Post-Game Talk: Caps @ Sens 730pm

[Hivemind]

I think that Corsi was score adjusted...so basically it counts corsi events only when the score is tied or one team is up by only 1.

What you described isn't "adjusted" Corsi, but rather a "5-on-5 close" score situation. Most of the hockey analytics sites will carry both of those options.

 

[Coldplay619]

9-2
44-88
27-4

for the love of god trotz

 

[twabby]

9-2
44-88
27-4

for the love of god trotz

I'd even be open to:

9-2
27-88 ("shutdown" pairing)
44-4

But yes please at least reunite the pairings that were working. No one would be in favor of breaking up forward lines that were clicking, why do the same with defensive pairings?

 

[RandyHolt]

You can look up "score adjusted," "venue adjusted," and all sorts of other "adjusted" Corsi that attempt to control for factors that influence shot counts.

Thanks. I don't think I will get his answered anywhere but here....

Do the advanced stats state that games we recently won in blowouts, that we should have been completely blown out instead?

I am curious if there some statistical anomaly that was like a once in a decade type of thing.

 

[TRASHCAT]

Werent the kings #1 in corsi last year and they didnt make the playoffs?

 

[BobRouse]

Werent the kings #1 in corsi last year and they didnt make the playoffs?

Boston is #1 this year and free falling.

No stat is perfect that is for sure.

 

[txpd]

9-2
44-88
27-4

for the love of god trotz

curious. who are you saying Trotz should match up against the opposition first line? Orlov, Schmidt or Chorney?

 

[twabby]

curious. who are you saying Trotz should match up against the opposition first line? Orlov, Schmidt or Chorney?

Yes, yes, no.

I'd rather try to dictate the play instead of sitting back in a defensive shell against the opposition's best. Niskanen, Schmidt, and Orlov are the three best defensemen on the team in terms of tilting the ice. Also Backstrom and Eller are more than capable of matching up against the opposition's best. It's not just up to the defensemen to play defense, just like it's not just up to the forwards to contribute offensively.

(I realize this question wasn't for me, but I agree with his pairings so I figure I would respond)

 

[BobRouse]

Yes, yes, no.

I'd rather try to dictate the play instead of sitting back in a defensive shell against the opposition's best. Niskanen, Schmidt, and Orlov are the three best defensemen on the team in terms of tilting the ice. Also Backstrom and Eller are more than capable of matching up against the opposition's best. It's not just up to the defensemen to play defense, just like it's not just up to the forwards to contribute offensively.

(I realize this question wasn't for me, but I agree with his pairings so I figure I would respond)

There is a reason Trotz is a long tenured NHL coach and twabby is not.

It sounds good in theory. You see Schmidt and Orlov control play when they are put in favorable positions while you see Alzner and Carlson struggle against opponents top lines.

Schmidt and Orlov are young and unpolished. When the other team pins us in our zone its a scoring chance fest with those guys on the ice. They were both exposed vs the Pens in last years playoffs.

They are young and need to grow. They are not ready yet for those difficult matchups. Very few defensemen mature like Carlzner did when they first came up.

You put Orlov/Schmidt out against Malkin in the playoffs and its going to be tough sledding. We will have to live with their mistakes of which there will be plenty of.

 

[twabby]

There is a reason Trotz is a long tenured NHL coach and twabby is not.

It sounds good in theory. You see Schmidt and Orlov control play when they are put in favorable positions while you see Alzner and Carlson struggle against opponents top lines.

Schmidt and Orlov are young and unpolished. When the other team pins us in our zone its a scoring chance fest with those guys on the ice. They were both exposed vs the Pens in last years playoffs.

They are young and need to grow. They are not ready yet for those difficult matchups. Very few defensemen mature like Carlzner did when they first came up.

You put Orlov/Schmidt out against Malkin in the playoffs and its going to be tough sledding. We will have to live with their mistakes of which there will be plenty of.

There's also a reason why the Capitals have been one of the worst goal-scoring teams in the postseason and have wasted some excellent performances by Braden Holtby over the past 4 postseasons. They've opted to play a defensive game in the postseason instead of trying to dictate the play under Hunter and Trotz (don't ask me what Oates tried to play). The team's talent doesn't lie with their defensive defensemen, it lies with excellent goaltending and great scoring talent and they should look to utilize this by playing attacking hockey like they have over the past month or so.

Orlov and Schmidt to a lesser extent are unpolished defensively, but they are polished drivers of possession and polished offensive performers (Orlov moreso than Schmidt). Orlov hasn't been sheltered at all this season. True, he's not on the shutdown pair but his zone-starts and QoC are much more difficult than last season and he has still been thriving. Schmidt has been sheltered but he played plenty of top 4 minutes last season and done very well with them. The fact is both have grown and both deserve top 4 spots right now because Alzner and Carlson (when he was in the lineup) have been the weak links at even strength on the D. Trotz needs to show faith in his young defensemen rather than throw them under the bus and undermine their confidence like he did last season.

