Post-Game Talk: Caps vs Flames Oct 23

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Yo I went golfing, got a point tho lol sick

I was at a beer fest and checked the score after the first period and said “Hey I picked a great day to drink beer outside.” Imagine my surprise and delight when I saw they got a point AND that Ovi scored.

 

[txpd]

It’s not a possession game. In OT I want guys who either hold the puck well (he doesn’t) or who are quick. What’s his game? Good defender and a little of everything offensively but nothing he particularly excels at.

In OT as good as your defense may be you will eventually wear down if you don’t have much possession.

Wilson over the last 3 seasons is in the top 6 among forwards for OT TOI. They must be looking for something different

 

[Capsman]

What are you talking about? When he curled off at the blueline? He did that because his linemates were changing and he was about to change so OT1 could get on the ice.

It was before that. He had the puck on the right and threw a soft, bizarre shot or pass that made no sense, lost possession. We can’t be giving away possession for nothing in OT.

 

[max21]

I was at a beer fest and checked the score after the first period and said “Hey I picked a great day to drink beer outside.” Imagine my surprise and delight when I saw they got a point AND that Ovi scored.

Seriously, I don’t usually check my phone when I golf I and was legit stoked when I saw it.

 

[Ovie's Neighbor]

The short handed goals against has gotten pretty annoying these past couple of years

 

[Ovie's Neighbor]

Not sure I like Kuzy forechecking the goalie there. Otherwise, great game for him.

It was a horrible decision. Just giving up an automatic 3 on 2. He needs to be smarter.

 

[Melkor]

Sammy was not shaky and he certainly was not out of shape! Don't be CNN and create some false narrative! The OT goal was a bit of bad luck bounce on a good save by Sammy(slight argument he could have squeezed his glove hand in tight to his ribs). VV was shaky in that 1st period. He looked tentative facing the Flames aggressive attack. The team didn't play well in the 1st, but that is what good goaltending is for. VV didn't look ready for the game, as he was fighting pucks and giving up horrible rebounds(Flames PP goal was a good example). Sammy was a lot better with his rebound control than VV, and he used his bigger size to his advantage as the Flames had to adjust their shots with Sammy in net.

I don't know what game were you watching, the only bad goal Vanecek allowed was the first one. Samsonov literally folded the first moment the team needed a real big save from him this afternoon. You're obviously biased towards Samsonov

 

[Rayquaza64]

I don't know what game were you watching, the only bad goal Vanecek allowed was the first one. Samsonov literally folded the first moment the team needed a real big save from him this afternoon. You're obviously biased towards Samsonov

LMAOOOOOOOOOOOO

 

[SherVaughn30]

I don't know what game were you watching, the only bad goal Vanecek allowed was the first one. Samsonov literally folded the first moment the team needed a real big save from him this afternoon. You're obviously biased towards Samsonov

Wrong again. I'm still highly critical of Samsonov, but today was not that day. If you did some real homework, check my history comments, you would see I have been strongly critical and disappointed in Samsonov. Not sure how you could assess Sammy folded, when he basically shut the door until half way into OT? It's easy to say VV was bad on the 1st goal(inexcusable rebound) and it was also easy to say he had no chance on 2nd/3rd goals. His technique was poor on all 3(I'll be glad to explain why if you ask), especially when you compare this start to his previous 3. His reads and angles were rookie year like. VV was playing too tentative as the Flames fast attacking fore-check(they lead the league in Shots For per game) was making him feel uneasy.

Overall VV was a F grade today and Sammy was an A-(the minus was I would have liked to see him trap that puck with his glove against his ribs in OT).

 

[SherVaughn30]

The short handed goals against has gotten pretty annoying these past couple of years

It's just been very annoying this early in the season. Even weaker PK's are easily figuring out how to shut down the Caps PP. First you keep aggressive pressure near the Caps net to eliminate the lazy slingshot. Then you stack up your own blue line forcing the Caps to either make a bad pass attempt to create a o-zone entry or you force them to dump the puck(which the Caps refuse to do so). I will also add, even when they do enter the zone with the puck or win the opening PP face-off(very rare), they move their feet too slow and attempt lazy passes. There is no killer instinct with their PP. It just comes across as being lazy and not wanting to put in the hard work. Once OV's signature one-timer from the left circle was neutralized by him being shadowed, then the Oshie bumper spot being shadowed as well, the Caps PP has been completely broken down. Forsythe is just a hack PP coach that was riding the coat tails of OV blasting one-timer goals from his office! He's completely clueless to making actual adjustments for the players to execute.

