Speculation: Caps' plan on Defense?

[Calicaps]

Yes Cali i understand that the team hasn't played well this year. But here is the thing. I trust Nisky to rebound and play good defense. I trust Holtby to earn his money in the playoffs. Do i trust Orlov to find himself playing at a 5M dollar contract level. Nope.

I guess the only nice things i can say about Orlov are.

1.He is a nice guy
2.He is not Erik Gudbranson

As someone else noted, the coaches trusted him with 24 mins/night in a shutdown pair role last playoffs and they won a Cup. Beyond that, despite this year's performance, BMac kept him and Reirden has kept playing him. I trust their judgement.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

CAPS - PENS 2nd 10:24 - 2:0 Goal
Orlov with his superhuman passing skills creates a goal vs Pens top line.

 

[Silky mitts]

There’s something in sports called The Earth Theory, where there’s only so many people on Earth who can do X, which is why left tackles are more valuable than running backs or strong safeties, fewer nimble 6’5” 300 lbers than 5’10” guys who can take a beating, and left handed shooting defenseman who have put up 104 even strength points the last 4 seasons for less than $7M a year are rare as shit, and you move one of those guys to sign some 3rd line wingers or upgrade faceoffs then you’re the Giants letting their fans and Mike Francesca run your team.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

There’s something in sports called The Earth Theory, where there’s only so many people on Earth who can do X, which is why left tackles are more valuable than running backs or strong safeties, fewer nimble 6’5” 300 lbers than 5’10” guys who can take a beating, and left handed shooting defenseman who have put up 130 even strength points the last 5 seasons for less than $7M a year are rare as ****, and you move one of those guys to sign some 3rd line wingers or upgrade faceoffs then you’re the Giants letting their fans and Mike Francesca run your team.

Well nobody on the Caps falls into that group. It consists of: Nick Leddy, Jake Muzzin, Jake Gardiner, Ryan McDonagh, Keith Yandle, Torey Krug, Alex Goligoski, TJ Brodie, Morgan Rielly, Duncan Keith, Mark Giordano, Roman Josi.

That's actually over the last 6 seasons. Over the last 5, it's only Brodie, Keith, Rielly, Giordano, Josi

 

[Silky mitts]

Well nobody on the Caps falls into that group. It consists of: Nick Leddy, Jake Muzzin, Jake Gardiner, Ryan McDonagh, Keith Yandle, Torey Krug, Alex Goligoski, TJ Brodie, Morgan Rielly, Duncan Keith, Mark Giordano, Roman Josi.

That's actually over the last 6 seasons. Over the last 5, it's only Brodie, Keith, Rielly, Giordano, Josi

My bad, counted 3 27 point seasons as 4, 8th over 4 years with 104 points.

 

[TheMule93]

so how has he been for yall

 

[kicksavedave]

so how has he been for yall

Mixed bag, mostly terrific but a few face palm worthy mishaps. Got physically overpowered by Killorn on a 1 on 1, just abused and pushed out of the way for a goal. Got walked a couple other times for great chances or goals, but most of the time he's calm, cool and collected as advertised. He's terrific breaking out and jump starting the offence, but he doesn't have anyone here thinking he's going to win a a lot of physical battles. He was brought in to solidify the 3rd pair, but now he's going to see 18-20 mins per game with KEmpny out. So he's effectively now Kempny's replacement and I think most of us would have preferred Kempny.

Still he's definitely an asset, just has his weakness, literally/figuratively.

 

[Hivemind]

so how has he been for yall

Great start, but with a handful of rough moments more recently that stick out in people's memory. A bit of tendency to hold onto the puck too long. If he comes out of danger with the puck, it's an asset, but it opens the opportunity for the opponent to get an ill-timed turnover when he doesn't win the 1v1.

