Speculation: Comparing this season to last.

[EakinsMVP]

I agree that a strong system is much more beneficial to the goaltender but look at it from this perspective.

...

I agree with your point.

I also think that one of the issues is that we get into positions to fail long before these last minute blunders. The fact is, we have average to below average goaltending, and a few weak goals should be expected - that's just the life of not having an elite goalie. The problem is that we're going into the second period down 1-2 goals almost every game, how many times can you actually expect us to pull off a comeback? I'm not defending Talbot, but we knew he wasn't going to be a game changer for us, so we can't rely on him to be solid every game. You don't win games by playing catch up every 3rd period and praying we last long enough to get a loser point - first step would be to stop ******** the bed in the first and stop taking terrible offensive zone penalties. Our bottom 6 and ******** defensive brainfarts are losing us the games before these last minute game winning goals even take place.

 

[PaPaDee]

Visually, we do look a lot better than anytime last year. You can tell the guys are getting adjusted to and buying into TM's system.

They've also had a much tougher schedule to start this year, and a lot of injuries (have yet to ice our regular line-up).

 

[Stainsy]

I agree with most posters on this thread, the team does look better. One thing that is really standing out to me is that our top two lines (sans McDavid) are creating matchup problems for the other team. When Hall, RNH and Draisaitl were together, they were getting a lot of offensive zone time, and the other lines not so much since McDavid is out. When we get healthy, and McDavid back, should get back to that.

Really, not having at least six more points is because of some very bad luck, bad goaltending at the end of games, and some cheezy calls that didn't go our way. This team is better, hopefully, the guys keep plugging, and working hard. The last game against LA, should have had a better result, and we didn't even have RNH. That team played with some heart, and that is something I haven't seen on this team in a long time.

 

[Beerfish]

The team is still trash once mcdavid went down. Our bottom six is terrible, we have a few 'leech' players that produce a bit but only if they are handed top level linemates and juicy ice time. (Purcell, Pouliot). the goaltending is as bad as it has been the last few years.

As I said last year, for all the grief our suspect D takes our goaltending makes them look much worse.

Probably the number one reason why this team spins its wheels? The skilled top 6 is totally incapable of all playing well at the same time. they take turns.

Hall and Draisaitl playing awesome right now? RNH is off and on Eberle is doing nothing, Yak is doing nothing McDavid hurt.

to start the year McDavid and Yak are awesome, drai in the minors eberle hurt, Hall and RNH are doing nothing.

It's been like this for years our top line guys can never play really well at the same time.

 

[NeverForget06]

Team is much better this year so far. Last year, we would get our *** kicked from the top of the roster all the way down. This year, our top guys are actually holding their own or even coming out ahead against the other teams best players. Our depth has completely let us down this year.

Also some pretty brutal luck. Talbot just gave away games in the last minute to the Kings and Flames and we all know we tied the first game against the Kings as well. Should probably have an extra 3-4 points right now no doubt.

Then you wonder what our record could have been if we didn't send Draisaitl down to the AHL for no good reason at the start of the year.

I like this post. You are right in many ways. I would say the closest we've come to a performance that would remind me of last year was actually the last game against Arizona. Overall though we've been able to hold our own most nights and are a bounce away from winning.

 

[CupofOil]

Is it?

I think that's asking a little much if you ask me because Talbot isn't playing for the Rangers anymore. Let's say you, me and our buddies are playing on the back end, is it fair to expect Talbot to do much? Compared to the support that the goalies on the top 10 teams get, it's pretty sad.

It's not an individual sport. It's a team sport. Yes, Talbot is there to make saves, but at what point is he expected to continue to play at his best when our d-men are making so many mistakes? The whole idea of a team buying into a system relies on the team believing in the system. When the players are doing what they're expected to be doing so much easier for all the players on the team to do their job. They don't get caught off guard or pulled out of their established comfort zone.

If our players aren't coughing up the puck at the worst possible moments I'm pretty sure our goalie doesn't feel like he's in a trench on a battlefield. I don't think that Talbot was accustomed to this constant state of chaos in New York.

Look at what Chris Osgood did in Detroit. He was by no means a great goalie. Famous for letting in tons of goals on the 5 hole position, let he won a stanley cup and he won TONS of games because his team was able to play a calm consistent game. If Osgood were in his prime now playing for Edmonton, he'd probably be letting in 3-5 goals per game.

