Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2019 Offseason Pt. 1: The BMac Attack

[Marshall]

I've been wondering about Holtby, as well. I don't know that I'd trade him this off-season, but I probably let him walk - unless the cap climbs more than expected, I'm not sure I break the bank to keep him. (And yes, I try to sign Backstrom as soon as possible.) I don't think anyone in the system is ready to replace him at the moment, or even next offseason, but I would be okay bringing in an UFA goalie for a couple of seasons to bridge the transition to Samsonov (presumably.)

But I don't think Holtby will be on the team in two years.

 

[Hivemind]

I’m at the same place Marshall is with Holtby. Don’t trade him now, but also don’t break the bank to bring him back unless Samsonov tears an ACL or something.

 

[Raikkonen]

Reclamation mode Semyon Varlamov!

1M x 1Y

Trade Holtby for something

Im not suggesting this, just speculating

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

I'm not advocating one way or the other - just trying to think through what some of the options there are. Again, I'm sure they have contingencies if trade opportunities present (or they present to other teams, and those teams bite). GMBM and crew have insights and data that we don't and all we can do is speculate as to where their thresholds are for moving/signing any given player.

The speculation is more relevant in light of GMBM being in an active mode.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Next year’s backup goalie....if it’s not Samsonov, then what?


Feels to me like if we’re to entertain the idea of moving on from Holtby, Samsonov must be in the NHL next year.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

Feels to me like if we’re to entertain the idea of moving on from Holtby, Samsonov must be in the NHL next year.

It may be the internal consensus is that he is ready to start in ths NHL.

 

[PB12]

It may be the internal consensus is that he is ready to start in ths NHL.

The kid is not ready. You rush the kid and you potentially **** up his confidence. Keep Holtby and let Samsonov play some bad teams. Build him up.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

It may be the internal consensus is that he is ready to start in ths NHL.

No chance.

 

[txpd]

I'm saying it's rational to ask the question

Its not rational to ask the question, if you are expecting any answer other than Hell, no! As you say, St Louis went thru 5 goaltenders and gave the kid a chance out of desperation. That would be like making Copley the starter because there was no other choice and finding out that he was good. You don't want to roll with Copley, do you?

The Capitals have a choice. The Blues didn't. Or the Blues ran thru 4 other choices first. BTW, you also realize that there is a better chance that the Caps ruin Samsanov by throwing him to the wolves than finding out that he is a playoff stud.

This would be like suggesting that the Caps trade Orlov because they have AA they can run out there for 20 mins a game

 

[RVACapsFan]

For me the Holtby equation is this....is it worth sacrificing a first round pick for us to keep Holtby next year while Samsonov continues to develop? Because that’s probably his value in a trade now — and it probably is worth it. I don’t see any way Holtby re-signs with us after next season; the salary cap will be too tight and Samsonov will (hopefully) be ready. After next season I could see us trading Holtby’s negotiating rights to another team for a 4th rounder or something, kind of like what LAK/DAL did with Bishop a few years ago.

 

[PB12]

For me the Holtby equation is this....is it worth sacrificing a first round pick for us to keep Holtby next year while Samsonov continues to develop? Because that’s probably his value in a trade now — and it probably is worth it. I don’t see any way Holtby re-signs with us after next season; the salary cap will be too tight and Samsonov will (hopefully) be ready. After next season I could see us trading Holtby’s negotiating rights to another team for a 4th rounder or something, kind of like what LAK/DAL did with Bishop a few years ago.

Problem is Samsonov is not ready. You rush the kid and you ruin him. A first round pick is not worth ruining Samsonov.

 

[Lindemann]

Is there another goalie on the market that we can take to have Samsy backup for this year?

 

[RVACapsFan]

Problem is Samsonov is not ready. You rush the kid and you ruin him. A first round pick is not worth ruining Samsonov.

Yeah, I think I agree.

 

[PB12]

Is there another goalie on the market that we can take to have Samsy backup for this year?

Not if we want to contend, which it sounds like Mac wants to do.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Not if we want to contend, which it sounds like Mac wants to do.

Exactly....these are Ovy’s last peak years....let’s not piss them away by degrading the core parts of the team.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

The kid is not ready. You rush the kid and you potentially **** up his confidence. Keep Holtby and let Samsonov play some bad teams. Build him up.

And that may very well be the case. Again, I'm not advocating, just scanning for what may be possible. I do see every Caps game up here in London, Ontario, but never any Hershey games. I understand he improved a lot in the last month.


The question is what does GMBM and the staff think about his trajectory. I do not know (and certainly don't want him ruined).

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

The other question about Holtby is how are GMBM assessing his play. Are they still confident in a high level performance or is there concern about significant decline? Again, we don't know.

