Cholowski's Ceiling

[SCD]

The following was posted by Pronman on The Athletic this morning.

Dennis Cholowski, D
Cholowski was Detroit’s best defenseman and stood out consistently due to his mobility and puck-moving ability. He impacted the transition game and ran the top power play unit well, showing more touch with the puck than I remember seeing in past viewings. I know some scouts who were impressed by him in the WHL, and if this is the player he is consistently in the AHL this season, I could see him panning out as a 4-5 defenseman in the NHL.

I was going to wait to post this thread until after the preseason, but this article changed my mind. I find it interesting how Cholowski remains off the radar nationally. I see a huge upside with this kid, minimum top 4 defenseman, possibly top two.

Click to read more...

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Wow, panning out as a 4-5. Awesome. Glad we spent #20 on that. The best defenseman in our pool and a scout can "see him panning out as a 4/5. Just yuck.

 

[datsyukfan]

This kid won’t be a 4-5 d-man I think at minimum he is a 3 and I would safely say he is going to be a #2. Watching him yesterday it looked like a man amongst boys with the way he processed the game. That Datsyuk trade is going to look genius when cholo is a #2 and Hronek is a #3. Getting very excited for the d-men we have coming

 

[raymond23]

I'm trying to stay cautious considering how our last crop of defenseman turned out.

I think he'll be a quality second-pairing defenseman. Hoping for more though.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

Wow, panning out as a 4-5. Awesome. Glad we spent #20 on that. The best defenseman in our pool and a scout can "see him panning out as a 4/5. Just yuck.

Yeah, no kidding, Pronman makes it sound like he's singing his praises, only to sort of pull the rug out at the end there. Yikes.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Yeah, no kidding, Pronman makes it sound like he's singing his praises, only to sort of pull the rug out at the end there. Yikes.

How bad did he think Cholowski was if a fantastic prospect tournament where he was notably better than anything Pronman remembered seeing gets him to... yeah, he could stick as a bottom pair guy.

 

[marcmadsen]

Yeah, no kidding, Pronman makes it sound like he's singing his praises, only to sort of pull the rug out at the end there. Yikes.

Pronman serving up underhanded compliments and negging Cholowski, you'd think he's at a bar and trying to pick him up for a one night stand

 

[lhsgolf19]

Pronman is a moron, sorry that is all lol... I'll eat my hat if his ceiling is a 4 ha

 

[Frk It]

Pet peeve- We really shouldn’t say things like “minimum top 4” for any guys picked outside the top 5. Sorry, but prospects outside of that range just don’t have that kind of floor. This happens far too often on here.

I think Cholowski has pretty good upside, and Pronman is definitely selling him short. But he is an unknown commodity still as a pro player.

 

[marcmadsen]

Pronman is just hedging. It's so much easier to go on record as say Cholowski could pan out as a 4/5 than to actually be bold and say a 2/3. It's always easier to accept being wrong when you undersell someone but most people have a hard time when they way overshot someone. It's like, if Pronman predicts Cholowski as a 4/5 and he ends up being a 2/3 then Pronman can say, "oh, I was wrong but am pleasantly surprised. So I'll take that no problem. Who could have predicted Cholowski would be that good!?". Whereas if he predicts Cholowski as a 2/3 and then he busts, Pronman looks like he has no clue in assessing prospects and it damages his rep. He's just following the general media consensus to date on Cholowski

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Pet peeve- We really shouldn’t say things like “minimum top 4” for any guys picked outside the top 5. Sorry, but prospects outside of that range just don’t have that kind of floor. This happens far too often on here.

I think Cholowski has pretty good upside, and Pronman is definitely selling him short. But he is an unknown commodity still as a pro player.

Right. The issue I take with Pronmans thing is that he’s saying that if Cholowski keeps doing this and us Detroit’s top defensive prospect... aka everything goes perfect... he’ll be a borderline middle pairing guy

 

[Frk It]

Right. The issue I take with Pronmans thing is that he’s saying that if Cholowski keeps doing this and us Detroit’s top defensive prospect... aka everything goes perfect... he’ll be a borderline middle pairing guy

Yeah, that’s a load of crap. He should at least give specifics as to what he feels is limiting his potential.

