Carabao Cup 21/22

[Savant]

LFC away to a PL team. City home to Wycombe. Sounds about right. Just like I say every year, No conspiracy just ridiculous luck.

 

[hatterson]

Home v Away

QPR v Everton
Preston v Cheltenham
United v West Ham
Fulham v Leeds
Brentford v Oldham
Watford v Stoke
Chelsea v Aston Villa
Wigan v Sunderland
Norwich v Liverpool
Burnley v Rochdale
Arsenal v AFC Wimbledon
Sheffield v Southampton
City v Wycombe
Millwall v Leicester
Wolves v Spurs
Brighton v Swansea

 

[hatterson]

 

[Savant]

Liverpool has been drawn against a PL team in 2/3 of domestic cups draws under Jurgen Klopp

 

[bluesfan94]

Liverpool has been drawn against a PL team in 2/3 of domestic cups draws under Jurgen Klopp

That probably isn't that impressive given how that's more likely to happen the longer clubs make it in cup competitions. For example, Arsenal has been drawn against a PL team in 3/4 domestic cup draws under Arteta.

 

[TheMoreYouKnow]

City always seem to get an easy ride in these competitions. Can't necessarily back that up with facts, but that's how it feels.

 

[East Coast Bias]

LFC away to a PL team. City home to Wycombe. Sounds about right. Just like I say every year, No conspiracy just ridiculous luck.

Could be worse. United, Chelsea, Spurs all have far harder draws. City does always get non PL teams though.

 

[bluesfan94]

Liverpool has been drawn against a PL team in 2/3 of domestic cups draws under Jurgen Klopp

FWIW, since Klopp came to Liverpool, City has had 33/54 (61%) PL opponents. Admittedly, some of these aren't technically draws because they met in finals, but i'm lazy. I will say that from the 19/20 season to today, they've drawn only 11/21 (52.4%) PL opponents.

 

[Savant]

City always seem to get an easy ride in these competitions. Can't necessarily back that up with facts, but that's how it feels.

Oh it’s very easy to back it up. Just look at the history.

 

[Savant]

FWIW, since Klopp came to Liverpool, City has had 33/54 (61%) PL opponents. Admittedly, some of these aren't technically draws because they met in finals, but i'm lazy. I will say that from the 19/20 season to today, they've drawn only 11/21 (52.4%) PL opponents.

It’s flawed data though. City faces PL teams later in the competition when the non-PL teams are already eliminated. So they are getting PL teams when they can only draw against PL teams.

Liverpool is 66% because it is 18/27. City has played twice as many games because they get to knock out the minnows.

 

[bluesfan94]

It’s flawed data though. City faces PL teams later in the competition when the non-PL teams are already eliminated. So they are getting PL teams when they can only draw against PL teams.

Okay, sure, but that's the same with Liverpool. I'm not going to go through the data to suss out the odds of picking a PL team during each draw and how they compare, especially because then you have to get down to the order in which teams are picked, as if City were left in the pot with all but one PL team, it would be much more unlikely for them to draw that team compared to if it's only one PL team.

 

[Savant]

Okay, sure, but that's the same with Liverpool. I'm not going to go through the data to suss out the odds of picking a PL team during each draw and how they compare, especially because then you have to get down to the order in which teams are picked, as if City were left in the pot with all but one PL team, it would be much more unlikely for them to draw that team compared to if it's only one PL team.

No it’s more simple than that. If 18 PL teams were in the pot of 32 today and a team can’t draw itself, 17/31 = roughly 55% chance of getting a PL team at round of 32. So conservatively City keep winning a weighted coin flip against them every year at this stage. Not going to keep arguing about this if you can’t see the obvious though.

 

[robertmac43]

Arsenal get an easy draw and Potter gets a date with his old club.

 

[bluesfan94]

It’s flawed data though. City faces PL teams later in the competition when the non-PL teams are already eliminated. So they are getting PL teams when they can only draw against PL teams.

Liverpool is 66% because it is 18/27. City has played twice as many games because they get to knock out the minnows.

