Confirmed Trade: [CGY/EDM] James Neal for Milan Lucic (12.5% retained) and a 2020 conditional 3rd round pick Part 3

[DJJones]

The point is that shooting isn’t something that just goes away. I’d have to imagine there’s reasons behind it. I’ve seen injury, and I’ve seen his stick manufacturer stopped making his curve or something (it was weird) but you don’t just lose the ability to finish overnight.

Haha and yet here we are. Sometimes people just lose it.

I thought it was a great signing a year ago. Couldn't believe how inept he was

 

[blankall]

The point is that shooting isn’t something that just goes away. I’d have to imagine there’s reasons behind it. I’ve seen injury, and I’ve seen his stick manufacturer stopped making his curve or something (it was weird) but you don’t just lose the ability to finish overnight.

Neal will be 32 by the time he season starts again. That is when many players begin to have a sudden drop off in play. A lot of Neal's finish depending on him making big efforts to get to pucks. That was something he wouldn't or couldn't do in Calgary.

 

[CupofOil]

Team A: 6.5M 7 goal player but we can spend 3M to buy him out
Team B: 5.25M 6 goal scorer and nmc.

Team A: woohoo we r winning. We can saddle our best player with this beauty and hope he can come through

Team B. We were ****ed and still ****ed

6.5M?
Just because the Oilers retained on Lucic, that doesn't change the fact that Neal's contract is still 5.75M. The retention changes the Lucic contract for the Flames, not the Neal contract for the Oilers.

It's a junk for junk trade, both players will probably continue to be junk next season and going forward but the Oilers got the player with the more manageable contract so if both players suck, this is a win for the Oilers based on contract alone.

Both players needed a change of scenery, both players fill a need for their respective teams if they get the most out of their abilities (Neal with goal scoring, Lucic with toughness) so it could be a win win in that sense. More than likely, it'll be a lose lose for both teams on the ice and a win for the Oilers based on contract. Not a big win but a win at least the way it looks now. Nothing to really brag about but we'll take it after so many years of losing trades.

 

[jeffff]

Scenario A) Both players suck next year. Oilers win the trade because Neal can be bought out, or demoted.

Scenario B) Neal improves, Lucic doesn't. Oilers win trade by a landslide. (most lopsided trade in years)

Scenario C) Lucic improves, Neal doesn't. Calgary wins but still have to deal with Lucics NMC and can't be protected for Seattle.

Scenario D) Both Lucic and Neal have a year that they're known for. Oilers win the trade because a productive Neal is better than a productive Lucic.

3 out of 4 scenarios...Oilers win the trade. Out of those 4 scenarios, which one is most likely?

 

[Johnnybegood13]

Scenario A) Both players suck next year. Oilers win the trade because Neal can be bought out, or demoted.

Scenario B) Neal improves, Lucic doesn't. Oilers win trade by a landslide. (most lopsided trade in years)

Scenario C) Lucic improves, Neal doesn't. Calgary wins but still have to deal with Lucics NMC and can't be protected for Seattle.

Scenario D) Both Lucic and Neal have a year that they're known for. Oilers win the trade because a productive Neal is better than a productive Lucic.

3 out of 4 scenarios...Oilers win the trade. Out of those 4 scenarios, which one is most likely?

Lets pick Scenario A) Both suck at camp and both are bought out.
Oilers cost) $18,020.833
Flames cost) $18,812.500

Seems like a small win for the Oilers except they paid Lucic $3m in July

 

[TFHockey]

Lets pick Scenario A) Both suck at camp and both are bought out.
Oilers cost) $18,020.833
Flames cost) $18,812.500

Seems like a small win for the Oilers except they paid Lucic $3m in July

Ignoring the cap hit hey?

