Value of: Colin White (RFA July 1st 2019)

[danielpalfredsson]

COLIN WHITE
Center/Right Wing - 22 years old (Jan 30 1997)
Drafted 21st in 2015 - RFA (Not Arbitration Elgible)
58gp, 13 goals/33 points (47 point pace)

HYPOTHETICAL SITUATION
Come June, there are rumblings that a team will attempt to sign Colin White to a front loaded offer sheet in the 5 year low 4M AAV range. Offer sheet compensation has yet to be released for the 2019 season, but something in the 4.1-4.3 million range should equate to a compensation of only a 2nd round pick.

This offer sheet is expected to be front loaded with signing bonuses. Catching wind of this, knowing that Melnyk will not sign off on matching a contract that has 10 million via signing bonuses going to White in a 12 month period (two 5M+ bonuses), Pierre Dorion along with assistant general managers Peter Mactavish and Bruce Garrioch are tasked with trying to get the best offer for Colin White at the 2019 NHL entry draft.

They don't know for sure that White will sign the offer sheet, but with a rival GM in their ear threatening to do it, and the prospect of losing White for only a 2nd round pick, they have no choice but to trade White prior to White becoming a free agent on July 1st.

In this scenario, what could the Senators expect to receive for White at the draft? Keep in mind that whoever acquires him would have to be willing and able to match an offer sheet in excess of 4 million per season with front loaded bonus money. (For most teams, this will not be an issue, but a few teams would be out either due to cap or spending restrictions)​

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[780il]

He'd be a great add to Edmonton. We need wingers badly.

Our 2nd (37th ish) + Bear + Puljujarvi + Manning
For
White + Smith

 

[danielpalfredsson]

He'd be a great add to Edmonton. We need wingers badly.

Our 2nd (37th ish) + Bear + Puljujarvi + Manning
For
White + Smith

This isn't meant to be a "let's pretend we're GMs then fight when we don't agree on trades thread", rather more of a discussion thread, so don't take my reply as if I am negotiating....

I don't think the Senators would move Smith despite his name being in trade rumours forever. I think they feel they need veterans in the room.

A relatively high pick and Puljujarvi makes sense.

I could see the Senators wanting RNH from Edmonton for White. Which would be hilarious in the context of a rebuild, but if they are forced to trade White because of an impending offer sheet with signing bonuses (not so much AAV), I could see them wanting to use it as an opportunity to try and add a "star" veteran to try and fix some of the damage that losing Stone/Duchene/Dzingel all at once may have caused in the room. White plays top 6 minutes at this point, so I don't think they'd want to lose him without a replacement in the lineup coming back, so with RNH they'd get a major upgrade (who they'd probably have to flip for picks in 1.5 years....)

 

[Taluss]

Cant you not be offersheeted on your entry level contract?

 

[MMC]

Sprong + Welinski + Shore

for

White

 

[780il]

This isn't meant to be a "let's pretend we're GMs then fight when we don't agree on trades thread", rather more of a discussion thread, so don't take my reply as if I am negotiating....

I don't think the Senators would move Smith despite his name being in trade rumours forever. I think they feel they need veterans in the room.

A relatively high pick and Puljujarvi makes sense.

I could see the Senators wanting RNH from Edmonton for White. Which would be hilarious in the context of a rebuild, but if they are forced to trade White because of an impending offer sheet with signing bonuses (not so much AAV), I could see them wanting to use it as an opportunity to try and add a "star" veteran to try and fix some of the damage that losing Stone/Duchene/Dzingel all at once may have caused in the room. White plays top 6 minutes at this point, so I don't think they'd want to lose him without a replacement in the lineup coming back, so with RNH they'd get a major upgrade (who they'd probably have to flip for picks in 1.5 years....)

We could take Smith and Bear out of that package and I'd offer the 2nd and Jesse for White alone. They could try and make Jesse great again while getting a relatively high pick in the draft. I'd probably give you a choice of either Yamamoto or Pulju because I'm a big fan of White.

Also, no chance we trade Nuge. Unless it's for someone younger and better, which White is and isn't.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Cant you not be offersheeted on your entry level contract?

Any RFA can be signed to an offer sheet.

He is an RFA on July 1st.

Free agents can be talked to in the week leading up to July 1st. I assume this applies to RFAs as well as UFAs, but I am unsure.

