Speculation: Caps Hockey General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) -- 2017-18 Regular Season Edition

[Carlzner]

"Transition" statistics mean absolutely nothing when it's that 1 goal lead crunch time. The other team is going to be have insane pressure no matter what. It's just the nature of the game. The fact that you attribute his face-off stats INSTEAD of the fact that he's our best shot (by a mile) to win that draw is hilarious.

And you'd rather have 65 or 13 on the ice instead of Beagle because of their general possession stats? Completely asinine.

 

[g00n]

Assigning goal value to Toronto’s faceoff takers
http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/FaceoffAnalysis12-12.pdf

I'm not going to vouch for this analysis but the conclusions make sense to me. Special teams non-neutral zone draws seem like they should carry a lot more weight than others and indeed according to the numbers they are the most important.

FWIW Beagle is a +141 at even strength and a +15 shorthanded (Corsica doesn't break it down by zone). With those numbers and this analysis you'd conclude Beagle adds about 1.75 goals over the course of this season due strictly to his faceoff capabilities. That's not bad, but I'd guess his shortcomings elsewhere in his game make him an overall net-negative player especially with his overusage. And indeed Corsica has him at -4.0 goals above replacement.

Curious without getting too much into the deep talk about analytics value in general, and we can move there if necessary, but are any teams relying so heavily on these stats that they'd look at those numbers (the GAR for FOs vs overall) and conclude a guy like Beagle is costing them 2.25 goals all year and therefore must be removed?

 

[g00n]

The modern, speedy, capped NHL seems to scream ELC and younger player bottom 6 composition, imo. You just hope you draft/trade for the right guys who will outperform their contract and catch fire rather than shrink and play scared.

Loading up on pluggers doesn't sound like such a great idea anymore.

 

[twabby]

"Transition" statistics mean absolutely nothing when it's that 1 goal lead crunch time. The other team is going to be have insane pressure no matter what. It's just the nature of the game. The fact that you attribute his face-off stats INSTEAD of the fact that he's our best shot (by a mile) to win that draw is hilarious.

And you'd rather have 65 or 13 on the ice instead of Beagle because of their general possession stats? Completely asinine.

As I mentioned in late lead protecting situations it makes sense to deploy Beagle to try to win the faceoff. The problem is Trotz uses him in the defensive zone in far more situations than late in games protecting a lead.

And in general yes I’d prefer 65 or 13 on the ice over Beagle. They are both better players, again with the exception of specific circumstances like PKing and late lead protecting situations.

 

[Melkor]

So....trade a player based off one game? Am I reading that correctly?

Lemme make it clear: if Holtby plays bad in that game, the starter for the playoffs will be Grubauer and Holtby is legit done for this season. Therefore the question about his future on Caps pops up. I'd definitely would try to trade him.

 

[thelebaron]

Beagle hate.

Just who is this responding to?

 

[twabby]

Curious without getting too much into the deep talk about analytics value in general, and we can move there if necessary, but are any teams relying so heavily on these stats that they'd look at those numbers (the GAR for FOs vs overall) and conclude a guy like Beagle is costing them 2.25 goals all year and therefore must be removed?

Obviously I have no idea if teams use GAR stats to make decisions, but I'm sure teams weigh face-offs vs. other aspects of a player's game to determine their worth even if it's more of a qualitative eye-test sort of analysis. Even with the Capitals you can point to David Steckel and Boyd Gordon as two exceptional face-off guys (better career FO% than Beagle in fact) that Capitals management moved on from because they were ineffective in other parts of the game. I'd say Beagle is a little better overall than these two were but probably not by much.

 

[g00n]

Obviously I have no idea if teams use GAR stats to make decisions, but I'm sure teams weigh face-offs vs. other aspects of a player's game to determine their worth even if it's more of a qualitative eye-test sort of analysis. Even with the Capitals you can point to David Steckel and Boyd Gordon as two exceptional face-off guys (better career FO% than Beagle in fact) that Capitals management moved on from because they were ineffective in other parts of the game. I'd say Beagle is a little better overall than these two were but probably not by much.

