Speculation: Comparing this season to last.

[thadd]

Oct:

5-2 Loss - Calgary
5-4 SO loss - Vancouver
6-1 Loss - LA
4-7 Loss - Arizona
2-0 Loss - Vancouver
2-3 Win - Tampa
2-3 Win - Washington
6-3 Win - Calgary
0-3 Win - Montreal
4-1 Loss - Nashville

5 Wins (38.5%)
6 Losses - 1 by 1 goal. (16.6% of losses come by 1 goal margin)
Got 1 OT or SO loss.

November:

2-3 Loss - Vancouver
1-4 Loss - Philly
2-5 Loss - Boston
3-2 Win - Buffalo
3-1 Win - Rangers
2-3 Loss - Nashville
4-3 SO Loss - Ottawa
2-1 Loss - Arizona

2 wins (25%)
6 losses - 4 by 1 goal (66.6% of losses come by 1 goal margin)
Got 1 OT or SO loss



And Let's compare to this season.

October:

5-2 Loss - Vancouver
2-3 SO Loss - Vancouver
3-1 Loss - St. Louis
0-2 Loss - Nashville
4-2 Loss - Dallas
4-2 Loss - St. Louis
5-2 Win - Calgary
2-1 Win - Vancouver
3-1 Win - Detroit
7-4 Loss - Washington
3-2 Loss - LA
4-3 Loss - Minny
3-4 Win - Montreal
5-4 Loss - Calgary

4 wins (28.5% compared to 38.5% last season)
10 Losses - 4 by 1 goal (16.6% of losses come by 1 goal margin. 37.5% last year)
Got 1 SO or OT loss. Same as last season

November:

2-4 Win - Philly
2-1 Loss - Pittsburg
4-2 Loss - Chicago
4-3 Win - Anaheim
4-1 Loss - Arizona
3-4 Loss - LA

2 wins (33.3% 25% last year)
4 Losses - 2 by 1 goal (50% of losses come by margin of 1 goal compared to 66.6% last year)
No SO or OT losses. 1 less than last year.

With 12 PTS in 20 games we're tied for last in the NHL. Last year we had 14 PTS in 18 games last season.
We've allowed 58 goals in 20 games. 4th most in the NHL. 3.22 goals allowed per game. Also 4th most in the NHL. Last year we had 60 goals in 15 games. 4 goals allowed per game.
We've scored 47 goals in 20 games. 14th best in the NHL. 2.61 goals scored per game. 17th best. Last year we scored 42 goals in 15 games. 2.8 goals scored per game.

That's all the numbers I'm going to crack that compares last season to this season. But here's the rest for where we're at this year.

Power play is 10th best at 21.1%.
Penalty kill is at 22nd at 78.9%
Shots on goals is at 25th at 28.2 shots on goal per game.
Shots allowed is at 15th at 29.7 shots allowed per game.
Face off win % is at 26th at 48.5% of face offs won.



If you look at the numbers I think it's clear that the team needs to make some moves. It's all just a matter of when. Considering the large amount of deal weight coming off of the books at the end of the year (Purcell, Scrivens and Nikitin) I think it's fair to say that moves have to be on the horizon.

I don't think it's possible to imagine Edmonton trading Sekera, Klefbom or Nurse. Trading one of these guys to get a real #1 d-man leaves us with a huge lack of depth on the blueline.

We've got 6 top six forwards in Hopkins, Mcdavid, Leon, Yakupov, Eberle and Hall and Pouliot has shown good chemistry with both Hopkins and Mcdavid in the past, so you could say 7. Is it realistic to expect Edmonton to trade 2 of these guys for a couple of d-men and maybe some bottom six depth?

I really don't see how trading just one of these guys is going to fix the Oilers.

Pouliot-Mcdavid-Yakupov/Eberle
Hall- Leon/Hopkins - New guy
Don't get me started on our bottom six it gives me huge headaches.

That's what our group of forwards look like to me right now. We've got a few bottom six players who're playing OK, but in general, it's a huge mess.

Nurse - _____
Klefbom - Sekera
______ - ______
Reinhart/Schultz/Gryba/Fayne

And that's what I think of our d-men at this point. I don't think that Nurse is a 1st pairing guy right now, but I do see him being our best guy right now and I think he'll hold onto that for the long term. Not sold on Reinhart. He needs to work on his speed. Schultz matches up well against some teams. But I don't like having him in the line-up every night. Gryba can be using sparingly in some situations and the puck absolutely LOVES to bounce off of Fayne and into the net.