It's a bit of a stretch to assume the Senators would hear of an offer sheet before it was going to happen, but it isn't completely implausible given GMs have tried to arrange trades for players in the past prior to offer sheeting them. The idea being it's always better to pay a bit more in assets but have full control over being able to offer a more favourable term/dollar to the player.

Only the Senators truly know if Melnyk can match offers with signing bonuses, but if they can't, Colin White is going to be a prime offer sheet target since he's at a certain level where a shorter term contract at 4.XX million (that is front loaded with signing bonuses) will be ABOVE what he should expect market value wise as an RFA, but it would only require a 2nd round pick in compensation which is well BELOW his value as an asset (even with an inflated contract by RFA standards).

 

[danielpalfredsson]

We could take Smith and Bear out of that package and I'd offer the 2nd and Jesse for White alone. They could try and make Jesse great again while getting a relatively high pick in the draft. I'd probably give you a choice of either Yamamoto or Pulju because I'm a big fan of White.

Also, no chance we trade Nuge. Unless it's for someone younger and better, which White is and isn't.

That's surprising. I would jump on RNH for White if I was the Oilers. White could probably be signed to something similar to the Tuch contract right now (4.5-5.0 million for 6-8 seasons). That would give the Oilers a great team building piece cap wise.

Look at RNH, he's going to command 8 x 8 on his next deal. Is that something the Oilers would be able to do? If I were them and I could get a young 40-50 point two way center and cost control him in the 4.5 million range for many years to come, that's something I'd jump at. He may not be a guy who is going to pan out as a legitimate dangerous 2C every season for the next 6-8 seasons, but as the cap rises having a player like White at 4.5 million would be a great piece.

 

[780il]

That's surprising. I would jump on RNH for White if I was the Oilers. White could probably be signed to something similar to the Tuch contract right now (4.5-5.0 million for 6-8 seasons). That would give the Oilers a great team building piece cap wise.

Look at RNH, he's going to command 8 x 8 on his next deal. Is that something the Oilers would be able to do? If I were them and I could get a young 40-50 point two way center and cost control him in the 4.5 million range for many years to come, that's something I'd jump at. He may not be a guy who is going to pan out as a legitimate dangerous 2C every season for the next 6-8 seasons, but as the cap rises having a player like White at 4.5 million would be a great piece.

We need more good forwards not to downgrade in skill from Nuge to White.

I would jump on White if you guys took a 2nd and Pulju because of what you said. We could lock him up at 4.75m for 7 years and end up with a steal of a contract for a good 2nd line RW. A player we desperately need to give us depth scoring.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Cant you not be offersheeted on your entry level contract?

Actually, upon further investigation, I am fairly certain Colin White is no eligible for an offer sheet.

It has nothing to do with his ELC directly though.

Similar to what happened with Johnny Gaudreau, Colin White burning year 1 of his ELC is not the same as White accruing a year of pro experience. White played less than 10 games so while he burned a year of his ELC (because he was no longer eligible for ELC slide), he did not accrue a year of pro experience.

Flames' Gaudreau can't receive offer sheet as restricted free agent

Extremely good news for the Senators. He would have been a prime candidate.

Main board thread jynx....carry on.

 

[StreetHawk]

There are rules regarding the variance in annual compensation to the cap hit. If you are looking at a cap hit of $4.1 then the max per year would be around $5.5 million per year and his low can’t be less than around $2.7 million.

Minimum alias salary has to be around $700k? So bonus would be a shade under $5 million.

Send still need to get to the cap floor. So they are likely to add low salary deals with high cap hits. I’m sure they match anything. So long as you keep your player for the term of the contract you’ll be even in the end.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

There are rules regarding the variance in annual compensation to the cap hit. If you are looking at a cap hit of $4.1 then the max per year would be around $5.5 million per year and his low can’t be less than around $2.7 million.

Minimum alias salary has to be around $700k? So bonus would be a shade under $5 million.

Send still need to get to the cap floor. So they are likely to add low salary deals with high cap hits. I’m sure they match anything. So long as you keep your player for the term of the contract you’ll be even in the end.

AAV is not an issue for the Sens.

Speculation is signing bonuses are an issue.

 

[StreetHawk]

AAV is not an issue for the Sens.

