Collapse of the PAC-12: Oregon State & Washington State left in the dust

[Hasbro]

Air Force can't pull off independence and because Colorado Springs is so ridiculously far from other schools. There's like 45 schools in the western HALF of the US in all of D-I.

They are the Air Force though. They have planes.

 

[DaveG]

Unscheduled U of Arizona BoR meeting now scheduled for 3:30 this afternoon (presumably local time). Rumors picking up that their announcement of a move to their Big 12 could be coming in the next few days.

 

[StreetHawk]

Unscheduled U of Arizona BoR meeting now scheduled for 3:30 this afternoon (presumably local time). Rumors picking up that their announcement of a move to their Big 12 could be coming in the next few days.

Arizona never a football power. Fine program, but never really in the mix for even the Pac12 title for a very long time. But, they were a name brand basketball program pre millennium. Haven't had that same high level consistency in terms of on court success and final 4 since.

 

[BKarchitect]

If it’s just Arizona, despite the feeling it is doomed - the PAC will still soldier on in some form until the B1G expands and Oregon and Washington likely get the call to reinforce their national Pacific wing. SDST plus SMU to bring in two big markets to get back to 10. Oregon, Washington and Utah remain the football powers and may be willing to deal with a lowered media deal in order to have easy access to the football playoffs and also knowing they will probably not be left out during whatever the next round is.

It’s also been reported that Utah doesn’t really want to move right now…that could change if we are talking a big difference in the PAC and Big 12 deals but they don’t want to be really seen as “following” BYU into another conference and they have cultivated football prestige in the PAC.

Plus Yormark looks very willing to settle on 14 for now. We are unsure of the pro rata terms with ESPN and Fox regarding teams past 14 that aren’t Oregon or Washington. Unless the Arizona board (the unified board that oversees UA, ASU and NAU) throws a wrench into things, it is very possible Arizona is the last P5 to P5 move this round of expansion. I am curious if Arizona splits from ASU if there is some sort of clause or financial “penalty” that they would have to cover that may make moving to the Big 12 more complicated than it was for Colorado. UConn remains a back up plan but they are a poor cultural fit and not P5 so won’t bring the pro rata media increases. And Yormark would have a lot of work to do to convince Big 12 presidents of that fit and of the power of basketball in this entire picture…which Yormark clearly sees as undervalued and as a “moneyball” opportunity in the current landscape. A sentiment not shared by many. But he’s been pretty sharp and forward thinking and if his NCAA tournament “inventory” of schools is just amazing, it creates something of a safety net from any mass conference breakaway from the NCAA.

Of course - if the ACC powers are willing to break their suffocating GoR to escape to the B1G or SEC, all bets are off. Oregon and Washington are nice but the real prizes and the real B1G-SEC battle will be over the UNC’s of the college world.

 

[DaveG]

Arizona never a football power. Fine program, but never really in the mix for even the Pac12 title for a very long time. But, they were a name brand basketball program pre millennium. Haven't had that same high level consistency in terms of on court success and final 4 since.

yeah, in the 90s they had a good stretch where they had a few top 10 seasons, and had a brief uptick when they had Rich Rod there as coach, but basketball has been their big brand for a while.

If it’s just Arizona, despite the feeling it is doomed - the PAC will still soldier on in some form until the B1G expands and Oregon and Washington likely get the call to reinforce their national Pacific wing. SDST plus SMU to bring in two big markets to get back to 10. Oregon, Washington and Utah remain the football powers and may be willing to deal with a lowered media deal in order to have easy access to the football playoffs and also knowing they will probably not be left out during whatever the next round is.

It’s also been reported that Utah doesn’t really want to move right now…that could change if we are talking a big difference in the PAC and Big 12 deals but they don’t want to be really seen as “following” BYU into another conference and they have cultivated football prestige in the PAC.