 

[blue_n_copper]

Lets pick Scenario A) Both suck at camp and both are bought out.
Oilers cost) $18,020.833
Flames cost) $18,812.500

Seems like a small win for the Oilers except they paid Lucic $3m in July

Is this some kind of joke? No one cares about actual dollars, its the cap hit.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Lets pick Scenario A) Both suck at camp and both are bought out.
Oilers cost) $18,020.833
Flames cost) $18,812.500

Seems like a small win for the Oilers except they paid Lucic $3m in July

Neal's buyout is significantly better as the cap hit is significantly lower, because the dollars are irrelevant (unless you think you'll have to pay for it yourself) and Neal comes without any kind of NTC, Lucic has his NMC, so when expansion comes along only one of these players will HAVE to be protected.

The Oilers fleeced the Flame in this deal.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Neal's buyout is significantly better as the cap hit is significantly lower, because the dollars are irrelevant (unless you think you'll have to pay for it yourself) and Neal comes without any kind of NTC, Lucic has his NMC, so when expansion comes along only one of these players will HAVE to be protected.

The Oilers fleeced the Flame in this deal.

Yep. I think if we revisit this thread in a year even Flame fans will acknowledge it was a very poor one.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Yep. I think if we revisit this thread in a year even Flame fans will acknowledge it was a very poor one.

The only "sense" it makes is the Coach in Calgary was Done with Neal and Ownership decided that they don't care about Neal or Lucic, but Lucic will cost them less actual money.

 

[blankall]

Scenario A) Both players suck next year. Oilers win the trade because Neal can be bought out, or demoted.

Scenario B) Neal improves, Lucic doesn't. Oilers win trade by a landslide. (most lopsided trade in years)

Scenario C) Lucic improves, Neal doesn't. Calgary wins but still have to deal with Lucics NMC and can't be protected for Seattle.

Scenario D) Both Lucic and Neal have a year that they're known for. Oilers win the trade because a productive Neal is better than a productive Lucic.

3 out of 4 scenarios...Oilers win the trade. Out of those 4 scenarios, which one is most likely?

How is a productive Neal better than a productive Lucic? Lucic also brings a physical game. He was a key part of that 2011 Stanley Cup team.

If Lucic returns to a 35-40 point player, with his physical game, Calgary has done very well. Neal wasn't contributing anything, and missed so many shots, his play was a detriment to the team.

You also have to look at Neal's contract in Calgary as a sunk cost. Calgary ownership also was not going to buy Neal out, so they get far cheaper player in Lucic, and the Oilers retained some cap.

 

[Soundwave]

How is a productive Neal better than a productive Lucic? Lucic also brings a physical game. He was a key part of that 2011 Stanley Cup team.

If Lucic returns to a 35-40 point player, with his physical game, Calgary has done very well. Neal wasn't contributing anything, and missed so many shots, his play was a detriment to the team.

You also have to look at Neal's contract in Calgary as a sunk cost. Calgary ownership also was not going to buy Neal out, so they get far cheaper player in Lucic, and the Oilers retained some cap.

Lucic's numbers as is are probably inflated which is the sad part.

He had 2 goals and 7 assists total last year without McDavid/Draisaitl/RNH on his line and lots of PP unit 1 time. He had no business being put in those prime positions, but the Oilers were so desperate to try and get him going.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

The only "sense" it makes is the Coach in Calgary was Done with Neal and Ownership decided that they don't care about Neal or Lucic, but Lucic will cost them less actual money.

True. The cash savings may be important for Calgary.
The salary cap implications are brutal though. Lucic’s contract is almost buyout proof. This will almost certainly hurt Calgary in the long run.

I also wonder if this was in part an over reaction to getting bounced out of the playoffs without enough grit on the team.
Just a strange move on their part taking on Lucic’s contract given his sustained poor play for quite a while.

 

[jeffff]

Lets pick Scenario A) Both suck at camp and both are bought out.
Oilers cost) $18,020.833
Flames cost) $18,812.500

Seems like a small win for the Oilers except they paid Lucic $3m in July

Lucic can NOT be bought out

 

[foshizzle]

I’m just trying to look at things from an outside perspective, rather than from a potentially biased point of view. Clearly Lucic is seen as poisonous from the Oiler fanbase at this point in time whether that’s because of his permanent connection to Peter Chiarelli or his contract or his poor play as of late, but he performed up to his expectations for the first 1.5 years, so it wasn’t all bad is what I’m saying.

