GDT: CGY @ COL: A Song of Ice & Fire (9:30 ET / 7:30 MT)

[Foppa2118]

And yes, most of all, they miss Gabe and EJ (let's keep him tomorrow; don't have to play him, just in the locker room).

"Hey Condor, check out this cage for a minute with your buds....."

One week later:

"Nate and Mikko are here for your weekly sessions....."

 

[Metallo]

Screw it, I'm in.

RyJo for EJ, LFG!!!!

I was thinking earlier this week about EJ (50% retained) for Tatar as the cap hits match.

 

[BoxOfChocolates]

EJ’s been bad in Buffalo, we should be glad he walked.

 

[henchman21]

I deal with stats on a daily basis and I get it. I'm not going to claim his stats look pretty. When it comes to goaltending though, public stats specifically, just are not advanced enough to capture what's happening. When his stats are looking this weird that's when you start to look at what's happening in these games. The Avs are allowing chances that don't play into Georgiev's strengths the same way when the Oilers were losing they weren't having breakdowns that favoured how Skinner played. The Avs have a 6' 1" goalie in net, they can't afford to give up time and space to allow shooters to pick their spots. They can't afford to allow passes that take advantage of how aggressive they want Georgiev to play because as fast as Georgiev is he's not big and fast enough to get over to make the saves they're now asking him to make. If you're going to spend 3M on your 1G, you better play to his strengths at least somewhat. They're not and that's why the stats look so funky. Same thing happened in Buffalo with Devon Levi. Buffalo was just allowing opposing teams to have easy access to the most dangerous passes and as a result Levi goes to the AHL. He comes back up and the Sabres have learned how to play better defensively and Levi's numbers look better. This season is really testing the limits of what public data can show us.

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I agree that public stats are so much behind private. The models I’ve seen on the private side blow away anything publicly out there.

I also agree the defense can be a lot better and they are very mistake prone right now.

That said, all the analytics out there suggest the Avs are still in the top 10 of the league in their play. They give up less chances than most teams. They given up less dangerous chances than most teams. They control the play compared to most teams. It may not be dominance, but top 10ish level in most. Along side that, the Avs even with their mistakes, don’t require nearly as much out of their goalie as most teams. We’ve seen it with the goalies over the years.

Just take your graph there (which seems odd that ~half the league is top right). George is bottom right… meaning he’s giving up more goals than expect to be below. Then his xwin looks to be about ~52%. He’s 14-7-1. So basically 14-8 or 64%. Even if you add in the last game as a loss we are still at 61%. Which is a signal to me that the Avs are carrying him… not the other way around.

 

[Ceremony]

I agree that public stats are so much behind private. The models I’ve seen on the private side blow away anything publicly out there.

I don't know how much you know about this so I'm not asking you personally, more wondering aloud, but I see this a lot on HF. I know teams do their own analytics and have their own processes, but how much data can they actually process and turn into something quantifiable that says "this guy is good" or "this guy is not as good as he seems"? How is it different from the stuff that's publicly available?

 

[Murzu]

Still think Rantanen should have kept this public but as long as things between he and Lehky are fine, it's not a big deal.


I'm a little skeptical that things are  actually fine but we'll see maybe?

I'm 100% sure they're 100% fine. They are buddies that have known each other since childhood.

 

[henchman21]

I don't know how much you know about this so I'm not asking you personally, more wondering aloud, but I see this a lot on HF. I know teams do their own analytics and have their own processes, but how much data can they actually process and turn into something quantifiable that says "this guy is good" or "this guy is not as good as he seems"? How is it different from the stuff that's publicly available?

Yeah they have quite a bit of extra stuff. The edge data that just became public this year has been available for years on the private side... and teams have models based on that data. There is one team that I know has a quirk in their offensive system. They keenly target players that get to a specific area and feed to a specific area with a lot of success (and it isn't a typical high danger/slot target)... and it can't be a static. It is their belief that this is an overlooked weakness in today's defensive systems. So they look for a very specific items in some players. This team grabbed two guys 2022 offseason up front that did what they wanted with a high success rate, and three guys this past offseason... which has drastically improved the team. They've basically remade their top 9 off their model with UFAs and a single trade to respectability.

