Confirmed with Link: CBJ sign Erik Gudbranson (D) 4 years 4 million AAV

[Cowumbus]

 

[MoeBartoli]

Erik Gudbranson is on a historical pace - a historically bad one.

*All stats are Dmen at 5v5, per Natural Stat Trick
*took the 3-4 "worst" players in terms of shot share and expected goals %
*included what I think is the "worst" season of the analytics era (stats start in '07-'08) and that's Josh Gorges of the actively-tanking '14-'15 Sabres

Weird covid-shortened seasons, but generally 500 min TOI is the cut-off I used (had to lower it for the 2020 seasons). I noted when a player did not reach 60 games played as well.

In general, the worst Dmen hit ~40% in shot share and expected goals % over a full season, plus or minus a percent or so.

Erik Gudbranson isn't anywhere close. I could not find any Dman in the analytics era to be on the ice for as many shot attempts against (CA/60) and unblocked shot attempts against (FA/60) per 60 minutes of 5v5 ice time as Gudbranson is this season. His xG% is the 2nd-worst of any Dman I could find - behind only Troy Stretcher of this season. His shot share % (CF%) is on pace to be the worst of any season for any Dman since 2007, save for Josh Gorges in '14-'15.

I get that some people think analytics are overrated or whatever, but Gudbranson is on pace to set historic marks and put up possibly the worst defensive season of at least the last 15 years.

Sometimes analytics don’t match up with the eye test. Sadly these do.

 

[ColumbusTrill]

Not sure of the accuracy of that model if it has Elvis a positive

 

[Cowumbus]

Not sure of the accuracy of that model if it has Elvis a positive

I have a few questions about this model. It’s Dom’s from the Athletic, so…

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Do we really need to continually dunk on the guy? We get it. He’s not good. There’s nothing we can do about it. I don’t think anyone is really saying anything otherwise

 

[koteka]

All part of a thought experiment to see what happens when you pair a poor scheme with a bad player.

There is a scheme?

 

[JacketFanInFL]

Do we really need to continually dunk on the guy? We get it. He’s not good. There’s nothing we can do about it. I don’t think anyone is really saying anything otherwise

He's actually had quite a few good games. The problem is that he's boat-anchored by a bad partner like Peeke while nearly always matching up against the best opposing line.

He's in a no-win position and people that look at stats or tweets and not the games are going to complain the most.

 

[CBJx614]

He's actually had quite a few good games. The problem is that he's boat-anchored by a bad partner like Peeke while nearly always matching up against the best opposing line.

He's in a no-win position and people that look at stats or tweets and not the games are going to complain the most.

I don't think it's so much who he's playing with, as much as how much he's playing.. he should be getting 3rd pairing/role minutes. Instead he's been thrust into the top 4 and playing way over his head.

 

[makethesave]

He's actually had quite a few good games. The problem is that he's boat-anchored by a bad partner like Peeke while nearly always matching up against the best opposing line.

He's in a no-win position and people that look at stats or tweets and not the games are going to complain the most.

What are you talking about ? He's never partnered with Peeke...both RHD's on different pairings.

 

[Farmboy Patty]

I think that Gud has a place in the bottom 6. His minutes should be limited accordingly, and his partner, whoever it may be, should make up for his deficiencies. He’s not a turd, he’s a role player.

I’d like to add that it would be sweet to have guy like Bob Probert around, but they don’t grow on trees…

 

[DarkandStormy]

He's actually had quite a few good games. The problem is that he's boat-anchored by a bad partner like Peeke while nearly always matching up against the best opposing line.

He's in a no-win position and people that look at stats or tweets and not the games are going to complain the most.

He's played 22 of his 324 minutes with Andrew Peeke.
He's played 65 minutes with Jake Christansen (who's been up the last five games).
He's played 120 minutes with Bean.
He's played 45 minutes with Gavrikov.

Since coming back from Finland, he's played almost exclusively with Jake Christansen, like 6.5x as many minutes as with Peeke.

So, it's quite comical reading your "actually watch the games" comment.

 

[koteka]

Some dude that kind of looks like Doug Henning hit Christiansen. Gudbranson suggested that he not do that again.

Michael Pezzetta vs. Erik Gudbranson, November 23, 2022 - Montreal Canadiens vs. Columbus Blue Jackets

Michael Pezzetta vs. Erik Gudbranson, November 23, 2022 - Montreal Canadiens vs. Columbus Blue Jackets

www.hockeyfights.com

 

[Johansen2Foligno]

I think that Gud has a place in the bottom 6. His minutes should be limited accordingly, and his partner, whoever it may be, should make up for his deficiencies. He’s not a turd, he’s a role player.