I’ll even use Troy Brouwer as a comparable between fanbases. I think Flames fans were pretty unfair to Brouwer’s time here as a Flame. Sure he never performed anything close to his contract with his time with the Flames, but he had 1 bad year and another mediocre year. I thought his last season with the Flames was ok though as his role at that point was a 4th liner who managed to produce 20ish points.

To me, I look at Lucic in the same way. Sure they both look like overpaid 4th liners right now, but does that mean that Lucic wasn’t at least effective in his role? I mean you can’t turn chicken **** into chicken salad here. When you play bottom 6 minutes with 4th like centers, you can’t expect 15-20 goals. All I’m saying is that if Lucic can be an effective 12th forward for the Flames, than I’ll take that because Neal wasn’t even that for the Flames.

You aren't looking at it from an outside perspective. You are looking at it through rose-colored flames glasses. You are also ignorantly putting down a very knowledgeable Oilers fan base that has seen Lucic play every damn shift. The fanbase isn't some emotional 15 year old teenager that hates everything Chiarelli touched. Come on man, that is absolutely asinine. He wasn't good for 1.5 years. His playoffs were absolute trash. Completely invisible. Let Kesler and Getzlaf manhandle McDavid and did nothing. A theme we would continue to see. If you think he will be some sort of protector- you are dead wrong. Go ahead, continue to ignore what the Oiler fanbase is telling you, you will see soon enough.

 

[jeffff]

How is a productive Neal better than a productive Lucic? Lucic also brings a physical game. He was a key part of that 2011 Stanley Cup team.

If Lucic returns to a 35-40 point player, with his physical game, Calgary has done very well. Neal wasn't contributing anything, and missed so many shots, his play was a detriment to the team.

You also have to look at Neal's contract in Calgary as a sunk cost. Calgary ownership also was not going to buy Neal out, so they get far cheaper player in Lucic, and the Oilers retained some cap.

FFS ..."key part"....8 YEARS AGO LOL.

You can't honestly tell me that you'd take Lucic over Neal if they both have "productive" years next year. Yeah, if Lucic hits 35-40 pts and is physical, great. But a good year for Neal would be 30 goals.

As you say Neal wasn't contributing anything.....neither was Lucic.

 

[HighLifeMan]

Lucic can NOT be bought out

He can if he agrees to it.

Two years from now and prior to the expansion buying out Lucic really isn't any worse of an option than Neal as years 3 and 4 cover the difference from the first two years. It would only be hugely detrimental to Calgary for one season, and who knows where the cap will be and how Calgary is looking cap wise at that time. In addition to that retaining on Lucic would make him far more valuable to teams trying to reach the cap floor as he is owed significantly less money after his bonus is paid (11.5M vs 6.5M)

Neal's buyout for the Oilers (with the retention included)
year 1 - 2.427M
year 2 - 2.614M
year 3 - 2M
year 4 - 2M

Lucic Buyout for the Flames
year 1 - 3.57M (- 1.1M difference)
year 2 - 4.885M (-2.26M difference)
year 3 - 510,000 (+1.5M difference)
year 4 - 510,000 (+15M difference)

 

[blankall]

FFS ..."key part"....8 YEARS AGO LOL.

You can't honestly tell me that you'd take Lucic over Neal if they both have "productive" years next year. Yeah, if Lucic hits 35-40 pts and is physical, great. But a good year for Neal would be 30 goals.

As you say Neal wasn't contributing anything.....neither was Lucic.

How is either players' performance 8 years ago in any way relevant to now. If Neal becomes a 30 goal and 50 point player again, that would be equivalent to Lucic turning back into a 25 goal and 50 point player. Once again, I take Lucic every time. So your scenario of both players turning back into solid players, although unlikely, favors Calgary, not Edmonton.

 

[blankall]

He can if he agrees to it.