 

[BobRouse]

The fact is both have grown and both deserve top 4 spots right now because Alzner and Carlson (when he was in the lineup) have been the weak links at even strength on the D. Trotz needs to show faith in his young defensemen rather than throw them under the bus and undermine their confidence like he did last season.

Have you been watching the Caps since Carlson has not been in the lineup? Their ES play has NOT been good!

Carlson and Alzner soak up the tough minutes thus allowing guys like Schmidt and Orlov to prosper.

We were pretty conservative in the playoffs in the first year under Trotz but that's probably b/c we had Brouwer and Ward in top 6 roles. Last year we were attacking.

Don't think Orlov and Schmidt didn't struggle badly because they did. They have a year of seasoning under their belt so hopefully they will be better this year.

 

[twabby]

Have you been watching the Caps since Carlson has not been in the lineup? Their ES play has NOT been good!

Carlson and Alzner soak up the tough minutes thus allowing guys like Schmidt and Orlov to prosper.

We were pretty conservative in the playoffs in the first year under Trotz but that's probably b/c we had Brouwer and Ward in top 6 roles. Last year we were attacking.

Don't think Orlov and Schmidt didn't struggle badly because they did. They have a year of seasoning under their belt so hopefully they will be better this year.

Of course Carlson being out hurts because Chorney is a clear step down no matter how poorly Carlson was playing.

But the coaching staff did the team no favors by breaking up the two pairings that were extremely effective (9-2 and 44-88), which is where this discussion started. Those two pairings are 2 of the top 3 pairings in the entire NHL in terms of shot-attempt differential so it's no wonder the team started struggling again when they were needlessly broken up.

Orlov and Schmidt started struggling before the playoffs. Trotz made his infamous "pizza" comment and I wouldn't be surprised if there was some sort of coaching adjustment made last season that made them actively worse post-snowstorm. If it was one player then I could see it being a player just struggling with the grind of a full season. But when Orlov, Schmidt, Kuznetsov, Burakovsky, and a few others all have their game drop off I'm sorry I can't attribute that to anything other than coaching.

 

[BobRouse]

The last couple games he just did put Alzner with Chorney and kept the other 2 together.

It made no difference. Schmidt and Orpik were bad vs Ottawa.

Schmidt/Orpik are great as a 3rd pair playing against 3rd and 4th liners. One of the best pairings in the league in that role.

Ask them to play against more dangerous offensive players and they get running around.

Orlov too needs somewhat sheltered assignments. Him and Niskanen going up against top lines can be a trainwreck sometimes.

2 and 44 are YOUNG. They will have growing pains. Throwing them into the fire will only serve to stunt them.

 

[twabby]

The last couple games he just did put Alzner with Chorney and kept the other 2 together.

It made no difference. Schmidt and Orpik were bad vs Ottawa.

Schmidt/Orpik are great as a 3rd pair playing against 3rd and 4th liners. One of the best pairings in the league in that role.

Ask them to play against more dangerous offensive players and they get running around.

Orlov too needs somewhat sheltered assignments. Him and Niskanen going up against top lines can be a trainwreck sometimes.

2 and 44 are YOUNG. They will have growing pains. Throwing them into the fire will only serve to stunt them.

Orlov has played ~250 NHL games and Schmidt almost 200. They have plenty of experience, at this point denying them tougher assignments is stunting their growth. Maybe if Orlov and Schmidt had tougher assignments in the regular season last year they would have been better prepared for the playoffs? This season Orlov has received tougher assignments, but for some reason Schmidt hasn't despite absolutely killing the easy assignments.

And regarding the bolded statement: I don't really think that's true at all. Ignoring their excellent shot-attempt differential, they've only given up 1.4 goals/60 at even strength (and have scored 3.8 goals/60 at even strength) in an unsheltered role. Maybe it's time to give them a chance against the opposition's best rather than outright dismiss them because your eyes tell you that maybe they don't look good defensively out there?

 

[BobRouse]

Scott Stevens is one of the best Dmen in NHL history.

Even he still had significant brain farts with us up until his last couple years when his play steadied a bit. But he was with us for like 5 full seasons by then.

He took further strides with the Devils.

Dmen don't reach their peak until they are closer to 30 than 20. Some take longer than others.

If Orlov and Schmidt HAVE reached their peak then its safe to say we need to find a top 4 dman asap. Good news is I doubt they have. They still need to grow.