GDT: Carolina Hurricanes VS Washington Capitals

[Dishface]

So, thoughts from the game:

Darling got more comfortable as it went along. Though I get the feeling cross-ice 5 hole will be the new glove high.

Hanifin... I'm tellin ya man, he has it, this could be his breakout year. Anyone that thought a "meh" level 1C with 2 years left on their contract could get him last year was nuts, now they'd be absolutely insane. A TON of people are going to be in for a rude awakening about the kid.

It's nice to have a 3rd pairing that's not a dumpster fire.

It's even nicer to have enough forward depth to the point that we'll have a full line in Charlotte that would be in the show for us most years... And frankly could be in the show for quite a few teams in the league in Kuokkanen, PDG, and Wallmark.

Call me crazy but I think the Caps may be in trouble this year. Their lack of depth showed in both pre-season games in a big way and their defense is meh at best. OV, Backstrom, and Holtby might keep them in the playoff hunt, but I also wouldn't be shocked to see a Dallas style crash and burn either.


Uhhhhh.... no.


edit: I didn't even see Kev's post before posting my thoughts. Just have to say while I can see where he's coming from, I disagree. Only thing about our forwards that's concerned me so far is that Stempy got zero game time and Skinner wasn't super productive, and we all know what Skinner is capable of when he's on and that's he's streaky so I can easily write that one off. Unless someone would jump at Fleury for Duchene type deal, I don't think a move on D is necessary at all. We'll win by depth ala Nashville last season.

I have the same feeling about Washington. They made some notable negative moves this offseason like giving out those big contracts. In order to stay competitive, you have to, but that's where trading away all your first round picks hurt. Those picks could eventually replace those guys like oshie and be cost controlled. I think they will still make the playoffs, but I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't.

 

[Breakdowns]

I get that you guys don't like my style, but you're wrong. This was the first game with almost our entire group. They did not play 2 games with their "normal set of forwards" and score 9 goals. Here was our "normal" group for the 6-2 win in Edmonton.

Teravainen-Staal-Williams
Aho-Rask-Lindholm
Saarela-Necas-Kuokkanen
Nordstrom-Wallmark-Jooris

Yep. Normal. I fully expect Skinner, Ryan, Kruger and McGinn to be healthy scratches opening night.

We had our entire starting lineup tonight except Kuokkanen in place of TT and Necas in place of Stempniak (which is very likely an upgrade). Other than that, the rest of our starting 20 was on the ice. And the forwards sucked. Against an AHL lineup.

I don't mind that you don't like how I say things. I get it. But changing the facts to fit your narrative because you don't like mine is disingenuous.

How about this, how did you think our starting NHL forwards looked tonight against a mostly AHL defense?

Because starting your post with words- "You are wrong", is a way to convince other people that you are right.

Maybe let the season start and then let`s talk about scoring? Pre-season is pre-season, not everyone is playing 100% and it doesn`t matter who you play against, this is not real competition. Our forwards can score, look at Oilers game, only because few guys didn`t play is not making your point valid that our normal top9 can`t score.

Our top9 is not elite, that`s for sure, but we have good players and they will get their points when the season start. Plus, they are young, and at least some of them will make a step forwards in their development and point scoring.

And mobile defense is way to go in modern NHL, you need scoring from both D and F, and our D one of the best in both ends of the rink. Add above average goaltender and you have a good team.

And as others said, McGinn is not guaranteed anything in this lineup.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Yeah I don't think anyone is disagreeing with Kev about that D move needing to be made eventually ("sorry Jake, I know you're 23 and coming off your second straight 80pt season in Charlotte, but you'll be heading back there again this year, there's just no room.")

I just really don't think that time is right now, and I don't think that player is Duchene.

I also think "basically our whole NHL forward lineup except for two guys sucked against an AHL defense" is equally as imperfect a narrative as "basically our whole NHL forward lineup except for 3 guys dominated the Oilers and put up 6 goals. And look! They didn't even need Skinner!" Both made imperfect by the fact that in each case you're talking about one game that doesn't matter. (We won both, oddly enough, for you doom and gloomers.)

