Compare Player A, Player B, Player C, Player D

[TheKrebsCycle]

But in the end that’s the point. Raw stats aren’t going to be the end all. What team were they on? How old are they? What were their actual stats?


Pretending they’re the same age and played the same games, do you take:

27g 45a 72pt
16g 49a 65pt


Minus context, one is JT Miller and one is Roman Josi. What’s the point of comparing players under the false assumption that they all played the same number of games, all are the same age and all play the same position only to find out they’re different ages, played different numbers of games, had their stats altered and prorated (since no one played 82 games last year) and aren’t even all the same position?

I think the point is to remove possible bias/favoritism. Im assuming these are all forwards

 

[The Moose is Loose]

But in the end that’s the point. Raw stats aren’t going to be the end all. What team were they on? How old are they? What were their actual stats?


Pretending they’re the same age and played the same games, do you take:

27g 45a 72pt
16g 49a 65pt


Minus context, one is JT Miller and one is Roman Josi. What’s the point of comparing players under the false assumption that they all played the same number of games, all are the same age and all play the same position only to find out they’re different ages, played different numbers of games, had their stats altered and prorated (since no one played 82 games last year) and aren’t even all the same position?

Both those predictions are wrong.

but can’t you just go along with it for the fun?

Yes messing with the stats yields imperfect results and obviously context is needed for the players seasons, and there’s more to a player than just goals/points but I can’t create a perfect poll here!

 

[The Moose is Loose]

I think the point is to remove possible bias/favoritism. Im assuming these are all forwards

100%

 

[LokiDog]

I think the point is to remove possible bias/favoritism.

But how are the stars altered? Did everyone get the same + or - in goals and assists? If not there’s bias in the question itself. This player scored 34 in real life, but let’s assume he scored 41. What’s the point? And again, age, team, position, etc. do matter.

 

[LokiDog]

Both those predictions are wrong.

but can’t you just go along with it for the fun?

Yes messing with the stats yields imperfect results and obviously context is needed for the players seasons, and there’s more to a player than just goals/points but I can’t create a perfect poll here!

Neither of those are predictions. Those are their actual stats. What’s the point of polling players production without context?

 

[TheDoldrums]

For lack of better options on that team? It is possible that a player isn’t great defensively at the moment but is being asked to contribute to the team for his improvement and to balance out ice time.

Mitch Marner kills penalties and scores a ton of points. He’s average defensively at best.

To add to that, PK and 5v5 are different defensively. Marners active stick and shiftiness can be scary on the PK where he can disrupt things and create a shorthanded chance. He's better defensively there than he is defending the cycle in his own zone 5v5, for example.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

Neither of those are predictions. Those are their actual stats. What’s the point of polling players production without context?

Just to create something fun to do in the offseason. It’s the not that deep

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

To add to that, PK and 5v5 are different defensively. Marners active stick and shiftiness can be scary on the PK where he can disrupt things and create a shorthanded chance. He's better defensively there than he is defending the cycle in his own zone 5v5, for example.

Reminds me of when the Devils had Kovalchuk on the PK, or when the Caps had Semin there.

Keeps the other team honest, one turnover and they were gone the other way to snipe a shorty.

 

[Iapyi]

Reminds me of when the Devils had Kovalchuk on the PK, or when the Caps had Semin there.

Keeps the other team honest, one turnover and they were gone the other way to snipe a shorty.

Yeah did those guys ever snipe the "shortys".

Kovalchuk = 10 SHG in 13 NHL seasons. Semin = 4 SHG in 11 seasons.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Yeah did those guys ever snipe the "shortys".

Kovalchuk = 10 SHG in 13 NHL seasons. Semin = 4 SHG in 11 seasons.

Lol it was done as a brief experiment in their careers but Kovalchuk definitely did for two seasons in NJ.

3 goals in 2011-12 and 3 goals in 2012-13. Were they snipes? You tell me.