Two years from now and prior to the expansion buying out Lucic really isn't any worse of an option than Neal as years 3 and 4 cover the difference from the first two years. It would only be hugely detrimental to Calgary for one season, and who knows where the cap will be and how Calgary is looking cap wise at that time. In addition to that retaining on Lucic would make him far more valuable to teams trying to reach the cap floor as he is owed significantly less money after his bonus is paid (11.5M vs 6.5M)

Neal's buyout for the Oilers (with the retention included)
year 1 - 2.427M
year 2 - 2.614M
year 3 - 2M
year 4 - 2M

Lucic Buyout for the Flames
year 1 - 3.57M (- 1.1M difference)
year 2 - 4.885M (-2.26M difference)
year 3 - 510,000 (+1.5M difference)
year 4 - 510,000 (+15M difference)

The Flames aren't going to buy out Lucic to save themselves so little cap. The Lucic trade was obviously made because the Flames' ownership had refused a Neal buyout.

 

[Hostile Offer]

I’ll even use Troy Brouwer as a comparable between fanbases. I think Flames fans were pretty unfair to Brouwer’s time here as a Flame. Sure he never performed anything close to his contract with his time with the Flames, but he had 1 bad year and another mediocre year. I thought his last season with the Flames was ok though as his role at that point was a 4th liner who managed to produce 20ish points.

Disregarding the rest of your post, I think mentioning Brouwer might actually hold some relevance when discussing this trade. With Neal failing with the Flames their ownership might've told Treliving he better fix it some other way than buying him out, as they already bought out Brouwer, only to bring in a guy who looks like a prime buyout candidate just a year after being signed in Neal. Buying out Neal wouldn't be a good look for them, you just don't want to be constantly paying someone to NOT play in your team. Now this is just speculating as I'm not really familiar with the Flames business but you know, the Brouwer buyout might've played some role in this whole trade mess.

 

[HighLifeMan]

The Flames aren't going to buy out Lucic to save themselves so little cap. The Lucic trade was obviously made because the Flames' ownership had refused a Neal buyout.

I know that, and I agree - I am just stating that the difference really isn't that much between the two - after two years. Pro's and cons to both buyouts at that time.

 

[jeffff]

How is either players' performance 8 years ago in any way relevant to now.

Are you drunk...its not what so ever. You're that one that posted.

"Lucic also brings a physical game. He was a key part of that 2011 Stanley Cup team"

 

[Johnnybegood13]

Is this some kind of joke? No one cares about actual dollars, its the cap hit.

That is the cap hit actual dollars is $16,500.00

Lucic can NOT be bought out

Ummm yes, yes he can be bought out, it only saves $2.5m but he can be bought out.

Thanks to both of you guys for coming out

 

[Volica]

Scenario A) Both players suck next year. Oilers win the trade because Neal can be bought out, or demoted.

Scenario B) Neal improves, Lucic doesn't. Oilers win trade by a landslide. (most lopsided trade in years)

Scenario C) Lucic improves, Neal doesn't. Calgary wins but still have to deal with Lucics NMC and can't be protected for Seattle.

Scenario D) Both Lucic and Neal have a year that they're known for. Oilers win the trade because a productive Neal is better than a productive Lucic.?

In Scenario A; an unproductive Lucic is definitely better than an unproductive Neal. An unproductive Neal is a goal surrendering machine that makes you want to put your foot through your TV. He should fit right in with the boys in EDM.

 

[blankall]

Lucic's numbers as is are probably inflated which is the sad part.

He had 2 goals and 7 assists total last year without McDavid/Draisaitl/RNH on his line and lots of PP unit 1 time. He had no business being put in those prime positions, but the Oilers were so desperate to try and get him going.

The numbers don't support your assertion. Lucic averaged :53 PP TOI/game, with only 4 points coming on the PP. Lucic was only given 13:14 TOI/game. His numbers, if around 20 points, are actually what you'd expect from a forward getting that little ice time. Did he deserve more....no, not the way he was playing, but his ice time didn't do any favors for him.

Neal, on the other hand, was given 2:12 PP TOI/game and 14:57 total per minute. He had 6 PP points.

Neal's numbers are more reliant on the PP, and he did less with more time on the ice.