The main differences are the extreme nuance that teams go into and the higher accuracy of the data.

 

[dahrougem2]

Yeah they have quite a bit of extra stuff. The edge data that just became public this year has been available for years on the private side... and teams have models based on that data. There is one team that I know has a quirk in their offensive system. They keenly target players that get to a specific area and feed to a specific area with a lot of success (and it isn't a typical high danger/slot target)... and it can't be a static. It is their belief that this is an overlooked weakness in today's defensive systems. So they look for a very specific items in some players. This team grabbed two guys 2022 offseason up front that did what they wanted with a high success rate, and three guys this past offseason... which has drastically improved the team. They've basically remade their top 9 off their model with UFAs and a single trade to respectability.

The main differences are the extreme nuance that teams go into and the higher accuracy of the data.

F*** the Red Wings

 

[AllAboutAvs]

F*** the Red Wings

Yeah that's the first team that came to mind when I read that.

 

[Pokecheque]

I've defended Georgiev in the past week and a half, but yesterday was inexcusable. He needs a mental reset and that comes with him sitting for the next three or so games. Not as a punishment, but just to take a break.

The question will be how he handles that if it happens.

 

[Gigantor The Goalie]

I agree that public stats are so much behind private. The models I’ve seen on the private side blow away anything publicly out there.

I also agree the defense can be a lot better and they are very mistake prone right now.

That said, all the analytics out there suggest the Avs are still in the top 10 of the league in their play. They give up less chances than most teams. They given up less dangerous chances than most teams. They control the play compared to most teams. It may not be dominance, but top 10ish level in most. Along side that, the Avs even with their mistakes, don’t require nearly as much out of their goalie as most teams. We’ve seen it with the goalies over the years.

Just take your graph there (which seems odd that ~half the league is top right). George is bottom right… meaning he’s giving up more goals than expect to be below. Then his xwin looks to be about ~52%. He’s 14-7-1. So basically 14-8 or 64%. Even if you add in the last game as a loss we are still at 61%. Which is a signal to me that the Avs are carrying him… not the other way around.

I listened to the PDOcast with Kevin Woodley and I know the Avs look good metric wise even in the private numbers as he was quoting from Clear Sight Analytics. I understand what all the numbers are saying which is why I've repeatedly gone back to rewatch goals and games to see just what's happening. What I'm seeing is the type of breakdowns the Avs are having are just too dangerous and just don't work with how Georgiev plays as well with how the ask Georgiev to play. I love numbers and analytics. I've done tracking for teams, I've done tracking for myself, I have a whole Tableau page and too many spreadsheets to keep track of. When a goalie is putting up bad numbers that's just an indication to me further investigation is required to see exactly what's going wrong.

On the PDOcast Woodley mentioned how after the coaching change the Oilers went from 30th in xGA on rush chances to 3rd and all of a sudden Skinner's numbers are rebounding and the Oilers are winning games without worrying about goaltending. Sometimes there's just a disconnect in the team and the goalie which is dangerous in today's game. Something Woodley also mentioned that I agree with is teams like Carolina and the Avs tend to take away the easy shots, the stat padding shots, leaving their goalies with a higher percentage of more difficult shots. Something I've noticed is the higher the xGA/60 of a goalie typically the higher their GSAx is.

It's odd because I haven't changed the reference lines to keep up with something that's been happening this season and last in that the xGA/60 of goalies is starting to rise. From 07/08 it was rare for a goalie to see a ~3.2 xGA/60 through the season. There are now +14 goalies with an above 3.2 xGA/60 who have started +10 games. There's some weirdness starting to happen and I'm not sure if it's effecting private models too. I'm not saying Georgiev is carrying the team, just that the team is requiring saves of him that he's generally not going to make. This is the path they decided to go down when they decided drafting and developing goalies is for idiots. If the Avs can't consistently even somewhat play to his strengths this whole "don't pay for goalies" idea really starts to show it's cracks. From what I'm seeing when the Avs and Georgiev are in sync, it's a guaranteed win. The Avs are essentially winning every time Georgiev statistically gives them a GSAx performance that bodes well in terms of chance to win the game and a few times when he's giving them a coin flip chance. He's not dragging the team down, there's a disconnect that is preventing the Avs from winning more games and Georgiev having better numbers.