Plus Yormark looks very willing to settle on 14 for now. We are unsure of the pro rata terms with ESPN and Fox regarding teams past 14 that aren’t Oregon or Washington. Unless the Arizona board (the unified board that oversees UA, ASU and NAU) throws a wrench into things, it is very possible Arizona is the last P5 to P5 move this round of expansion. I am curious if Arizona splits from ASU if there is some sort of clause or financial “penalty” that they would have to cover that may make moving to the Big 12 more complicated than it was for Colorado. UConn remains a back up plan but they are a poor cultural fit and not P5 so won’t bring the pro rata media increases. And Yormark would have a lot of work to do to convince Big 12 presidents of that fit and of the power of basketball in this entire picture…which Yormark clearly sees as undervalued and as a “moneyball” opportunity in the current landscape. A sentiment not shared by many. But he’s been pretty sharp and forward thinking and if his NCAA tournament “inventory” of schools is just amazing, it creates something of a safety net from any mass conference breakaway from the NCAA.

Of course - if the ACC powers are willing to break their suffocating GoR to escape to the B1G or SEC, all bets are off. Oregon and Washington are nice but the real prizes and the real B1G-SEC battle will be over the UNC’s of the college world.

on the bolded, ESPN is willing to go to 16 pro rata as long as the adds are P5 adds. Fox is willing to do 14 but it's widely believed they would go to 16 for the right additions. The real question is if they would consider ASU and Utah to be that, or Oregon and Washington for that matter.

If the Pac manages to hold at 8 for now, they'll backfill with SMU, SDSU, Colorado State, and whichever of Boise State and UNLV is more attractive for them going forward IMO. I've even seen some speculation that they'd consider Tulane, though I'm not buying that one.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

The important thing to remember is not about the quality of the product on the field, but on the revenue generation. The Big Ten being more or less title-less as of late beyond Ohio State in football and habitually underperforming in the NCAA basketball tournament doesn't really matter when each school gets an enormous profit from BTN that basically any other school would kill for.

 

[S E P H]

That hasn't been the case for a while now. The Pac was #5 in terms of conference payout per school by a good margin, and they had a series of disastrous decisions that badly hampered any chance they would have had to create any separation between themselves and the ACC/Big 12.

Instead of teaming up with one of the major CFB broadcasters they decided to make a go of it on their own for the Pac 12 network trying to emulate the success of the BTN and SEC Network. Major flop. In contrast the ACC network has been more successful (though nowhere near BTN and SECN) and the Big 12 allowed its schools to monetize their own Tier 3 distribution, which was in effect until recently where they moved to ESPN+ for streaming.

Their prior commissioner, Larry Scott, made a vanity play to have the conference HQ set up in a building in San Francisco that ended up costing the conference over $90 million over the course of about a decade.

Basically a sequence of bad timing (slide of USC and Oregon as contenders) and bad decisions (Pac-12 Network and HQ debacles) along with not raiding/joining forces with the Big 12 after the OU/Texas departures ended up doing in the conference. There were a number of moves they could have made that would have added value (BYU, TCU, Oklahoma State, Kansas, OU, Texas, Texas Tech) that had legit legs to the rumors that they just declined to make over the course of the last 13-14 years, and it ended up biting them in the end.

So I guess my question to this is why did Big 10 Network do so well, while PAC-12 Network flopped?

 

[DaveG]

So I guess my question to this is why did Big 10 Network do so well, while PAC-12 Network flopped?

1 - they were first to the conference network game by a good margin
2 - they teamed up with Fox to create the network
and (semi-sarcastic, semi-serious answer)
3 - what was the first game in BTN history?

Spoiler

 

[Spydey629]

yeah, in the 90s they had a good stretch where they had a few top 10 seasons, and had a brief uptick when they had Rich Rod there as coach, but basketball has been their big brand for a while.


on the bolded, ESPN is willing to go to 16 pro rata as long as the adds are P5 adds. Fox is willing to do 14 but it's widely believed they would go to 16 for the right additions. The real question is if they would consider ASU and Utah to be that, or Oregon and Washington for that matter.