 

[Ridley Simon]

If this is what McMichael is going to bring on even a semi-consistent basis I don't see the logic in sending him back to Hershey when Backstrom returns. Put him on the wing if need be, but he's been an effective two-way player so far. The stats have yet to update after today's game, but he's behind only Kuznetsov in terms of 5v5 ixG/60, and he's currently rocking an 85% on-ice xGF% (again, subject to change after today's game). He's had a ton of dangerous looks and doesn't look out of place, unlike Lapierre who appeared to be a bit overmatched at this point in his career.

It's pretty easy to make the case that McMichael is outplaying Sheary, Sprong, and Mantha so far in terms of wingers. So why not breed a healthy competition between them when Backstrom returns?

I’ve made my feelings pretty obvious on this piece, unless you blocked me.

CMM plays, Sheary sits, when Backstrom comes back.

 

[Roshi]

I blame you for this.

why?

WHY?????

Maybe someday ill use my powers to something great..

 

[Ridley Simon]

Maybe someday ill use my powers to something great..

I know. Seriously man. Come on!

 

[g00n]

It was before that. He had the puck on the right and threw a soft, bizarre shot or pass that made no sense, lost possession. We can’t be giving away possession for nothing in OT.

Ok I just got a chance to go back and look at the video. I think you're talking about 3:27 left in OT. Watch it again. Wilson gains the o-zone and Dowd is crashing the net. Wilson is trying to either get a shot or pass to the net or Dowd and the puck is deflected wide by Tanav.

So there you go.

 

[twabby]

I’ve made my feelings pretty obvious on this piece, unless you blocked me.

CMM plays, Sheary sits, when Backstrom comes back.

Just call me Devan Dubnyk, because I don't block anything!

 

[twabby]

Now that the stats have updated, here's Connor McMichael's season so far:

ixG/60: 2.15 (5th out of 381 qualified forwards in the NHL)
SOG/60: 15.85 (10th)
xG Differential/60: 3.22 (2nd)

Of course we'd like to see him score, and the numbers above will certain regress to more reasonable numbers, but this is about as good of a start as one could have asked for.

 

[txpd]

Now that the stats have updated, here's Connor McMichael's season so far:

ixG/60: 2.15 (5th out of 381 qualified forwards in the NHL)
SOG/60: 15.85 (10th)
xG Differential/60: 3.22 (2nd)

Of course we'd like to see him score, and the numbers above will certain regress to more reasonable numbers, but this is about as good of a start as one could have asked for.

What does expected goals for mean when you never score any goals for? Lets be even handed with the stats. Only Sprong is playing less than he is. Oshie and Sheary who are tasked with protecting him are doing absolutelty nothing offensively as a result. By offensively I mean goals and assists on the scoresheet.

Very likely because of outstanding coaching putting the kid in position to succeed and not to hurt the team with safe usage and top defensive veteran wingers with him his underlying stats look good. Do you honestly think that if he was being used like Eller has been and that with expectations of needing his line to produce goals on the board that his xGF would look like that? It looks more like propaganda to me.

 

[twabby]

What does expected goals for mean when you never score any goals for? Lets be even handed with the stats. Only Sprong is playing less than he is. Oshie and Sheary who are tasked with protecting him are doing absolutelty nothing offensively as a result. By offensively I mean goals and assists on the scoresheet.

Very likely because of outstanding coaching putting the kid in position to succeed and not to hurt the team with safe usage and top defensive veteran wingers with him his underlying stats look good. Do you honestly think that if he was being used like Eller has been and that with expectations of needing his line to produce goals on the board that his xGF would look like that? It looks more like propaganda to me.

Expected goals measure the number and quality of chances. He’s had a lot of quality chances. His line has controlled 84% of the expected goals. The only line that is better in the NHL is the Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak line. That’s a good line. It’s good to be in the company of that line. It won’t continue to be this good, but for now it’s very good.

If you want to say he is “never scoring” then that’s your prerogative. It’s technically true. It’s disingenuous, some might even say it’s propaganda (not me, however), but it’s technically true. He has never scored in his illustrious ~35 minute NHL career.

 

[Baszie]

Expected goals measure the number and quality of chances. He’s had a lot of quality chances. His line has controlled 84% of the expected goals. The only line that is better in the NHL is the Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak line. That’s a good line. It’s good to be in the company of that line. It won’t continue to be this good, but for now it’s very good.

If you want to say he is “never scoring” then that’s your prerogative. It’s technically true. It’s disingenuous, some might even say it’s propaganda (not me, however), but it’s technically true. He has never scored in his illustrious ~35 minute NHL career.

The only problem with this logic is that Ovi sucks and Hagelin is way better.

