Confirmed with Link: Canucks sign G Braden Holtby to 2-Year Deal ($4.3M AAV)

[Misery74]

As a Caps fan, I wanted to come and congratulate you guys on signing Holtby. He’s a great hockey player, and a better person.

I’m sure he’ll embrace Vancouver the way he embraced Washington, and the team and city will be better for it.

Rooting for you guys as my Western Conference team now. Best of luck to you all.

 

[Vman]

Demko and Louis Domingue
or Holtby and Demko?

I will take Holtby and Demko.

 

[4Twenty]

Demko and Louis Domingue
or Holtby and Demko?

I will take Holtby and Demko.

Straw man

That wasn’t the option and nobody has said as much.

 

[MS]

Demko and Louis Domingue
or Holtby and Demko?

I will take Holtby and Demko.

This is the straw man of all straw men.

 

[Burke's Evil Spirit]

Demko and Louis Domingue
or Holtby and Demko?

I will take Holtby and Demko.

Incredible post.

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

Thomas Greiss 2x3
As expected, no one is signing 1 year deal
Griess is cheaper cause reputation

 

[PavelBure10]

Happy with this signing since the Marky departure. Sounds like a good guy, on and off the ice. Hearing that he immediately wanted to phone Demko as soon as he signed with Vancouver is awesome. I'm hoping some work with Ian Clark will get Holtby back into form.

 

[VancouverJagger]

Thomas Greiss 2x3
As expected, no one is signing 1 year deal
Griess is cheaper cause reputation

Yeah exactly............yet all the armchair GM's in here calling our GM an idiot for not creating plutonium out of smelling salts and signing a goalie to a 1 year deal. .

When that clearly isn't the market. Holby looking like a decent deal atm IMO.

 

[4Twenty]

This is the straw man of all straw men.

Incredible post.

This signing is great because Holtby + Demko > Going with one goalie all year

 

[VC]

One of those classic "Good deal in a vacuum" transactions Benning makes that makes less and less sense the more you think about it.

Pretty much exactly how I've looked at it. If say saw the contract with any other team I wouldn't really bat an eye. When you look at it within context of the Canucks situation, it is less than ideal.

 

[krutovsdonut]

As a Caps fan, I wanted to come and congratulate you guys on signing Holtby. He’s a great hockey player, and a better person.

I’m sure he’ll embrace Vancouver the way he embraced Washington, and the team and city will be better for it.

Rooting for you guys as my Western Conference team now. Best of luck to you all.

curious whether caps fans thought his stat drop off was due to something physical and permanent or something fixable.

 

[LuckyDay]

I have to appreciate management getting Holtby signed as fast as they did before the ink was dry with Calgary on Markstrom. Excellent forsight in light of the cap mistakes they made for themselves.

 

[Misery74]

curious whether caps fans thought his stat drop off was due to something physical and permanent or something fixable.

I think after the Cup win, the team lost some of their edge. Also, Korn leaving was a setback.

Don’t know much about the Vancouver coaching staff, but the Caps the past few seasons traded a lot of chances. I’m not sure we’ve been a disciplined defensive team.

I would be optimistic that a change of coaching would benefit Holtby. In all honesty, with the contract he signed, and all the money we just gave Schultz, I would rather we have resigned Holtby.

 

[Josepho]

Yeah, we definitely should've signed Greiss if that was the deal he was after.

 

[krutovsdonut]

I think after the Cup win, the team lost some of their edge. Also, Korn leaving was a setback.

Don’t know much about the Vancouver coaching staff, but the Caps the past few seasons traded a lot of chances. I’m not sure we’ve been a disciplined defensive team.

I would be optimistic that a change of coaching would benefit Holtby. In all honesty, with the contract he signed, and all the money we just gave Schultz, I would rather we have resigned Holtby.

makes sense. i am sure holtby was chosen in consultation with ian clark as a guy he wanted to work with, and clark's impact on markstrom anddemko speaks for itself. it remains to be seen how structured our defence will be. hopefully it works.

 

[RandV]

It's only absurd because of your view on Holtby. Kevin Woodley was on 1040 today and talked about Holtby. He talked about him having a terrible year. Woodley said Holtby had the lowest expected save percentage in the NHL at .879. The Capitals were that bad.

Woodley also talked about him being a good fit for the Canucks defensive environment quite well (not as good of a fit as Markstrom but Woodley said Holtby checked a lot more boxes than the other goalies Woodley was hearing).

I'm a lot more optimistic about this signing after hearing Woodley's analysis. Assuming Ian Clark likes him as well, that's two guys who knows a lot more about goaltending than anyone of us here and whose opinions I respect.

Holtby isn't going to fully replace Markstrom. But like many of us here, Benning clearly didn't want to lose Demko.

