Post-Game Talk: Caps @ Fishsticks, 7pm

[RandyHolt]

Would Alzners fancies be much fancier if he stopped just pushing pucks down the corner, and log more shots on goal? Is it really that simple to pump the stats?

 

[twabby]

Would Alzners fancies be much fancier if he stopped just pushing pucks down the corner, and log more shots on goal? Is it really that simple to pump the stats?

I've yet to see a convincing argument that shot-attempts can even be gamed. Intentionally taking low-quality shot attempts would lead to blocks, saves, misses, etc. that would lead to the puck being turned over to the other team and lead to shots against (thus making your shot-attempt differential suffer).

Alzner's problem isn't that his Corsi stinks, it's that over his career his goal-differential stinks (relative to his teammates). It just so happens that in the short-term shot-attempts more accurately predict future goal-differential than current goal-differential does, meaning that I wouldn't expect Alzner to suddenly become a net-positive player because there are no underlying signs of it happening.

 

[RandyHolt]

I've yet to see a convincing argument that shot-attempts can even be gamed. Intentionally taking low-quality shot attempts would lead to blocks, saves, misses, etc. that would lead to the puck being turned over to the other team and lead to shots against (thus making your shot-attempt differential suffer).

Alzner's problem isn't that his Corsi stinks, it's that over his career his goal-differential stinks (relative to his teammates). It just so happens that in the short-term shot-attempts more accurately predict future goal-differential than current goal-differential does, meaning that I wouldn't expect Alzner to suddenly become a net-positive player because there are no underlying signs of it happening.

Thanks. I think there are ~2 times a game when alzner may be able to eek out a shot on goal, but settles for presumed more zone time via his patented dump to the corner #drink.

If he did shoot you think it would far more often than not, backfire.... maybe I don't want to know what that would do to his already poor #s if he tried to get pucks on net.

Jeff Schultz seems like a good comparable. Do his stats from his time here (or career) point to an obvious future failed NHL career? Cup aside.

 

[Dream Big]

Orlov only has a 2% shooting percentage while Alzner has 5.6%. Alzner is clearly superior to Orlov.

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/players/392946/karl-alzner/#Shooting%20Percentage$GameType=279588574&SeasonMax=2222&SeasonMin=1990

5.6%
Shooting Percentage
36
Shots on Goal
1.1
Shots on Goal Per Game
3.2
Shots Per 60 Min
18.0
Shots Per Goal

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/players/590259/dmitry-orlov/#Shooting%20Percentage$GameType=279588574&SeasonMax=2222&SeasonMin=1990
2.0%
Shooting Percentage
49
Shots on Goal
1.5
Shots on Goal Per Game
4.7
Shots Per 60 Min
49.0
Shots Per Goal

 

[twabby]

Thanks. I think there are ~2 times a game when alzner may be able to eek out a shot on goal, but settles for presumed more zone time via his patented dump to the corner #drink.

If he did shoot you think it would far more often than not, backfire.... maybe I don't want to know what that would do to his already poor #s if he tried to get pucks on net.

Jeff Schultz seems like a good comparable. Do his stats from his time here (or career) point to an obvious future failed NHL career? Cup aside.

He should still shoot when he has an opportunity, even if his shot is subpar. I was referring more to Trotz's questionable comments about gaming Corsi via half-ice shots or other shots that have no prayer of going in in an attempt to boost shot-attempt stats.

Schultz seems like a great comparable offensively but defensively Alzner is probably much better. Alzner still has value in the league as a defensive specialist/PKer while Schultz is lacking on both ends of the ice and was driven out of the league. I think Anton Volchenkov and Ron Hainsey are pretty good overall comparables for Alzner (above average defensively, putrid offensively). Even if they look different on the ice their results and roles have been very similar.

 

[g00n]

Most of that crime I'd still pin on Oates.

Oates no doubt started the ball rolling but Trotz has talked about turning Wilson into more of an offensive threat and a top 6 quality player. If that's the plan then I'm not seeing the results. I was willing to give it some time but I'm not seeing much progress from last year to this year.

 

[g00n]

He should still shoot when he has an opportunity, even if his shot is subpar. I was referring more to Trotz's questionable comments about gaming Corsi via half-ice shots or other shots that have no prayer of going in in an attempt to boost shot-attempt stats.

Schultz seems like a great comparable offensively but defensively Alzner is probably much better. Alzner still has value in the league as a defensive specialist/PKer while Schultz is lacking on both ends of the ice and was driven out of the league. I think Anton Volchenkov and Ron Hainsey are pretty good overall comparables for Alzner (above average defensively, putrid offensively). Even if they look different on the ice their results and roles have been very similar.

If Alzner's being told by the coaching staff that his job is to pin the other team deep and that means getting the puck low rather than shooting and risking a block/transition to an odd-man rush, then what's going to happen if he just starts shooting because of personal stats?

 

[AtNightWeFly]

Oates no doubt started the ball rolling but Trotz has talked about turning Wilson into more of an offensive threat and a top 6 quality player. If that's the plan then I'm not seeing the results. I was willing to give it some time but I'm not seeing much progress from last year to this year.

Me neither. He's not scoring and now he isn't hitting either. He's just there.

 

[twabby]

If Alzner's being told by the coaching staff that his job is to pin the other team deep and that means getting the puck low rather than shooting and risking a block/transition to an odd-man rush, then what's going to happen if he just starts shooting because of personal stats?

I'm not exactly sure what you're asking, but it's counter-intuitive to me to take a low-quality shot with no hope of scoring and little hope of retaining possession in order to game your Corsi because it won't lead to further shot-attempts for your team and in all likelihood will lead the opposition to possess the puck and take shots against you.

