Confirmed with Link: Coleman to Tampa Bay for 1st and Nolan Foote

[devilsblood]

What guarantee is there that Coleman will be producing in 3 years or so? Those are the years the Devils are targeting. We saw how much trading picks for proven players like Subban and signing free agents like Simmonds guarantee winning this year.

Everyone knows this trade makes the Devils worse in the short run. Time frame trades can work for both teams. I know Blues fans were thrilled with the Shenn trade. He helped them win a Cup. My Flyer fan buddies are thrilled with it also since Farabee looks like he will be a good player in the years the Flyers were targeting to be a playoff team. They could care less they were marginally worse the last few years because of the trade. If Frost hits they like the trade even more.

Coleman has been ascending, and I'm not sure we've seen his peak, so it's true that "no guarantee's" applies to him as well as the draft picks, but I think it's pretty reasonable to think Coleman will maintain his level of play for at least 3 years.

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

Coleman has been ascending, and I'm not sure we've seen his peak, so it's true that "no guarantee's" applies to him as well as the draft picks, but I think it's pretty reasonable to think Coleman will maintain his level of play for at least 3 years.

No doubt, but NHL aging curves are what they are and the Devils are not a playoff team at this time. But I never get why posters say there are no guarantee with draft picks. There are no guarantees with anything.

 

[MachoDiablo]

I think it's good value if you think you are losing him anyway, but if you think Coleman can be a guy you have around for awhile then I'd much rather have the proven guy.

I get that to a degree, but by the time the team's ready to compete there's every chance Coleman, who plays a pretty intense game, will start showing wear and tear. If he's here on a big contract it'd also potentially limit what the team can do to build around him and the current kids on the roster.

And in the meantime, if we don't stock up on high picks now, where's the team really going to be in a few years, anyway? It's possible that with the strong draft last year and their current cap space they could ice a pretty good team, but the odds of building a real contender are much lower with that strategy, even if the short term future will sting a bit less. It's very, very tough to build a perennial winner if you don't have a strong prospect pipeline, and the Devils simply haven't had one in a long time, and can't put a bandaid over that fact anymore. I'd have loved for Coleman to be here next time the team is good, but if trading him can speed up the replenishment of the system and thus the overall rebuild, so be it.

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

I get that to a degree, but by the time the team's ready to compete there's every chance Coleman, who plays a pretty intense game, will start showing wear and tear. If he's here on a big contract it'd also potentially limit what the team can do to build around him and the current kids on the roster.

And in the meantime, if we don't stock up on high picks now, where's the team really going to be in a few years, anyway? It's possible that with the strong draft last year and their current cap space they could ice a pretty good team, but the odds of building a real contender are much lower with that strategy, even if the short term future will sting a bit less. It's very, very tough to build a perennial winner if you don't have a strong prospect pipeline, and the Devils simply haven't had one in a long time, and can't put a bandaid over that fact anymore. I'd have loved for Coleman to be here next time the team is good, but if trading him can speed up the replenishment of the system and thus the overall rebuild, so be it.

Agree. Typically it is high skill players that age well. There are exceptions. I hope Coleman is one because if anyone deserves a nice final contract, it is Blake.

It is tough to "sell high" on a player, but teams like the Avs have done it with Duchene and are and look to be reaping the benefits of it for years to come.

 

[Call Me Al]

the likelihood of foote and this first round pick being key parts of a devils cup team are much greater than coleman being one.

even if coleman keeps it up for 3 seaons, that's just the beginning of their window which should be open for at least 5 years aftter that with the core that we have locked up

 

[devilsblood]

No doubt, but NHL aging curves are what they are and the Devils are not a playoff team at this time. But I never get why posters say there are no guarantee with draft picks. There are no guarantees with anything.

Well some people do make it seem like since we got a 1st rounder and a former first rounder, even if that first rounder will be somewhere around 20, and the former first was closer to a 2nd rounder then a top 10 pick, that we aced the trade.

We just traded a guy who very well could be our best player. We know he is a legit NHL player, we know he is a fantastic penalty killer, we know he is growing as a goal scorer. We don't know much about the assets coming back. And I think that is the basis of the push back.

 

[devilsblood]

Agree. Typically it is high skill players that age well. There are exceptions. I hope Coleman is one because if anyone deserves a nice final contract, it is Blake.

It is tough to "sell high" on a player, but teams like the Avs have done it with Duchene and are and look to be reaping the benefits of it for years to come.

He's later along the timeline, and he'll probably never reach as high a peak, but his style is fairly similar to Marchand, and that guy is having his best years in his early 30's.

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

He's later along the timeline, and he'll probably never reach as high a peak, but his style is fairly similar to Marchand, and that guy is having his best years in his early 30's.

No doubt. Marchand is an example of an exception.

