Post-Game Talk: Caps @ Sens 730pm

[ovikovy817]

-Caps get a PP
-Sens fans boo Ovechkin every time he touches the puck
-Ovechkin switches with Orlov
-Sens fans now boo Orlov instead

Stupid Sens fans

I always wanted to post, what I'll write under, since many many years.

I'm sorry, NA fans (all teams), but I found your way to support a team recurring.
"Let's go team"
"booing the opponent"
"chanting the goalie's name"

And I'm very happy that the Caps fans don't do this stuff (booing, chanting the goalies name). Well, in fact they've done it twice this year, but one was for good reason, (Mason but he has history of being very bad @ verizon center), and the first one I don't even remember which goalie it was.

I understand that you have another way to support, you were "raised" like this, if I may say so. And the public is different (NHL fans, soccer fans)
But when someone who's used to the european soccer (or even certain basket and hockey) teams and their fans, it's a little bit annoying

If someone is new to hockey, watching Ottawa @ Pittsburgh game, he certainly will here "Let's Go Pens" and maybe be confused in front of his TV "why are they chanting Let's Go Sens"?

 

[Sam Spade]

It was a nice run

It was a great run. 14 games in a row with a point. Amazing run.

Outside of CBus's streak I wonder who has come close to that this season?

 

[Langway]

Im looking forward to all the "looking at the corsi numbers I knew this was coming" posts

Welp...

 

[sycamore]

At least we are not peaking at the wrong time. SAY NO TO THE PEAK!

 

[BobRouse]

Welp...

Small sample size but I'm going to put this out there....Carlson>Chorney

 

[twabby]

Welp...

It's almost as if breaking up the two defensive pairs that have worked just to fit Alzner in a "shutdown" role has been a big mistake!

Here's another Tweet showing how good the 9-2 and 44-88 pairs were compared to other ones the Capitals have used. It really makes no sense to keep sheltering Schmidt when he has shown the ability to carry the play.

Small sample size but I'm going to put this out there....Carlson>Chorney

That should account for some of it, but not nearly all of the ~10% dropoff. There is no need to break up 9-2 and 44-88 just so Alzner has a spot in the top 4.

 

[Stewie G]

I imagine the Caps high shooting percentage when the game is close, especially early, is making that a bit more lopsided than one would typically expect from those types of numbers. I don't know what is considered "close", but they have likely spent a lot of time outside that zone.

Edit: That is based on my casual observation. Perhaps their shooting percentage hasn't been as good as I perceived it to be.

 

[Langway]

Small sample size but I'm going to put this out there....Carlson>Chorney

I wonder if Lewington isn't also >Chorney, albeit with some uncertainty involved. Lewington has been sidelined lately, though. Obviously that's been a factor along with having the lead mostly and the pairings could also be put together to focus less on balance and more on quality at the top-end. But they also need much more consistency from the first and four lines. JR broke down individual CF% over that span and it mostly reflects what's been the case all year: their possession game up front is mostly carried on a consistent basis by the second and third lines. Can you go deep with a top line that doesn't tilt the ice?

 

[BobRouse]

I wonder if Lewington isn't also >Chorney, albeit with some uncertainty involved. Lewington has been sidelined lately, though. Obviously that's been a factor along with having the lead mostly and the pairings could also be put together to focus less on balance and more on quality at the top-end. But they also need much more consistency from the first and four lines. JR broke down individual CF% over that span and it mostly reflects what's been the case all year: their possession game up front is mostly carried on a consistent basis by the second and third lines. Can you go deep with a top line that doesn't really tilt the ice?

I think Carlson>>>his replacement in the lineup regardless of who we currently have to fill it

I'm not worried about the forward lines at all.

The D? Yeah there is some concern there as there is a sharp drop off after the 6th spot. Carlson and Niskanen are absolutely indispensable on top of that

 

[twabby]

But they also need much more consistency from the first and four lines. JR broke down individual CF% over that span and it mostly reflects what's been the case all year: their possession game up front is mostly carried on a consistent basis by the second and third lines. Can you go deep with a top line that doesn't tilt the ice?

Not really sure what they can do about their 4th line other than add at the TDL, but if you flip Backstrom and Kuznetsov you have a top 6 that has performed great over the past two seasons. I get why they haven't made the change (the top line and Kuznetsov have been scoring), but when the goals dry up and the lack of possession is more noticeable, I hope Trotz remembers that 8-92-77 and 90-19-14 have been two of their best forward lines in recent memory.

 

[Raikkonen]

But they also need much more consistency from the first and four lines. JR broke down individual CF% over that span and it mostly reflects what's been the case all year: their possession game up front is mostly carried on a consistent basis by the second and third lines. Can you go deep with a top line that doesn't tilt the ice?

Is that the same line that is bound to be paid about 22,5M next 4-5 years?

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

I wonder if Lewington isn't also >Chorney, albeit with some uncertainty involved. Lewington has been sidelined lately, though. Obviously that's been a factor along with having the lead mostly and the pairings could also be put together to focus less on balance and more on quality at the top-end. But they also need much more consistency from the first and four lines. JR broke down individual CF% over that span and it mostly reflects what's been the case all year: their possession game up front is mostly carried on a consistent basis by the second and third lines. Can you go deep with a top line that doesn't tilt the ice?

Isn't that how the Pens won the Cup last year? The Crosby and Malkin lines were neutral, at best, if I recall correctly.

 

[Revelation]

Carlson is objectively not indispensable. They missed him for half of last year and put up one of the best seasons in history. They're missing him now and still looking dominant as hell, trap game notwithstanding.

Take out an indispensable player and it becomes very noticeable instantly. Like Mike Green when not one other soul on defense knew how to move the ****ing puck. Or Backstrom when he was concussed and we were counting the days for him to get back because the team looked like they stepped on the ice for the first time.