No one here thinks our forward group has "arrived" yet. That was never the plan for this year. But we've got several young guys ready to take a step (watch out for TT if this injury isn't major), and we added Williams and Kruger this offseason (Kruger replacing literally the worst forward in the NHL last year). We've made improvements, and should expect modest progression amongst our youngsters as well.

As far as that eventual trade goes, if Hanifin projects as well as we all think he will this year, there will be much more to gain from him than Matt Duchene next offseason. Same with Fleury, much more trade value once he actually proves he's an NHL player.

Francis has methodically and patiently built this depth over the course of 3-4 years, because we had none. After all this work we can only make the F for D trade once, let's have the patience to make sure it's the right one and it makes sense for now and the future. Whenever it happens, it will be a climactic event for this rebuild and franchise. God forbid we end up giving a #1 dman away and Duchene ends up being a 48 point guy.


Kev, based on this, as well as some past arguments, I get the feeling you'd have a bit of an itchy trigger finger as a GM. And in the past that would've resulted in trading Ruutu and Gleason instead of re-signing, maybe actually getting a guy to play with Staal, etc. Some good things that may have snuck us into the playoffs a few times. But the depth that is now the talk of the league would never have gotten here.

Once Francis traded Staal I knew he had the balls to make the F for D trade eventually. But I think he knows there's absolutely no reason to force the wrong trade because you're too impatient to wait for the right one to come along. I like that.

 

[dogbazinho]

I think it's less about the timing being right on our side and more the timing being right on the player that is available. If Taveres is truly available you make the move regardless of the situation it leaves the D in. I would have flipped Faulk for Duchene or Druin even but I guess with the season approaching I have to be patient. I'd only consider Hanifin for a true 1C. Next off season will be interesting.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

To be clear, I agree with Kev's position that this team's forward talent isn't quite good enough. I do think it's good enough to make the playoffs, but don't think it's good enough to compete for a cup. A lot of it will depend on if Lindholm, Aho and TT take step up in their development, but on the whole, I do agree with that premise. Just to put it in perspective though here's where the Canes goal scoring ranked last year:

Overall: 20th in the NHL
5v5: 16th in the NHL
4v4: 29th in the NHL
3v3: 16th in the NHL
5v4: 21st in the NHL
5v3: 16th in the NHL

The addition of Williams and the growth of some players "should" improve those rankings this coming season, even if a player or two regresses but there's not much margin for error here.

I also think that a defense for forward move will have to be made by the Canes, so the only disagreement is on the timing and which player. Kev feels we should be making a Hanifin for Duchene deal right now and there is merit in that opinion. My view is that we should not make that move right now as I think Hanifin's value is low, but am confident it will be higher as soon as the next 3 months. I also have concerns about Duchene's contract status, as does Francis, but no point in debating that as none of us know for sure what could happen.

Another factor that RF has to, and very likely IS considering is that there will be another expansion draft in the not too distant future. Canes are going to either have to trade a defenseman before that OR lose one in the expansion draft (or both).

 

[Chrispy]

To be clear, I agree with Kev's position that this team's forward talent isn't quite good enough. I do think it's good enough to make the playoffs, but don't think it's good enough to compete for a cup. A lot of it will depend on if Lindholm, Aho and TT take step up in their development, but on the whole, I do agree with that premise. Just to put it in perspective though here's where the Canes goal scoring ranked last year:

Overall: 20th in the NHL
5v5: 16th in the NHL
4v4: 29th in the NHL
3v3: 16th in the NHL
5v4: 21st in the NHL
5v3: 16th in the NHL

The addition of Williams and the growth of some players "should" improve those rankings this coming season, even if a player or two regresses but there's not much margin for error here.

I also think that a defense for forward move will have to be made by the Canes, so the only disagreement is on the timing and which player. Kev feels we should be making a Hanifin for Duchene deal right now and there is merit in that opinion. My view is that we should not make that move right now as I think Hanifin's value is low, but am confident it will be higher as soon as the next 3 months. I also have concerns about Duchene's contract status, as does Francis, but no point in debating that as none of us know for sure what could happen.