I'm fine with our goaltending. I'd honestly be OK with extending both of these guys to 3 year contracts as long as they don't want too much money. Would expect less than 5M cap hit for the both of them combined. Sure you can complain about their sad save percentages, but I'm a firm believer that it's a product of playing for the Oilers right now.

Get us some depth on the blueline and a few bottom six forwards who can put up a few points while pressuring the opposition into coughing up the puck and I'm sure that our goalies would be putting up much better numbers.

One thing that's really frustrating is the big pink elephant who's quickly making himself into the room and that's our place in the standings and how many games are left in the season. If we keep losing the way we have been it'll be really awkward for us to trade our first rounder unless the trade goes down right before the draft.

In theory it could be possible for Edmonton to make a deal that gets them great value for their 1st rounder and then turn around and make another trade involving one of our forwards to make us a better team to insure that we're not giving up such a prized draft pick, but given how few trades we see in the NHL these days I think it's safe to say that's a pretty unrealistic scenario.

Oh, woe is me. What are we to do?

Click to read more...

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

We need a proven #1 goalie.


I wouldn't sign Talbot. He's just a guy at this point. Not a #1.

 

[Bangers]

It sucks that the results don't show it, but the team's play is way better than last year's.

This year, I'm at least hopeful the team can put it together and start winning some games, especially once players start coming back from injury.

Last year, the team was a train wreck from the beginning (Eakins's 'extended training camp') and everyone coukd see the team just wasn't going to improve.

 

[thadd]

We need a proven #1 goalie.


I wouldn't sign Talbot. He's just a guy at this point. Not a #1.

Are there any proven goalies out there who don't have a half decent group of d-men in front of them? Until we fix our blueline we'll just be a graveyard for goalies like Philly has been over the years.

 

[Narnia]

Eakins didn't have as many injuries last year that the team has this year. Big factor is 16 points and not nearly as many injuries for Eakins.

 

[thadd]

It sucks that the results don't show it, but the team's play is way better than last year's.

This year, I'm at least hopeful the team can put it together and start winning some games, especially once players start coming back from injury.

Last year, the team was a train wreck from the beginning (Eakins's 'extended training camp') and everyone could see the team just wasn't going to improve.

I agree. You don't see the players giving up on games this year. Last year they'd sometimes give up after being down a single goal.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

Are there any proven goalies out there who don't have a half decent group of d-men in front of them? Until we fix our blueline we'll just be a graveyard for goalies like Philly has been over the years.

I agree somewhat. However this year our team has given us excellent efforts only to be kiboshed by a Talbot brainfart. Kings game & Flames game as prime examples.

Yes our defense is prone to mistakes but for **** sakes our goalies need to stop letting in easy goals.

 

[Game 8]

Lots of very interesting parts this year and some depth which is different. I wouldnt panic this year if we can get the top d in the draft and build from there lookout. I attribute 6 points to very bad goaltending. Also would not give Talbot the money there will be lots of other options out there over the off season.

 

[Narnia]

I agree. You don't see the players giving up on games this year. Last year they'd sometimes give up after being down a single goal.

Oilers were 6-10-2 for 14 points, not 16 points. Also team had lost 29 man-games to injury and this year so far they've lost 61 man-game due to injury.

 

[TheRebuild]

The thing that impresses me the most is the commitment to consistency on a year-by-year basis. Despite all the personnel changes, new coach, new goalie, this team has achieved the exact same results as last year, and I for one have to applaud them for that, it's not an easy league to achieve consistent results in.

 

[thadd]

Eakins didn't have as many injuries last year that the team has this year. Big factor is 16 points and not nearly as many injuries for Eakins.

I agree here too. Mcdavid's absence is hurting us and before that we had Eberle out, but if we had been healthy all year is it realistic to think that we'd be competing for a playoff spot? I think not. Do we have a group of d-men who are expected to raise their level enough to make us competitors in the future? Again, I have my doubts.

Another thing about Eakins is that the team never worked hard for him. In the beginning they didn't understand what he wanted and in the second season they had no use for him. This season the team is actually working their ***** off for the coach and we're tied for worst.

Last year I think Hopkins had a really short training camp because he was getting over an injury and we were missing Gagner. Also, Petry was in the dog house for some off-ice drama with the coach.

I think it's safe to say we were in an equally crappy situation last year.

 

[Narnia]

The first 3 games in October last year were pre-season games and shouldn't be added. This year the first 2 games in October were pre-season games and shouldn't be added. The Oilers first game this season was October 8 against the Blues in St. Louis. Last year the first game was against October 9 at home against Calgary.

 

[thadd]

I agree somewhat. However this year our team has given us excellent efforts only to be kiboshed by a Talbot brainfart. Kings game & Flames game as prime examples.

