Casper vs Gumption

[LUF]

Alright, we all knew this thread was coming; might as well start it now and revisit it in a couple of months to see how the situation changed. What is your take on Stastny vs Sobotka?

Up to this point, this is mostly about potential versus adversity. Stastny have the best potential for sure, but up to now, he's not very effective. With Sobotka, we know on well he plays in Hitch's system, but we also know his shortcoming (limited offensive output).

What we DON'T know is what we could have done cap wise; what signing we'd end with... Let's say Sobotka signs for 4M. Let's pretend we don't sign Ott because we still have Sobotka. That's 5.6M saved in cap. That's Iginla/Vrbata kind of money.

STL
SOB
Berglund/Sobotka/Vrbata or Iginla
Porter/Lapierre/Reaves

Let's also pretend Sobotka accepts his 3C role after Lehtera gets proven, especially as it more feels like a 2B as he'd either center Oshie or Vrbata/Iginla.

I know, I know, hindsight is 20/20, I wouldn't have made that move and would have went with Stastny too, but would the Blues be a better team with that lineup? Now? What about in the future? What's your take on the matter?

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[AmazingLarry]

Alright, we all knew this thread was coming; might as well start it now and revisit it in a couple of months to see how the situation changed. What is your take on Stastny vs Sobotka?

Up to this point, this is mostly about potential versus adversity. Stastny have the best potential for sure, but up to now, he's not very effective. With Sobotka, we know on well he plays in Hitch's system, but we also know his shortcoming (limited offensive output).

What we DON'T know is what we could have done cap wise; what signing we'd end with... Let's say Sobotka signs for 4M. Let's pretend we don't sign Ott because we still have Sobotka. That's 5.6M saved in cap. That's Iginla/Vrbata kind of money.

STL
SOB
Berglund/Sobotka/Vrbata or Iginla
Porter/Lapierre/Reaves

Let's also pretend Sobotka accepts his 3C role after Lehtera gets proven, especially as it more feels like a 2B as he'd either center Oshie or Vrbata/Iginla.

I know, I know, hindsight is 20/20, I wouldn't have made that move and would have went with Stastny too, but would the Blues be a better team with that lineup? Now? What about in the future? What's your take on the matter?

This assumes Vrbata or Iginla would have come here to play. We had no choice but to throw money at Stastny as he clearly had a strong interest in coming home. Is he overpaid? Yeah a bit, and you can blame that on Colorado giving him an absurd 6.6 million per year contract several years ago. I think our roster with Sobotka instead of Stastny would be far worse. Say Backes gets hurt again. Would you rather have Stastny move into his spot or Sobotka? We've seen what Sobotka can do as a top six center and he wasn't good enough.

 

[Meatwagon]

What I'm suprised about is that very few have realized that after a big free agent signs a huge contract for a new team, fans/mgmt should basically write off the 1st half of the season after he signs the contract.

Happens in baseball ALL the time, player X signs a huge deal, then sucks the following year. It's usually due to the new level of expectations from himself and others in the org, and they tend to press and struggle to find their game that made them a high priced FA to begin with.

Lets also not forget, he only got 4 yr term, the short contract forced Army to up his AAV. It's part of negotiations. He'll be fine, but in the world of the pitch fork mafia, there's no room for error or adjustment period.

He's not a 80 pt player, ZOMG lets get him!

 

[2 Minute Minor]

Too much is being put on Lehtera. His transition has been good, but it will still be pretty shocking if he doesn't wear down in the 2nd half. He's already some fall off in production and some games where he's almost not noticeable.

Stastny has high level play capability. Its still there. What he doesn't have right now is established chemistry with line-mates. He also lost a lot of momentum with that shoulder injury. To me, there has been hesitancy to engage physically. There's a mental part to overcoming an injury that sometimes just takes time, to get confident again.

