Salary Cap: Capageddon 2016

[The Mighty Duck Man]

I believe many think the 74.4 number as being optimistic. The Canadian dollar is a rather big risk that has been going the wrong way for a while. There's also an issue with the PA and how a cap escalator clause has caused the escrow account to be high enough to cause some complaints within the members. Not too clear on the details but for the sake of keeping the escrow amount lower, the union may not be too interested in an increasing cap during times of financial uncertainty.

I think they even said it's the optimistic number. The escrow thing is real, but the PA tends to argue that more money out there is always better. Also tough to tell guys with contracts coming up that they won't get as big of a payday because other players already did.

My guess is a modest increase, $1-1.5.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

I think they even said it's the optimistic number. The escrow thing is real, but the PA tends to argue that more money out there is always better. Also tough to tell guys with contracts coming up that they won't get as big of a payday because other players already did.

My guess is a modest increase, $1-1.5.

They have, but I have read in the past that as the growth becomes more questionable, there has been more concern on the part of the 90% of the players who don't make the really big bucks.

I would agree with your estimate.

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

They have, but I have read in the past that as the growth becomes more questionable, there has been more concern on the part of the 90% of the players who don't make the really big bucks.

I would agree with your estimate.

Yeah, I read that too and even predicted the cap wouldn't rise a year or so ago, but then I remember a few things came out about players with contracts coming up being upset if they were the ones stiffed because the cap never went up enough. It's definitely an issue, which is why they didn't use their full escalator last year IIRC and won't likely this year. No matter what, I think they'll always make sure it goes up, even if by a very marginal amount. That's mainly on principal alone.

 

[Nurmagomedov]

Somewhat related, Trouba wants more than 7 million per.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/sp...ng-Jets-for-152M-in-contracts--361904251.html

Hope Magnus' agent doesn't get any ideas.

 

[Paul4587]

None of those guys will get those amounts, it's just the starting point of negotiations. Ladd's demands are the most realistic of the three of them.

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

None of those guys will get those amounts, it's just the starting point of negotiations. Ladd's demands are the most realistic of the three of them.

Trouba's also giving up four years of free agency, so its not even that ridiculous of an initial request.

 

[Toonster]

Upcoming offseason

So I know it may be a bit premature to start thinking about our offseason, but I just wanted to go ahead and look at our cap situation, future RFA's, and how this offseason might unfold given what we know as of today.


Forwards on the books for 2016-2017 season, as of today, and their cap hits:

Getzlaf - 8.25
Perry - 8.625
Kesler - 6.875
Silfverberg - 3.75
Cogliano - 3.0
Maroon - 2.0
Garbutt - .900
Thompson - 1.6
Ritchie - .894

Rakell - RFA (3.75 -4.5 seem about right?)



Defenseman:

1. Bieksa - 4.0
2. Fowler - 4.0
3. Depres - 3.7
4. Stoner - 3.25
5. Theodore - .863
6. Manson - .825

Lindholm - RFA (5.0 - 6.0 seem about right?)
Vatanen - RFA (4.0 - 5.5 seem about right?)



Goalie:

Gibson - 2.3

Andersen - RFA (4.0 - 5.0)


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Expected Cap: 74.1

On The Books: 56.63

Projected Cap Room: 18.37

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Top Offseason Priorities:


1. Lindholm - (5 - 6)
2. Rakell - (3.75 - 4.5)

Projected Cap Room after signing Lindholm and Rakell: between 9.62 and 7.87

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Now, lets take a look at our projected roster


X1 - Getzlaf - X2


Ritchie - Rakell - Perry


Cogliano - Kesler - Silfverberg


Maroon - Thompson - Garbutt




Fowler - Bieksa

Lindholm - Manson

Theodore / Vatanen - Depres



Gibson

Andersen / X3




So, we have somewhere between 8.77 and 10.52 million dollars in cap room, and we need to fill at least two roster spots.

Now, lets say we find a way to get rid of some extra baggage by removing Stoner's contract from the books. That brings our cap room to somewhere between 12.02 and 13.77. That's an adequate amount of cap room to fill 2-3 roster spots.

In my opinion, Theodore is NHL ready, and I think most would agree with this, so I'd much prefer Theodore at .863 million than Vatanen at around 5 million. So lets assume Vatanen gets moved.

That brings our defenseman down to 7, with Montour waiting in the wings (if he's still around). I'm fine with him as our 8, but for depth purposes, let's say we re-sign Holzer, who in my opinion has done a very admirable job for what is expected from him. I think he gets his .750 million again if he resigns. That brings our cap down to somewhere between 11.27 and 13.02.

Now, we need to fill X1 and X2.

Personally, I think attempting to re-sign Perron is our next priority at this point. He has been great for us, seems to fit the system very well, and gives us enough skill to roll 3 lines and keep Getzlaf and Perry separated.

I'm not sure what type of contract he'd be looking for, but considering the success he's had, the type of team and organization we are, the area in which the franchise is located, and how he has bounced around teams and homes, I'd like to think he'd want to stick around, and would be willing to take a discount to do it. I think we sign him for somewhere between 4 and 4.5 million.

That would bring our cap room to somewhere between 7.27 and 8.52.

Next, we need to fill our X2 spot. I think re-signing Santorelli or a Santorelli type player would be a good move. He's a versatile player, and would probably be pretty affordable. I think we sign him for around 2 million.