If the Pac manages to hold at 8 for now, they'll backfill with SMU, SDSU, Colorado State, and whichever of Boise State and UNLV is more attractive for them going forward IMO. I've even seen some speculation that they'd consider Tulane, though I'm not buying that one.

Tulane is academically a better fit for the Pac-## than Boise or UNLV. Tulane is a pretty well regarded school. Heck, they used to be a Power-5 school, since they were a founding member of the SEC.

Geographically, yes. Boise and UNLV are a better fit. But with two LA schools joining a league that stretches from Nebraska to New Jersey, why can't a league out west add a school based in (the state of) LA??

 

[BKarchitect]

PAC deals is an all-streaming package on Apple TV+ with no linear element. Initial payout less than the Big 12 deal but with escalators for number of subscriptions.

Hard to gauge on face value without details. Pro PAC sources are touting the potential to go beyond the Big 12 number while Pro Big-12 sources claim the amount of subscriptions it would take to even match the Big 12 number is unrealistic.

I doubt any of these sources truly know yet. I suspect the “emergency” University of Arizona regents meeting this afternoon to not give any indication of a “long-term” decision - these deals are like comparing apples to oranges - and to simply put the Wildcats in a holding pattern. And if they are holding and waiting to digest the information, so is everybody else. I’d be shocked if there is any movement or declarative statement from anybody today.

 

[GKJ]

The service academies and conferences are an interesting animal.

Army is independent because they can take their team around the country and play near all the Army bases. When they were in C-USA for a while, it was because like seven of the C-USA teams were near 7 of the largest 10 Army bases in the US. It was perfect. Then the conference changed and they went independent again.

They don't need a conference because, for example, they can get a home and home against someone like Kansas State. Because there's a base nearby, KSU can sell tickets to all those soldiers. You look at who Army plays in football, and it's not really hard to find the bases nearby.

Navy doesn't have that luxury because they don't have a lot of Naval bases inland. Their bases are coastal... So they need a conference and half the American teams was relatively close to naval stations (Houston, Tulane, USF, ECU, Temple, UConn).

Air Force can't pull off independence and because Colorado Springs is so ridiculously far from other schools. There's like 45 schools in the western HALF of the US in all of D-I.

The West frequently acts like one big conference. In college baseball, teams like LSU and Oklahoma will play like 26 of 30 non-conference games at home. The west can't do that. They try to pull the "P5 we don't play road games" on the "mid-majors" in baseball, and coaches just say "Call us back in three weeks when you don't have a schedule." Washington and Oregon State baseball have so few teams relatively close to them that they will play will play road games at Saint Mary's, San Francisco, Santa Clara, Pacific, UC Davis and San Jose State all the time, depending on "Who's free Tuesday after we play at Stanford or at Cal" And they do the same in LA. (The effect of UCLA and USC in the Big Ten on college baseball is going to be interesting AF).

Air Force basically HAS to be in a western conference, because not being in one makes no sense.

Colorado Springs is a lovely place though. I love it at least.

Tulane is academically a better fit for the Pac-## than Boise or UNLV. Tulane is a pretty well regarded school. Heck, they used to be a Power-5 school, since they were a founding member of the SEC.

Geographically, yes. Boise and UNLV are a better fit. But with two LA schools joining a league that stretches from Nebraska to New Jersey, why can't a league out west add a school based in (the state of) LA??

They can, just, if you're Tulane, why would you do it? Is it worth being in the Pac 12 when you could possibly wait your turn to get picked up by the Big 12 or ACC?

If it’s just Arizona, despite the feeling it is doomed - the PAC will still soldier on in some form until the B1G expands and Oregon and Washington likely get the call to reinforce their national Pacific wing. SDST plus SMU to bring in two big markets to get back to 10. Oregon, Washington and Utah remain the football powers and may be willing to deal with a lowered media deal in order to have easy access to the football playoffs and also knowing they will probably not be left out during whatever the next round is.

