Post-Game Talk: Cole's Plus Minus: Pens vs. Jackets Round 1

[gopens66]

Was at the game last night and wanted to comment on some opinions throughout this PGT:

I went into the game with the intention of specifically tracking Johnson, Gudbranson, MaCann, and Bjugstad.

Johnson on his correct side and partnered with Shultz was extremely effective. (As stated by most here.)

I also believed Gudbranson was a garbage player at the trade, but he was great last night. In fact, I thought the Guds/Petterson pair was also mucho effective most of the night. Their sheer size enables them to cover a lot of ice and influence attackers' paths, steering them to the outside.
If Guds or Guds/Petterson can keep this up, they could be most effective in playoff hockey.

The FLA Boyz were both great all night. McCann got bounced around a bit, but was still noticeable. Bjugstad was asserting himself offensively and defensively all night. I'm glad he buried one. (Could've had a few more.)

I think a few of you were overly harsh in your criticism of Trotman. He definitely had a hiccup or two. But, he also made a number of smart/simple defensive clears that bought time to regroup and/or allow forwards to forecheck in the neutral zone. In fact, I kept thinking how many time Maatta had a similar situation this year and played the puck so weakly he couldn't clear the zone with roughly the same amount of time/pressure.

It may not have translated on TV, but Blueger was most noticable in the limited time on ice. I swear the kid hit someone on every shift he got. I know for certain he had two hits per shift for two different shifts. So, whoever gave him 4 total hits wasn't paying attention.

I think Simon insulted Tortorella's mother or something because there seemed to be a lot of dirty jabs from various BJ's directed at him through the 2nd and 3rd. Seemed odd that such a meh player would receive the ire. Maybe it's just the wannabe bully mentality to pick on the small kid?

Everyone wanted to see Sully turn Guds loose and cave in Foligno's face. I know, I know, tight game and all, but he and Dubinski have had it coming for far too long.....

 

[LittleSpoon]

Be brutally honest...did you ACTUALLY believe that, or did you WANT to believe that?



Can you describe the system the Pens have that you knew they'd fit?

haha I just had a good feeling. But I wouldn't have put money down if thats what ya wanna hear. Truthfully, I just believed him and Schultz could form a decent pairing, and didnt think that all of his shortcomings were solely on him, but mostly because of my high regards to schultz.

 

[MartinS82]

The way they suffocated the Jackets reminded me of 2017 a lot. Shot blocking and layers of defense. Shot blocking and layers of defense. More shot blocking.... more layers of defense.

Was there shot blocking? How about the defense, what word you use to describe it?

 

[gopens66]

Oh, I swear Kessel could not make a pass or a shot with any mustard on it. Everything came off of his stick like it was fired by a wet noodle. Even his goal didn't have much on it, just banked it off CorpseofTommySalo and in.
When is the last time any of us saw a hard rising laser of a shot we know he has/had?

 

[AjaxTelamon]

Super solid game.

I continue to believe that the Pens don't care at all about Corsi, but are mainly focused on High Danger Scoring Chances.

76% HDSC in that game. (73% at 5v5) That is domination. Kept Columbus to the perimeter all game.

In the 3rd, Columbus had one HDSC, which was on their power play.

One.

If you give up less major scoring chances than you lead by, you're going to win.

And that is where Murray excels relative to his peers. Not only in making the saves, but in controlling the puck. With Guds and JJ boxing out and putting guys on their wallets when they go to the dirty areas, it's a formula that, on paper, works.

It's nice to see it work in the games too.

What a great joke on the entirety of HF if the Pens have found a way to moneyball the [semi] advanced stats like Corsi to find players that actually lead to winning vs. finding players that win the advanced stats contest.

 

[pistolpete11]

Be brutally honest...did you ACTUALLY believe that, or did you WANT to believe that?

I also brought up how moving JJ to the left side would help. I ACTUALLY believed that.

But I thought it would take him from atrocious to just plain bad. The turnaround he's made is pretty remarkable and I don't believe anyone if they say they saw this coming. Hopefully he can keep it up.

 

[Empoleon8771]

What a great joke on the entirety of HF if the Pens have found a way to moneyball the [semi] advanced stats like Corsi to find players that actually lead to winning vs. finding players that win the advanced stats contest.

I feel like the Penguins have 2 great examples of these kind of players on their team right now with plays from last night that showed this: Simon and Johnson. Simon has been dreadful for the last 20ish games at this point, but his analytics stats are off the chart good. Last night showed an excellent reason for that, it's because he's shooting from the blue line at nearly every opportunity he could. With Johnson, he has been really solid recently but his analytics are terrible. There was a play last night where a Jackets forward took a shot, Johnson blocked it, got possession of the puck after the block and then skated it out of the zone. That's terrible analytically because it counts as a corsi against, but it was a really effective way at getting the puck from the Jackets forward in practice.