Another factor that RF has to, and very likely IS considering is that there will be another expansion draft in the not too distant future. Canes are going to either have to trade a defenseman before that OR lose one in the expansion draft (or both).

I agree that there will be a certain point where a deal will be made, not only for need of forward talent but necessity due to a logjam on the blue line.

However, I think Francis sees that at least 3 of the assets he has to trade are still increasing in value, and probably rapidly increasing in value: Hanifin, Fleury, and Bean. I think holding these 3 to maximize their trade value makes sense. Even if all 3 don't maximize their potential, there's still an opportunity to deal one and have a good defense corp.

Another thing I've concluded looking at these F-D trades the past few years is that surprising forwards hit the market a lot more often than we think. So if Francis doesn't like the contract timing or recent play of Duchene, there will be another forward who many will be surprised to see on the market in the near future. When I look back and see deals involving Drouin, Hall, Johansen, and Seguin in recent seasons, it makes me confident there will be another opportunity for Francis to make his F-D trade.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

The way Hanifin played both against the Oilers and again last night is very promising. He played with so much more poise and confidence and if that continues, it bodes well. He certainly is flashing the potential that made him the #5 OA. I wasn't sure about Slavin paired with Faulk, but Slavin allows Faulk to be a little more aggressive offensively, kind of how Methot was the anchor allowing Karlsson to be aggressive offensively. If Faulk stays healthy, I see a 20G, 50+ point season from him this year.

 

[Unsustainable]

The way Hanifin played both against the Oilers and again last night is very promising. He played with so much more poise and confidence and if that continues, it bodes well. He certainly is flashing the potential that made him the #5 OA. I wasn't sure about Slavin paired with Faulk, but Slavin allows Faulk to be a little more aggressive offensively, kind of how Methot was the anchor allowing Karlsson to be aggressive offensively. If Faulk stays healthy, I see a 20G, 50+ point season from him this year.

Hanifin jumped up after moving up from 3rd pairing and with a true top 4 D partner. After Hainsey left he blew up, now look at him.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I am excite for this match of stickpuck

 

[the halleJOKEL]

I am excite for this match of stickpuck

sorry buddy

it was last night

 

[tarheelhockey]

sorry buddy

it was last night

Wrong

 

[the halleJOKEL]

Wrong

 

[The Faulker 27]

What's the best preseason run we've had since 2009? 5 out of 7 is pretty strong. Not that it matters, but the winds of change seem to be blowing.

 

[cptjeff]

What's the best preseason run we've had since 2009? 5 out of 7 is pretty strong. Not that it matters, but the winds of change seem to be blowing.

The best we've had as far back as ESPN has data. Including the Cup year.
17: 5-2
16: 4-2-1
15: 4-2
14: 2-5
13: 3-3
11: 1-4-1
10: 3-3
09: 2-2
08: 3-3 (ECF)
07: 4-1-1
06: 1-3-1
05: 5-2-1 (Cup)
03: 3-5
02: 2-6-1

The Avs were the best team in preseason last year, so best not too read too much into it, but I think it's fair to consider it another good sign of progress.

 

[geehaad]

And some people don't think we're Cup contenders...

 

[Ole Gil]

The way Hanifin looked in pre bodes very well. It's going to be good times for whatever Canes forward line is out there with those 2. Almost like 5 forwards on the rush.

 

[My Special Purpose]

However, I think Francis sees that at least 3 of the assets he has to trade are still increasing in value, and probably rapidly increasing in value: Hanifin, Fleury, and Bean. I think holding these 3 to maximize their trade value makes sense. Even if all 3 don't maximize their potential, there's still an opportunity to deal one and have a good defense corp.

You're going on the assumption that other teams need to "see" these guys reach their potential in order to trade solid assets for them. Other teams have scouting staffs, too. Other teams scouted these guys before and after the draft. Other teams know what we have and what we may have in the future. They key is to see far enough into the future to know which guys are going to pan out and which aren't, and trade the ones who won't before playing more actually hurts their value.