It’s also been reported that Utah doesn’t really want to move right now…that could change if we are talking a big difference in the PAC and Big 12 deals but they don’t want to be really seen as “following” BYU into another conference and they have cultivated football prestige in the PAC.

Plus Yormark looks very willing to settle on 14 for now. We are unsure of the pro rata terms with ESPN and Fox regarding teams past 14 that aren’t Oregon or Washington. Unless the Arizona board (the unified board that oversees UA, ASU and NAU) throws a wrench into things, it is very possible Arizona is the last P5 to P5 move this round of expansion. I am curious if Arizona splits from ASU if there is some sort of clause or financial “penalty” that they would have to cover that may make moving to the Big 12 more complicated than it was for Colorado. UConn remains a back up plan but they are a poor cultural fit and not P5 so won’t bring the pro rata media increases. And Yormark would have a lot of work to do to convince Big 12 presidents of that fit and of the power of basketball in this entire picture…which Yormark clearly sees as undervalued and as a “moneyball” opportunity in the current landscape. A sentiment not shared by many. But he’s been pretty sharp and forward thinking and if his NCAA tournament “inventory” of schools is just amazing, it creates something of a safety net from any mass conference breakaway from the NCAA.

Of course - if the ACC powers are willing to break their suffocating GoR to escape to the B1G or SEC, all bets are off. Oregon and Washington are nice but the real prizes and the real B1G-SEC battle will be over the UNC’s of the college world.

Big 12 also doesn't need Utah because they already have BYU in that market.

 

[DaveG]

PAC deals is an all-streaming package on Apple TV+ with no linear element. Initial payout less than the Big 12 deal but with escalators for number of subscriptions.

Hard to gauge on face value without details. Pro PAC sources are touting the potential to go beyond the Big 12 number while Pro Big-12 sources claim the amount of subscriptions it would take to even match the Big 12 number is unrealistic.

I doubt any of these sources truly know yet. I suspect the “emergency” University of Arizona regents meeting this afternoon to not give any indication of a “long-term” decision - these deals are like comparing apples to oranges - and to simply put the Wildcats in a holding pattern. And if they are holding and waiting to digest the information, so is everybody else. I’d be shocked if there is any movement or declarative statement from anybody today.

If it's subscriptions based that's bad news for the 9 current PAC teams. The MLS subscriber package on Apple+ is right around a million total, and that's being juiced by having MLS STH's given free subscriptions for the first year. I'd be curious to see what the number is for the amount of subscribers to even get parity with the Big 12 in terms of payout. Apple+ just doesn't have the viewership amount (currently) to make that a good idea to take.

 

[BKarchitect]

If it's subscriptions based that's bad news for the 9 current PAC teams. The MLS subscriber package on Apple+ is right around a million total, and that's being juiced by having MLS STH's given free subscriptions for the first year. I'd be curious to see what the number is for the amount of subscribers to even get parity with the Big 12 in terms of payout. Apple+ just doesn't have the viewership amount (currently) to make that a good idea to take.

It seems risky for sure. It was always rumored this was going to be the best of mostly bad options.

The simple fact is the PAC was never going to get a guaranteed deal to match what Yormark got the Big 12. If they came in at a flat $22 million versus a flat $32 million - the conference would be immediately finished as a P5/P4. I don’t believe anything Kliavkoff and the PAC home office are going to try to sell here - not after the tire fire that was the PAC Network. But they at least have something to try and spin and sell. I guess we should start at least hearing rumblings if his PowerPoints and graphs were convincing or not.

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

What could help UNLV in an aggressive push towards Pac-12 membership is a complete rebranding of the institution.

In an effort to distinguish them from the University of Nevada in Reno, the institution would adopt the new name of Nevada Tech University. The Rebels nickname would also be retired due to its unfortunate connotations. The new nickname could be Blackjacks.

