CBJ gets to 93/94 points and gets IN!

[Forepar]

Much discussion this afternoone in GDT for Dallas game about likelihood of getting into playoffs, statistical sites that assign probability percentages, and our own Board Base arriving at the typical number of points needed to get in (93/94 points). Two months early, and 5+5 play needs to improve, but wth, the results the past 5 weeks (25 out of 30 possible points) merit start of march to the playoffs.

Click to read more...

 

[Forepar]

Per Mayor Bee commenting on SprtsClubStats assigning 3.3% probability of CBJ getting in:

Goal differential is an important component; I use it myself for tracking potential regression to average. As of today, Columbus is at a -21, Philly -13, and Ottawa -4.

None of us knows the emphasis that goal differential has in the millions of simulations that that website uses, but it's definitely a component.

Forepar: Agree MB. If you switch the SportsClub's assumption to 50/50 shot of winning games (meaning the computer program figuratively flips a coin for each game, the CBJ's odds of making playoffs are 23% as of today, as opposed to 3% using the weighted assumption. The "weighted" assumption still is an algorithim of millions of "coinflips" as the 50/50 method, but the coin is weighted differently than 50/50, using 3 major factors as I understand it: 1) "goal delta" (meaning goal differential); 2), the relative records of the opponents; and 3) a 4% boost for the home team likely winning (supposedly the NHL league-wide average). The site also builds in that for hockey, each game is given a 22% chance of going into OT (based on 22 percent of games going into OT in 2007-2008).

The site's creator admits that the site does not factor in any trends, trades or injuries (past or current). For example, his notes state that if a team was starting to rebound after a bout of injuries (e.g. CBJ), then a user/fan would be wise to estimate "X extra points in the second half of the season, and looking at what that number of points then shows" as the % likelihood of getting in.
In other words if we don't think CBJ is a .500 team the rest of the year (and not a -21 goal differential team), then we can project what we think the record will be based on trends.

For example, if CBJ finish remainder of season at 24-14-6 (93 points), the site projects a 29% likelihood of making the playoffs. 24-14-6 is not unreasonable based on recent results - though current 12-2-1 pace is not sustainable for entire season. I would think 29% chance of getting in would actually be more like 35%, because this method doesn't take into account that some of the teams battling with CBJ for those last spots will get less points than projected if CBJ gets 93 points, because CBJ will have won some head-to-head games against those competing teams that are currently projected to beat CBJ more often than not in the algorithm formula (e.g. Wash, Tor, NYR, Bos, etc.). I note that the likelihood of getting in jumps to mid 40% if CBJ gets just one more point (94 instead of 93). The 7 and 8 spots will be that tight - they almost always are.

In other words, the site is almost pure math/statistics, with very few other variables. But its a starting point...and it creates fun/angst among all us hockey fans.

 

[Forepar]

EspenK chimed in:

Bottom line is we need to get to 93 points or thereabouts for the last wild card. Forget the odds. Can we finish 24-14-6 while some other team(s) folds? That doesn't seem undoable but it will be tough. I just hope we don't come up a point or two short. Unless we then win the lottery which would bring us back to my pre-season thread.

Nordique responded:

93 pts seems about right. We can finish 24-14-6 as you say, and if we win key games, vs the other bubble teams, the playoffs are very attainable. And if we can't beat the other bubble teams (TOR, BOS, FLA, OTT, NYR, WSH), then we have no business expecting a post season. We have exactly 10 games vs the those teams left on the schedule....



I think we make it...and this team, as scrabbly as it has been, just needs to get in.
They may win a series, 2, 3 or even a Cup. Or get swept in the first round, nothing would surprise me. But if CBJ gets in, they will be one of the hottest teams going at that point (they will have to be to get there). And Bob is one year better at composure...he was ok vs. PIT last year. He will steal 2 games per series this year.

I've been conservative for long time - but last night's crazy, almost frenzied game which still came up cherries for CBJ in Dal barn last night, has me optimistic and craving more playoff games at NWA today.

 

[blahblah]

That site did a good job of predicting Toronto's collapse.

We have a long way to go 5 on 5 before I feel that we're in position to make a real run. Hopefully Bob is consistent, that is a concern as well. We're hurting on the regulation win side as well as goal differential. We haven't make a huge dent in goal differential despite the big streak. We're playing a lot of close games; doesn't take much to be on the other side of those scores.

 

[Cash for Nash]

That site did a good job of predicting Toronto's collapse.

We have a long way to go 5 on 5 before I feel that we're in position to make a real run. Hopefully Bob is consistent, that is a concern as well. We're hurting on the regulation win side as well as goal differential. We haven't make a huge dent in goal differential despite the big streak. We're playing a lot of close games; doesn't take much to be on the other side of those scores.