Yes our defense is prone to mistakes but for **** sakes our goalies need to stop letting in easy goals.

Yet we didn't see this out of Talbot in New York last year. His stats were amazing. Why? I think it's because New York had the blueline depth to allow the goalies to relax a bit more. When the goalie is constantly under much more pressure than the opposing goalie, it most likely bothers the hell out of him.

I think Carey Price is hyped up so much because he isn't putting these numbers up behind an overloaded blueline.

 

[thadd]

The first 3 games in October last year were pre-season games and shouldn't be added. This year the first 2 games in October were pre-season games and shouldn't be added. The Oilers first game this season was October 8 against the Blues in St. Louis. Last year the first game was against October 9 at home against Calgary.

Oh crap sorry about that. I need to go back and fix that!

 

[Narnia]

I agree here too. Mcdavid's absence is hurting us and before that we had Eberle out, but if we had been healthy all year is it realistic to think that we'd be competing for a playoff spot? I think not. Do we have a group of d-men who are expected to raise their level enough to make us competitors in the future? Again, I have my doubts.

Another thing about Eakins is that the team never worked hard for him. In the beginning they didn't understand what he wanted and in the second season they had no use for him. This season the team is actually working their ***** off for the coach and we're tied for worst.

Last year I think Hopkins had a really short training camp because he was getting over an injury and we were missing Gagner. Also, Petry was in the dog house for some off-ice drama with the coach.

I think it's safe to say we were in an equally crappy situation last year.

You've got the wrong year. Gagner wasn't with the team last season and RNH started the season with the Oilers. You're talking about 2013-14 season as that's when RNH missed the first 2 games and Gagner missed 13 games from an injury in pre-season from Kassian.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

Yet we didn't see this out of Talbot in New York last year. His stats were amazing. Why? I think it's because New York had the blueline depth to allow the goalies to relax a bit more. When the goalie is constantly under much more pressure than the opposing goalie, it most likely bothers the hell out of him.

I think Carey Price is hyped up so much because he isn't putting these numbers up behind an overloaded blueline.

I disagree.

Talbot's job isn't to steal every game despite our crappy defense. I don't expect himto put up the same numbers as he did last year with the Rangers.

Talbot job is to not lose us any games. He's failed at that task repeatedly thus far this season.

 

[Mr Positive]

there are parallels from last season to this one, but what really made last season truly awful was that it only got worse as it went on. The beginning was actually decent. We were almost .500 at around the 15 game mark. After the implosion, the previous year of Eakins also added up to a very substantial body of work.

We're in year one of McLellan, actually just month 2. Me and others predicted we would start slow and finish strong. If we're in January and things aren't better, then maybe there is a point that is emerging. Right now it's not clear what we have here.

 

[K1984]

IMO the team has left around 3-4 wins on the table via either poor luck or miraculously defeating ourselves. I would put both LA games, the home game against the Flames, the Penguins game (4 posts, horrific officiating), and arguably the game against the Blackhawks in this category. There's no guarantee that we win any of the games that probably should have gone to OT, but we would have at least 3 more points and probably at least one W in there. Things wouldn't look quite as bad if things shook in our direction on these outings.

These are all of course "would have could have should have" games that we didn't get, but the point is these missed opportunities didn't exist in prior years. In the Eakins era we straight up didn't have any business being in 95% of the games we lost, we were a complete disaster. This season we are finding creative ways to throw games away with singular moments of ineptitude or stupidity.

I think this is more "fixable" than pervious issues, and I think that they will be sorted out over time either through competant management moves, or good coaching. These are two X factors that we have never had before. I'm confident that the right things will be done to make us better from an organizational perspective.

 

[thadd]

I disagree.

Talbot's job isn't to steal every game despite our crappy defense. I don't expect himto put up the same numbers as he did last year with the Rangers.

Talbot job is to not lose us any games. He's failed at that task repeatedly thus far this season.

Is it?

I think that's asking a little much if you ask me because Talbot isn't playing for the Rangers anymore. Let's say you, me and our buddies are playing on the back end, is it fair to expect Talbot to do much? Compared to the support that the goalies on the top 10 teams get, it's pretty sad.

It's not an individual sport. It's a team sport. Yes, Talbot is there to make saves, but at what point is he expected to continue to play at his best when our d-men are making so many mistakes? The whole idea of a team buying into a system relies on the team believing in the system. When the players are doing what they're expected to be doing so much easier for all the players on the team to do their job. They don't get caught off guard or pulled out of their established comfort zone.

If our players aren't coughing up the puck at the worst possible moments I'm pretty sure our goalie doesn't feel like he's in a trench on a battlefield. I don't think that Talbot was accustomed to this constant state of chaos in New York.

