rebuild his team and it seems to be working. I don't think that he has had a late magic pick yet, but I do think that he scored some high end complementary pieces. He may not need magic picks with Stamkos, Drouin and Hedman. He may only need to work the complementary players.

 

[Gene Parmesan]

If Hertl can surpass MacKinnon and Seguin from his draft position, he is draft magic. I highly doubt that happens.

Draft magic is a franchise player after the top 5 like Keith, Subban, Dats, Z, Karlsson, etc.

Europe is currently in a minor decline in terms of the draft. I am not sure that it is justified. I do know that Stevie Y. hit Europe hard to rebuild his team and it seems to be working. I don't think that he has had a late magic pick yet, but I do think that he scored some high end complementary pieces. He may not need magic picks with Stamkos, Drouin and Hedman. He may only need to work the complementary players.

Why would Hertl need to surpass them when he was drafted in 2012?