You are right on the money with 5 on 5 play being a predictor of success.

But....

How much better will the 5 on 5 play be with JENNER/ANISIMOV/MURRAY and possilby a stud deadline acquisition up front?

It would make a big difference imo. Injuries have been a big factor to me.

 

[EspenK]

It's going to be tough.

As the 5v5 gets better (how I'm not sure how because most of our goals there are purely opportunistic in my mind. More 5v5 like Joey and Letestu last night and I will feel better) there is a good chance the power play regresses.

A positive is that I see our checking game getting better in the neutral and defensive end of the ice. #1 key to our success imo is good solid D and Bob playing near Vezina like.

***************************************************

To further forepar's effort to consolidate this discussion here is what i posted in another thread a few days ago:

I don't think we catch any of those teams (referring to Rangers/Isles/Caps) barring a major injury to key player(s). I think our best bet for a playoff berth is to catch one of Boston, Toronto or Florida for the last wild card.

Our current pace is a ppg.
Boston's is 1.1
Toronto 1.125
Florida 1.1622
Washington 1.24
Rangers 1.28

to reach 93 points which should get the last w/c spot here's what is needed per game

Jackets 1.24
Boston 1.17
Toronto 1.14
Florida 1.08
Washington 1.05
Rangers 1.02

Put another way we have to play 5% or so better than Boston or roughly 20% better than Washington an NY.

I think it is likely Boston gets better with Krejci and Chara back in the line-up ad Rask in goal even though he hasn't been so good this year.

Best bets are Toronto or Florida tanking a bit but even then we'd have to play about 20% better than we have been to make it.

Tough road.

 

[major major]

Okay, so sportsclubstats doesn't actually make informed predictions. Now if we can only get people to remember this next year when we start the season 5-20. In our darkest days in November I had a hell of a time trying to persuade folks that we had a better than 1% chance of making the playoffs.

 

[EspenK]

At 5-20 I don't need anyone to tell me we have a slim chance of making the playoffs. At our current record our chances are better but are still formidable.

 

[blahblah]

You are right on the money with 5 on 5 play being a predictor of success.

But....

How much better will the 5 on 5 play be with JENNER/ANISIMOV/MURRAY and possilby a stud deadline acquisition up front?

It would make a big difference imo. Injuries have been a big factor to me.

Wasn't all that good with Jenner and AA in the lineup at the beginning of the season. I think Dubinsky and Letestu are more important. Murray is a young kid that will be coming off injury. i wouldn't get too excited about that.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Maybe they'd like us better if we weren't such Corsi trolls.

 

[Cash for Nash]

Wasn't all that good with Jenner and AA in the lineup at the beginning of the season. I think Dubinsky and Letestu are more important. Murray is a young kid that will be coming off injury. i wouldn't get too excited about that.

Huh? Jenner was out the first month and a half of the season. Artie has either concussed or hurt. Murray definitely helps. Dubie and Letestu are great but I'm just talking about a healthy team here

 

[Forepar]

It's going to be tough.

As the 5v5 gets better (how I'm not sure how because most of our goals there are purely opportunistic in my mind. More 5v5 like Joey and Letestu last night and I will feel better) there is a good chance the power play regresses.

A positive is that I see our checking game getting better in the neutral and defensive end of the ice. #1 key to our success imo is good solid D and Bob playing near Vezina like.

***************************************************

To further forepar's effort to consolidate this discussion here is what i posted in another thread a few days ago:

I don't think we catch any of those teams (referring to Rangers/Isles/Caps) barring a major injury to key player(s). I think our best bet for a playoff berth is to catch one of Boston, Toronto or Florida for the last wild card.

Our current pace is a ppg.
Boston's is 1.1
Toronto 1.125
Florida 1.1622
Washington 1.24
Rangers 1.28

to reach 93 points which should get the last w/c spot here's what is needed per game

Jackets 1.24
Boston 1.17
Toronto 1.14
Florida 1.08
Washington 1.05
Rangers 1.02

Put another way we have to play 5% or so better than Boston or roughly 20% better than Washington an NY.

I think it is likely Boston gets better with Krejci and Chara back in the line-up ad Rask in goal even though he hasn't been so good this year.

Best bets are Toronto or Florida tanking a bit but even then we'd have to play about 20% better than we have been to make it.

Tough road.