I’d like to add that it would be sweet to have guy like Bob Probert around, but they don’t grow on trees…

Unfortunately, it's only fitting that we refer to our defense as the a 'bottom six'.

 

[deca guard]

if cbj were to move e.g. contract what round draft pick would it cost them ?

 

[majormajor]

if cbj were to move e.g. contract what round draft pick would it cost them ?

1st rounder at this point.

 

[DarkandStormy]

 

[CBJx614]

Is anyone surprised given his success was very dependent on him being a role player and we've had to lean extremely heavy on him outside of his role.

Its no different than if we made Kuraly our 1C. It's not his role so we shouldn't expect him to be a PPG player. Gudbranson is a physical presence on the ice, not a top 4 defenseman you feed minutes to.

 

[majormajor]

Is anyone surprised given his success was very dependent on him being a role player and we've had to lean extremely heavy on him outside of his role.

I'm sorry, what success?

Being an okayish bottom pair D for one year in Calgary?

Its no different than if we made Kuraly our 1C. It's not his role so we shouldn't expect him to be a PPG player. Gudbranson is a physical presence on the ice, not a top 4 defenseman you feed minutes to.

Forget top 4, it would be a huge step up from his current play if Gudbranson could play as well as a regular bottom pair caliber D.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

if cbj were to move e.g. contract what round draft pick would it cost them ?

why would they move the contract now?

if they keep him one more year and then buy him out the math is pretty favorable. if they wait until his last year, it's only $1.16m of dead cap for one year.

that's all a moot point, though, because…

my new take on public-sphere analytics is that they've essentially found a more complicated way to find the same result as +/-, a stat which they all lampoon.

these charts/metrics miss the same broad-strokes context that +/- lacks:
1. team quality and systems
2. deployment (beyond TOI)
3. goaltending (not as direct as +/-, but in the sense that teams with bad goalies tend to go down early and spend the rest of the game chasing)

the only relevant piece of context here is last year's chart showing that gudbranson's numbers were far better last year. thinking of the three points above… well, he was playing on an elite team in a smaller role and his team was more often than not playing with the lead.

was he a better player last year, or was he the same player in a situation where he was set up to be effective? it's clearly the latter.

that's not to say that his on-ice contributions are worth $4m (they're not), but instead that he is a player who can provide value under the right circumstances, and that those circumstances (good team, small role, playing with a lead) aren't in place here.

in the meantime, he's stuck in a role where he's playing too much due to injuries

in an ideal world, he is what he was in calgary: a third pairing guy who brings physicality and goes out there to play hard minutes so that the more skilled defensemen higher in the lineup can have more favorable deployment.

at the risk of sounding like a dinosaur, until the circumstances are in place for that to actually be his on-ice role, his value will come from being the old guy showing a young team how to be a 'good pro', taking tough minutes away from boqvist/etc. (helping maximizing their output) and being a physical deterrent for anyone who wants to take a run at KJ/etc.

 

[CBJx614]

I'm sorry, what success?

Being an okayish bottom pair D for one year in Calgary?

Poor wording. Him being successful was dependant on him playing in his role (shutdown role, low minutes and usage)

 

[MoeBartoli]

Gud’s contract pissed away the money that could have been much better used here. Granted this scorecard doesn’t include this year but even my inner city public school education tells me a 92% WAR is better than a 0% WAR. Olivier provides the fighting undercard for a much more reasonable appearance fee……Yes, as you can tell I still hold a grudge.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Has he actually been a physical presence?

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Has he actually been a physical presence?

…yes? lol.

that doesn't mean going out headhunting or hitting guys every time the puck comes near him. he's been plenty physical.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

…yes? lol.

that doesn't mean going out headhunting or hitting guys every time the puck comes near him. he's been plenty physical.

I honestly haven’t noticed him any more or less engaged physics than anyone else. I wondered though if that was just specific to me, that maybe others have seen it and he’s fine.

 

[ViD]

View attachment 637844

Gud’s contract pissed away the money that could have been much better used here. Granted this scorecard doesn’t include this year but even my inner city public school education tells me a 92% WAR is better than a 0% WAR. Olivier provides the fighting undercard for a much more reasonable appearance fee……Yes, as you can tell I still hold a grudge.

I wonder what Sprong card looks like, must be through the roof