 

[Calicaps]

so how has he been for yall

I would only add to what others have said that I'm optimistic about him building a bit more physicality into his game. He's obviously not the biggest guy but I've seen a couple of flashes in recent games of him trying to body a forward out of the play. Our D have all had great things to say about Reirden as a defensive coach, so I'm hopeful his work with Jensen will pay dividends as we go forward.

 

[txpd]

Mixed bag, mostly terrific but a few face palm worthy mishaps..

In other words, he's been pretty good. He's not a 1D by any stretch but he has been good overall with some more upside showing thru. He should be a nice add for down the road.

Meanwhile, it was interesting hearing Niskanen talk about he and Orlov's struggles this season. "it took 60 games to find our skating legs". He mentioned that Orlov is feeling like himself again. He's had two really strong moves from the point that last week or two that Niskanen mentioned was a sure sign.

He said they were just flat.

 

[Ridley Simon]

In other words, he's been pretty good. He's not a 1D by any stretch but he has been good overall with some more upside showing thru. He should be a nice add for down the road.

Meanwhile, it was interesting hearing Niskanen talk about he and Orlov's struggles this season. "it took 60 games to find our skating legs". He mentioned that Orlov is feeling like himself again. He's had two really strong moves from the point that last week or two that Niskanen mentioned was a sure sign.

He said they were just flat.

So the dreaded Cup hangover.

 

[RandyHolt]

Sandbagging. Trying their best to give their least.

That's not easy.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

2LD Michal Kempný LOCK	2RD John Carlson LOCK
1LD Dmitry Orlov LOCK	1RD Matt Niskanen STAY/UPGRAGE
3LD Jonas Siegenthaler LOCK	3RD Nick Jensen LOCK

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

7D Tyler Lewington LOCK

Christian Djoos TRADE

Alexander Alexeyev AHL/NHL
Chase Priskie AHL
Connor Hobbs AHL
Martin Fehérváry AHL

 

[Corby78]

You want to trade Djoos? Is that because you think he will get past soon or that he has hit his developmental peak?

 

[peterthegreat12]

2LD Michal Kempný LOCK	2RD John Carlson LOCK
1LD Dmitry Orlov LOCK	1RD Matt Niskanen STAY/UPGRAGE
3LD Jonas Siegenthaler LOCK	3RD Nick Jensen LOCK

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

7D Tyler Lewington LOCK

Christian Djoos TRADE

Alexander Alexeyev AHL/NHL
Chase Priskie AHL
Connor Hobbs AHL
Martin Fehérváry AHL

No way in hell do I think Tyler Lewington is a lock to be an NHL player. He has limited upside.

 

[searle]

Doubt it'd happen but I wouldn't be mad at trading Niskanen to someone desperate like Edmonton if he doesn't find his form in the playoffs, but he has a 10 team no trade list which would make things difficult.

Would this top 4 be worth getting an extra $5m in cap space?

Kempny-Carlson
Orlov-Jensen

With Djoos, Siege and then Priskie etc battling for bottom pairing.


Could see it happening if GMBM has his eye on another Kempny in free agency....

Our defence could end up being a moneyball lineup of 5 stable (if unexciting) $2.5m and under players and Carlson. Low ceiling but high average

(This is probably more of an NHL19 strategy than real life)

 

[kicksavedave]

Doubt it'd happen but I wouldn't be mad at trading Niskanen to someone desperate like Edmonton if he doesn't find his form in the playoffs, but he has a 10 team no trade list which would make things difficult.

Would this top 4 be worth getting an extra $5m in cap space?

Kempny-Carlson
Orlov-Jensen

With Djoos, Siege and then Priskie etc battling for bottom pairing.


Could see it happening if GMBM has his eye on another Kempny in free agency....

Our defence could end up being a moneyball lineup of 5 stable (if unexciting) $2.5m and under players and Carlson. Low ceiling but high average

(This is probably more of an NHL19 strategy than real life)

I wouldn't jack up the top 6 defense to sign one more forward like Conno or Hags or Bura. If we have to sacrifice a solid player and go with a minimum wage guy to complete the roster, I'd rather it be a bottom 6 wing who doesn't kill penalties, than a starting defenseman who plays 20-25 mins per night.