Who is the bigger drag on the 3rd line, Lindstrom or Stastny? I'd say its Lindstrom. He's just not strong enough on the puck. That line is unable to effectively cycle. Stastny has less chance to find that pass for a scoring chance. Berglund has stepped up his play, and hopefully we're seeing a flash of Jaskin being able to stick on that line. It would go a long way. But last game we saw Stastny winning a large majority of his face-offs and being involved in enough chances that there is plenty of reason for optimism.

I really loved watching Sobotka, and I hope he comes back....but his legend has outgrown what he actually brings to the team. He never was productive of much offense. He won a great percentage of face-offs, and was much more effective than his size on board battles and the cycle. There is no way he deserves a 4M contract, and the Blues are better with Stastny than they are with Sobotka. Can you recall all those great plays Sobotka made in the playoffs the past couple seasons? No? Neither can I.

Its a great situation. The Blues are winning a good chunk of their points, playing very well at times, and several players are not hitting on all cylinders yet. A guy like Stastny needs to play better, but the team isn't in a desperate situation where its hurting very much if his integration into the club takes a bit of time. I'll be looking for him to get some chemistry with linemates over the next 1/3 of the season. Maybe we'll see Armstrong make a trade, or maybe Jaskin will stick. Berglund is likely to be moved, but maybe not until the off-season, especially if he is on a line that's working with Stastny. To my eye, the two of them are starting to be effective together, and Jaskin was much better than Lindstrom with allowing the possession to continue in the zone and playing wtih some physicality. Its still a position that could be upgraded with a deadline rental, and maybe we'll see that.

 

[KirkOut]

When a guy has a great hot-streak (see: Steen last year) everyone is so quick to point out that regression to the mean will certainly happen soon. Why isn't it the same when a guy has a cold streak?

 

[LGB51]

Because playing well is a lot harder to do then playing poorly is.

 

[KirkOut]

Because playing well is a lot harder to do then playing poorly is.

Yeah but those arguements are always statistical in nature (So and so has a career shooting percentage of X, no way he finishes the season with a shooting percentage of Y). So regression happens from both directions.

 

[Multimoodia]

Alright, we all knew this thread was coming; might as well start it now and revisit it in a couple of months to see how the situation changed. What is your take on Stastny vs Sobotka?

Up to this point, this is mostly about potential versus adversity. Stastny have the best potential for sure, but up to now, he's not very effective. With Sobotka, we know on well he plays in Hitch's system, but we also know his shortcoming (limited offensive output).

What we DON'T know is what we could have done cap wise; what signing we'd end with... Let's say Sobotka signs for 4M. Let's pretend we don't sign Ott because we still have Sobotka. That's 5.6M saved in cap. That's Iginla/Vrbata kind of money.

STL
SOB
Berglund/Sobotka/Vrbata or Iginla
Porter/Lapierre/Reaves

Let's also pretend Sobotka accepts his 3C role after Lehtera gets proven, especially as it more feels like a 2B as he'd either center Oshie or Vrbata/Iginla.

I know, I know, hindsight is 20/20, I wouldn't have made that move and would have went with Stastny too, but would the Blues be a better team with that lineup? Now? What about in the future? What's your take on the matter?

I can think of no time where I would trade Sobotka for Stastny, caphit and fictional winger included.
I also can't think of a time in the next few years either.


Blues needed a true #1/#2 center to pair with Backes. It just so happens they managed to snag a couple of them leaving Stastny as the odd man out since he plays better with players not named Tarasenko. When Backes inevitably gets injured later this season this will look very good. In a couple years when Backes likely signs somewhere else it'll look even better.

 

[Multimoodia]

When a guy has a great hot-streak (see: Steen last year) everyone is so quick to point out that regression to the mean will certainly happen soon. Why isn't it the same when a guy has a cold streak?

Because the player in question is wearing a Blue note and as such it's pretty obvious they're going to regress to Adam Creighton's mean.