 

[Langway]

Isn't that how the Pens won the Cup last year? The Crosby and Malkin lines were neutral, at best, if I recall correctly.

They weren't neutral from a possession standpoint, though. Then again, neither was Washington's top line in the playoffs. We'll see if that happens again. I have my doubts given the level Ovechkin typically plays at these days and some of the very real limitations 19 and 77 have from an explosiveness standpoint. 8's play away from the puck remains pretty bad and that's the most glaring aspect of it all IMO. It's less glaring than it was under Oates I guess but it's still pitiful. It doesn't matter who his center is if he giving a half-hearted effort to regain pucks.

Without Carlson they have no PPQB. Niskanen is certainly not it. Neither is Orlov. Carlson isn't ideal when it comes to hitting 8's wheelhouse at times but he's still the superior option. We can make all sorts of arguments backing dismantling while still being a pretty good regular season team. That doesn't mean it should be their operating logic.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Carlson is objectively not indispensable. They missed him for half of last year and put up one of the best seasons in history. They're missing him now and still looking dominant as hell, trap game notwithstanding.

Take out an indispensable player and it becomes very noticeable instantly. Like Mike Green when not one other soul on defense knew how to move the ****ing puck. Or Backstrom when he was concussed and we were counting the days for him to get back because the team looked like they stepped on the ice for the first time.

The Caps made the playoffs that year with Matty Purrutu serving as 1C for 40 games. They squeaked in as an 8 seed and upset the Bruins. Just sayin'.

 

[Hivemind]

Without Carlson they have no PPQB. Niskanen is certainly not it. Neither is Orlov. Carlson isn't ideal when it comes to hitting 8's wheelhouse at times but he's still the superior option. We can make all sorts of arguments backing dismantling while still being a pretty good regular season team. That doesn't mean it should be their operating logic.

This is my biggest concern with losing Carlson right now. With the way Niskanen is scoring at even strength this year, he's clearly the superior even strength option. However, that hasn't translated into PP success, where Niskanen has struggled.

The irony here is that Connor Carrick may have been a good salve for this PP depth issues, although Winnik's play and the freed cap space are hard to be mad about (although I still wish they had used the cap space they freed up last year on last year's team).

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Small sample size but I'm going to put this out there....Carlson>Chorney

That's outrageous.

 

[BobRouse]

That's outrageous.

Not nearly as outrageous as Bobby Ryan's contract, Pageau's haircut, Guy Boucher's villainy, Karlsson's embellishments or Kyle Turris' d'baggery

 

[Revelation]

The Caps made the playoffs that year with Matty Purrutu serving as 1C for 40 games. They squeaked in as an 8 seed and upset the Bruins. Just sayin'.

They did but it was painful to watch. Not even the Hunterhockey part but just the general ineptness at center. They haven't been painful to watch without Carlson either of the last 2 years.

He's a good D but the team is built in a way where he's more of a guy giving you lots of quality TOI than a lynchpin. Green was an unrepentant lackadaisical trainwreck defensively but he could do things no one else on the team could that were crucial - getting it to Ovechkin's wheelhouse on the PP, skating the puck up the ice, taking advantage of Ovechkin/Backstrom/Semin disrupting coverage/pressing offensively to score tons of goals himself.

 

[RandyHolt]

Is there any reason to think our drop in corsi for is related to our massive scoring outburst in the time Carslon has been out/limping? Say, we go up 5 and coast after that.

Is the opposition coach telling his guys they did great after losing 6-1 because they Corsi dominated?

I assume advanced stats somehow factor in blowouts or if they don't shouldn't they? We can say its all unsustainable, but goal runs like this are not luck. Barry made system changes that slaughtered all teams... if there is ever a time to not worry about advanced stats for a week, this has to be up there.

Whatevs. This team can survive without Carlson and any player. Top teams can deal with injuries. Great systems that fit the players can do that. I just wish Bowey was healthy.

 

[BobRouse]

RH,

I think that Corsi was score adjusted...so basically it counts corsi events only when the score is tied or one team is up by only 1.

Its still a tiny sample size. None of these games were close corsi wise for very long. Even last night Ottawa had a 2 goal lead 4 minutes in...

In St Louis and vs Carolina there may have been a total of 1 period each where score adj corsi came into play

 

[AtNightWeFly]

Not nearly as outrageous as Bobby Ryan's contract, Pageau's haircut, Guy Boucher's villainy, Karlsson's embellishments or Kyle Turris' d'baggery

Tell me more about this haircut.


I rag on Carlson when he's on the ice and miss him when he's not. He's frustrating as hell.

 

[twabby]

I really hope they don't rush Carlson back from injury like they did last season. He's too important to their success this postseason to risk re-injury when the team is plenty good to keep winning regular season games without him. The coaches need to really think about optimizing their decisions with Carlson out of the lineup because right now the general downward trend in possession is disturbing. Maybe the dip in play is due to fatigue, but we should find out shortly after this weekend when the team will get an extended period of rest.

 

[BobRouse]

Tell me more about this haircut.


I rag on Carlson when he's on the ice and miss him when he's not. He's frustrating as hell.

After the scrap vs Ovie they showed him in the box without his helmet. Looked kinda goofy to me. Almost like a mowhawk.

Carlson is one of those "you never know what you have til its gone" type guys. We take him for granted.

 

[Hivemind]

I assume advanced stats somehow factor in blowouts or if they don't shouldn't they? We can say its all unsustainable, but goal runs like this are not luck. Barry made system changes that slaughtered all teams... if there is ever a time to not worry about advanced stats for a week, this has to be up there.

You can look up "score adjusted," "venue adjusted," and all sorts of other "adjusted" Corsi that attempt to control for factors that influence shot counts.