GDT: Carolina @ Calgary: 25th Olympic Anniversary; Cool Runnings Edition

[Finlandia WOAT]

I don't mean luck in him panning out, I mean it in the sense that there was absolutely zero consensus after the top 2 picks in that draft and we're lucky he was still on the board. Skinner VERY easily could have ended up in Columbus, Long Island, or Tampa if someone on their scouting staff liked him enough and did a good enough sell job. IIRC at the time there were a LOT of people saying the concern with Skinner was his size, but that aside from Hall he very well could be the best goal scorer from that draft year.

IIRC, the concern was mainly size and skating (ironically). He was never a speedster, and had trouble blowing past his competition in juniors.

 

[tarheelhockey]

No I mean they're 3-3-3 (typo, my bad) against the Blackhawks, Blues, Avalanche, Wild, Ducks, Sharks, Kings and Coyotes. The playoff teams. Vancouver is not a playoff team at the moment.

Yes, they are.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/standings.htm?season=20132014&type=WC#&navid=nav-stn-conf

The reason Vancouver is in the #2 wildcard position is that they currently win a tiebreaker over the Wild.

If you include the Wild, that adds another 0-1-1 for a total of 3-6-3 against Western teams that are in playoff position.

Would it make everyone happier if they lost to San Jose as expected and got 2 more points from Calgary/Edmonton as expected? On paper, that's what "should" have happened, but the end result is the same.

No, it's not the same. 1-0-2 is not the same as 2-1-0.

I'll say it again: for more than half the season (their last 18 games) they've been playing at a playoff pace. And not just a barely-make-it-only-in-the-Metro playoff pace, 96 points would get them a 5 seed in the East right now. Is it sustainable? Who knows. I'm going with the larger sample size and not worrying about any one game at the moment, though.

By that logic you should be looking at the even larger sample size of 33 games, which has us on an 82-point pace.

The last time a team made the playoffs with 82 points or fewer was in 1997, several years before the introduction of the OT point.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

No, it's not the same. 1-0-2 is not the same as 2-1-0.

It's 99% the same on a West Coast trip. The only scenario in which it's not the same is if we are tied with other teams on the last day of the season. Is that possible? Yes, very much so -- but if we end up in that position, we could just as well bemoan our inability to convert a 0-point game into a 1-point game as our inability to turn a 1-point game into a 2-point game.

Regulation losses are the worst outcome you can have out West. I'm glad we're avoiding them. Sure, I'd love to get the extra point -- but every point counts.

--hank

 

[tarheelhockey]

It's 99% the same on a West Coast trip. The only scenario in which it's not the same is if we are tied with other teams on the last day of the season. Is that possible? Yes, very much so -- but if we end up in that position, we could just as well bemoan our inability to convert a 0-point game into a 1-point game as our inability to turn a 1-point game into a 2-point game.

If it comes down to being tied for 8th, I'm going to bemoan consecutive OTLs in Edmonton and Calgary long before I think about a loss to San Jose.

 

[What the Faulk]

Oh, whoops. I just had them sorted by Division and missed the Wild's games played. Last time I looked thoroughly was after the Sharks win, but obviously games played has changed since then. Either way, we're splitting hairs.

1-0-2/2-1-0 is not the same only from a tiebreaker standpoint and morale. It's 4 points in 3 games against the Sharks, Oilers and Flames no matter how you slice it.

Either way, we're straying from the point. This is sports, and more specifically the 82 game season of the NHL. There are going to be let downs and upsets, beating teams you "should" lose to and losing to teams you "should" beat. To get so emotionally invested in any one game to the extent that many people around here do is ridiculous.

Yeah, over the course of the season they've got 33 in 33, and that's resulted in a playoff spot at the moment. Lately they're playing better no matter how you break it down. The stretch they are on is overall a positive one. This isn't a team built to sprint from start to finish, we knew that. But they're trending in the right direction after a slow start.

 

[Joe McGrath]

The point is you have to beat bad teams if you aren't going to beat good teams. They played 2 bad teams and did not win. When you are a bubble team you can't piss away points like that.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Three-game losing streak and an 82-point pace, sorry if I'm not feeling positive this morning.