The defense hasn't been as bad as you're saying.
Don't get me wrong, the D is a problem that needs to be fixed but the ten bell scoring chances have been minimized compared to last season. I wish there was a stat to prove this but I'm not good at digging up embedded stats like that.

There have been countless times when Talbot had let in saveable shots in the 3rd.
This stat is extremely telling.... "Talbot's 3-8-0 record has seen him allow the game-winning goal in the third period of all 8 losses, all in regulation, natch. In 6 of those cases the score was tied with less than 12 minutes to play, in three of them it was tied with less than 3½ minutes left."....
Granted, some of that is on the defense without a doubt but at some point, you have to make a big save to bail out the team and outside of the first few games, he hasn't made one that I can recall and some of those goals that he let in were absolutely unforgiveable.

I believe in Talbot and think that he will be better as the team gets healthier but he needs to get over this mental roadblock that he's suffering from because I think it's more mental than physical at this point.

 

[LTIR]

This year vs Last year...

This year we have hope to turn things around. (Nilsson, Schultz, McDavid and McLellan) Last year the bunch was hopeless by end of November.

Klefbom-Petry, Ference-Fayne, Nikitin-Schultz
vs
Sekera-Nurse, Klefbom-Schultz, Reinhart-Gryba

 

[0ilerman]

This year vs Last year...

This year we have hope to turn things around. (Nilsson, Schultz, McDavid and McLellan) Last year the bunch was hopeless by end of November.

Klefbom-Petry, Ference-Fayne, Nikitin-Schultz
vs
Sekera-Nurse, Klefbom-Schultz, Reinhart-Gryba

2 home losses away from being hopeless by the end of November again.
Dead last already.
This tunnel is long and dark.

 

[Stoneman89]

The team is still trash once mcdavid went down. Our bottom six is terrible, we have a few 'leech' players that produce a bit but only if they are handed top level linemates and juicy ice time. (Purcell, Pouliot). the goaltending is as bad as it has been the last few years.

As I said last year, for all the grief our suspect D takes our goaltending makes them look much worse.

Probably the number one reason why this team spins its wheels? The skilled top 6 is totally incapable of all playing well at the same time. they take turns.

Hall and Draisaitl playing awesome right now? RNH is off and on Eberle is doing nothing, Yak is doing nothing McDavid hurt.

to start the year McDavid and Yak are awesome, drai in the minors eberle hurt, Hall and RNH are doing nothing.

It's been like this for years our top line guys can never play really well at the same time.

Tough for Eberle to play well when he was on IR and Nuge when he missed a game with sickness. Prior to that, Nuge was going nicely with Drai and Hall. Ebs will pick it up once he gets some more games in, and I think it will be very soon. These guys aren't robots that break down and then you put in a few parts, wind them up and say go. It takes a bit of time to get back in the swing of things. The core forwards on this team are NOT the problem, by any stretch. The injuries have hurt big time, especially on the bottom 6. Insert Korpi, Klink and Hendricks with any combo of another 3 and it is a decent bottom grouping.

The thing that has killed us this year has been injuries to key people, vets that were counted upon crapping the bed, and lack of good goaltending. One bad goal a game is doing us in, and it would do any team in, no matter how good. Once Talbot gets his head out of his arse, Nilsson gets some more games in, and we can remove some junk from the D (Fayne, Ference), I think things will turn around rather rapidly. Klefa is really coming on, Nurse and Reinhart are getting valuable experience, and I have no doubt Chia will make sure some other spots get filled in later once we get through the cap hell we're in right now. Way too many remnants of the past incompetent management either playing for us, or collecting huge salaries (and taking up valuable cap room) while playing in the minors or sitting in the PB. That's a lot of cash to go get some good players to complement the core.

 

[Stoneman89]

2 home losses away from being hopeless by the end of November again.
Dead last already.
This tunnel is long and dark.

The good news is that our division is garbage as well.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

The good news is that our division is garbage as well.

That actually makes everything worse. The division is **** and we're still in the basement.

 

[LTIR]

2 home losses away from being hopeless by the end of November again.
Dead last already.
This tunnel is long and dark.

Nope. There is still hope of better times in the form of McDavid's return. Its not the same. Fans last year wanted everyone traded and fired in December 2014. It wont be the same this year. We will hold out hope of better times (not playoffs) because the savior will return sometimes in January.