Just wondering. Though you might know. Thanks

 

[twabby]

Just wondering. Though you might know. Thanks

Meet the secretive 23-year-old tasked with improving the Avs, Nuggets and other Kroenke properties – BSN Denver

Dawson Sprigings had his own GAR/WAR stats and he now works for the Avalanche (and other franchises in different leagues). I'd imagine they are using his GAR/WAR work but I'm not sure to what extent.

I also thought New Jersey, Tampa Bay, and a few other teams made some significant analytics hires recently but again I'm not sure if they are given a big seat at the table or if they marginalized like some analytics groups are (Montreal).

 

[Jacoby4HOF66]

 

[g00n]

I wonder if "decisions" was the actual word used by gmbm. Big difference between that and "deals" or "announcements" etc

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[Jacoby4HOF66]

GMBM also said he is fine with PIT in round 1 but fans might "have a conniption".

 

[Empty Goal Net]

Whether it's an announcement or a decision, even if the decision has been made, I can't think of a reason why GMBM would use the word "announcement" publicly at this time. gmspeak

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[Jacoby4HOF66]

Some Carly love for the Norris:

 

[txpd]

Just who is this responding to?

Does it matter? It's mostly twabby's Beagle hate that makes me SMH, but it generally applies.

 

[txpd]

GMBM also said he is fine with PIT in round 1 but fans might "have a conniption".

Own it and best it. I've been saying this. Good for Mac

 

[ovikovy817]

Caps win game 1 (1:0)
Holtby starts game 1
Beagle scores the only goal of the game
Trotz make some in game adjustment

And this board will still complain.

 

[RandyHolt]

If Barry deploys Beagle the same way he has and we bow out in round 2, is that when we call for a new approach. Trying something so simple shouldn't require a coaching change.

He has had Beagle. Beagle is awesome. Maybe our top blood sweat and tears guy. But Barry has other players that can also help us win. There is no Beagle hate at all. I just hate when he plays injured for vast stretches and is clearly ineffective. And of course now he is injured. If he is ineffective in games 1 and 2, do lovers want Barry to play him no matter what the rest of series?

Again. Hey, it's last call for Barry. But it's really the story of our playoffs. The vets vs the kids. The difference this year? We actually have young forwards to try. Our previous years? Our in house F depth was non existent. For seemingly a decade. Embarrassing. I have hope, evidenced by Grubby, of course.

 

[artilector]

Caps win game 1 (1:0)
Holtby starts game 1
Beagle scores the only goal of the game
Trotz make some in game adjustment

And this board will still complain.

Spoken like a true drama queen.

 

[Jacoby4HOF66]

 

[RandyHolt]

Meet the secretive 23-year-old tasked with improving the Avs, Nuggets and other Kroenke properties – BSN Denver

Dawson Sprigings had his own GAR/WAR stats and he now works for the Avalanche (and other franchises in different leagues). I'd imagine they are using his GAR/WAR work but I'm not sure to what extent.

I also thought New Jersey, Tampa Bay, and a few other teams made some significant analytics hires recently but again I'm not sure if they are given a big seat at the table or if they marginalized like some analytics groups are (Montreal).

Ok let's get on this. Have we seen the Avs Devils Tampa and ? make what we collectively think are smart moves of late? I feel like we got looted for MJ but don't know GWAR.

Avalanche and Devils are obviously better. Halls kicking ass. How'd they do it.

Crazy band GWAR was.

 

[txpd]

Ok let's get on this. Have we seen the Avs Devils Tampa and ? make what we collectively think are smart moves of late? I feel like we got looted for MJ but don't know GWAR.

Avalanche and Devils are obviously better. Halls kicking ass. How'd they do it.

Crazy band GWAR was.

Miss the playoffs for 6 straight years and picking first last draft is a recipe