 

[bobholly39]

I'll give statistics from the past 2 years, we will assume they are all the same age and play the same position, all stats are for an 82 games seasons:

Player A-
18-19: 26 goals, 46 assists, 72 points, -2, 23 PP points
19-20: 19 goals, 39 assists, 58 points, +2, 15 PP points
*very good defensively, Plays on the PK, averages 17:02 minutes of ice time

Player B-
18-19: 38 goals, 41 assists, 79 points, +2, 22 PP points
19-20: 38 goals, 57 assists, 95 points, -5, 33 PP points
*below average defensively, Plays on the PK, averages 19:12 minutes of ice time

Player C-
18-19: 31 goals, 43 assists, 74 points, +15, 28 PP points
19-20: 31 goals, 52 assists, 83 points, +10, 28 PP points
*average defensively, Does not play PK, averages 18:07 minutes of ice time

Player D-
18-19: 33 goals, 33 assists, 66 points, -7, 15 PP points
19-20: 41 goals, 29 assists, 70 points, +15, 19 PP points
*above average defensively, Does not play PK, averages 17:50 minutes of ice time

Rank these forwards, just off the statistics!

Best Guess:

Player A is Barkov
Player B is Draisaitl
Player C is MacKinnon
Player D is Matthews

Ice times are a bit off though.

I'd have Mack ~ Drai as the2 best players. Matthews is somewhat close behind at #3, and Barkov is last.

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

I take whichever one is Matthews.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

B-D-C-A just looking at stats and without knowing linemates and team etc.

 

[Kranix]

I can't unless you show their xXGF%Xx

 

[The Moose is Loose]

Best Guess:

Player A is Barkov
Player B is Draisaitl
Player C is MacKinnon
Player D is Matthews

Ice times are a bit off though.

I'd have Mack ~ Drai as the2 best players. Matthews is somewhat close behind at #3, and Barkov is last.

Very nice! You got it. It takes some math skills to be able to see that, very impressive given 0 context.

I multiplied each players paced out statline from the past 2 years by .75 scalar to distort their stats in a relatively fair and even manner. Ice time was multiplied by .85 for all of them since a 25% reduction in ice time was too drastic.
I was curious if Draisaitl/Matthews got less attention and Barkov got more since Toronto/Edmonton are probably the 2 biggest fanbases on this site and Florida is easily the smallest.

But most people ended up choosing around B=C>D>A which is a general consensus on this board. If anything it helped Draisaitl and Matthews a little bit since sometimes they were ranked over Mackinnon, but Barkov seems to be the consensus 4th.

I thought it was fun to do, and it made sense to alter their stats since these 4 superstars are some of the most talked about guys on this forum, and thus their unaltered stat lines would be recognized immediately.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Best Guess:

Player A is Barkov
Player B is Draisaitl
Player C is MacKinnon
Player D is Matthews

Ice times are a bit off though.

I'd have Mack ~ Drai as the2 best players. Matthews is somewhat close behind at #3, and Barkov is last.

If that's the case, then my vote resulted in Draisaitl/Mackinnon/Matthews/Barkov, which is roughly how I'd rank them (though I might switch up Mackinnon and Draisaitl).

So essentially, I'm consistent and don't vote based on name bias.

 

[RattsSSV]

Very nice! You got it. It takes some math skills to be able to see that, very impressive given 0 context.

I multiplied each players paced out statline from the past 2 years by .75 scalar to distort their stats in a relatively fair and even manner. Ice time was multiplied by .85 for all of them since a 25% reduction in ice time was too drastic.
I was curious if Draisaitl/Matthews got less attention and Barkov got more since Toronto/Edmonton are probably the 2 biggest fanbases on this site and Florida is easily the smallest.

But most people ended up choosing around B=C>D>A which is a general consensus on this board. If anything it helped Draisaitl and Matthews a little bit since sometimes they were ranked over Mackinnon, but Barkov seems to be the consensus 4th.

I thought it was fun to do, and it made sense to alter their stats since these 4 superstars are some of the most talked about guys on this forum, and thus their unaltered stat lines would be recognized immediately.

Well done.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

If that's the case, then my vote resulted in Draisaitl/Mackinnon/Matthews/Barkov, which is roughly how I'd rank them (though I might switch up Mackinnon and Draisaitl).

So essentially, I'm consistent and don't vote based on name bias.

You're a good poster and that was reflected here. I don't think its a coincidence

 

[bobholly39]

Very nice! You got it. It takes some math skills to be able to see that, very impressive given 0 context.