 

[PB12]

And that may very well be the case. Again, I'm not advocating, just scanning for what may be possible. I do see every Caps game up here in London, Ontario, but never any Hershey games. I understand he improved a lot in the last month.


The question is what does GMBM and the staff think about his trajectory. I do not know (and certainly don't want him ruined).

He has been decent. But not enough to show he is NHL ready.

 

[Langway]

Exactly....these are Ovy’s last peak years....let’s not piss them away by degrading the core parts of the team.

Well, I mean, is this really a contending defense though? They subtracted there from an upside standpoint and will restructure further but all-in-all I'm not so sure a more modest off-season results in them ahead of where they were already. They'll have more jump and maybe that's the big X factor MacLellan relies on but it seems he's not entirely content on that. Sometimes you have to run the risk of taking a step back to take two forward and I wonder even what their best-case more modest off-season looks like. Hagelin & Burakovsky back and then another cheaper forward? Is that enough?

That said, I'm not sure there's a massive market to the extent that would make moving Holtby worthwhile. Rebuilding teams are loath to part with top ten picks and there's more than usual risk given he could walk in a year. Worst-case maybe he could be moved again at the deadline for value but very likely not top ten value. If it's someone like Alex Nylander and/or Tage Thompson that might be more doable compared to a top ten pick that's considered a cleaner prospect. Again, though, I don't know that this defense is good enough to consider them on par (or that the coaching staff has shown an ability to be equally all-in either).

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

“A contending defense”.....

I think it’s certainly good enough to beat any playoff team out there if you get better play from 92, 70, 74, 9....

They needed them to play better and got it to win the Cup. I expect they must deliver elevated play (over what we just saw in this year’s playoffs) again if they are to make a deep run.

That said, I would love for them to not be done shifting the D, but I feel like (and am afraid that) this is a one year move to get a better 1b D as they become available in the next year or so. Hopefully we don’t have to wait for a UFA next summer, but that may be the landscape we’re faced with.

 

[txpd]

well...If its not a contending defense and we want to give some serious thought to trading Holtby, there is reason no try and resign any of the pending UFAs. Waste of money. Let em walk, trade Holtby for futures and start the rerack. If the team is already not capable, then why waste time and money going thru the motions?

That said, if that is the direction, then I would question why they would want to keep Backstrom as well.

Edit: If this is not a competitive defense corp, putting a rookie goalie to work behind that is risky for his development.

 

[Langway]

Maybe Reirden does wonders for Jensen, provided he's still able to give that full attention. Jensen has to have realized he'll need to get stronger to handle it. We'll see. Based on last season, though, I'd say it's wishful thinking to rely on him as a Cup 4 (along with at least one or bet other roles/slots).

That said, I would love for them to not be done shifting the D, but I feel like (and am afraid that) this is a one year move to get a better 1b D as they become available in the next year or so. Hopefully we don’t have to wait for a UFA next summer, but that may be the landscape we’re faced with.

That's likely only feasible after letting Holtby walk and only if they can swing it after Backstrom's extension (and then factoring in Ovechkin's eventual raise). I'm not sure that's the plan so much as they're bridging things along until Alexeyev & Fehervary are ready to contribute and that they believe they'll eventually be top 4 all-situations types.

Maybe they can convince Orpik to return for another year. I'd be down. They need The Glue. Gudas provides some depth glue. Hagelin will provide his element of it. But they need more and then a Connolly replacement on the cheap. Not easy.

 

[txpd]

“A contending defense”.....

I think it’s certainly good enough to beat any playoff team out there if you get better play from 92, 70, 74, 9....

They needed them to play better and got it to win the Cup. I expect they must deliver elevated play (over what we just saw in this year’s playoffs) again if they are to make a deep run.

That said, I would love for them to not be done shifting the D, but I feel like (and am afraid that) this is a one year move to get a better 1b D as they become available in the next year or so. Hopefully we don’t have to wait for a UFA next summer, but that may be the landscape we’re faced with.

Gudas in the last year of his contract and with the Flyers retaining would be easy to trade if MacLellan wanted to

 

[txpd]

Maybe Reirden does wonders for Jensen, provided he's still able to give that full attention. Jensen has to have realized he'll need to get stronger to handle it. We'll see.

Listening to Jensen talk after the season, he never got comfortable in the system. Enough to play it without thinking thru it. I don't know difference what the Caps do is to what the Wings did but its for sure the leverage of every Caps game he played was a world different than what he was living in Detroit.

I think after a training camp, he is going to be better. Its a lot to ask a guy that has never played a meaningful NHL game to step in and play meaningful minutes on a team that expects to win a championship.

 

[Lindemann]

Do you think Backstrom and Ovi will take cuts to keep the team going and have a better chance at another cup?