The 90s Braves gave a master class is asset management. For a while, they had a gift in drafting, developing and acquiring pitchers. They had so many of them at the major league and minor league levels. Then they traded from that depth. But they identified Maddux, Glavine, Avery and Smoltz as their core and kept them through all of it.

IMO, the Canes need to do the same thing now. Identify the four who will be the core for the next 5-7 years and trade the rest. Odds are very high that not all of our guys are going to pan out. It makes sense to trade the guys who we don't see in that Core-4 sooner than later.

And I'm not advocating the Hanifin for Duchene deal specifically, although I'm still not sold on Hanifin's smarts. I think there are a lot of All-Star level forwards we could shake loose if we made our 5-8 guys available.

And yes, if I were an NHL GM right now, I'd be hyper-aggressive. I firmly believe that going counter to the current convention is the way to get ahead, and the current ultra risk-averse atmosphere is begging for an aggressive GM to move his club ahead quickly and accelerate a rebuild.

 

[Chrispy]

My point is the more the other teams see the potential, the more valuable they are and the better the piece they bring back. If Fleury plays well this season, we could be talking about Fluery as a centerpiece for Duchene instead of Hanifin-Duchene like last season. If Bean continues his progression, he's able to bring back a better forward than he can now.

And I think patience is on Francis's side right now. He has the space to develop these defensemen, and just about all of them cost-certain or cost-controlled for a number of years. That gives him the ability to search out the best deal rather than the first decent deal.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

And I'm not advocating the Hanifin for Duchene deal specifically, although I'm still not sold on Hanifin's smarts. I think there are a lot of All-Star level forwards we could shake loose if we made our 5-8 guys available.

Such as?

I'm not asking to antagonize you. I'm genuinely curious as I'm struggling to come up with names that (1) make sense for Carolina to acquire as a player and asset (2) play for an organization that has enough depth to withstand the loss of said player and (3) play for an organization that has a need for what Carolina would have to offer. Nylander in Toronto, Reinhart in Buffalo and Ehlers in Winnipeg stand out in my mind, but only as potential options in future, not the present.

 

[My Special Purpose]

My point is the more the other teams see the potential, the more valuable they are and the better the piece they bring back. If Fleury plays well this season, we could be talking about Fluery as a centerpiece for Duchene instead of Hanifin-Duchene like last season. If Bean continues his progression, he's able to bring back a better forward than he can now.

And I think patience is on Francis's side right now. He has the space to develop these defensemen, and just about all of them cost-certain or cost-controlled for a number of years. That gives him the ability to search out the best deal rather than the first decent deal.

I get your point, I just think you're wrong. You're basing your opinion on "ifs." "If Fleury plays well this season," and "If Bean continues his progression." Well, what if they don't. The odds of all of our guys progressing toward NHL regulars are extremely low. Odds are at least one of our guys' value is at its highest point right now (my choice: Hanifin). If Fleury plays poorly this season, we could be talking about him as a centerpiece for a 4th-round draft pick. If Bean tanks or gets hurt, he may not be able to bring back *any* forward. We're all pretending there's no risk to the "patience" plan, because we're trending upward, but there is a lot of risk. It means being right *a lot*. So far, so good, but the luck has to run out sometime.

 

[My Special Purpose]

Such as?

I'm not asking to antagonize you. I'm genuinely curious as I'm struggling to come up with names that (1) make sense for Carolina to acquire as a player and asset (2) play for an organization that has enough depth to withstand the loss of said player and (3) play for an organization that has a need for what Carolina would have to offer. Nylander in Toronto, Reinhart in Buffalo and Ehlers in Winnipeg stand out in my mind, but only as potential options in future, not the present.