 

[devilsblood]

No doubt. Marchand is an example of an exception.

And Coleman already is an exception.

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

And Coleman already is an exception.

Coleman is 28. How is someone still in their prime producing age an exeption? Marchand is part of a proven winning core. Coleman is not. It is not Coleman's fault and I am sure he will prove how good of a player he is in Tampa as I am expecting to be a difference maker for then.

 

[devilsblood]

I get that to a degree, but by the time the team's ready to compete there's every chance Coleman, who plays a pretty intense game, will start showing wear and tear. If he's here on a big contract it'd also potentially limit what the team can do to build around him and the current kids on the roster.

And in the meantime, if we don't stock up on high picks now, where's the team really going to be in a few years, anyway? It's possible that with the strong draft last year and their current cap space they could ice a pretty good team, but the odds of building a real contender are much lower with that strategy, even if the short term future will sting a bit less. It's very, very tough to build a perennial winner if you don't have a strong prospect pipeline, and the Devils simply haven't had one in a long time, and can't put a bandaid over that fact anymore. I'd have loved for Coleman to be here next time the team is good, but if trading him can speed up the replenishment of the system and thus the overall rebuild, so be it.

I'm not really arguing against the Coleman deal, I understand he is going to be up for a contract soon, and that he will be 30 in year one of that deal. What I am arguing against is the idea that we got huge value for Coleman.

I'm also against continuing to trade every possible piece, such as Palm's and Gusev or guys like Wood and Sev's. Fine we traded Coleman, and the picks are a part of rebuilding, but we now have a ton of picks.

Vat's and Simmonds make sense, so I'm for adding more picks in that regard, but I'm not all that interested in being completely terrible again next year.

 

[devilsblood]

Coleman is 28. How is someone still in their prime producing age an exeption? Marchand is part of a proven winning core. Coleman is not. It is not Coleman's fault and I am sure he will prove how good of a player he is in Tampa as I am expecting to be a difference maker for then.

He's an exception in terms of how late he has blossomed. Exceptions happen quite often, the trick is to figure out who those guys are, Coleman has the ear marks of a guy who could be a late career producer.

 

[NJDevils17]

Betting against the age curve is how you lose. We shouldn’t be trying to find exceptions when we’re a young, rebuilding team.

Let‘a not act like Blake was some huge core piece. Good? Yes. Fan favorite? Yes. Solid in all situations? Yes.

But he’s 28 and has never had more than 36 points and is on pace for 44. He’d be a 30 year old winger on a big deal when we resigned him.

That type of player isn’t a core piece and I think the fact he’s a fan favorite clouds reality of what he is. A solid player but not one a rebuilding team should be building around.

 

[None Shall Pass]

Tell me as a Tampa fan, what to expect? Why was the price so high? Other then cap hit for next year

Plays hard, scores a lot of goals, great defensively and on the PK. Not out of place in the top-6. He's a beauty.

 

[NJDevils17]

He's an exception in terms of how late he has blossomed. Exceptions happen quite often, the trick is to figure out who those guys are, Coleman has the ear marks of a guy who could be a late career producer.

Do you have any data to back this up or is it just anecdotal? Legit interested but I also find it hard to believe it’s true.

 

[devilsblood]

Do you have any data to back this up or is it just anecdotal? Legit interested but I also find it hard to believe it’s true.

That exceptions happen?

No data, but just look at the recent Devils. Greene was undrafted. Bratt was a 6th rounder. Wood was in prep school producing nothing his draft year. Coleman was a minor leaguer going nowhere at age 25. Blackwood had the type of year in the AHL that never results in a legit NHL career.

What makes Greene an exception is how few undrafted players have successful careers. There are millions of undrafted players, only a very few of them do what Greene has done. But how many undrafted players are currently in the NHL? It's not all that uncommon. Finding them is tough, the ole needle in the haystack, but they are certainly out there.

 

[NJDevils17]

That exceptions happen?

No data, but just look at the recent Devils. Greene was undrafted. Bratt was a 6th rounder. Wood was in prep school producing nothing his draft year. Coleman was a minor leaguer going nowhere at age 25. Blackwood had the type of year in the AHL that never results in a legit NHL career.

What makes Greene an exception is how few undrafted players have successful careers. There are millions of undrafted players, only a very few of them do what Greene has done. But how many undrafted players are currently in the NHL? It's not all that uncommon. Finding them is tough, the ole needle in the haystack, but they are certainly out there.

I mean that what makes it likely Coleman produces past the age apex? He’s an outlier due to his late age breaking in but he was still playing pro hockey, I’m not sure why his late break-out means he could be more productive in his 30s.

 

[MachoDiablo]

I'm not really arguing against the Coleman deal, I understand he is going to be up for a contract soon, and that he will be 30 in year one of that deal. What I am arguing against is the idea that we got huge value for Coleman.