He provides nothing in that regard, but then limits his ceiling?

 

[jkutswings]

Change 4/5 to 3/4 and I think it's about right at this (very very early) stage of his career. Cholowski seems to be ahead of original projections, which is encouraging. But continued patience with both his development and any associated accolades is probably the right move.

Hronek should get a good look, and hopefully he can withstand the shock of playing against much better opponents while having fairly lousy teammates, even for a limited dose or two. Cholo can hopefully marinate one more year to really get him ready for a serious NHL trial in the fall of 2019, and by then, it should be an interesting update on his progress.

 

[Fear]

If you look at Cholowski's career as a whole, why should he be regarded as a "minimum top-4 guy"?

2015-2016 - Plays in BCHL (lower level junior league than WHL), drafted #20
2016-2017 - Plays in college, not good enough to get significant minutes or playing time.
2017-2018 - Plays in WHL as a 19-20 year old, has a good but not fantastic season and a meh playoff run.
September 7-10, 2018 - Has a great prospect tournament.

People always put way too much stock in these tournaments.

 

[Henkka]

Pronman has been too many times off with defencemen so I won't lose my sleep about anything he writes about Cholowski.

He is good predicting forward talent.

 

[SCD]

If you look at Cholowski's career as a whole, why should he be regarded as a "minimum top-4 guy"?

Part of the problem is people dwell on statistics without looking at the whole package. Until this summer, he has been physically immature compared to his contemporaries.

 

[SirloinUB]

Pronman also has a slant towards the flashy in that he doesn't appreciate simple, yet effective players the way others do. For context here is what Pronman wrote about Larkin:

Larkin is one of the top power forwards available in this year's draft class, and is an outstanding skater ... He has a fine but not outstanding amount of skill, but gains the offensive zone very often due to his skating ability. Larkin has average size, but he's pretty strong on the puck and has a fantastic on-ice work ethic. He drives the net, muscles out opponents in battles and gets back on defense effectively. He kills penalties well and he can be a shorthanded scoring threat.

I have personally felt Cholowski flew under the radar while playing in Prince George and Portland. When I watch him I am hopeful we can get a Slavin type of player. Cholowski might not consistently give you 45+ points with A+ PP ability but he has a great head for the game and is very mobile with good passing abilities. As he builds strength he should be the guy that is just effective in all situations logging 22 minutes a night.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Keep in mind that Pronman has been very low on Cholowski, essentially not rating him among top 100 prospects at any point and had him pretty low on the Wings list of top prospects recently. The lines "I know some scouts who were impressed by him in the WHL" and "showing more touch with the puck than I remember" reveals that he probably hasn't watched the guy too much himself.

If you look at Cholowski's career as a whole, why should he be regarded as a "minimum top-4 guy"?

2015-2016 - Plays in BCHL (lower level junior league than WHL), drafted #20
2016-2017 - Plays in college, not good enough to get significant minutes or playing time.
2017-2018 - Plays in WHL as a 19-20 year old, has a good but not fantastic season and a meh playoff run.
September 7-10, 2018 - Has a great prospect tournament.

People always put way too much stock in these tournaments.

How much did you actually watch him during any of these seasons?

 

[Ezekial]

Pronman has always been low on Cholowski.

Pronman also is the type of guy that pushes his narrative about a player until he can't possibly do it anymore.

Cholowski's ceiling is certainly a top pair D.

 

[Frk It]

If you look at Cholowski's career as a whole, why should he be regarded as a "minimum top-4 guy"?

2015-2016 - Plays in BCHL (lower level junior league than WHL), drafted #20
2016-2017 - Plays in college, not good enough to get significant minutes or playing time.
2017-2018 - Plays in WHL as a 19-20 year old, has a good but not fantastic season and a meh playoff run.
September 7-10, 2018 - Has a great prospect tournament.