If Alzner's only option is to dump the puck down low to start a cycle in order to retain possession, it indicates to me he is lacking offensively. Either he can't make a move at the blue line in order to open up a shooting lane for himself or a teammate, or his shot is too weak to generate rebounds or other shots by his teammates, or he can't make incisive enough passes leading to shots for his teammates. All of these skills (offensive agility, puck-handling, shooting, and passing) are weaknesses in Alzner's game that lead to his poor offensive shot and goal number IMO, and throwing token shots toward the net won't help because it will likely lead to a change in possession (which will in turn lead to shots against).

 

[g00n]

I'm not exactly sure what you're asking, but it's counter-intuitive to me to take a low-quality shot with no hope of scoring and little hope of retaining possession in order to game your Corsi because it won't lead to further shot-attempts for your team and in all likelihood will lead the opposition to possess the puck and take shots against you.

If Alzner's only option is to dump the puck down low to start a cycle in order to retain possession, it indicates to me he is lacking offensively. Either he can't make a move at the blue line in order to open up a shooting lane for himself or a teammate, or his shot is too weak to generate rebounds or other shots by his teammates, or he can't make incisive enough passes leading to shots for his teammates. All of these skills (offensive agility, puck-handling, shooting, and passing) are weaknesses in Alzner's game that lead to his poor offensive shot and goal number IMO, and throwing token shots toward the net won't help because it will likely lead to a change in possession (which will in turn lead to shots against).

You assume he isn't shooting because he can't. I'm saying maybe he's not supposed to.

 

[twabby]

You assume he isn't shooting because he can't. I'm saying maybe he's not supposed to.

What's your point? He's being told not to shoot by the coaching staff and that is hurting his on-ice shot-attempt numbers?

 

[g00n]

What's your point? He's being told not to shoot by the coaching staff and that is hurting his on-ice shot-attempt numbers?

Why do I need to say it again?

 

[twabby]

Because you haven't made a point. You're saying you think Alzner is being told not to shoot for some reason. What evidence do you have to back this up? And how does this tie into the bigger discussion regarding his value?

 

[g00n]

Because you haven't made a point. You're saying you think Alzner is being told not to shoot for some reason. What evidence do you have to back this up? And how does this tie into the bigger discussion regarding his value?

I have no evidence because this isn't Matlock. And the answer to the second question in the context of your criticisms should be obvious.

 

[twabby]

In the absence of any evidence I'd rather side with Occam's Razor (Alzner is bad at generating offense due to lack of talent) than claim the coaching staff is to blame for his poor on ice offensive performance. Especially when Alzner has been bad at generating offense under Boudreau, Hunter, Oates, and Trotz. Unless you think all 4 have specifically hindered him which is a real stretch.

 

[Calicaps]

In the absence of any evidence I'd rather side with Occam's Razor (Alzner is bad at generating offense due to lack of talent) than claim the coaching staff is to blame for his poor on ice offensive performance. Especially when Alzner has been bad at generating offense under Boudreau, Hunter, Oates, and Trotz. Unless you think all 4 have specifically hindered him which is a real stretch.

Dude seriously... Alzner is not a goal scorer, but earlier in the season he was shooting more and scored a few. Now he's not shooting. So, if I'm him and am having a career scoring year early on, I don't stop shooting unless the coaches tell me to knock it off because the team was losing games even though I was scoring a few goals. So I'm going with g00n's theory.

 

[Hivemind]

When 2 goals is a "career scoring year"....

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I have a hard time seeing a coach say Don't shoot and throw it in deep

 

[twabby]

Dude seriously... Alzner is not a goal scorer, but earlier in the season he was shooting more and scored a few. Now he's not shooting. So, if I'm him and am having a career scoring year early on, I don't stop shooting unless the coaches tell me to knock it off because the team was losing games even though I was scoring a few goals. So I'm going with g00n's theory.

The bolded statements are simply not true:

These are really easily verifiable facts (corsica.hockey is a great site) and it's confusing why people choose to resort to crackpot theories to support their claims rather than come to conclusions based on actual data.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If my manual count is right, 1st half of the season Alzner averaged 1.8 shots per game, last 17 games, 1.47 per game....so yes, his shooting is down.

 

[Carlzner]

What's your point? He's being told not to shoot by the coaching staff and that is hurting his on-ice shot-attempt numbers?

Players are supposed to play the team system, not try and pad their own "corsi" stats.

Who on Earth gives a **** about his on-ice shot-attempt numbers other than message board posters?

I have a hard time seeing a coach say Don't shoot and throw it in deep

Why? With the right players on the ice it can lead to a better chance at puck possession than a shot on net from a player who doesn't have a great shot.

Isn't that what this board has a hard on for? Puck possession?

 

[Dream Big]

Are the games score-close situations? As teams play a different style whether they’re leading or trailing, which can skew the numbers.

 

[twabby]

Players are supposed to play the team system, not try and pad their own "corsi" stats.

Who on Earth gives a **** about his on-ice shot-attempt numbers other than message board posters?

In the short term shot attempt differential predicts future goal differential better than many other metrics, including current goal differential. So focus on Alzner's long-term on-ice goal differential if you want. Hint: it stinks. Unless of course no one should care about that either.

 

[twabby]

Are the games score-close situations? As teams play a different style whether they’re leading or trailing, which can skew the numbers.

Yes. I usually post data that is score and zone adjusted from Corsica unless otherwise noted in order to address the types of situations you mentioned.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

in terms of actual REAL goals, how much worse is Alzner over a season? I assume we're talking even strength....