This of course has no bearing on the decision to move on from a Nisky because they think his play has declined well below his salary. That's a whole separate decision tree. My personal opinion on that is the staff and FO understand he struggled early this year, they are not oblivious to that, but they will be more patient with him that HFBoards will be. They also see him picking it up now, when it matters, and no decisions have been made on anyone until these playoffs are over.

 

[HaNotsri]

Fehérváry Has been incredible all playoffs. Played over 43 minutes in one of the games. Made one mistake in 9 games and it cost them the series which is really sad because he has been a standout player every night. Known as the fastest dman, perhaps skater, in the SHL. Might be your leading d sooner rather than later.

 

[txpd]

Next season I am projecting the D starting the season with

Orlov Niskanen
Carlson Jensen
Orpik Djoos
Seigenthaler as the spare.

Kempny on LTIR.

I think they will be lucky if Kempny has a training camp. Between the 20 mins that Orpik played v Carolina and the fight in Tampa Bay, I think Orpik is up for another one year deal and fully expect the Caps to do that.

If the Caps have a successful playoff run, I expect very little movement on this front.

 

[kicksavedave]

Next season I am projecting the D starting the season with

Orlov Niskanen
Carlson Jensen
Orpik Djoos
Seigenthaler as the spare.

Kempny on LTIR.

I think they will be lucky if Kempny has a training camp. Between the 20 mins that Orpik played v Carolina and the fight in Tampa Bay, I think Orpik is up for another one year deal and fully expect the Caps to do that.

If the Caps have a successful playoff run, I expect very little movement on this front.

If Kempny is back on the ice in 4 months, he starts game 1 next year. If its 6 months, that puts his time back at Oct 1 or so. That's still likely enough time to start the RS. He only misses the RS opener if he has a setback.

 

[txpd]

If Kempny is back on the ice in 4 months, he starts game 1 next year. If its 6 months, that puts his time back at Oct 1 or so. That's still likely enough time to start the RS. He only misses the RS opener if he has a setback.

I read it as 6 months to being back on the ice. I read him as ready to play NHL hockey in November. If all goes well, the Caps still carry 8 defensemen.

Regardless, the Caps will be deciding on staffing their defense before they can know the nature of Kempny's recovery and expect they will make the safe decisions.

 

[kicksavedave]

I read it as 6 months to being back on the ice. I read him as ready to play NHL hockey in November. If all goes well, the Caps still carry 8 defensemen.

Regardless, the Caps will be deciding on staffing their defense before they can know the nature of Kempny's recovery and expect they will make the safe decisions.

All the news reports say he will be "out 4-6 months" (from late March). Not sure how you turn that into November but you're the doctor here

 

[txpd]

All the news reports say he will be "out 4-6 months" (from late March). Not sure how you turn that into November but you're the doctor here

I read 4 to 6 as 6 and less if we are lucky. I read 6 as in ready to skate and start to practice. Torn ligament knee surgeries take a year to get back in the lineup and another year to recover your game.

If you are confident that Kempny is good to go for enough of training camp to be season ready and that the Caps can staff their defense accordingly, you are more confident than I am. Bottom line is that the Caps keep the same 8 defensemen either way

 

[hb12xchamps]

Fehérváry Has been incredible all playoffs. Played over 43 minutes in one of the games. Made one mistake in 9 games and it cost them the series which is really sad because he has been a standout player every night. Known as the fastest dman, perhaps skater, in the SHL. Might be your leading d sooner rather than later.

His season is over correct? Could be on his way to NA to play for Hershey

 

[HaNotsri]

His season is over correct? Could be on his way to NA to play for Hershey

Yeah, you are going to be amazed. Beast.