Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2019 Offseason Pt. 3: Free Agency Freak Out

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

Don't really see the harm in resigning Stephenson to a league min deal, obviously if someone beats him out from Hershey it's fair, but as it is he's a serviceable 4th liner and he has one good year and one bad year in the NHL, really curious what year 3 would bring.

 

[peterthegreat12]

Don't really see the harm in resigning Stephenson to a league min deal, obviously if someone beats him out from Hershey it's fair, but as it is he's a serviceable 4th liner and he has one good year and one bad year in the NHL, really curious what year 3 would bring.

Stephenson is literally a black hole for offense. Damn near the least shot attempts per hour of any player in the league (including defensemen)....pass.

 

[Sam Spade]

probably not

Let's find out then. I know for sure he can miss on clear breakaways.

Don't really see the harm in resigning Stephenson to a league min deal, obviously if someone beats him out from Hershey it's fair, but as it is he's a serviceable 4th liner and he has one good year and one bad year in the NHL, really curious what year 3 would bring.

Of course you need guys like Stephenson, and signed for nothing, play those PK minutes, don't care if he gets injured doing it. The problem is he just continues getting penciled in the lineup night after night and nothing happens.

I understand waivers and NHL salaries and all of the ramifications of Hershey guys getting NHL games but continuing to just give a guy games because he is "safe" is a problem. Safe is death.

Stephenson is 25, so let's see what he brings this season, but if it is more of the same, I'm done, next man up.

 

[hockeykicker]

Maclellan says he wants to improve both third and fourth lines

 

[txpd]

Let's find out then. I know for sure he can miss on clear breakaways.
Of course you need guys like Stephenson, and signed for nothing, play those PK minutes, don't care if he gets injured doing it. The problem is he just continues getting penciled in the lineup night after night and nothing happens..

I am confident that Stephenson is in serious jeopardy of not being on the team next season, I just don't think that kid is the guy to replace him. Good penalty killers aren't rookies. Good defensive play away from the puck isn't done by North American novice European players.

 

[Charles Calvert]

Maclellan says he wants to improve both third and fourth lines

GMBM is always very transparent about his plans. I totally see him being aggressive getting a stud 4th liner because of how bad the 4th line was.

Who's the best? Probably Tanev in my mind.

 

[Langway]

Who's the best? Probably Tanev in my mind.

Too costly I think. Even Acciari may be a bit too rich. If Burakovsky is staying they're probably limited to something like $800k unless Vrana takes a one-year deal or something. I'd hope they could still get him for two years, in which case I'm guessing they target no QO reclamation projects like Granlund, Leipsic, Cousins, Hartman, Andrighetto, Brett Ritchie, Archibald or maybe depth UFAs like Bellemare, McKegg, Lindberg or Carpenter. One of them and then one of Pirri/Carr/Poturalsk/Brodzinskii would make sense and then let camp determine how it shapes up.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

Stephenson is literally a black hole for offense. Damn near the least shot attempts per hour of any player in the league (including defensemen)....pass.

I'm not concerned about his TSA, he took less shots in 17-18 and still had a better season.(He weirdly is representative of our style, only takes high quality shots, so he has less TSA than his peers, but his output isn't that far off). He's not a goal scorer, he's a 4th line two way forward. The stats I'm interested in are his takeaways, giveaways, and face-off %. If Stephenson had a scoring touch he wouldn't be on the 4th line with his speed and we wouldn't be talking about a league min deal.

17-18 he was a decent player. 54% FO%, nearly 20 pnts in only 67 GP, 24 takeaways, only 16 giveaways, etc.


2017-18 Stephenson was an excellent two way forward for where he was slotted into the line and for how much he was paid. If he can build on that, and not whatever 18-19 was, then I still think he's a decent 4th line option. I have to wonder if 18-19 was him trying to be a player he's not.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

Too costly I think. Even Acciari may be a bit too rich. If Burakovsky is staying they're probably limited to something like $800k unless Vrana takes a one-year deal or something. I'd hope they could still get him for two years, in which case I'm guessing they target no QO reclamation projects like Granlund, Leipsic, Cousins, Hartman, Andrighetto, Brett Ritchie, Archibald or maybe depth UFAs like Bellemare, McKegg, Lindberg or Carpenter. One of them and then one of Pirri/Carr/Poturalsk/Brodzinskii would make sense and then let camp determine how it shapes up.

McKegg was such a pain in the ass this last spring, I'd love to kick the tires on him. Conversely, Bellemare has never been one to make meaningful contributions in the games I've seen him play in PHI/VGK

 

[Futures Passed]

So, if the Caps have $9,235,706 in cap space, that only really leaves enough room for like a minimum salary 4th liner, right?