 

[EastonBlues22]

What I'm suprised about is that very few have realized that after a big free agent signs a huge contract for a new team, fans/mgmt should basically write off the 1st half of the season after he signs the contract.

Happens in baseball ALL the time, player X signs a huge deal, then sucks the following year. It's usually due to the new level of expectations from himself and others in the org, and they tend to press and struggle to find their game that made them a high priced FA to begin with.

Lets also not forget, he only got 4 yr term, the short contract forced Army to up his AAV. It's part of negotiations. He'll be fine, but in the world of the pitch fork mafia, there's no room for error or adjustment period.

He's not a 80 pt player, ZOMG lets get him!

Agreed.

A significant part of playing well in sports at higher levels is being in your comfort zone. Athletes have their routines and superstitions to help get their minds and bodies where they need to be to perform, but things like being unfamiliar with your teammates, being unfamiliar with a new system/coach, not feeling "right" or having confidence in your body during/after an injury, etc. can all significantly affect an athlete's level of play, and it takes time to re-establish that comfort zone.

Sometimes a player is leaving a situation that's so bad that even a completely foreign situation is much more comfortable for them, but generally I think the opposite is true. I think that's part of why deadline rentals rarely seem to play better for their new team than their previous one, even if their new team is better, and why players on brand new teams tend to struggle at first.

Like pretty much everyone else, I'm far from thrilled with Stastny's game thus far. I don't pretend to know exactly why that's the case, but I think a third of the way into his first season here is far too early to be truly concerned.

I've seen more than enough of him to know that he's a far superior player to Sobotka, and I have confidence that will eventually show through on the ice.

 

[Multimoodia]

Like pretty much everyone else, I'm far from thrilled with Stastny's game thus far. I don't pretend to know exactly why that's the case, but I think a third of the way into his first season here is far too early to be truly concerned.

Just so I have it easily available when needed, do we have an official timeline for when to become concerned regarding various player's statistical outputs?
And furthermore does that timeline have gradations for when panic is allowed?

I hate to panic at an inappropriate time.

 

[Stopsight]

I'd rather have an underperforming player that I know can ratchet it up another level on the blues than an alternative with a much lower ceiling. I'm fine with what stastny has done so far, we aren't even halfway in the season.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Just so I have it easily available when needed, do we have an official timeline for when to become concerned regarding various player's statistical outputs?
And furthermore does that timeline have gradations for when panic is allowed?

I hate to panic at an inappropriate time.

Yeah, you're all about avoiding the inappropriate.

Even though I'm sure that levity was your primary concern, there's still a reasonable underlying question here to address. (You're forgiven, as I'm sure it won't happen again.)

If Stastny still looks relatively bad after 60 games or so, I'll be fairly concerned for the playoffs. Barring a ridiculous offer/opportunity, I don't think I would entertain the thought of trading him until his third year.

 

[Multimoodia]

Even though I'm sure that levity was your primary concern, there's still a reasonable underlying question here to address. (You're forgiven, as I'm sure it won't happen again.)

I'm always bringing up reasonable concerns.
...or perhaps that's supposed to be risible.

If Stastny still looks relatively bad after 60 games or so, I'll be fairly concerned for the playoffs. Barring a ridiculous offer/opportunity, I don't think I would entertain the thought of trading him until his third year.

You still didn't give me a timeline for panicking.
I need that one.

 

[EastonBlues22]

I'm always bringing up reasonable concerns.
...or perhaps that's supposed to be risible.

You still didn't give me a timeline for panicking.
I need that one.

There's no timeline for panicking. You're supposed to panic when everyone else starts panicking. That's how panicking works.

If people don't panic at the same time, it's not a panic...it's just one guy acting like a crazed lunatic in a sea of tranquility.

 

[KirkOut]

Hopefully Stastny will find his groove, and who would complain if it happened oh say mid-April?

There's no timeline for panicking. You're supposed to panic when everyone else starts panicking. That's how panicking works.