What Johnson did on that play is 100% more conductive for winning games, but what Simon did is 100% better analytically. It's why I've been growing less and less fond of advanced stats, shot differentials don't necessarily show how good a player is playing.

I also brought up how moving JJ to the left side would help. I ACTUALLY believed that.

But I thought it would take him from atrocious to just plain bad. The turnaround he's made is pretty remarkable and I don't believe anyone if they say they saw this coming. Hopefully he can keep it up.

I didn't see him playing this well coming, but I'm also not necessarily surprised he can play this well. I feel like the hatred Johnson got from the day he signed here was over the line and it blinded a lot of people when it came to reality with Johnson. He only had 1 bad year, he was really solid in 2016-2017. It's not surprising that with a good puck moving partner in the correct role on a team that is composed defensively, he can be really effective with his talents.

 

[ColePens]

Relax, I was mostly kidding. Speaking of kidding, anyone seen Angrrus lately?

Lol hell no. They all run away when the Pens are doing well. They all do.

 

[SHOOTANDSCORE]

He probably should dump the puck more - or just keep skating with it towards the net when he doesn't have support - but having more support when he gets over the line would help. To me that's the big one.

Good point. Seems like a lot of the time he has room to skate but he's developed the bad habit of pulling up and trying to force something just inside the line.

 

[Peat]

I also brought up how moving JJ to the left side would help. I ACTUALLY believed that.

But I thought it would take him from atrocious to just plain bad. The turnaround he's made is pretty remarkable and I don't believe anyone if they say they saw this coming. Hopefully he can keep it up.

I brought it up but more in hope than anything.

The interesting question is what happens when the forwards stop playing like this.

I feel like the Penguins have 2 great examples of these kind of players on their team right now with plays from last night that showed this: Simon and Johnson. Simon has been dreadful for the last 20ish games at this point, but his analytics stats are off the chart good. Last night showed an excellent reason for that, it's because he's shooting from the blue line at nearly every opportunity he could. With Johnson, he has been really solid recently but his analytics are terrible. There was a play last night where a Jackets forward took a shot, Johnson blocked it, got possession of the puck after the block and then skated it out of the zone. That's terrible analytically because it counts as a corsi against, but it was a really effective way at getting the puck from the Jackets forward in practice.

What Johnson did on that play is 100% more conductive for winning games, but what Simon did is 100% better analytically. It's why I've been growing less and less fond of advanced stats, shot differentials don't necessarily show how good a player is playing.

Except that Simon's best possession stat is HDCF%. I mean, you're right that CF% and even SF% are a little bit crap at times, and there's a reason Sully's more or less outright said he doesn't think much of them, but Simon's been showing up where it matters. Tbh, I think he's been playing better than you're saying anyway.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Except that Simon's best possession stat is HDCF%. I mean, you're right that CF% and even SF% are a little bit crap at times, and there's a reason Sully's more or less outright said he doesn't think much of them, but Simon's been showing up where it matters. Tbh, I think he's been playing better than you're saying anyway.

Simon's HDCF% is really good because he's somehow really good at limiting high danger chances against, not that he's really good at generating high danger chances for.

Simon PIT 1819

Look at Simon's shots taken and shots allowed charts. He's about even with the rest of the team in terms of threat level offensively, but he's way better than the rest of the team (and significantly above league average) defensively.

 

[UnrealMachine]

Simon's HDCF% is really good because he's somehow really good at limiting high danger chances against, not that he's really good at generating high danger chances for.

Simon PIT 1819

Look at Simon's shots taken and shots allowed charts. He's about even with the rest of the team in terms of threat level offensively, but he's way better than the rest of the team (and significantly above league average) defensively.

It's o-kay to be good defensively?!?

 

[Beau Knows]

I hope the defence keeps doing what they're doing when Letang comes back. Everyone is playing a real simple game back there, Letang is the one guy who should be allowed to deviate from that, they need to keep playing their game while he plays his.

 

[pistolpete11]

I brought it up but more in hope than anything.

The interesting question is what happens when the forwards stop playing like this.

My biggest question is how much does Maatta's game improve with a) Schultz back and b) the forwards playing like this? If it's done this for JMFJ, what would it do for him?

 

[Peat]

Simon's HDCF% is really good because he's somehow really good at limiting high danger chances against, not that he's really good at generating high danger chances for.

Simon PIT 1819

Look at Simon's shots taken and shots allowed charts. He's about even with the rest of the team in terms of threat level offensively, but he's way better than the rest of the team (and significantly above league average) defensively.

And his CF and SF are also high because he's one of the team leaders in both departments too.

My point here is that's there more to this than shots from everywhere, and also that there's better stat metrics than corsi and Simon still scores high.

That said, quite a low percentage of his chances this season are high danger. Lowest out of all our forwards who've been here all season in fact. Can't help but wonder if there's a correlation with how many of the forwards who've scored lowly on this have been sent packing - which isn't great news for the Florida Men, as they're even lower than Simon so far.