Agree tough road, but I think it is now entirely in the CBJ's hands. If they go 24-14-6, and get to 93, or better yet just a point or two better, they won't have to rely on inordinate amount of help from others. I get your ppg analysis, its helpful, but unless there are an EXTRAORDINARY number of 3 pt games amongst the bubble teams, 94 will likely get in, 93 might not, and 95 should be a lock (though not a mortal lock!!!). Some bubble teams above us will not sustain their current pace or meet the pace to get to 93 - proves out almost every year, probably in large part due to more conference-weighted scheduling at end of season.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Great thread.

I think it's vital to keep in mind the reason behind the poor overall 5vs.5 goal scoring. It's pretty simple.

In 162 combined games, Boll (38), Chaput (33), Wennberg(28), Tropp (25), Gibbons (21) and Cracknell (17), have combined for ONE even strength goal. That's two full seasons of man-games and ONE stinking goal.

That's going to throw a wrench into the overall 5 vs. 5 stats and as these players mercifully find their way to the AHL and press box, the CBJ 5v5 goal scoring stats will more accurately reflect the team's true ability.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Great thread.

I think it's vital to keep in mind the reason behind the poor overall 5vs.5 goal scoring. It's pretty simple.

In 162 combined games, Boll (38), Chaput (33), Wennberg(28), Tropp (25), Gibbons (21) and Cracknell (17), have combined for ONE even strength goal. That's two full seasons of man-games and ONE stinking goal.

That's going to throw a wrench into the overall 5 vs. 5 stats and as these players mercifully find their way to the AHL and press box, the CBJ 5v5 goal scoring stats will more accurately reflect the team's true ability.

Yes, the 3rd and 4th lines have not really contributed a whole lot. Of course, with the injuries guys are moving up in the lineup and perhaps playing more minutes than normal. Last year, the depth scoring was a strength, imo. HCTR has basically been relying on his top 5/6 for EVERYTHING - PP, PK, scoring. The top 5-6 forwards are all playing upwards of 18-19 minutes a night. Shows who he trusts. Hopefully with a return to health, he can even that out and opponents won't be able to key on just a couple guys. We'll see.

 

[EspenK]

Leafs buried tonight by Caps. 6-2.

 

[major major]

Leafs have lost a few in a row, and so did Boston up until winning just now. Boston is now ahead of the leafs, and in the 8th spot. They are effectively the team we are chasing - they're 7 pts up and we have 3 games in hand. Very doable.

 

[ca5150]

I actually think we will be sitting in the last wildcard spot by the end of January, provided we win the head-to-heads with Toronto and Boston. We have 3 games in hand on Toronto, 6 back. I think Florida will fade, Rangers are too good to be caught. Washington will go through a losing steak. I think we finish with the 1st wild card spot.

 

[db2011]

This team can go 24-14-6. This is a good team. There's more to suggest that this team with this coach can attain those numbers than that the team that lost all those games is what this team really is. There's too much moxie in that room to let the team get down.

We'll make the playoffs.

 

[cbjgirl]

A lot will depend on how the team does versus the Islanders, Rangers, and Devils. Minimal or zero games played against those opponents. There are many divisional points up for grabs.

 

[BluejacketNut]

Thats why its time to upgrade. If we can get an upgrade from Atkinson and a pick, you do it. At some point you have to take the bull by the horns and go for it. People said the Pens giving up a 1st for Perron was expensive, but they expect to go deep, so its a late 1st rounder, not all that expensive. Im not suggesting we trade our 1st, but its time to upgrade this team

 

[Crede777]

One of the things the SportsClubStats doesn't factor in is us getting healthy.

As we add important guys back to the lineup, our 5v5 should get better. We were effectively running 2 lines for much of December given our injuries. That means, while our special teams (which relied on those lines) was good, our even strength wasn't. Once we get 3 or 4 formidable lines which we can roll, our 5v5 should come around.

 

[ndd17]

This team can go 24-14-6. This is a good team.
We'll make the playoffs.

Yup, absolutely. We can make and 24-14-6 and make PO. We really have good team. Less injuries, stable game Bob and stable game our defence.
But, 24-14-6 this total 93 points. With quantity three-points games in this season this isn't enough for PO.

 

[Columbus Mike]

With the goofy three point games and depending on how a team plays in OT, 24-14-6 can also be thought of as 24-20. If we get healthy I think we are a lot better than 4 games over .500.

 

[EspenK]

For comparative purposes last season we finished 26-14-4 for 56 points.
A repeat would get it done again. Keep in mind though that stretch included the 8 game winning streak.

Obviously doable but it is going to require a great run.

 

[JasonFH]

I have a lot of confidence in this team. I think they can easily make playoffs with the current picture, and a win over Toronto tomorrow night puts us in a position to easily jump Toronto.

I was on the Leafs board and they're all talking about blowing it all up and tanking! Half of them seem to want to lose to us