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Ceci vs Zaitsev

Ceci vs Zaitsev

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ESH

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Jun 19, 2011
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Kshahdoo said:
"PDO, called SPSV% by the NHL,[4] is the sum of a team's shooting percentage and its save percentage.[7] PDO is usually measured at even strength, and based on the theory that most teams will ultimately regress toward a sum of 100, is often viewed as a proxy for how lucky a team is. According to Wilson, a player or team with a PDO over 102 is "probably not as good as they seem", while a player or team below 98 likely is better than they appear"

Analytics (ice hockey) - Wikipedia
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PDO is just adding the player’s on-ice shooting% with their on-ice Sv%. So I guess that affects their GF%, but that’s about it. GF% is basically a glorified +/- anyways
 

Kshahdoo

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Mar 23, 2008
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ESH said:
PDO is just adding the player’s on-ice shooting% with their on-ice Sv%. So I guess that affects their GF%, but that’s about it. GF% is basically a glorified +/- anyways
Click to expand...

And what is Corsi? It does use the same method, as +/-, projecting team stats on personal ones. But while +/- means actual goals for/against, Corsi means shots, which are... well, just shots.

Ottawa, despite being the worst team in the entire league, doesn't look that helpless defensive wise. Its average GA is almost as good as Toronto's and even better, than Columbus' (which defense is considered elite), it's scoring, where the Senators are on the AHL level...

Zaitsev, as Ottawa's best defensive player, who plays 24+ min/game, should get a lot of credits for the team's relatively decent defense.
 

wetcoast

Registered User
Nov 20, 2018
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NyQuil said:
One is playing on a NHL team and the other is playing on an AHL team.

That’s all you need to know when it comes to advanced stats.

Thankfully Zaitsev won’t get exposed in the playoffs while Ceci certainly will.
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When will Ottawa fans actually wake up and realize they have had an NHL team again for close to 30 years now?

No doubt the AHL misnomer tag will be the excuse when Lafrenièreor Byfield don't turn the Sens into SC contenders in their first season.
 
Sidney the Kidney

Sidney the Kidney

One last time
Jun 29, 2009
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CantLoseWithMatthews said:
Ceci. Both suck, but Zaitsev sucks more and for longer. 5v5 numbers
Ceci: 12 games | 4 points | 52 cf% (-3.2 rel) | 66.7 gf% (+23.8 rel) | 53 xgf% (+3.6 rel) | 30 QoC
Zaitsev: 10 games | 1 point | 41 cf% (-9.5 rel) | 33 gf% (-12.8 rel) | 40.9 xgf% (-10.4 rel) | 29.3 QoC
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It's almost as though they play on teams with vastly different levels of talent surrounding them or something ...
 
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c3z4r

c3z4r

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Jul 4, 2011
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ottawah said:
Toronto fans by and large seem to be comfortable with Ceci and even willing to sign him longer term, at current price. They hated Zaitsev at that price.

Zaitsev, despite getting better deployment on the Ottawa team than Ceci did last year is largely lower across for the board for all stats including advanced stats. Ceci takes the crap minutes Zaitsev got last year on toronto, and is an improvement across the board on all stats.


There is a large Ceci hate on that really does not jive with what he produces.
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Leafs fan want Ceci at 4.5M for a couple more years??
 

Michel Beauchamp

Canadiens' fan since 1958
Mar 17, 2008
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Fear said:
It was inevitable since Ottawa already offered him his qualifying offer. His floor salary was 4.3 and who knows what arbitration could have brought
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The Leafs could have walked away from the arbitration award if it had been higher than $4,397,832.
 
Sidney the Kidney

Sidney the Kidney

One last time
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CantLoseWithMatthews said:
I can understand not using raw numbers because of the small difference in team quality, but what's wrong with relative numbers?
Click to expand...

Because they don't really tell you much over a small sample size? Not unless you also believe Marcus Pettersson (Pens) is better than Morgan Rielly?

