Central Division Race [MOD WARNING; POST #697]

[TaLoN]

At the All Star break, the Wild were 16 points behind Chicago and 14 points behind the Jets. After tonight the Wild are 1 point behind Chicago and 3 points ahead of the Jets...

Incredible!

 

[Byefooglien]

Not gonna lie.


Kiiiiinda hoping STL wins the division and gets Winnipeg in the first round. Don't care who wins, those teams would annihilate each other. It would look like an on-site military infirmary in the winner's locker-room.

As a Jets fan, I could care less who we play so long as we make the dance.

I'd take our chances with the Ducks over the Blues though, any day. Anaheim's defense would be in tough against our forechecking all series long.

 

[2 Minute Minor]

Not sure why would that be. Guess I don't see any reason to believe what you wrote there to be true. I'll give you the Blues have had the Wild's # in the past, but how's that been relevant since the AS break? I'll also give you they stole one the game before last against the Blues, but the current roll, the depth, confidence, etc. I don't see much that would indicate a lopsided matchup (size perhaps) or make the Wild underdogs in a possible series. I think the days of the Wild playing scared against the Blues or being outmatched by them are over.

I'll take a crack at this. (Minnesota posters here seem pretty touchy lately.)

If the Blues can't beat Minnesota to get out of the first round, it will show that's the Blues haven't really taken a step forward. It's very little to do with Minnesota, and more to do with whether St Louis is truly progressing as a contender.

 

[Got One Cup]

This has to be the craziest playoff race in awhile, cental is so loaded right now. There is no easy 1st rd here. Can we just start the 1st round now cause I'm going to be glued to the tv to see who comes out of the West. They will probably limp into the SC and the East will take the cup lol.

 

[hisgirlfriday]

This has to be the craziest playoff race in awhile, cental is so loaded right now. There is no easy 1st rd here. Can we just start the 1st round now cause I'm going to be glued to the tv to see who comes out of the West. They will probably limp into the SC and the East will take the cup lol.

The funny thing is that the schedule is set up so the Pacific contenders for the 2nd and 3rd spots have to run through the Central gauntlet to try to qualify for the playoffs.

Calgary just played Minnesota and has road games at Nashville, St. Louis and Winnipeg.
Vancouver has road games at St. Louis, Nashville, Chicago and Winnipeg.
LA has road games at Minnesota and Chicago.

 

[10coach*]

I'll take a crack at this. (Minnesota posters here seem pretty touchy lately.)

If the Blues can't beat Minnesota to get out of the first round, it will show that's the Blues haven't really taken a step forward. It's very little to do with Minnesota, and more to do with whether St Louis is truly progressing as a contender.

Hehe

 

[Drewcifer]

I don't even know who is the front runner to come out of the west this year. You can make a compelling case for five or six teams and the others are no slouches either.

 

[BlueDream]

Yes, it will say the same thing it says about any other team losing a series: they're not as good as the team they were beat by.

No, it would say the Blues choked against a worse team and major changes should be made to their roster.

Not sure why would that be. Guess I don't see any reason to believe what you wrote there to be true. I'll give you the Blues have had the Wild's # in the past, but how's that been relevant since the AS break? I'll also give you they stole one the game before last against the Blues, but the current roll, the depth, confidence, etc. I don't see much that would indicate a lopsided matchup (size perhaps) or make the Wild underdogs in a possible series. I think the days of the Wild playing scared against the Blues or being outmatched by them are over.

Because the Blues are a better team, I don't really care about your record since the All-Star break.

 

[Spurgeon]

No, it would say the Blues choked against a worse team and major changes should be made to their roster.


Because the Blues are a better team, I don't really care about your record since the All-Star break.

You should. That record consists of 2 wins against your team.

 

[nicholas89alex]

Dubynyk playing out of his mind has added 6-8 points to the wilds points totals by my calculations. my process was to compare dubynks numbers from this season to his career average of .914 giving me a 22 goal increase if dubynk plays at his career average
(903 shots * .914 Sv% = 78 goals allowed compared to the 56 he has actually allowed)
conveniently the wild have played 33 games so assuming an even spread, that is 1 additional goal allowed 2 out of every 3 games. also conveniently the wild have had 1 goal games in almost half of their games since trading for dubynk (17 out of 33).

still assuming that goals are spread evenly half of the additional 22 goals would be allowed in 1 goal games, the other half in goals decided by more than 1 goal. this means 11 of the 17 1 goal games would have an additinal goal allowed for the wild.

in theses 1 goal games the wild took wins from 10 and points from 12, with a 10-5-0-2 record. 4 of their wins went to overtime.

still assuming equal spread of goals 3 of the 11 additional goals goals would have been allowed in games which they lost in regulation having no bearing on their point total. the other 8 would have been allowed in games which they gained points in potentially effecting point totals.
(12/17 = .705 this is the percent of games they got points in)
(.705 * 11 +7.76 round up to 8 this is the percent of games they got points in times the additional number of goals allowed, showing how many games they got points that they would have allowed an additional goal)

