I am not sure a casino would want a hockey team next door since they do not bring people to the casino.
Then why does any casino have an arena/theater onsite?
Hint: FOOT TRAFFIC.
People come downtown for a hockey game...a casino is literally across the street -- perhaps even connected by airwalk. If any of those hockey patrons decide to blow $20 on a slot machine after the game, it's $20 more than MGM would get otherwise. Same reason Mohegan Sun Casino in Connecticut owns a WNBA franchise and an Indoor Lacrosse franchise that play in their onsite arena.
Additional potential benefit,
as mentioned in this article, is that the Falcons have the potential to attract fans from places like Hartford, Bridgeport, Providence, Portland, Albany, who might come into town to catch a game specifically because they can hit the slots/tables before & after the game.
Having said all that...
1) The commitment of MGM is for "
UP TO" $250k annually for
ALL non-MGM events at the MassMutual Center. "
The exact amount will be determined based on forecasted customer demand." Also, this agreement was enacted when Springfield had a NBA D-League franchise (since moved to Grand Rapids). Given all that, my expectation is that MGM's outlay for Falcons tickets would be significantly less than $250k per year. Probably just a fraction of that.
2) The casino is indeed at least 2.5 years away from opening. As we've seen this season, LOTS can happen in the AHL in a short period of time. Plenty of "offers that cannot be refused" can be made (cue The Godfather music), before the casino comes online. (The promise of casino bucks wasn't able to keep Springfield's D-League team from bailing out.)
3) MGM could decide that they don't want minor-league hockey to be part of their "foot traffic" strategy, in which case they would likely squeeze the Falcons out of prime weekend dates, and thus help force the team out of town (if they don't leave before then, for other reasons).
I expect that Charlie Pompea is getting a feel for where the Falcons fit in the future entertainment mix, and will take that into account when evaluating potential sale/relocation offers. Either way, it's a good time to be an AHL franchise owner. Demand -- and thus, asking price -- has probably never been higher.
I do agree that eventually, the Avs will probably wind up buying any of: Springfield, Portland, Syracuse, or perhaps Binghamton. And the ECHL will probably increase their presence in the Northeast. Given the way the NHL has been treating loyal AHL fan bases lately, I'm not sure I would miss the AHL if that were to happen.