My biggest question is how much does Maatta's game improve with a) Schultz back and b) the forwards playing like this? If it's done this for JMFJ, what would it do for him?

Probably quite a lot...

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I'm getting frustrated with Geno turning pucks over at the blue line. Stars are going to turn the puck over, that's a given, but he needs to crack down on that. It's been going on for too long and I'm worried he doesn't feel it's a problem. It's March, suck it up and dump the puck when you have to.

You can't judge him until you see him play all his shifts with Kris Letang. Jack Johnson's mere presence is causing him to turn over the puck.

 

[Empoleon8771]

And his CF and SF are also high because he's one of the team leaders in both departments too.

My point here is that's there more to this than shots from everywhere, and also that there's better stat metrics than corsi and Simon still scores high.

That said, quite a low percentage of his chances this season are high danger. Lowest out of all our forwards who've been here all season in fact. Can't help but wonder if there's a correlation with how many of the forwards who've scored lowly on this have been sent packing - which isn't great news for the Florida Men, as they're even lower than Simon so far.

But having a high CF is worthless if you're just shooting the puck from the blue line. Someone brought up the comparison to Kunitz a game or 2 ago and it fits really well. Just generating a bunch of shots isn't worth anything if they're low danger shots. In Simon's case, they're about on par with the rest of the team, so he's fine. However, "fine" is worse than what his stats paint him to be. If you want to talk about the validity of Simon being in this conversation, we should be talking about his HDCF alone, which seems pretty poor like you mentioned.

This is also just a tangent to my original point. My original point was that a shot block and skating the puck out of danger helps you way more than taking a low danger shot from the blue line, yet it looks worse analytically. I was just using Simon's recent play as an example.

 

[Empoleon8771]

It's o-kay to be good defensively?!?

The discussion was saying that Simon doesn't deserve to be mentioned in the category of "taking a bunch of low danger shots" because his HDCF% is good. His HDCF% is good because he's really good at limiting chances when he's on the ice, which makes mentioning HDCF% as a rebuttal to "he takes a bunch of low danger shots to get good possession numbers" invalid.

What Simon's offensive advanced stats tell me is that the Penguins attempt a lot of shots when he's on the ice, but they're not good at getting them on net or getting shots in high danger areas. "Not good" means "average" in this case. I feel like that just supports my case of his line just throwing a bunch of low danger shots towards the net when he's on the ice, which really isn't conductive to much success.

 

[Shrimper]

Lol hell no. They all run away when the Pens are doing well. They all do.

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

Maybe Petts can move to RD?

Dumo-Letang
JJ-Schultz
Maatta-Petts

Gudbranson

I don’t see any way the coaching staff moves Pettersson to his off hand. I think it would be an epic fail. When Maatta gets back Pettersson most likely will be sitting. Although if the 3 pairings are all playing great Maatta might have to wait to get in. Until Maatta gets back though those pairings have a chance to make a case for themselves. If Gudbranson keeps playing like he has then no way do they take him out of the lineup to put Pettersson on his off side to take his place. I really like the pairings as is and having that lefty with righty pairings makes this team way better.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

Lol hell no. They all run away when the Pens are doing well. They all do.

Disagree....Bingo71 continues to fight the good fight saying how bad they are even if the Pens were to win 30 games in a row.

 

[Peat]

But having a high CF is worthless if you're just shooting the puck from the blue line. Someone brought up the comparison to Kunitz a game or 2 ago and it fits really well. Just generating a bunch of shots isn't worth anything if they're low danger shots. In Simon's case, they're about on par with the rest of the team, so he's fine. However, "fine" is worse than what his stats paint him to be. If you want to talk about the validity of Simon being in this conversation, we should be talking about his HDCF alone, which seems pretty poor like you mentioned.

This is also just a tangent to my original point. My original point was that a shot block and skating the puck out of danger helps you way more than taking a low danger shot from the blue line, yet it looks worse analytically. I was just using Simon's recent play as an example.

Leaving aside that I disagree with the additional comments about Simon in your comment, I don't think its that simple.

The low danger shot from the blue line isn't always just a shot. Sometimes its the best sort of dump in because if the chase is good you've forced an offensive zone face off. Yes, it can inflate totals and make them look higher than they are, but that doesn't mean its only good play in terms of analytics.

And if blocking a puck (which will show up on the analytics if done regularly) and skating the puck out of danger doesn't result in a chance or shot for, then something has gone wrong and its of limited use.

And of course, in Simon's particular case, a lot more than him dumping the puck in on the goaltender is going on to result in his good analytics, because there's also his extremely good chance and shot suppression and the fact he does still help create a decent amount of good chances. He's also got a better individual scoring chance p/60 rate than Phil.

Yes, there's some things that show up as overinflated in importance in possession stats, but when you use all the stats these things tend to show up. And Simon isn't a great example.

Tbh, if I wanted to look for a man who showed the pointlessness of possession stats, I'd look at Justin Schultz. I don't know what it is he does, but he makes an absolute mockery of them.