Look at what Chris Osgood did in Detroit. He was by no means a great goalie. Famous for letting in tons of goals on the 5 hole position, let he won a stanley cup and he won TONS of games because his team was able to play a calm consistent game. If Osgood were in his prime now playing for Edmonton, he'd probably be letting in 3-5 goals per game.

 

[thadd]

You've got the wrong year. Gagner wasn't with the team last season and RNH started the season with the Oilers. You're talking about 2013-14 season as that's when RNH missed the first 2 games and Gagner missed 13 games from an injury in pre-season from Kassian.

Sorry. You're right again. My memories are all muddled.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

Is it?

I think that's asking a little much if you ask me because Talbot isn't playing for the Rangers anymore. Let's say you, me and our buddies are playing on the back end, is it fair to expect Talbot to do much? Compared to the support that the goalies on the top 10 teams get, it's pretty sad.

It's not an individual sport. It's a team sport. Yes, Talbot is there to make saves, but at what point is he expected to continue to play at his best when our d-men are making so many mistakes? The whole idea of a team buying into a system relies on the team believing in the system. When the players are doing what they're expected to be doing so much easier for all the players on the team to do their job. They don't get caught off guard or pulled out of their established comfort zone.

If our players aren't coughing up the puck at the worst possible moments I'm pretty sure our goalie doesn't feel like he's in a trench on a battlefield. I don't think that Talbot was accustomed to this constant state of chaos in New York.

Look at what Chris Osgood did in Detroit. He was by no means a great goalie. Famous for letting in tons of goals on the 5 hole position, let he won a stanley cup and he won TONS of games because his team was able to play a calm consistent game. If Osgood were in his prime now playing for Edmonton, he'd probably be letting in 3-5 goals per game.

I agree that a strong system is much more beneficial to the goaltender but look at it from this perspective.

Oilers are down by 2 against a division rivial. Grinded their way back to tie the game. They are in position to get at least a point when with 8 seconds left Frolik banks one off your goaltender from the corner and you go home with a loss.

A game against the Kings where the Oilers were leading 1-0 with tons of momentum and Jeff Carter scores from behind the goal line.

Another game against the kings where the Oilers had the game tied when Talbot played the puck for no reason then turned it over and gave a terrible rebound that led to the GWG.

Its not massive defensive breakdowns that are leading to losses. It's small mental lapses both from the defense and goalies that are killing this team. As a goalie, fair or not you aren't allowed to have many mental lapses that lead directly to goals. That's just part of the gig.

If Talbot does his job then the Oilers would probably have minimum 3-6 pts in the standings and this thread probably doesn't even get made.

There's a reason the New England Patriots slogan is "Do your job'' Because they expect everyone no matter what role they play on the team to execute when called upon.

As for your Chris Osgood comparison. Remember Manny Legace. Same defense group but he didn't last that long in Detroit since he couldn't stop the puck in the first round of the playoffs.

As a Oilers fan, I'm a big fan of Legace.

 

[Gambl0r83*]

What really sunk them last year was the two 10-game losing streaks prior to Eakins departure.

We saw absolutely no progress last year, as they were dominated by all the Western Conference teams.

This year, we are one game from tying how many games we won all of last year vs the West, which was 4 I believe

This year, nearly half the games we are out-shooting and out-chancing our opponents. The progress is clear as day.

IMO, the big hole right now is goaltending. A veteran goalie would've gotten the win in at least 3 of the games this year where we were clearly the better team, and sitting at 9-9-0 instead of 6-12-0

Might be stupid move, but I think we need to bring up Laurent, it's time

 

[NewBoysClub97*]

We are playing much better and in pretty much every game. Look at Vancouver. Without OT losses, they are 7-11. We are 6-12. We have not got any loser points.

 

[McDeepika]

Team is much better this year so far. Last year, we would get our *** kicked from the top of the roster all the way down. This year, our top guys are actually holding their own or even coming out ahead against the other teams best players. Our depth has completely let us down this year.

Also some pretty brutal luck. Talbot just gave away games in the last minute to the Kings and Flames and we all know we tied the first game against the Kings as well. Should probably have an extra 3-4 points right now no doubt.

Then you wonder what our record could have been if we didn't send Draisaitl down to the AHL for no good reason at the start of the year.

 

[voxel]

Last year we had Petry (and a slightly more vet D core). Overall, the top-6 is playing much better and the bottom 6 significantly worse (anybody have the scoring stats for the bottom 6 for last season?).

Goaltending is a wash - maybe slightly better with Nilsson.

Schedule is more difficult this year.