I didn't say it's absurd that Holtby could bounce back, I said it's absurd that a number of people here are treating Ian Clark like a magic bullet that can turn around any goalie. If there are other factors that can explain his poor results last season then maybe he can bounce back. If he's just declining due to wear and tear, which at his age seems a bit early for a goalie but that's where the numbers are pointing, then there's not much your goalie coach can do with that.

 

[thekernel]

This kind of low-risk, high-reward signing is exactly what we need for our situation. We get a goalie with incredible pedigree and upside, with no expansion protection and no term in case it doesn't work.

 

[I am toxic]

Thomas Greiss 2x3
As expected, no one is signing 1 year deal
Griess is cheaper cause reputation

Lundqvist signed 1 year?

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

Lundqvist signed 1 year?

Lundqvist is more like a back up instead of 1B

 

[vanuck]

Many reasons.

1) In back to backs, Holtby played harder teams than Sammy.
2) The team protected Sammy while hanging Holts out to dry on a regular basis--they flat out admitted this more than once because they knew that Holtby would win games for them, keeping them in it long enough that they could come back and get the win. *Which they did a lot, they had more 3rd period come back wins than any other team.
3) Sammy being new, the league/coaches (players, goalie coaches, etc.) didn't have as much tape on him and so didn't know his moves, once they did as the season progressed, Sammy's numbers started dipping.
4) In the majority of games played, Holtby faced a higher degree of high-danger shots (he was #4 in the league of high danger shots faced) and more shots period than Sammy did.

All of that is why Sammy had better numbers than Holtby. Now, let me be clear, Samsonov is a great goalie. I'm thrilled that the Caps have him and he is the future in the net for DC. (The Caps, after all, are my #1 team. Obviously with Holtby now with the Canucks, they are now my #2 team which is weird for me as I've only ever had one hockey team. I have two now. But where Holtby goes, so do I. He's my favorite hockey player. I got into hockey because of him.) However, Holtby has gotten a very raw deal in terms of stats and such with how people view him. Basically, Ovechkin has carried the Caps to success on the offensive end over the last several years and that shows itself in goals. Holtby has carried the team to success on the defensive end over the last several years. Unfortunately, that has shown itself in decreasing numbers in his stats because it means that the defensive core is relying on their final line of defense (the goaltender) to stop the puck way, way too often. And he's been doing it.

The defensive core of the Capitals have relied on their goaltender to win games for them. Period. Because he's done it over and over again. He keeps them in the games, barraged with pucks, high-danger shots left and right (for the last 4 years running, I believe, he's been in the top 3-4 most high-danger shots a goalie has faced) and he keeps them at 3 goals or so which hurts *HIS* stats, but keeps them in the game. And then, now and then, one more puck gets through in the final minute because it's 6 men on the ice, or another crazy barrage. So despite what he's done during the game, it looks like, 'oh, there's Braden Holtby letting in 4 goals again.' But you watch the game and it's a different story. That's been the Washington Capitals' defense for the last four to five years.

I love goalies, but man, it does suck being a fan of goalies sometimes.

I very much appreciate the insight from a Caps fan, though I'm curious about the bolded as the numbers seem to indicate a different story.

Looking at advanced stats for 61 goalies who played at least 750 minutes in all situations last year (from Natural Stat Trick), it is true that WSH did allow shots against (SA/60) at a lower rate when Samsonov was in goal... though the difference in between what he and Holtby faced amounts to very little. You see the same thing if you were to look at shot attempts (CA/60), unblocked shot attempts (FA/60), scoring chances (SCA/60), high-danger shot attempts (HDCA/60) and naturally expected goals against (xGA/60).

The difference between Holtby and Samsonov across all those metrics ranges anywhere from 1-2 extra shot attempts per 60 - essentially Holtby faces roughly 1 more shot against per game which is pretty miniscule. The gap's so small that it could just be the result of random variance.

This is also supported by his goals saved above average (GSAA) which was among the worst in the NHL... because at the same time, the difference he saw in shots is nowhere near large enough to entirely explain his performance last season (again from NST). Holtby ranked 52nd out of those 61 goalies in terms of GSAA/60, despite the skaters in front of him allowing attempts/shots against (even high-danger ones) at rates that all ranged from around league average to the top third of the NHL.

However you're definitely onto one thing: he gave up a lot more high-danger goals than average. The main culprit for his poor numbers seems to stem from that, where was he was 50th among netminders even though the Caps were exactly middle of the pack at preventing shots from in-close. Perhaps something in his technique - maybe positioning or mechanics from injury? - is preventing him from making those saves, because the ones he's saving aren't commensurate with the rate at which WSH was giving up dangerous opportunities. Him being significantly below average in this area is what seems to have dragged his overall numbers down.

Of course, this is not to say that Holtby can't bounce back next year - goaltending can be so volatile; for a lot of them you never know what you'll get in any given season. Plus he sounds like a great guy which is awesome cos we love cheering for good character people as much as anyone! It just makes you question the AAV they handed out to him because of last year's performance. With the flat cap and two massive extensions to our young guns (Hughes/Pettersson) looming, to me it's definitely a cause for concern.

