Confirmed with Link: Coleman to Tampa Bay for 1st and Nolan Foote

[NjdevilfanJim]

Blake Coleman is a really good player and most NHL players do not get to be as good as him. I suggest, if you're more inclined, to take a look at the last 6 picks of the drafts between 2009 and 2013:

2009: Caron, Palmieri, Paradis, Olsen, Ashton, Despres. Palmieri is the only one still in the NHL. Despres had concussion problems but was a 4/5th defenseman
2010: Howden, Kuznetsov, Coyle, Visentin, Etem, Nelson. Nelson, Kuznetsov, and Coyle are excelling, the other 3 are not in the NHL.
2011: Percy, Namestnikov, Danault, Phillips, Jensen, Rakell - Namestnikov is a fine top 9 player, Danault's good, Rakell's good, the other 3 aren't in the NHL
2012: Schmaltz, Gaunce, Samuelsson, Skjei, Matteau, Pearson - Skjei and Pearson are NHLers, the other 4 are not.
2013: McCarron, Dano, Theodore, Klimchuk, Dickinson, Hartman - Theodore is a very solid D man, Dickinson and Hartman are NHLers but with limited impact.

Most of these guys were really good in junior (or college, or wherever). Many of these guys were really good in the AHL, too. The majority of them do not play in the NHL now. I like Nolan Foote, I'm glad the Devils have him and I'm glad they made the trade. But the odds are still against him becoming a full-time NHLer.

Don't forget he is a grade A prospect so odds are slimmer for him that he'll bust out...at first I thought they got Cal once I realized it was Nolan instead that made the trade.....he had a great juniors and fits the age group they are building around....and he's his biggest critic similar mindset of Coleman I think he's going to be a player.

 

[Camille the Eel]

I don't think he said that: it's more that you have to consider making moves right now that will make it feel like a step backwards next year in order to move forward down the line, but that doesn't necessarily mean next year's team needs to be like Detroit this season or something.

I think the entire point of doing that is because we do have faith in the young guys we currently have, and it just makes sense to surround them with even more young, potentially impactful talent that can grow alongside them, with the guy who are already here likely being primed for leadership roles. It's saying "this is your team, now" to them, whereas going into this year it felt like the goal was to make this Taylor Hall's team going forward, if he had been willing to sign an extension.

Well if the Bruins were to offer us Brandon Carlo straight up for Palms (though I'm not sure how long Carlo is signed for) we'd have to consider it very seriously, probably have to do it because a move like that transforms your club. But on the other hand if it's Matt Gryzleck or Tory Krug, even if you're able to sign them, you're probably not going to move. Just a hypothetical to illustrate the continuum. I do want to keep Palms very much.

In figuring these things management has to account for how the fans do get attached to players. It's not an irrelevant point at all.

 

[HBK27]

Underrated part of this trade is that by getting Vancouver's pick instead of Tampa's, if you want to root for Coleman and the Bolts to win the Cup you don't have to worry about that negatively impacting one of NJ's draft picks.

 

[Blackjack]

Well if the Bruins were to offer us Brandon Carlo straight up for Palms (though I'm not sure how long Carlo is signed for) we'd have to consider it very seriously, probably have to do it because a move like that transforms your club. But on the other hand if it's Matt Gryzleck or Tory Krug, even if you're able to sign them, you're probably not going to move. Just a hypothetical to illustrate the continuum. I do want to keep Palms very much.

In figuring these things management has to account for how the fans do get attached to players. It's not an irrelevant point at all.

You'd never get Carlo for Palmieri. I was trying to come up with a trade around Severson and Carlo where the Devils add something to make it worthwhile for the Bruins, but at the end of the day I think The Devils lose too much in Severson.

 

[ninetyeight]

Blake Coleman is a really good player and most NHL players do not get to be as good as him. I suggest, if you're more inclined, to take a look at the last 6 picks of the drafts between 2009 and 2013:

2009: Caron, Palmieri, Paradis, Olsen, Ashton, Despres. Palmieri is the only one still in the NHL. Despres had concussion problems but was a 4/5th defenseman
2010: Howden, Kuznetsov, Coyle, Visentin, Etem, Nelson. Nelson, Kuznetsov, and Coyle are excelling, the other 3 are not in the NHL.
2011: Percy, Namestnikov, Danault, Phillips, Jensen, Rakell - Namestnikov is a fine top 9 player, Danault's good, Rakell's good, the other 3 aren't in the NHL
2012: Schmaltz, Gaunce, Samuelsson, Skjei, Matteau, Pearson - Skjei and Pearson are NHLers, the other 4 are not.
2013: McCarron, Dano, Theodore, Klimchuk, Dickinson, Hartman - Theodore is a very solid D man, Dickinson and Hartman are NHLers but with limited impact.

Most of these guys were really good in junior (or college, or wherever). Many of these guys were really good in the AHL, too. The majority of them do not play in the NHL now. I like Nolan Foote, I'm glad the Devils have him and I'm glad they made the trade. But the odds are still against him becoming a full-time NHLer.