I'm also against continuing to trade every possible piece, such as Palm's and Gusev or guys like Wood and Sev's. Fine we traded Coleman, and the picks are a part of rebuilding, but we now have a ton of picks.

Vat's and Simmonds make sense, so I'm for adding more picks in that regard, but I'm not all that interested in being completely terrible again next year.

I think most of us are close to being on the same page in all of this, but it looks like it's a matter of what some of us are willing to put up with next season if we do deal away just about anyone who isn't nailed down.

Personally speaking, I won't really mind if Palms gets dealt alongside Vat and Simmonds, so long as the return is worthwhile. Would I rather keep Palms? Sure, dude's a local product who scores 30 goals a year and likes being here, plus it'd be nice to have him around to guide some of the younger guys as they grow into the new team leaders. But Palms is another guy who likely either won't be here or won't be nearly the contributor he currently is by the next time the team is a real contender, so I don't mind him being sold off, again, if the return is a strong one.

For me, I'm just kind of fed up with trying to piece a "good enough" team together each season, only for it not to work out (outside of 2018, of course) and leaving us with nothing to look forward to. I'm tired of "if we had just been decent in the shootout we could've made the playoffs" or other things like that; even in seasons where that was true, it still showed the Devils weren't more than a bubble team. If that's the best we can strive for, then I'm ok with just tearing it down and going with a fully-stocked youth movement, instead, rather than bringing in a bunch of vets every offseason and only developing a few good players around them. I get why other people aren't excited by that (or want to spend money to see it in person), but the alternative has given us too many seasons like this one.

 

[Triumph]

I'm very skeptical of Coleman producing well into his 30s, he plays with reckless abandon and is one of the hit leaders in the NHL (he may not be, but adjusting for venue he almost certainly is). Plus he has a very clear ceiling in terms of what he can do - he simply cannot pass in open ice. I'd be very surprised if he were able to add that to his game. So his improvements would have to come from skating, puck handling, shooting, etc. and I'm just not sure there's a ton of room for him to keep improving there.

 

[OmNomNom]

I'm very skeptical of Coleman producing well into his 30s, he plays with reckless abandon and is one of the hit leaders in the NHL (he may not be, but adjusting for venue he almost certainly is). Plus he has a very clear ceiling in terms of what he can do - he simply cannot pass in open ice. I'd be very surprised if he were able to add that to his game. So his improvements would have to come from skating, puck handling, shooting, etc. and I'm just not sure there's a ton of room for him to keep improving there.

NHL.com Stats

55th for this season, 81st over the last 3 seasons (min 20 GP)

 

[Sgt Brylin]

I don't get all these posts about "hating the trade, keeping guys like Coleman around".

It's been pretty much confirmed that there was a bidding war between Boston, Avs, Edmonton and Tampa for him now. The idea that someone commanding that much attention from contenders already is going to sign here long-term at 30 to be a part of the rebuild is absurd. Coleman was always going to be gone in a year, getting this haul for him now is exactly the right thing to do. Good on Fitz to not pull a Lou and Parise/Clarktard'ing him.

 

[Triumph]

NHL.com Stats

55th for this season, 81st over the last 3 seasons (min 20 GP)

He's 17th in road hits - NJ way undercounts hits relative to other venues (NYI, EDM off the top of my head are huge overcounters)

 

[Lou is God]

One thing overlooked about this trade is if Fitz waited till the deadline next week, I dunno if he would have gotten the return he got in the two trades on Sunday, as the deadline gets closer and more players get moved it turns more into a buyers market than sellers.

 

[Triumph]

One thing overlooked about this trade is if Fitz waited till the deadline next week, I dunno if he would have gotten the return he got in the two trades on Sunday, as the deadline gets closer and more players get moved it turns more into a buyers market than sellers.

I don't think so - Coleman was always going to be a seller's market because almost no one is selling a player like Coleman who plays that style of game and has a very cheap year left on his contract. Alec Martinez is probably going to move (seems like that trade got held up), but there's not going to be a lot of players with term likely to move at this deadline. What you're saying is true for someone like Andy Greene, though.

 

[Lou is God]

I don't think so - Coleman was always going to be a seller's market because almost no one is selling a player like Coleman who plays that style of game and has a very cheap year left on his contract. Alec Martinez is probably going to move (seems like that trade got held up), but there's not going to be a lot of players with term likely to move at this deadline. What you're saying is true for someone like Andy Greene, though.

Fitz said the package he got was a result of multiple teams competing for him, as you get closer to the deadline those other teams might have made deals, decided to go in another direction in spending assets, etc. so while we'd still might get a nice return for Coleman, I think it's less likely than more that we would have gotten the same return.