I multiplied each players paced out statline from the past 2 years by .75 scalar to distort their stats in a relatively fair and even manner. Ice time was multiplied by .85 for all of them since a 25% reduction in ice time was too drastic.
I was curious if Draisaitl/Matthews got less attention and Barkov got more since Toronto/Edmonton are probably the 2 biggest fanbases on this site and Florida is easily the smallest.

But most people ended up choosing around B=C>D>A which is a general consensus on this board. If anything it helped Draisaitl and Matthews a little bit since sometimes they were ranked over Mackinnon, but Barkov seems to be the consensus 4th.

I thought it was fun to do, and it made sense to alter their stats since these 4 superstars are some of the most talked about guys on this forum, and thus their unaltered stat lines would be recognized immediately.

What clued me in right away was Draisaitl, and specifically the 95 points. I know only very few players had so many points or close this year - and none of them had the rest of the statline, so I assumed it was adjusted down. The fact that he played on the PK but wasn't very good defensively also helped identify him quickly.

Barkov was pretty easy to select based on his +/-. The point production alone could have been any of Point, Gaudreau...few players had 90+ last year and much less this year. It's really the ice-time that didn't fit. I'm assuming you only looked at 2019-2020 ice-time, vs 2 years average, because if not it's pretty far off.

For what it's worth - before 'cheating' and figuring out whose who and voting accordingly, I certainly would have picked B (Drai) first. C (Mack) is next, D (Matthews) is 3rd and Barkov is 4th, with clear demarcations between each player.

In reality - I think it's MacKinnon who benefits the most from name recognition here, as most people have him as equal or above to Drai, vs behind him. I don't even disagree with that myself.

Very fun thread

 

[BiolaRunner]

Now that we know whose who, I still say E. All of the ABove

 

[The Moose is Loose]

What clued me in right away was Draisaitl, and specifically the 95 points. I know only very few players had so many points or close this year - and none of them had the rest of the statline, so I assumed it was adjusted down. The fact that he played on the PK but wasn't very good defensively also helped identify him quickly.

Barkov was pretty easy to select based on his +/-. The point production alone could have been any of Point, Gaudreau...few players had 90+ last year and much less this year. It's really the ice-time that didn't fit. I'm assuming you only looked at 2019-2020 ice-time, vs 2 years average, because if not it's pretty far off.

For what it's worth - before 'cheating' and figuring out whose who and voting accordingly, I certainly would have picked B (Drai) first. C (Mack) is next, D (Matthews) is 3rd and Barkov is 4th, with clear demarcations between each player.

In reality - I think it's MacKinnon who benefits the most from name recognition here, as most people have him as equal or above to Drai, vs behind him. I don't even disagree with that myself.

Very fun thread

That’s awesome. It was really very introspective work to realize who was who, I’m impressed.

I knew when writing it out that Draisaitl would be the easiest to identify since he had identical goal paces in back to back years, and he’s one of a few offensive players who is mediocre defensively but eats PK minutes (which he is good at).

You’re right, I didn’t average the ice time. I just used this past season, I figured it wasn’t really going to be overly analyzed, especially since it had a different multiplier than the other numbers.

I agree, I think I’d take Mackinnon over Draisaitl as well (by a hair) but my logic isn’t founded in their production, which is what these results predicted.
I concur on the point that I think the biggest take away from this thread is that Mackinnon carries the most name recognition.

Edit:

I also think it’s incredible that Matthews goal scoring can be reduced by 25% and he is still on pace for over 40 goals or that Draisaitl total production can be reduced by 25% and he would still be close to a 100 point season.

 

[Oilers 322]

For lack of better options on that team? It is possible that a player isn’t great defensively at the moment but is being asked to contribute to the team for his improvement and to balance out ice time.

Mitch Marner kills penalties and scores a ton of points. He’s average defensively at best.

To add to this, Drai kill penalties because he’s good at face offs. PKing is also more structured than defending even strength, so smart players like Drai and Marner can be effective by reading the play. Drai has bad EV numbers because he cheats for offence and overextend his shift. When he’s asked to solely play defence (PK), he is decent.