 

[mouser]

Lol

 

[Outl4w]

The important thing to remember is not about the quality of the product on the field, but on the revenue generation. The Big Ten being more or less title-less as of late beyond Ohio State in football and habitually underperforming in the NCAA basketball tournament doesn't really matter when each school gets an enormous profit from BTN that basically any other school would kill for.

One title in 22 years for the B1g. SEC is king for football. If Ohio State played in the SEC they would be lucky to make it to a championship game anytime soon.

 

[Spydey629]

Colorado Springs is a lovely place though. I love it at least.


They can, just, if you're Tulane, why would you do it? Is it worth being in the Pac 12 when you could possibly wait your turn to get picked up by the Big 12 or ACC?


Big 12 also doesn't need Utah because they already have BYU in that market.

Not at saying Tulane would do it. Just the observation on why their name is coming up in any rumors.

 

[MMC]

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

So sick of this shit

The Big Ten stretching into Maryland/New Jersey was enough

The idea of going fully West Coast is absurd

 

[mouser]

Oregon and Washington I can easily see.

I'm much more skeptical on the B1G coveting Stanford and Cal when they already have USC and UCLA. Yes, I know LA and SF are a few hundred miles apart. But USC and UCLA give the B1G a strong footprint across the entire state of CA, which Stanford/Cal would only moderately increase.

 

[BKarchitect]

Very early and this doesn’t mean the B1G home office or all schools are officially on board but…

Sources: Big Ten has begun preliminary talks to potentially add Oregon, Washington, Cal and Stanford

The general rumblings would suggest the details of the new PAC package have been met with skepticism by the other conferences that it will be enough to hold that league together in any significant way.

Bummed for the Cougars and Beavers. They are gonna get hosed. They aren’t any worse than the brands at the bottom of any of the other P5 leagues - they are just in the wrong place at the wrong time.

 

[BKarchitect]

The B1G has already released an official statement:

The Big Ten Conference is still focused on integration of USC and UCLA but it’s also commissioner’s job to keep conference chancellors and presidents informed about new developments as they occur.

I think this means everything is farther along than we think. It appears to me the Kliavkoff has failed and the details of the streaming PAC media deal have done nothing to stave off collapse. The B1G has been saying no expansion publicly and probably been tidying up the details of adding UW and UO behind the scenes - it’s already reported that any more PAC additions won’t come in at full share like USC/UCLA but even at partial share until fully-vested like Maryland and Rutgers were, this is still going to be mountains more money than the Apple TV PAC deal.

I think the B1G may have just been waiting for the Big 12 to pull a few of the lesser bricks away to start the cascade. Sure seems like Oregon and Washington to the B1G and the remaining three 4-corners MST schools to the Big 12 is inevitable.

As I posted in the Colorado thread - feel really bad for Oregon State and Washington State fans. Fine schools and athletic departments that are as power conference worthy as their peers in other P5 conferences and yet just may end up in the wrong place at the wrong time.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

Ah, these rumors again.

Well, they would add to the conference’s footprint, but I don’t see enough of a change on the ground for the Big Ten to be interested now after supposedly not being interested when they poached the LA schools. Fully prepared to be wrong, though.

 

[joelef]

Ah, these rumors again.

Well, they would add to the conference’s footprint, but I don’t see enough of a change on the ground for the Big Ten to be interested now after supposedly not being interested when they poached the LA schools. Fully prepared to be wrong, though.

These leagues are trying to cash in before cable collapses

 

[mouser]

Ah, these rumors again.

Well, they would add to the conference’s footprint, but I don’t see enough of a change on the ground for the Big Ten to be interested now after supposedly not being interested when they poached the LA schools. Fully prepared to be wrong, though.

I think the B1G was, and remains, very interested in UW and UO. They had the option to be patient and wait things out last year.

The biggest thing that’s changed between then and now for the B1G is the potential urgency to make a decision on UW/UO if the PAC implodes.