Speculation is signing bonuses are an issue.

At a cap hit of $4.1 million what they pay him per year isn’t outrageous even with SB. Not talking Tavares money with $10 million in SB per early on.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

At a cap hit of $4.1 million what they pay him per year isn’t outrageous even with SB. Not talking Tavares money with $10 million in SB per early on.

It's still 10 million (two 5ish million payments) in 12 months for a player who isn't a top star. On paper that's not a lot, but if it's a team that for whatever reason feels they are unable to deal with signing bonuses (that already owes Ryan 2M per season), that might not be doable.

(I obviously realized after this thread, that White isn't eligible for an offer sheet due to not accruing 3 pro seasons (despite completing a 3 year ELC), but I'm still open to discussing this hypothetical alternative universe where he is...)

 

[Patagonia]

Doubt Sens want RNH for $6M per, while letting White leave for upwards of $10M front loaded or $4,5M per. It’ll be a similar type of cost controlled player.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Actually, upon further investigation, I am fairly certain Colin White is no eligible for an offer sheet.

It has nothing to do with his ELC directly though.

Similar to what happened with Johnny Gaudreau, Colin White burning year 1 of his ELC is not the same as White accruing a year of pro experience. White played less than 10 games so while he burned a year of his ELC (because he was no longer eligible for ELC slide), he did not accrue a year of pro experience.

Flames' Gaudreau can't receive offer sheet as restricted free agent

Extremely good news for the Senators. He would have been a prime candidate.

Main board thread jynx....carry on.

Holy wow this is comforting. I was legit worried.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Actually, upon further investigation, I am fairly certain Colin White is no eligible for an offer sheet.

It has nothing to do with his ELC directly though.

Similar to what happened with Johnny Gaudreau, Colin White burning year 1 of his ELC is not the same as White accruing a year of pro experience. White played less than 10 games so while he burned a year of his ELC (because he was no longer eligible for ELC slide), he did not accrue a year of pro experience.

Flames' Gaudreau can't receive offer sheet as restricted free agent

Extremely good news for the Senators. He would have been a prime candidate.

Main board thread jynx....carry on.

Nice find man

Edit:
Some other notables like White:
Boeser
Kerfoot
Sanheim
McAvoy

 

[elitepete]

Goldobin+Madden

 

[Fourier]

That's surprising. I would jump on RNH for White if I was the Oilers. White could probably be signed to something similar to the Tuch contract right now (4.5-5.0 million for 6-8 seasons). That would give the Oilers a great team building piece cap wise.

Look at RNH, he's going to command 8 x 8 on his next deal. Is that something the Oilers would be able to do? If I were them and I could get a young 40-50 point two way center and cost control him in the 4.5 million range for many years to come, that's something I'd jump at. He may not be a guy who is going to pan out as a legitimate dangerous 2C every season for the next 6-8 seasons, but as the cap rises having a player like White at 4.5 million would be a great piece.

The Oilers have some cap issues next year but after that things really start to open up. As their young defensemen become ready to take over from Russell and Sekera they start cap space becomes a lot more of a plus rather than a negative. They could easily afford that deal for Nuge if he is still playing like he is right now. But I suspect they may get him for a bit less.

Right now Nuge for White is a significant down grade and there is no evidence that this would not be true for years to come. The Oilers are looking to win sooner, not later.

 

[justafan22]

Nice find man

Edit:
Some other notables like White:
Boeser
Kerfoot
Sanheim
McAvoy

Kapanen

 

[KevinRedkey]

Kapanen

I wasn't sure about him because he played more than 10 games combined. His Rookie season is considered to be 16-17. You may be right though.

 

[justafan22]

I wasn't sure about him because he played more than 10 games combined. His Rookie season is considered to be 16-17. You may be right though.

His ELC slid due to him only playing 9 in 2015-16, but yeah he's amongst the guys of meh first two years, 3rd year breakout.

 

[General Disarray]

I can't believe the Sens would only get a 2nd for him if he were offersheeted. He was a 1st round pick and his stats prove it.

 

[CapSpace]

I wish Bergevin has the balls to offersheet White the shit out of Ottawa.

Melnyk is a clown who needs to be kicked to the ground before he accepts to leave this franchise alone.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Mods, this thread should be closed. White is not eligible for an offer sheet as stated above