There is literally no way to answer this question and you know it. All I'm saying is that if we identify our four best d-men in two years (Slavin, Bean, Pesce and Faulk), that leaves Hanifin, Fleury, Carrick on the trade block. If we make that common knowledge around the league, offers will come. Nobody thought a lot of guys were tradeable until they got traded. Do you think the Predators expected to trade Shea Weber the day he got traded? Or Seth Jones? Very few guys are actually untouchable if a team wants them badly enough, or if teams match up well enough.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I get your point, I just think you're wrong. You're basing your opinion on "ifs." "If Fleury plays well this season," and "If Bean continues his progression." Well, what if they don't. The odds of all of our guys progressing toward NHL regulars are extremely low. Odds are at least one of our guys' value is at its highest point right now (my choice: Hanifin). If Fleury plays poorly this season, we could be talking about him as a centerpiece for a 4th-round draft pick. If Bean tanks or gets hurt, he may not be able to bring back *any* forward. We're all pretending there's no risk to the "patience" plan, because we're trending upward, but there is a lot of risk. It means being right *a lot*. So far, so good, but the luck has to run out sometime.

But pretending your plan doesn't also base a lot on the very same "ifs" ignores reality as well. "If" we trade Hanifin for a Duchene (or whoever), and "if" Hanifin becomes a good top pairing D this year, and "if" the equivalent forward we trade for falls flat, and "if" Fleury plays poorly this season as you've mentioned, we are not in a good position.

The risk is inherent either way, that's asset management in this sport. Our "luck" could just as easily run out the minute we trade a future top pairing guy for a forward who falls flat, just as it could by waiting too long and watching one of our top young guys flame out. We are going to make a forward for defense trade that we feel we come out on top on. But forcing something in which we don't feel we get the better end of the deal, just to balance out the assets, is shortsighted, because eventually the right deal WILL be there.

 

[Chrispy]

I get your point, I just think you're wrong. You're basing your opinion on "ifs." "If Fleury plays well this season," and "If Bean continues his progression." Well, what if they don't. The odds of all of our guys progressing toward NHL regulars are extremely low. Odds are at least one of our guys' value is at its highest point right now (my choice: Hanifin). If Fleury plays poorly this season, we could be talking about him as a centerpiece for a 4th-round draft pick. If Bean tanks or gets hurt, he may not be able to bring back *any* forward. We're all pretending there's no risk to the "patience" plan, because we're trending upward, but there is a lot of risk. It means being right *a lot*. So far, so good, but the luck has to run out sometime.

They don't need to hit 100%. They need a top 4 and to hit once more to have a trade chip and keep a good top 4. That means Hanifin playing as he did post deadline plus either Fleury or bean or someone else like Martin taking the next step.

With the top 4 stabilized there isn't as much risk in this development plan as with a trade for a currently available forward. Duchene needs to bounce back and be signed. Galchenyuk needs to show he can play center consistently. I'd rather wait for the next forward.

 

[The Faulker 27]

And some people don't think we're Cup contenders...

The evidence is mounting.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

There is literally no way to answer this question and you know it. All I'm saying is that if we identify our four best d-men in two years (Slavin, Bean, Pesce and Faulk), that leaves Hanifin, Fleury, Carrick on the trade block. If we make that common knowledge around the league, offers will come. Nobody thought a lot of guys were tradeable until they got traded. Do you think the Predators expected to trade Shea Weber the day he got traded? Or Seth Jones? Very few guys are actually untouchable if a team wants them badly enough, or if teams match up well enough.

I know it? I honestly thought you were going to suggest making Slavin available for MacKinnon or something to that effect.

The Weber trade was unpredictable for sure, but I don’t think that’s the best example for this situation given that he was swapped for a very comparable player at the same position. That wasn't a need based swap, like the Jones-for-Johansen trade. Speaking of that deal, Jones’ name popped up in the discussion as soon as Johansen’s name did. That wasn’t a real surprise.

Maybe a better example is Larsson, given where that left New Jersey defensively after the deal. However, the caveat there was that Edmonton made an offer New Jersey couldn’t refuse; Hall was on a different tier as an asset compared to Larsson. I feel that the Drouin trade fit the same mold, with Sergachev being the asset of a lower class there. If Carolina is in the position of Edmonton/Tampa in a hypothetical involving Hanifin instead of being in the position of New Jersey/Montreal or going back to the earlier example, Columbus/Nashville, I’m concerned about the quality of return resulting from bring in the weaker negotiating position.