RelCF%
Pettersson -3.3
Rielly -5.97

RelxGF%
Pettersson 0.47
Rielly -0.89

RelGF%
Pettersson 7.21
Rielly 5.01

Superior to Rielly in every category you listed for Ceci/Zaitsev.
 
CantLoseWithMatthews

CantLoseWithMatthews

Registered User
Sep 28, 2015
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Sidney the Kidney said:
Because they don't really tell you much over a small sample size? Not unless you also believe Marcus Pettersson (Pens) is better than Morgan Rielly?

RelCF%
Pettersson -3.3
Rielly -5.97

RelxGF%
Pettersson 0.47
Rielly -0.89

RelGF%
Pettersson 7.21
Rielly 5.01

Superior to Rielly in every category you listed for Ceci/Zaitsev.
Click to expand...
well, there are a few things with this. When Rielly (and Ceci) are on the ice, they're facing top competition. The rest of the Leafs are facing easier opposition, so that definitely skews relative numbers. Pettersson faces easier competition, so it's more of a challenge for his team when he's not on the ice. Also, Rielly isn't very good this year. But for the sake of fairness, I guess you could compare Ceci now to Zaitsev on the Leafs, and Zaitsev now to Ceci on Ottawa last year.

18/19
Ceci: 73 games | 21 points | 44 cf% (-1.88 rel) | 41.7 gf% (-2.19 rel) | 46 xgf% (-0.84 rel) | 29.12 QoC
Zaitsev: 81 games | 12 points | 49.9 cf% (-2.8 rel) | 48 gf% (-8.9 rel) | 51.2 xgf% (-0.9 rel) | 29.16 QoC

19/20
Ceci: 12 games | 4 points | 52 cf% (-3.2 rel) | 66.7 gf% (+23.8 rel) | 53 xgf% (+3.6 rel) | 30 QoC
Zaitsev: 10 games | 1 point | 41 cf% (-9.5 rel) | 33 gf% (-12.8 rel) | 40.9 xgf% (-10.4 rel) | 29.3 QoC

So to me, Ceci was better on Ottawa last year than Zaitsev is this year. Also, he's better with the Leafs than Zaitsev was. What are your thoughts?
 

ESH

Registered User
Jun 19, 2011
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Kshahdoo said:
And what is Corsi? It does use the same method, as +/-, projecting team stats on personal ones. But while +/- means actual goals for/against, Corsi means shots, which are... well, just shots.

Ottawa, despite being the worst team in the entire league, doesn't look that helpless defensive wise. Its average GA is almost as good as Toronto's and even better, than Columbus' (which defense is considered elite), it's scoring, where the Senators are on the AHL level...

Zaitsev, as Ottawa's best defensive player, who plays 24+ min/game, should get a lot of credits for the team's relatively decent defense.
Click to expand...

Corsi is not affected by PDO whatsoever
 
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Boud

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Dec 27, 2011
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ottawah said:
Toronto fans by and large seem to be comfortable with Ceci and even willing to sign him longer term, at current price. They hated Zaitsev at that price.

Zaitsev, despite getting better deployment on the Ottawa team than Ceci did last year is largely lower across for the board for all stats including advanced stats. Ceci takes the crap minutes Zaitsev got last year on toronto, and is an improvement across the board on all stats.


There is a large Ceci hate on that really does not jive with what he produces.
Click to expand...

Buddy, it's universally known that Ceci is absolutely terrible. It's no conspiracy theory, it's just reality.

I certainly hope they extend him at 4.5M so we can look at this defensive circus for many years to come.
 
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Just Linda

Just Linda

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Feb 24, 2018
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NyQuil said:
One is playing on a NHL team and the other is playing on an AHL team.

That’s all you need to know when it comes to advanced stats.

Thankfully Zaitsev won’t get exposed in the playoffs while Ceci certainly will.
Click to expand...

Not if the Leafs keep this pace up :sarcasm:
 
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