• Bura gets 3.25
• Vrana gets around 4 on a bridge deal (He doesn't have arbitration rights, so who knows, maybe they can get this number lower)
• Stephenson gets just over .7 for his QO
• Djoos gets just over .7 for his QO

Unless they can get Vrana's number lower, that leaves them with just enough for a minimum salary player. Even that will be hard to squeeze in depending on what Vrana gets. In this scenario, if they want to squeeze in a higher price player they will need to make a trade. Otherwise we are talking about someone like Leipsic or someone else struggling for a roster spot with hopefully a bit of upside- a dumpster dive/reclamation project. It worked out pretty decently with Dowd last season and the Caps tend to do pretty well with these. If they go the free agency route, maybe they can convince someone to take an incentive laden one year deal, like Orpik last year, to play for a contender.

Is this an accurate assessment of their cap situation or am I misunderstanding something?

 

[Silky mitts]

So, if the Caps have $9,235,706 in cap space, that only really leaves enough room for like a minimum salary 4th liner, right?

• Bura gets 3.25
• Vrana gets around 4 on a bridge deal (He doesn't have arbitration rights, so who knows, maybe they can get this number lower)
• Stephenson gets just over .7 for his QO
• Djoos gets just over .7 for his QO

Unless they can get Vrana's number lower, that leaves them with just enough for a minimum salary player. Even that will be hard to squeeze in depending on what Vrana gets. In this scenario, if they want to squeeze in a higher price player they will need to make a trade. Otherwise we are talking about someone like Leipsic or someone else struggling for a roster spot with hopefully a bit of upside- a dumpster dive/reclamation project. It worked out pretty decently with Dowd last season and the Caps tend to do pretty well with these. If they go the free agency route, maybe they can convince someone to take an incentive laden one year deal, like Orpik last year, to play for a contender.

Is this an accurate assessment of their cap situation or am I misunderstanding something?

Based on those numbers with a 23 man roster 1 more guy can make about 250k over the minimum

 

[traparatus]

Don't really see the harm in resigning Stephenson to a league min deal, obviously if someone beats him out from Hershey it's fair, but as it is he's a serviceable 4th liner and he has one good year and one bad year in the NHL, really curious what year 3 would bring.

The harm is I have to watch Stephenson 'play hockey'. Every time I witness his patented 3mph backhand, I instantly think 'Isn't there something better I could be doing with my time?'

I'm not one to randomly pencil AHLers into an NHL line up but there's got to be a player in Hershey who can outperform 'completely useless'.

 

[Silky mitts]

The harm is I have to watch Stephenson 'play hockey'. Every time I witness his patented 3mph backhand, I instantly think 'Isn't there something better I could be doing with my time?'

Every time I saw it last year I thought is this fixable? It wasn't bad the year before, is it an injury or is it psychological? Maybe it's unfixable but because there's just the one thing wrong I have an easier time picking Stephenson over a minimum salary off the street than Bura over having 3.25M to spend.

 

[txpd]

GMBM is always very transparent about his plans. I totally see him being aggressive getting a stud 4th liner because of how bad the 4th line was.

Who's the best? Probably Tanev in my mind.

I think finding another Nic Dowd is more likely. Some guy we have barely heard of that is on the free agent pile

 

[Futures Passed]

Based on those numbers with a 23 man roster 1 more guy can make about 250k over the minimum

Nice. Time to work some magic GMBM.

 

[Charles Calvert]

Are we certain Vrana gets 4? Johnsson just got 3.4 for 4 years and had similar results, albeit has only really had one full year.

I don't know, I still think it's 3.5 over 2 or 3.

 

[hb12xchamps]

I still think there’s something going on behind the scenes that we haven’t heard any rumblings about. GMBM checking in on Zucker’s price makes me think he has bigger thoughts than some super cheap 4th liners and reclamation projects.

Just looking at our LD prospect chart makes it hard to fathom developing all of these prospects correctly. I mean we are going to possibly have LuJo, Geisser, Fehervary, AA, Bindulis and Nardella in Hershey next year. Even if AA plays his off side and Bindulis gets sent down, that’s way too many prospects to get true developmental playing time.

I’m not convinced with GMBM throwing up his facade saying they will be exploring cheap 4th liners. That’s not how he is wired and I fully expect another move to happen before the offseason is done and maybe before Monday

 

[Hivemind]

Both Stephenson and Djoos have arbitration rights, so I wouldn't count on them settling for their QOs. So does Burakovsky, for that matter.