Also because Liverpool went out to the relative minnows. In their first couple years, Liverpool was eliminated by West Ham (7th - PL), Wolverhampton (CH), Southampton (8th - PL), West Brom (20th - PL), and Leicester (9th - PL). They were also nearly eliminated by Exeter City (L2), Carlisle United (L2), Stoke City (9th - PL), and Plymouth Argyle (L1). After the 15/16 EFL Cup final, it wasn't until 2018's EFL Cup where Klopp was eliminated by a team that finished 6th or better in the PL.

Let's go year by year to where a team was eliminated.
15/16 FA Cup - Liverpool was eliminated by West Ham in the 4th Round having faced 1/2 PL teams. City through the 4th Round faced 2/2.
15/16 EFL Cup - Liverpool lost to City in the final; Liverpool played 4/4 PL teams, City was 3/4
16/17 FA Cup - Liverpool lost to Championship side Wolves in the 4th Round having never played a PL team; City had played 2/2
16/17 EFL - City lost in the 4th Round to United (2/2 PL); Liverpool had played 1/3 PL teams (and would go on to play another CH side before losing to So'ton in the semis).
17/18 FA Cup - Liverpool lost in the 4th round to a West Brom side that would get relegated (2/2 PL); City was 1/2 PL sides there.
17/18 EFL - Each played 1/1 PL sides when Liverpool went out to Leicester in the 3rd round.
18/19 FA/EFL Cup - Liverpool lost both their opening round matches to Wolves and United; City had played no PL teams at the point
19/20 FA - Liverpool went out in the 5th Round (2/3 PL); City (0/3 PL)
19/20 EFL - Liverpool (2/3); City (1/3)
20/21 FA - Liverpool (2/2); City (0/2)
20/21 EFL - LIverpool (1/2); City (1/2)

In total that's 18/26 PL teams for Liverpool (69%) vs. 13/25 for City (52%). Of course, if you only go until 18/19, that's 11/16 for Pool (68.75%) to 11/15 for City (73.3%). To the extent it's a conspiracy, it's lasted all of two years, and if you cherry pick 2 years (say, Klopp's first two years), you can make it look like Pool was the beneficiary (6/11 Pool; 9/10 City).

 

[bluesfan94]

No it’s more simple than that. If 18 PL teams were in the pot of 32 today and a team can’t draw itself, 17/31 = roughly 55% chance of getting a PL team at round of 32. So conservatively City keep winning a weighted coin flip against them every year at this stage. Not going to keep arguing about this if you can’t see the obvious though.

Right but that's not how a draw actually works, because every draw affects the odds of the next pick.

 

[Live in the Now]

We usually throw these cups anyway so who gives a f***.

 

[Savant]

We usually throw these cups anyway so who gives a f***.

Kaide Gordon and Connor Bradley are both starting. James Balagizi (blue chip prospect) and Tyler Morton are on the bench

 

[Live in the Now]

Taki power already lol.

 

[Chimaera]

Konate is a fricking unit. Physically bossing these dudes

 

[Live in the Now]

Konate is a fricking unit. Physically bossing these dudes

Fast too. I was on the bandwagon to sign him for over three years so it's funny it actually happened. Going to be hard to beat this guy in a physical battle unless he trips and falls down.

 

[Chimaera]

Yeah, whenever he and Virgil play, I can’t imagine it’s fun to handle free kicks.

 

[Brunkmeister]

City go full power offensively but never heard of any of the players they have in that backline. Not surprised they conceded already.

 

[Prntscrn]

Jones and Ox should switch position to get Jones higer up the pitch. Sadly Ox seems to be done as a creative player, might aswell try him in a slightly more destructive role to backup Fabinho whenever he can't play

 

[Live in the Now]

Bradley has to learn you can't challenge somebody like that in the box.

 

[Burner Account]

So in addition to keeping the ball out of the net Kelleher is very decisive. Sometimes you have to make a decision and figure out later if it was right or not.