That brings our cap room to somewhere between 5.27 and 6.52.

At this point, resigning andersen seems out of the question.

So now all we have left to do is sign a cheap backup goalie, and a couple of cheap depth forwards.

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Conclusion:

Lindholm re-signed.
Rakell re-signed.
Perron re-signed.
Holzer re-signed.
Santorelli re-signed.

Vatanen traded.
Andersen traded.




Thoughts, questions, concerns?

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

Too many moving parts. But, FWIW, you have Garbutt to high. He only costs 900K as Dallas is picking up the other half.

 

[Toonster]

Yeah, you are right. Forgot about that. Thanks.

 

[Norduck]

I think you're spot on as far as our RFAs and Perron. The rest, who knows- whether or current depth guys re-sign on the cheap, Noesen or another young winger makes the roster, or Murray finds different depth guys to fill the forward holes is anyone's guess really, but I think Perron coming in and playing so well probably means Vatanen and Freddie are both gone at the draft.

 

[The Duck Knight]

Problem is that projection is over our normal budget and that is without a backup goalie/spare forwards and without considering any salary coming back in any of the Stoner/Vatanen/Andersen trades. Not being able to spend to the cap is really going to affect next years roster in a bad way.

 

[Force951]

Problem is that projection is over our normal budget and that is without a backup goalie/spare forwards and without considering any salary coming back in any of the Stoner/Vatanen/Andersen trades. Not being able to spend to the cap is really going to affect next years roster in a bad way.

With the 15% increase in STH costs for next year, i think the checkbook is going to be opened a little more next year. Not up to the cap, but i wouldn't be shocked at a 65-68 million budget for next year.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

With the 15% increase in STH costs for next year, i think the checkbook is going to be opened a little more next year. Not up to the cap, but i wouldn't be shocked at a 65-68 million budget for next year.

That's probably just to re-sign Johnny and Hazy.

 

[Paul4587]

Rakell won't get between $3.75 - $4.5M. Unless he gives up plenty of UFA years.

 

[ForzaFCBAnaheim]

Maybe I missed it somewhere, but I didn't see anywhere that Vatanen and/or Andersen will return a roster player, so are you assuming they are traded purely for picks and/or prospects? I'd assume Murray wants at least a player back for Vatanen to fill a hole on the team. Not sure how that affects a possibly re-signing of Perron though.

 

[Toonster]

Rakell won't get between $3.75 - $4.5M. Unless he gives up plenty of UFA years.

Well, what type of contract do you think he will sign?

 

[Toonster]

Maybe I missed it somewhere, but I didn't see anywhere that Vatanen and/or Andersen will return a roster player, so are you assuming they are traded purely for picks and/or prospects? I'd assume Murray wants at least a player back for Vatanen to fill a hole on the team. Not sure how that affects a possibly re-signing of Perron though.

Well, I just did things in the order in which I would do them myself. I had Perron listed as a higher priority then either of them, so assuming he's signed, we won't have many holes to fill (one forward spot and a backup goalie). That would leave us with around 6 million in cap room. So from my point of view, I don't see us trading either of them for a player on a contract over 2-3 million. I could see us getting a cost controlled NHL prospect, some close to being NHL ready prospects, picks, or a combination of the 3. Not sure how he will play it, but I definitely think resigning Perron is more important than getting a player to fill a hole in return for Vatanen and Anderson. As long as we get full value out of Vatanen and Andersen, it is wiser to resign Perron. Ask yourself, which has more cumulative value: [perron + full value of andersen and vatanen (in terms of picks/prospects)] or [no perron + full value of andersen and vatanen (in terms of roster players)]. Any time you can keep a player of perrons caliber for just the value of a contract (as long as its a good contract), you do it. That adds a lot of value.

 

[NEWFowler]

I can't believe Bieksa makes 4 million. Gross.

 

[Paul4587]

Well, what type of contract do you think he will sign?

Hopefully a bridge deal in the same price range as Toffoli and Schwartz.

 

[Toonster]

Hopefully a bridge deal in the same price range as Toffoli and Schwartz.[/QUOTE


Wouldn't we rather sign him to a 4 year deal for around 4 or 4.5 million, which when expired, he would still be a RFA? As opposed to a 2 year bridge deal for less money now, but more money later, and would lead to him being an UFA 2 years sooner.

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

Let's say he does sign a bridge deal similar to Toffoli, who signed a 2 yr 6.5 mil contract. Would that mean, when the contract expired, he would still be a RFA?

Yep.

 

[dracom]

Let's say he does sign a bridge deal similar to Toffoli, who signed a 2 yr 6.5 mil contract. Would that mean, when the contract expired, he would still be a RFA?

I would be great if he took that, because by the time that deal is up, both Stoner and Bieksa contracts are up.

 

[Toonster]

Wouldn't we rather sign him to a 4 year deal for around 4 or 4.5 million, which when expired, he would still be a RFA? As opposed to a 2 year bridge deal for less money now, but more money later, and would lead to him being an UFA 2 years sooner.

 

[Toonster]

I can't believe Bieksa makes 4 million. Gross.

Yeah, and a no move clause. Ugh

 

[Toonster]

I would be great if he took that, because by the time that deal is up, both Stoner and Bieksa contracts are up.

One of Stoner or Bieksa is likely to be moved before that happens. I think its very likely Stoner is moved at the deadline or this offseason.