Also of note, here's the cap hits for some of the notables in Hershey:
Joe Snively - $925K
LuJo - $925K
Alexeyev - $894K
AJF - $860K

This may be another year where they aren't able to call up the players they prefer (or give them spots out of camp) due to cap considerations.

 

[txpd]

MacLellan's track record is that he pretty much says what he means. If he says he wants to tweak the 3rd and 4th lines, then I would expect that. No more than that. IMO the only top 9 slot that is questionable is the Burakovsky slot. Only way they bring in anyone for that spot is if that player is traded.

As for the defensive prospects, they will be happy to score one top 4 defenseman out of all of that.

 

[895]

Counting on minimum for all the other guys is not a good idea. Most prospects and such are on 925k contracts. Djoos will not sign for 700k. It took 1m to sign Bowey last year and he was riding the pine while Djoos was playing as the 6th man on the way to winning the Cup.

I don't see how we can ice a 23 man roster with Burakovsky. He still might need to go. Or we go the 22 man route but that's not the greatest idea. That cap penalty and 1.5M less cap space than expected are really killing us.

 

[dillyboy93]

I wouldn't mind Donskoi or Tanev but I feel like they’re gonna be a bit too pricey for the capitals to sign. Another I’d really like to take a shot on is Hartman if he makes it to July 1st

 

[Corby78]

Are we certain Vrana gets 4? Johnsson just got 3.4 for 4 years and had similar results, albeit has only really had one full year.

I don't know, I still think it's 3.5 over 2 or 3.

If we can get Vrana at 3.5, it will just show how off Bura's 3.25 number is.

 

[Futures Passed]

Both Stephenson and Djoos have arbitration rights, so I wouldn't count on them settling for their QOs. So does Burakovsky, for that matter.


Also of note, here's the cap hits for some of the notables in Hershey:
Joe Snively - $925K
LuJo - $925K
Alexeyev - $894K
AJF - $860K

This may be another year where they aren't able to call up the players they prefer (or give them spots out of camp) due to cap considerations.

Good point on the cap hit for the Hershey guys. It will be tight for sure.

Can Bura make less than his QO if he goes to arbitration though? If so, I would think he just takes the QO money and runs.

For Stephenson, even though he doesn't produce much offense, he does PK a ton, so it's not hard to imagine he gets more than the minimum in arbitration and, even if that's just a few $100 K more, it could still make a big difference. I could see the Caps walking if that happens though. It might be a risky move for Stephenson honestly. He might be better off just accepting his QO, holding onto his roster spot, and working to produce at a higher level this season. His stock isn't exactly that high at the moment and, honestly, there is actually a pretty nice opportunity for playing time in the Caps bottom six at the moment- much more so than in the recent past. Hopefully the opportunity for playing time on a contender helps the Caps attract someone with some decent upside.

 

[hb12xchamps]

MacLellan's track record is that he pretty much says what he means. If he says he wants to tweak the 3rd and 4th lines, then I would expect that. No more than that. IMO the only top 9 slot that is questionable is the Burakovsky slot. Only way they bring in anyone for that spot is if that player is traded.

As for the defensive prospects, they will be happy to score one top 4 defenseman out of all of that.

You keep trying to push this narrative that GMBM says what he means but that isn't true. He said last year at the TDL they would at most make a small move. He goes out and waives beloved DSP, acquires Hagelin and acquires Jensen who gets an immediate 4 year extension. That's not small moves IMO. He's going to feed the media a bunch of BS while he works his magic behind closed doors. His trades rarely get leaked and when they do (Niskanen for Gudas) it's by a source in the other team's organization or someone in the NHL offices registering the trades (most TDL moves). Friedman has said twice now that he has had Zucker conversations. He's thinking big picture.

Also, the prospects don't need to be moved individually. They can and more likely will be added to a package if a trade is made. Prospect for prospect trades rarely happen unless both prospects are in need of a change of scenery.

 

[txpd]

You keep trying to push this narrative that GMBM says what he means but that isn't true. He said last year at the TDL they would at most make a small move..

I don't recall that actually. Got a link to a quote? What I remember is comments specifically about addressing the penalty kill. That may have been Reirden. Post TDL MacLellan's first comment about both Jensen and Hagelin was speed and penalty kill.

I also don't think of bottom half of the lineup players as big moves. Jensen was a Kempny level move and I don't remember anyone describing Kempny as anything other than smalls. I could be wrong.

If you think MacLellan has a big splash coming, ok. Maybe Kuzy is moving to Florida.