Cat to the table: Auston Matthews vs Patrik Laine

[DatSnipeMatthews]

Matthews is above average at defending his spot at the sideline, what do you have? 40 goal scorer or a injury prone center, if we gonna go with the data we have know?

The data shows that Laine doesn't know how to skate with his head up, which led to his concussion last season.

 

[Mad Dog Tannen]

No, he's not.

Ovechkin's adjusted goal totals (per 82 games) in his first two seasons:

53, 48.

Laine's adjusted goal totals (per 82 games) in his first two seasons:

45, 50 (projected).

You're right that he's younger. Ovechkin scored 100+ points (104 adjusted points) in his age 20 season. Let's see how Laine does next season.

Oh snap, I must have read for this season and misinterpreted the post.

Thanks for looking in to it!

However, I’m not sure your projections are correct.

Ov adjusted:
52 age 20
48 age 21

Laine
40 age 18
60 age 19 ( projected over 82 games) 50 over 68

Sooooo. He’s pacing exactly the same rate as Ovie at 2years younger. Damn impressive!

 

[Philadelphia Ducks]

Right now? Laine because Matthews is injured and isn't playing.

 

[GlitchMarner]

Oh snap, I must have read for this season and misinterpreted the post.

Thanks for looking in to it!

However, if you are going to go through the trouble to fact check get it right.

Ov adjusted:
52 age 20
48 age 21

Laine
40 age 18
60 age 19 ( projected over 82 games) 50 over 68

Sooooo. He’s pacing exactly the same rate as Ovie at 2years younger. Damn impressive!

Great fact checking, lol.

He does not already have 50 adjusted goals this season. He is pacing for 50 adjusted goals in 82 games (assuming he has played every game).

The scoring rate is barely under 6.00 this season, which means he would need to score well over 50 goals to end up with 60 adjusted goals.

 

[Mad Dog Tannen]

Wasn't Matthews on projection to have better stats in both goals and assists than his rookie season prior to his most recent injury? If so that was after him previously missing 10 games this season.

Can’t bring your cat to the table if you’re injured.....

 

[Coach]

If Winnipeg didn't have Schiefele they'd trade Laine for Matthews in a heart beat.

Who do you think Edmonton would select if given the opportunity to choose between the 2.

 

[biotk]

You're right that he's younger. Ovechkin scored 100+ points (104 adjusted points) in his age 20 season. Let's see how Laine does next season.

Ovechkin also notched 106 points while distancing his two nearest teammates by 49 points and 62 points. He was the entire focus of the other teams.

I think that should be compared to Laine's current season. D+2 vs D+2. The "20 year old season" fetish is stupid. In the former Ovi is 6 months older than Laine. In the latter Laine is 6 months older than Ovi.

 

[Mad Dog Tannen]

He does not already have 50 adjusted goals this season. He is pacing for 50 adjusted goals in 82 games (assuming he has played every game).

The scoring rate is barely under 6.00 this season, which means he would need to score well over 50 goals to end up with 60 adjusted goals.

I believe you are Incorrect. His 40 is adjusted to 50 over 68 games, which translates to 60 over 82 era adjusted.

Don’t forget the other error of 52 being slightly bumped to 53 oops....

 

[LeafsNation75]

Yeah but Zach is much better offensively this year and Nylander is no slouch. Sure if JVR was in Zach's spot Matthews might have more points but Zach does help that line get the puck a lot.

That's also true and Hyman has played better this season compared to last season. However if someone like JVR as you said or even Marner was on Matthews wing instead, Matthews would benefit a lot more.

 

[Coach]

Obviously I voted for Matthews because in the end it's a lot better to have him since he's an elite #1 centre and those are harder to get in the NHL.

So Laine best pure goal scorer drafted since Ovi. So possibly comes along every 10 years. Matthews elite # 1 centre last came around the draft a year before (McDavid & Eichel). Matthews barely made it into the list of top 10 centres on this board in 10th when Leaf fans flooded the vote.
Laine tied for the rocket race as a 19 year old goal scoring winger. Matthews isn't tied for first currently as the league's dominant centre at 20. I would argue a Centre of Matthews ability comes around every 3 years. That a goal scoring winger like Laine at best every 10 years. No way it's easier finding a pure goal scorer like Laine than finding an elite centre like Matthews.
People may prioritize a centre over a winger but a lot more Centre's at Matthews level than goal scoring wingers at Laine's.

 

[GlitchMarner]

I believe you are Incorrect. His 40 is adjusted to 50 over 68 games, which translates to 60 over 82 era adjusted.

Don’t forget the other error of 52 being slightly bumped to 53 oops....

No, Hockey-Reference is giving him an adjusted goals projection of 50 for the entire season; it is not indicating that his current adjusted goal total is 50 goals.

There's no need for the projection over 82 games because the projection has already been done.


Ovechkin missed a game in his rookie season. 52 adjusted goals in 81 games = 53 adjusted goals in 82 games (if you round up). I gave Laine 45 instead of 40 in his first season.

 

[M C D A V I D]

Who do you think Edmonton would select if given the opportunity to choose between the 2.

Laine because we already have Mcdavid and Drai and need a lethal goal scorer.

 

[WillTheThrill]

If I was starting a brand new team and had the chance to pick between the two, it's Matthews. Laine is absolutely perfect for the Jets though who already have a #1 C.