2/3rds of their one goal games that they got points in would have had different results

of the 6 the won in regulation 2/3rds (or 4) would have gone to OT had they allowed the extra goal (this could result in a 0-4 point difference, depending on how OT plays out. I gave them 2 OT wins and 2 OT loses since OT is 50/50 IMO) -2 points
of the 4 that they won in OT 3 would have been lost (4 * .6667 = 2.67 round up to 3) -3 points
of the 2 OTL one would not have made it to OT -1 point


Since this is a hypothetical situations i had to make assumptions. if you want to fault my calculations etc that's fine but I'm sticking to those assumptions so no point to argue them. i used Dubynks career Sv% because bad defenses dont always result in bad Sv% 3 goals on 30 shots is the same % as 2 goals on 20 shots. if you insist Dubs is beter than his career average i did the same calculations with dubs Sv% at a boosted .918. it results in 4 to 5 gained points.

In conclusion the wild would do well with league average goaltending. they would be tied with Calgary for the 8th play off spot however not fighting for the #3 spot in the central. So please stop saying Dubnyk only needed to be average for you guys to have won all these games.

 

[BlueDream]

You should. That record consists of 2 wins against your team.

The Wild's greatest accomplishment to date.

 

[Sharppi]

The Wild's greatest accomplishment to date.

I absolutely love the trash talk in this thread, can't wait for the playoffs to start and see the perennial playoff chokers, the Blues, do what they do best. Choke.

 

[Note Worthy]

I absolutely love the trash talk in this thread, can't wait for the playoffs to start and see the perennial playoff chokers, the Blues, do what they do best. Choke.

Definitely.

The Wild have done amazing in the playoffs up to this point.

 

[BagHead]

No, it would say the Blues choked against a worse team and major changes should be made to their roster.

Wh-... are you serious? Hold on, so what stops you from saying the that the Blues have choked every year against inferior teams? Those Blackhawks? Terrible team made up of only 5 good players! Blues totally choked against them. The Kings? Ah, Blues choked again. Heck let's go back further, to the Canucks. Those guys couldn't complete the Stanley Cup, even. Terrible team, the Blues choked.

Nevermind that these teams were all cup contenders. Sometimes teams get unlucky (that's what I think you guys have mostly been...heck, I picked the Blues to win the cup two of those 4 times mentioned) and sometimes your team just isn't good enough (a very small mix of this, but it's there). Your team did not choke. Backes did not have his balls shrivel up into his body and say "oh no, what's going to happen to us!?" I've watched your team in the playoffs, and they played very well, but just couldn't find the winning goal sometimes.

And yes, I feel the Wild have never been good enough to make even the WC finals. Got lucky (and hot) the one time we did.

 

[BlueDream]

Wh-... are you serious? Hold on, so what stops you from saying the that the Blues have choked every year against inferior teams? Those Blackhawks? Terrible team made up of only 5 good players! Blues totally choked against them. The Kings? Ah, Blues choked again. Heck let's go back further, to the Canucks. Those guys couldn't complete the Stanley Cup, even. Terrible team, the Blues choked.

Nevermind that these teams were all cup contenders. Sometimes teams get unlucky (that's what I think you guys have mostly been...heck, I picked the Blues to win the cup two of those 4 times mentioned) and sometimes your team just isn't good enough (a very small mix of this, but it's there). Your team did not choke. I've watched your team in the playoffs, and they played very well, but just couldn't find the winning goal sometimes.

And yes, I feel the Wild have never been good enough to make even the WC finals. Got lucky (and hot) the one time we did.

I agree with all of that so I don't even understand what you're arguing here. I'm saying it would be a choke if the Blues lost against the Wild. Wasn't talking about any of those other series.

I absolutely love the trash talk in this thread, can't wait for the playoffs to start and see the perennial playoff chokers, the Blues, do what they do best. Choke.

I'm not even acting like the Blues have a great playoff history. I'm just arguing the fact that a lot of the Wild fans in this thread revolve their whole argument about the Wild's record since the All Star break, as if that really matters. As a Blues fan, I speak from experience in saying that stuff really doesn't matter... I'm actually offering you guys some advice to keep some level heads going into the playoffs, since my team has been in the same position before.

But yeah, go ahead and brag about the Wild's two victories over the Blues. It means a lot...

 

[BagHead]

I agree with all of that so I don't even understand what you're arguing here. I'm saying it would be a choke if the Blues lost against the Wild. Wasn't talking about any of those other series.

Ah, well then my mistake. Though I still don't see how it's a choke just this once, if that were to happen.

In case I'm not being clear. How is it different losing to one team than another? A loss is a loss, after all.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Approaching 1000 posts.

Part II is up.

Closed.