 

[Langway]

McMichael does need to produce if he's going to jump Sheary or Sprong. More likely it'd be Sprong since Sheary PKs some. McMichael has done well enough to stay in the lineup and likely help Lapierre get sent back to junior eventually. More than that it's premature to say. Based on the eye test I'm not sure he's played at a level to supplant anyone. Were he to manage higher TOI I'd start to wonder. I doubt he'll become a trusted defensive player until he gains yet more strength and technique against NHLers so

I do wonder about Eller. If they manage to re-sign Dowd perhaps they trade him for futures to open up a spot for the two youts and restructure. He needs to make himself irreplaceable at least.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Expected goals measure the number and quality of chances. He’s had a lot of quality chances. His line has controlled 84% of the expected goals. The only line that is better in the NHL is the Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak line. That’s a good line. It’s good to be in the company of that line. It won’t continue to be this good, but for now it’s very good.

If you want to say he is “never scoring” then that’s your prerogative. It’s technically true. It’s disingenuous, some might even say it’s propaganda (not me, however), but it’s technically true. He has never scored in his illustrious ~35 minute NHL career.

Eh, when the actuals are so wildly different from the expected, I get skeptical. xGF systematically underrates certain players (Ovechkin and Kane) while accurately rating others.

Part of why McMichael hasn't scored is because he hasn't been able to finish a play despite being given some good chances by Oshie and yesterday Ovie gave him a real nice look (although that may have been on the PP). So, great job setting things up or getting set up I guess, but it doesn't do the team any good if you can't finish.

 

[Midnight Judges]

McMichael does need to produce if he's going to jump Sheary or Sprong. More likely it'd be Sprong since Sheary PKs some. McMichael has done well enough to stay in the lineup and likely help Lapierre get sent back to junior eventually. More than that it's premature to say. Based on the eye test I'm not sure he's played at a level to supplant anyone. Were he to manage higher TOI I'd start to wonder. I doubt he'll become a trusted defensive player until he gains yet more strength and technique against NHLers so

I do wonder about Eller. If they manage to re-sign Dowd perhaps they trade him for futures to open up a spot for the two youts and restructure. He needs to make himself irreplaceable at least.

Couldn't they put Dowd on the wing or something? realize they're all centers but Dowd is a really useful 4th liner and he likely remains on a very reasonable contract. IMO he's like one of those multi-use Beagle types who are quality depth.

 

[txpd]

Couldn't they put Dowd on the wing or something? realize they're all centers but Dowd is a really useful 4th liner and he likely remains on a very reasonable contract. IMO he's like one of those multi-use Beagle types who are quality depth.

If Dowd scores 12-15 goals in a full season to back up his 11 in 56 last season and his 56% faceoff number, I dont think you would like his next contract. IIRC Beagle's last Caps contract drew heavy fire.

Putting him on the wing would defeat his value.

 

[twabby]

The only problem with this logic is that Ovi sucks and Hagelin is way better.

Eh, when the actuals are so wildly different from the expected, I get skeptical. xGF systematically underrates certain players (Ovechkin and Kane) while accurately rating others.

Part of why McMichael hasn't scored is because he hasn't been able to finish a play despite being given some good chances by Oshie and yesterday Ovie gave him a real nice look (although that may have been on the PP). So, great job setting things up or getting set up I guess, but it doesn't do the team any good if you can't finish.

I'll respond to both of these since they bring up similar points.

Yes, both of you are correct. xG completely ignores finishing talent, which is why Ovechkin is constantly underrated by this model and Hagelin is overrated. The former is one of the best finishers in the NHL, while the latter is one of the worst.

However my response to this would be that unless we know for sure that McMichael is a poor finisher in general, which goes against what he has shown at every level of his career so far, then it's premature to say his results have been anything but good simply because he hasn't potted a goal in 3 games. ixG is a much better predictor of future goal scoring than actual goal-scoring when the sample size is so small:

Expected Goals are a better predictor of future scoring than Corsi, Goals

Spoiler: Predicting future goals at the Player Level

Disclaimer: the smallest sample size taken here is 10 games, and McMichael has only played in 3 games. So it's possible 3 games of data doesn't predict much of anything even if 10 games does. However, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that a 3 game sample of ixG is much more relevant than a 3 game sample of iGF, given that goal scoring is subject to incredible amounts of variance.

Indeed, the results above make intuitive sense. As the sample becomes larger and larger, ixG isn't quite as strong. And I imagine that in a very large sample (say, several seasons) iGF is a much better predictor of future goal scoring since finishing talent becomes more apparent.

 

[zappa4ever]

welp,
1 shitty period
+
1 great period
+
1 mediocre-at-best period
=
OTL

seems about right

games M/W/F coming up against middling teams, we'll see if they get back to great efforts from the start