 

[Lazyking]

I think like someone else said, division play will be key and who knows after Phoenix, we might have a trade.

 

[What the Faulk]

I think like someone else said, division play will be key and who knows after Phoenix, we might have a trade.

I would be shocked if they didn't. The goaltender situation has to get resolved.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Yeah, over the course of the season they've got 33 in 33, and that's resulted in a playoff spot at the moment. Lately they're playing better no matter how you break it down. The stretch they are on is overall a positive one. This isn't a team built to sprint from start to finish, we knew that. But they're trending in the right direction after a slow start.

Ok, let's say they only need 88 points to get into the playoffs (which was the lowest in recent memory, several years ago).

In order to get to 88 points (and praying they don't need a tiebreaker, which would probably be the case if it comes down to a number that low) they are going to need 55 points in their final 49 games. That means playing at a 92-point pace from now till the end of the season.

Do I think they can maintain a 92-point pace? Yes, if they get their heads out of their rear ends and win games against the likes of the Oilers and Flames. Do I think they can do much BETTER than a 92-point pace based on what they've shown so far? Not really. So the thing they can absolutely not afford to do is continue to push that "pace needed" bar any higher. They need to break this slide in Phoenix, and they need to be of the mentality that they have no more mulligans. Otherwise we're just setting up another edition of "We were THIS close! with Jim and Eric".

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Yeah, over the course of the season they've got 33 in 33, and that's resulted in a playoff spot at the moment. Lately they're playing better no matter how you break it down. The stretch they are on is overall a positive one. This isn't a team built to sprint from start to finish, we knew that. But they're trending in the right direction after a slow start.

And if the season ended today, you'd be right in being happy about being in a playoff spot. But since it doesn't, and since a .500 record isn't going to get you a playoff spot at the end of the season, and since we've seen this team find implausible ways to drop from a playoff spot when they've had a secure hold (let alone the tentative hold they have now), forgive some of us for not being sunshine and lollipops.

Also, how is 3 wins in our past 8 games a positive stretch? Even if we go by points, it's a .500 record. Not exactly something to get excited about.

But more importantly, look how the season has played out since Ward went down:

5 losses followed by 5 games with at least a point
3 losses followed by 3 games with a least a point
2 losses followed by 3 wins followed by 3 losses.

That inconsistency is infuriating. That's not going to get you a playoff spot and it's not going to suck enough to get high enough in a draft

 

[Joe McGrath]

And if the season ended today, you'd be right in being happy about being in a playoff spot. But since it doesn't, and since a .500 record isn't going to get you a playoff spot at the end of the season, and since we've seen this team find implausible ways to drop from a playoff spot when they've had a secure hold (let alone the tentative hold they have now), forgive some of us for not being sunshine and lollipops.

Also, how is 3 wins in our past 8 games a positive stretch? Even if we go by points, it's a .500 record. Not exactly something to get excited about.

But more importantly, look how the season has played out since Ward went down:

5 losses followed by 5 games with at least a point
3 losses followed by 3 games with a least a point
2 losses followed by 3 wins followed by 3 losses.

That inconsistency is infuriating. That's not going to get you a playoff spot and it's not going to suck enough to get high enough in a draft

So uh, Hurricanes hockey?

 

[What the Faulk]

Never did I say that everything is great. In fact, I'm pretty sure I said they need to be better. We've strayed so far from my initial point anyway which is to stop overreacting to every game. Over the first halfish of the season, they're in a playoff spot. Over the second halfish of that, they're playing at a playoff pace. Theyre in a playoff spot and trending upwards and all anyone wants to do is ***** about a couple OTLs across the continent. The last 3 games represent 4 percent of the season. If you keep living and dying on every 3 game stretch, you're going to drive yourself crazy. Some already have.

 

[bleedgreen]

Hell that's whalers hockey. We are annoyingly consistent.