People always put way too much stock in these tournaments.

I know in his draft year he was billed as an offensive defenseman, but I think he projects more as a two way guy.

So I don’t really know that you can look at his stats and know everything about his progesss as a prospect.

He had a pretty good year in the WHL, definitely logged a lot of minutes. Hopefully him and McIsaac can shore up the left side of our defense. I think that has actually been our weaker side since Kronner’s knees went downhill.

 

[jkutswings]

Pronman has always been low on Cholowski.

Pronman also is the type of guy that pushes his narrative about a player until he can't possibly do it anymore.

No argument there on either point.

Cholowski's ceiling is certainly a top pair D.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but what has led you to being confident in this statement? Lots of kids who look good in the WHL end up as garbage once they reach the real competition. I'm definitely not expecting Cholowski to be a bust, but I'm also not aware of anything specific in his progress thus far to indicate he's got a real shot to make top pair, as opposed to capping out as a smart #3 who's just shy of holding his own against top opposing forwards.

 

[Ezekial]

No argument there on either point.



I'm not saying you're wrong, but what has led you to being confident in this statement? Lots of kids who look good in the WHL end up as garbage once they reach the real competition. I'm definitely not expecting Cholowski to be a bust, but I'm also not aware of anything specific in his progress thus far to indicate he's got a real shot to make top pair, as opposed to capping out as a smart #3 who's just shy of holding his own against top opposing forwards.

I think ceilings are stupid.
No one ever said Karlsson's ceiling was a 70 point player with a massive shooting percentage.
Ceilings are just opinions each person has of what they project a player to be. It's a nothing opinion.

Players don't reach their ceilings until they've done it, projecting them is dumb.

Cholowski could become a two way minute muncher who plays solid D and moves the puck out of his own end readily. Defining who he is after continually progressing physically and as a player is short sighted. Dennis Cholowski's ceiling has changed in the past year, which had changed from when he was drafted.

Will he ever be a Norris candidate, probably not, but to restrict him to nothing more than a bottom 3 D right now is dumb.

 

[Frk It]

I think ceilings are stupid.
No one ever said Karlsson's ceiling was a 70 point player with a massive shooting percentage.
Ceilings are just opinions each person has of what they project a player to be. It's a nothing opinion.

Players don't reach their ceilings until they've done it, projecting them is dumb.

Cholowski could become a two way minute muncher who plays solid D and moves the puck out of his own end readily. Defining who he is after continually progressing physically and as a player is short sighted. Dennis Cholowski's ceiling has changed in the past year, which had changed from when he was drafted.

Will he ever be a Norris candidate, probably not, but to restrict him to nothing more than a bottom 3 D right now is dumb.

I also think this is true to an extent.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I think ceilings are stupid.
No one ever said Karlsson's ceiling was a 70 point player with a massive shooting percentage.
Ceilings are just opinions each person has of what they project a player to be. It's a nothing opinion.

Players don't reach their ceilings until they've done it, projecting them is dumb.

Cholowski could become a two way minute muncher who plays solid D and moves the puck out of his own end readily. Defining who he is after continually progressing physically and as a player is short sighted. Dennis Cholowski's ceiling has changed in the past year, which had changed from when he was drafted.

Will he ever be a Norris candidate, probably not, but to restrict him to nothing more than a bottom 3 D right now is dumb.

Ceilings are especially dumb for players like Cholowski. It's one thing if a player has some glaring flaws. Cholowski has all the tools you could ask for. The defining flaw for him has been his size/strength. That doesn't mean he has unlimited potential, but bottom 3D are essentially guys that have a big element missing. Either they suck at D and need to be sheltered, or they have zero offensive ability, or they are poor skaters, or they can only skate (Jensen). No reason Cholo's ceiling isn't at least at a Dekeyser 2.0 level.

 

[SCD]

No reason Cholo's ceiling isn't at least at a Dekeyser 2.0 level.

Did you have to talk about him in the same sentence as DDK ?