 

[LeafsNation75]

So Laine best pure goal scorer drafted since Ovi. So possibly comes along every 10 years. Matthews elite # 1 centre last came around the draft a year before (McDavid & Eichel). Matthews barely made it into the list of top 10 centres on this board in 10th when Leaf fans flooded the vote.
Laine tied for the rocket race as a 19 year old goal scoring winger. Matthews isn't tied for first currently as the league's dominant centre at 20. I would argue a Centre of Matthews ability comes around every 3 years. That a goal scoring winger like Laine at best every 10 years. No way it's easier finding a pure goal scorer like Laine than finding an elite centre like Matthews.
People may prioritize a centre over a winger but a lot more Centre's at Matthews level than goal scoring wingers at Laine's.

In Matthews rookie season he still scored 40 goals and was tied for 2nd in that category. How many other rookies can say they did that? Look in the end I prefer Matthews and Jets fans will prefer Laine. There is nothing wrong with that and these comparisons need to stop. Matthews plays in the Eastern Conference and Laine plays in the Western Conference, so they only face each other 2x a year. This is not the next Crosby vs Ovechkin. If Matthews should be compared to someone it should be Jack Eichel given that both play in the same division, both play at centre and how both are the next waive of young American talent.

 

[Mad Dog Tannen]

No, Hockey-Reference is giving him an adjusted goals projection of 50 for the entire season; it is not indicating that his current adjusted goal total is 50 goals.

There's no need for the projection over 82 games because the projection has already been done.


Ovechkin missed a game in his rookie season. 52 adjusted goals in 81 games = 53 adjusted goals in 82 games (if you round up). I gave Laine 45 instead of 40 in his first season.

Nope. That's not how adjusted works. Check out the instructions on hockey reference and recreate the numbers. Adjusted over 82 is 60.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Too close to call at this point.

 

[Mad Dog Tannen]

No, Hockey-Reference is giving him an adjusted goals projection of 50 for the entire season; it is not indicating that his current adjusted goal total is 50 goals.

There's no need for the projection over 82 games because the projection has already been done.


Ovechkin missed a game in his rookie season. 52 adjusted goals in 81 games = 53 adjusted goals in 82 games (if you round up). I gave Laine 45 instead of 40 in his first season.

You know I don't know enough to be correct and would like to finally learn to be confident in the actual calculations.

I recreated the steps following the instructions and got 50 and no step projects it over 82.

I'm not saying I'm right, but I haven't seen enough to know you are either.

I'm out right now but when I'm home I'll show my math and if it's wrong I will have learned something useful today.

 

[Coach]

Laine isn't Ovechkin at age 20.

Everyone is just guessing Ovi vs Laine in their 20's. Impossible to compare over different generations. We can however compare Ovi is his early 30's vs Laine as a teenager and doesn't look like a large gap.
Laine 76 goals in 141 games. Ovi 73 goals in 150 games.

 

[Coach]

No, he's not.

Ovechkin's adjusted goal totals (per 82 games) in his first two seasons:

53, 48.

Laine's adjusted goal totals (per 82 games) in his first two seasons:

45, 50 (projected).

You're right that he's younger. Ovechkin scored 100+ points (104 adjusted points) in his age 20 season. Let's see how Laine does next season.

Nice try not exactly an apples to apples comparison. In Ovi's rookie season 14 players scored 90 points last season the NHL had 1 scorer record 90 points. So obviously was easier to score goals when Ovi started than it is now. Ovi tied for 3rd in the rocket race as a 20 year old Laine is tied for the lead as a 19 year old.

 

[Coach]

Matthews has also played his whole career with Zach Hyman who is still a good player, however he's no where close to a scoring winger Matthews needs on his line.

Sounds like the Leafs could really use a goal scoring winger like Laine. Jets couldn't use Matthews after next season when his new contract kicks in.

 

[StatisticsAddict99]

Laine, his performance has proved he’s currently better. Though Matthews will win because the Leafs have a larger(rather largest) fan base with more people who will vote for him, the Leafs fans are a bigger factor than performance in this poll...

But let’s be honest this is a beaten to death subject that will only frustrate two fan bases and needs to be put to bed..

 

[LeafsNation75]

Sounds like the Leafs could really use a goal scoring winger like Laine. Jets couldn't use Matthews after next season when his new contract kicks in.

If Babcock wanted to he could put Marner or JVR on Matthews line, however both are playing well with the lines they are currently on.

 

[Coach]

Prior to the injuries, he was scoring at a 100 point pace, and even after he came back from the first one, he still produced enough to stay on a 90+ point pace until the second injury. He hasn't played healthy for majority of the season.

Matthews has been less than a point per game player all season. So unless he played a 110 game season unlikely he scored 100 points this year.

 

[GlitchMarner]

Nice try not exactly an apples to apples comparison. In Ovi's rookie season 14 players scored 90 points last season the NHL had 1 scorer record 90 points. So obviously was easier to score goals when Ovi started than it is now. Ovi tied for 3rd in the rocket race as a 20 year old Laine is tied for the lead as a 19 year old.

There should be at least seven or eight players who hit the 90 point mark this season. We'll see about next season.

 

[hockeyguy1967]

Seems to be like every single Laine/Matthews thread leads to war so it's correct time to step up and offer solution. Constructive discussion so we can find out which one people prefers here in HfBoards.

Laine not close to be honest.