 

[Lazyking]

Never did I say that everything is great. In fact, I'm pretty sure I said they need to be better. We've strayed so far from my initial point anyway which is to stop overreacting to every game. Over the first halfish of the season, they're in a playoff spot. Over the second halfish of that, they're playing at a playoff pace. Theyre in a playoff spot and trending upwards and all anyone wants to do is ***** about a couple OTLs across the continent. The last 3 games represent 4 percent of the season. If you keep living and dying on every 3 game stretch, you're going to drive yourself crazy. Some already have.

Agreed.. See where we are now and stop projecting, take each game as it comes.

I'm not gonna drive myself crazy when its possible that we could still play like this after 60 games and STILL be a playoff spot.

Or we could play much better and we could run away with a playoff spot..

For the record, I don't think this team is really that good..bubble team at best and that's where they are.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I realize inconsistency is frustrating, but that's the definition of a bubble team (which this team is). They aren't talented/skilled enough, they aren't deep enough, and their goaltending has been inconsistent.

I get that it's infuriating, but given the make-up of this team, I'm not sure why anyone is surprised.

 

[Joe McGrath]

I realize inconsistency is frustrating, but that's the definition of a bubble team (which this team is). They aren't talented/skilled enough, they aren't deep enough, and their goaltending has been inconsistent.

I get that it's infuriating, but given the make-up of this team, I'm not sure why anyone is surprised.

I don't think anyone is surprised. Doesn't make it any less frustrating though. Especially when you've followed a team for almost 30 years and it's the same old same old. I think I'm mostly bitter because I missed the 3 wins while I was away and came back to stay up late to watch 3 losses.

 

[Ole Gil]

A win in Phoenix would be 4pts in 4 games on this part of the road trip, and 4-1-2 on this block of the schedule.

The real game in the NHL is Wins vs. Regulation losses. If the win streaks are filled with Wins, and the losing streaks are filled with OTL's, that's going to be just fine.

The only serious hiccup in the season was that stretch when Peters took over and lost 5 straight in regulation. The rest of the season has been a steady gain in the right direction. Even with 'mixed' results like lately, Wins + OTL's = playoffs.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

The problem is that 5 straight losses put them in a hole that they haven't been good enough consistently enough to dig themselves out of.

January is full of 5 game segments that could theoretically fix that. But for that to happen, they need to beat the bad teams they're supposed to beat. Not lose in OT, but win in regulation.

 

[What the Faulk]

A playoff spot is an odd thing to consider a hole.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

A playoff spot is an odd thing to consider a hole.

A .500 record is an odd thing to consider a success

 

[What the Faulk]

I'd rather have a point 500 record and a playoff spot than win 75% of my games and not.

Also, don't put words in my mouth. There's a difference in saying "don't panic" and "all is well"

 

[Ole Gil]

The problem is that 5 straight losses put them in a hole that they haven't been good enough consistently enough to dig themselves out of.

January is full of 5 game segments that could theoretically fix that. But for that to happen, they need to beat the bad teams they're supposed to beat. Not lose in OT, but win in regulation.

They did dig themselves out of it. And wins are wins, and losses are losses. Beating Was/SJ and OTL'ing Cal/Edm is a weird way to go about it, but it doesn't really matter outside of wild card competition considerations.

I'll say 'don't panic, all is well.' The team (of late) usually wins when they play well, and OTL's when playing poorly. That's good. Until the next thing goes wrong, this team should be racking up points for the next couple weeks.

 

[w e l o s t b o y s]

What's concerning is that Jeff Skinner is firing on all cylinders. Eric Staal has a ton of points in the last dozen games. Peters is providing great goaltending right now, and Ward, adequate. They're giving the team a chance to win. Jordan Staal is playing amazing defensive hockey right now.

And it's still not enough.

Don't really agree

So far this season how many guys would you say are having a good season? Maybe I had higher expectations for a lot of our players but I would say a lot of our team is under performing and we're still in the race.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Yes, they're in a playoff spot now. Having a 2 point lead over three different teams (two with a game on hand) with 50 games left doesnt inspire a lot of confidence that they'll keep it though.

Wasn't it not too long ago that they had a solid grip on the division lead in early Feb, won 13 of their last 22 games and still managed to miss the playoffs?