This is a bit too analytical even for me. Every draft is different, every player is different, bunch of people drafted after the first round become NHLers. You can't just take a small sample and draw a conclusion like that. What happened 5 picks earlier, how about 5 picks later? Considering that about 40-50 skaters eventually become NHLers every year, the odds for a first rounder to do so are pretty good.

But yeah every prospect and pick is a gamble, that's why we have plenty of them so that eventually few will pan out. If we go by your example Nolan Foote has a 40% chance to pan out as an NHLer. Now what were the odds that Blake Coleman signs with us in 18months and doesn't bolt to Dallas? 50%? How about him still being a competitive player in 4-5 years when our kids are in their prime?

 

[Camille the Eel]

You'd never get Carlo for Palmieri. I was trying to come up with a trade around Severson and Carlo where the Devils add something to make it worthwhile for the Bruins, but at the end of the day I think The Devils lose too much in Severson.

Yeah I know. Will never happen. Or Krug - who’s going to be a UFA anyway or, more interestingly, Gryzleck - who is a player I like a great deal (skates brilliantly, lots of facility with the puck and defends well) despite actually being quite light and small - about Krug’s size, maybe 175 pounds.

The problem is nobody is going to want to give up a real player - as when Columbus snatched Seth Jones for Ryan Johansson. They are all going to try to give you picks for your playoff ready best guy. And frankly, who needs more late first round picks here? Unless we get someone who is ready now and who actually makes us a better team, no way I would trade Palms. He’s the very identity of this club, a community guy with his foundation and all - pay him and sign him up for 5 years or whatever it takes. We’ve got plenty of cap space. He’s a legit scorer and a gritty guy too.

 

[Triumph]

This is a bit too analytical even for me. Every draft is different, every player is different, bunch of people drafted after the first round become NHLers. You can't just take a small sample and draw a conclusion like that. What happened 5 picks earlier, how about 5 picks later? Considering that about 40-50 skaters eventually become NHLers every year, the odds for a first rounder to do so are pretty good.

I mean this isn't really analytical at all - all I did was post the results of 6 recent drafts. It's meant to be illustrative - it's easy to remember the hits like Kuznetsov and Palmieri, it's harder to remember the misses, and there's many more misses than hits. It's also just much easier than going through WHL stats to try to find comparables.

The Devils aren't looking for 'NHLers' - they're looking for top 9 forwards and top 4 D.

But yeah every prospect and pick is a gamble, that's why we have plenty of them so that eventually few will pan out. If we go by your example Nolan Foote has a 40% chance to pan out as an NHLer. Now what were the odds that Blake Coleman signs with us in 18months and doesn't bolt to Dallas? 50%? How about him still being a competitive player in 4-5 years when our kids are in their prime?

You're arguing against a point I'm not making. I never said the Devils made a bad trade - on the contrary, I think the trade is good. I just think everyone needs to temper their expectations a bit with Foote, a player who has had a solid Draft+1 season but is not setting the world on fire, either. He's a fine prospect.

 

[glenwo2]

My god.....

 

[The Wumpus]

My god.....

All aboard the Coletrain.
Outstanding.

 

[jkrdevil]

This board should have enough experience with guys picked 25-32 to know they are not any where close to a guarantee.

 

[Guttersniped]

This board should have enough experience with guys picked 25-32 to know they are not any where close to a guarantee.

You’re probably overestimating how well the Canucks are doing and how well they will do in the playoffs by suggesting there’s a chance they end up with the 28th-31st pick.

 

[ninetyeight]

I think he was refering to Foote as 25-32. One thing people forget is that a lot has happened after 2019 draft, and we’ve seen a lot more of Foote. He had a great showing in WJC, and by the time the devils got him, there were way less uncertainty than when he was drafted.

 

[EliasFTW]

My god.....

All aboard the Coletrain.
Outstanding.

 

[jkrdevil]

You’re probably overestimating how well the Canucks are doing and how well they will do in the playoffs by suggesting there’s a chance they end up with the 28th-31st pick.

I was referring the Foote (who the discussion was about), who was drafted #27 last year

 

[jkrdevil]

I think he was refering to Foote as 25-32. One thing people forget is that a lot has happened after 2019 draft, and we’ve seen a lot more of Foote. He had a great showing in WJC, and by the time the devils got him, there were way less uncertainty than when he was drafted.

I was. This is also true. For the record I like the trade and the pickup.

 

[glenwo2]

I was referring the Foote (who the discussion was about), who was drafted #27 last year

You're right that nothing is for certain but that's true for ALL Draft Picks (sans McDavid) historically.

At least with Foote, the Devils get him while he's more along in his development than he was when he was drafted.

And he's looking pretty good right now.

That is why I was ecstatic that the Devils got him along with the Draft Pick for Pickles.

We are getting a player that is more than likely to be an NHL'er than not.

Plus, he'll get his opportunity here whereas he wouldn't get any opportunity on that stacked Bolts team.