If people don't panic at the same time, it's not a panic...it's just one guy acting like a crazed lunatic in a sea of tranquility.

I think you just came up with the name for the next Dream Theater album

 

[Multimoodia]

There's no timeline for panicking. You're supposed to panic when everyone else starts panicking. That's how panicking works.

If people don't panic at the same time, it's not a panic...it's just one guy acting like a crazed lunatic in a sea of tranquility.

I prefer to orderly panic. Any schlub can panic when everyone else does, but I prefer to keep that sort of thing to a schedule.

A disorganized riot is simply that: disorganized. I prefer to make sure everyone is on the same sheet of music. You don't want one group of people tipping over cars while the rest are over raiding the stores, do you?

That sort of thing needs to be organized Easton, your blase attitude toward this concerns me.

 

[EastonBlues22]

I prefer to orderly panic. Any schlub can panic when everyone else does, but I prefer to keep that sort of thing to a schedule.

A disorganized riot is simply that: disorganized. I prefer to make sure everyone is on the same sheet of music. You don't want one group of people tipping over cars while the rest are over raiding the stores, do you?

That sort of thing needs to be organized Easton, your blase attitude toward this concerns me.

My Idiot's Guide to Administration says that I should delegate things that I don't care about to people that do. Consider the job yours.

We're facing Anaheim on the road January 2nd. I suggest you have a plan in place by then.

 

[frostyflo]

just read a hockeynews article where they speculate the players on his team go home unpaid and he could be back rather sooner then later. would be cool if this thread would become unnecessary (not that it makes much sense anyway).

btw, and thats not meant in any negative kind of way, whats with this north american obsession to compare anyone and anything? especially with people/things you cant have/are unavailable for you anyway?!

 

[Multimoodia]

My Idiot's Guide to Administration says that I should delegate things that I don't care about to people that do. Consider the job yours.

We're facing Anaheim on the road January 2nd. I suggest you have a plan in place by then.

As you can see by my lack of moderator duties and blue font, I am not a leader. Merely a follower.

Lemmings don't make up plans, we just follow along.

 

[EastonBlues22]

As you can see by my lack of moderator duties and blue font, I am not a leader. Merely a follower.

Lemmings don't make up plans, we just follow along.

If you were truly a lemming, you would have driven yourself over a cliff long ago.

Obviously you are something else. A deceitful vole masquerading as a lemming, perhaps. Or a Frenchman.

 

[Twisted Blue]

Frenchman can be so rude!

 

[Multimoodia]

If you were truly a lemming, you would have driven yourself over a cliff long ago.

I probably should've but I always get distracted before getting to the cliff. Then I'm forced to wander the wilderness until I either find another group or get adopted by David Backes when he mistakes me for a chihuahua.

 

[STLBloosiers]

Stastny has played with no one for a consistent amount of time…..

 

[LUF]

I'm glad to see this board level headed enough to still see the potential in Paul despite what we're reading left and right. As stated, it goes without saying that Stastny is a much better player than Sobotka and never did I alleged anything else (but I'll admit I could have worded that better). I'm mean, he's been Casper for most of the season and still have Sobotka's like production.

What I was more interested in was exploring a different scenario. Berglund-Sobotka-Vrbata/Iginla vs Berglund-Stastny-Lindstrom. I do feel the 3rd line would be more complete this way but...

Yeah, injuries. I guess that when we're missing a center, Stastny is a much better option. What I'm still unsure is how well he could replace Backes. I did watch Stastny for about 15-20 games in my lifetime and I doubt he'll ever bring the edge Backes brings. Sobotka could, but wouldn't produce enough to warrant top 6. When Backes goes down, all that's remaining for shaking the opposition is the 4th line...

My best guess is that the real problem is that our weakest link is still Backes; he's not replacable. Just think on how the game changed so much when he got hurt earlier this year... and I'd rather not think about last year... I still want to see the United Center burn...