 

[LTIR]

That actually makes everything worse. The division is **** and we're still in the basement.

depends on the way you are looking at things. Despite the record we are 7 points away from a playoffs spot. 10 points from division lead.

 

[awesomo]

they look better but this is a missed opportunity as the rest of hte division isnt very good right now.

they need to hang in there stay within that 10 pt cushion.

 

[Stoneman89]

That actually makes everything worse. The division is **** and we're still in the basement.

It doesn't say much for us, but the point is, is that the mountain is not nearly as steep as it was last year.

 

[Stoneman89]

Nope. There is still hope of better times in the form of McDavid's return. Its not the same. Fans last year wanted everyone traded and fired in December 2014. It wont be the same this year. We will hold out hope of better times (not playoffs) because the savior will return sometimes in January.

I think the timing would be awesome if he came back around December 25th.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

It doesn't say much for us, but the point is, is that the mountain is not nearly as steep as it was last year.

The division wasn't great last year either. Difference is that the Coyotes and Flames have switched spots.

depends on the way you are looking at things. Despite the record we are 7 points away from a playoffs spot. 10 points from division lead.

You actually have to start winning for that to matter. Or at least get to OT. We're 6 games below .500 already. We have to go on a 6 game winning streak just to get back to .500.

 

[Beerfish]

McDavid proved to me that he after 15 games as an 18 year old he is already the best player on our team. He made Yak relevant and as expected Yak turned into a pumpkin the moment McDavid go hurt.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

McDavid proved to me that he after 15 games as an 18 year old he is already the best player on our team. He made Yak relevant and as expected Yak turned into a pumpkin the moment McDavid go hurt.

The Oilers miss McDavid in the worst way. I have no doubt they'd win a few more of those close games if he was around.

But, you know, it's always Yak's linemates fault. Never his own.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Stats from last season:

http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2015.html

SRS rating for the entire season was -1.01 which takes into account goal differential and strength of schedule. That was the 3rd worst rating in the NHL last season.

Their SOS (strength of schedule) last season was .03... just slightly above the league average for difficulty.



Stats from this season:

http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2016.html

SRS rating so far is -.57 which again takes into account goal differential and strength of schedule. That is the 6th worst rating in the NHL this season.

Their SOS (strength of schedule) this season is .04... again just slightly above the league average for difficulty.


Overall it's clear they are an improved team... going from 3rd worst in SRS rating to 6th worst in SRS rating.

I think the big issue is that they were VERY bad last season so even a relatively significant improvement this year makes them at best a mediocre team.

They have had injuries yes... but so do many teams so that's really not a valid excuse. Good teams manage to get by when injuries hit... but obviously the Oilers are not a "good team" which is why they need all their guns healthy and firing to come close to anything resembling an above mediocre team.

I honestly don't think we can expect the team to be 100% healthy all season. McDavid is gone for a good chunk, Eberle was gone for a good chunk at the start... and other mid level to minor pieces are consistently out as well. There's no reason to believe the team won't continue to have injury issues this season going forward. They simply have to be better at having assets being able to cope and fill those holes when players are out because the injury excuse wears thin pretty quickly.

It's part of being a good org to be able to have the depth and assets to fill holes when injuries hit instead of falling apart and constantly blaming mediocre performances on injuries.

 

[NewBoysClub97*]

Visually, we do look a lot better than anytime last year. You can tell the guys are getting adjusted to and buying into TM's system.

They've also had a much tougher schedule to start this year, and a lot of injuries (have yet to ice our regular line-up).

Were at about the 12th hardest so far. Toronto had the hardest. Calgary a little harder than us. Vancouver has had the third easiest lol

 

[dustrock]

Stats aside, the fact last year that they didn't best a WC opponent until December says it all

 

[McOvechking]

With a healthy roster, I think we'd be doing a lot better right now. When McDavid was going, Hall wasn't. Now that Hall's going, McDavid is out. If they're both going on different lines, we become nearly unstoppable.

Before McDavid got injured we hadn't brought up Draisaitl and Nurse yet (I don't think) who have both been excellent so far.

 

[Jepprey]

We do "look" better overall if you're comparing to the Eakins days, but I want to wait until this team ices a healthy lineup with McDavid and Eberle both in the same game. Also, banged up guys like Hendricks and Korpo consistently in the bottom six.

 

[Crobby]

Last year 5 of our first 6 wins were against the East lol.

We just need a road trip obviously