 

[I am toxic]

Lundqvist is more like a back up instead of 1B

So, signed 1 year.

 

[JenniferH]

I don't know anything about Vancouver's team. I will be spending the next couple of months before the season starts to learn about my new team! I do know about the Caps and I am giving you guys information about Holtby as someone who has followed his career since he joined the NHL. You can look at the numbers all you want. Holtby faced harder shots, and wasn't protected/helped much by the defense while Samsonov was, and the league didn't know Sammy's weaknesses.* It's as simple as that. That is why Sammy's numbers were so much better. Holtby had a few injuries here and there that he played through, but overall, he's been pretty healthy.

* Plus, yes, he is a great up-and-coming goaltender. I don't want to discount how great Sammy is.

I do know that he didn't play as well as he is capable of last season. That was likely due to knowing it was his last season, and frankly, the Caps management nor coaching staff--not a single one of the coaches (and he went through four) ever fully 100% backed him. The closest was Trotz and even him I don't think fully had Holtby's back. In the last season, it was clear as day that they were just waiting for him to pack his bags because they had Samsonov waiting in the wings. No matter how much you want to give it your all and do your best, that's got to be hard. Especially when for the last several years you've been carrying a lot of the defensive load and spent more than you dang well should have fighting for the starter position. Which, yeah, he had to do when there were times he definitely should not have had to.

Yes, I do look at stats. I'm just trying to explain that in Holtby's case, don't judge him and think that you're getting some raw deal, a goaltender who is declining or done because of those stats. There *are* extenuating circumstances. Vancouver may not have the best defense, but if your coach isn't horrific, that's better than what Holtby had to deal with the last two years, even the year before that where Trotz had basically a co-head coach in the HC who followed him who was terrible. And that (basically) co-head coach was in charge of defense.

I'm not guaranteeing that Holtby is suddenly going to return to Vezina-winning form. I'm just saying that odds are a LOT higher that he will be closer to that rather than that his numbers will stay where they are now. His stats were consistent for five years and consistently GOOD, like pretty durn good, which is rare for a goaltender. But he did it. And his playoff numbers were OUTSTANDING, and are still really great. It wasn't until Reirden and his defensive "prowess" took over and the continued destruction of our really bad defense kept going downhill in the last three years ant Holtby's stats took a hit. There was an actual connection there.

Just give him a chance. You may wind up being very surprised. And quite happy. As for me, as a goalie girl, hearing all you're saying about Demko, I'm excited about having another great goalie to root for.

 

[I am toxic]

I don't know anything about Vancouver's team. I will be spending the next couple of months before the season starts to learn about my new team! I do know about the Caps and I am giving you guys information about Holtby as someone who has followed his career since he joined the NHL. You can look at the numbers all you want. Holtby faced harder shots, and wasn't protected/helped much by the defense while Samsonov was, and the league didn't know Sammy's weaknesses.* It's as simple as that. That is why Sammy's numbers were so much better. Holtby had a few injuries here and there that he played through, but overall, he's been pretty healthy.

* Plus, yes, he is a great up-and-coming goaltender. I don't want to discount how great Sammy is.

I do know that he didn't play as well as he is capable of last season. That was likely due to knowing it was his last season, and frankly, the Caps management nor coaching staff--not a single one of the coaches (and he went through four) ever fully 100% backed him. The closest was Trotz and even him I don't think fully had Holtby's back. In the last season, it was clear as day that they were just waiting for him to pack his bags because they had Samsonov waiting in the wings. No matter how much you want to give it your all and do your best, that's got to be hard. Especially when for the last several years you've been carrying a lot of the defensive load and spent more than you dang well should have fighting for the starter position. Which, yeah, he had to do when there were times he definitely should not have had to.

Yes, I do look at stats. I'm just trying to explain that in Holtby's case, don't judge him and think that you're getting some raw deal, a goaltender who is declining or done because of those stats. There *are* extenuating circumstances. Vancouver may not have the best defense, but if your coach isn't horrific, that's better than what Holtby had to deal with the last two years, even the year before that where Trotz had basically a co-head coach in the HC who followed him who was terrible. And that (basically) co-head coach was in charge of defense.

I'm not guaranteeing that Holtby is suddenly going to return to Vezina-winning form. I'm just saying that odds are a LOT higher that he will be closer to that rather than that his numbers will stay where they are now. His stats were consistent for five years and consistently GOOD, like pretty durn good, which is rare for a goaltender. But he did it. And his playoff numbers were OUTSTANDING, and are still really great. It wasn't until Reirden and his defensive "prowess" took over and the continued destruction of our really bad defense kept going downhill in the last three years ant Holtby's stats took a hit. There was an actual connection there.

Just give him a chance. You may wind up being very surprised. And quite happy. As a goalie girl, hearing all you're saying about Demko, I'm excited about having another great goalie to root for.

You will get great enjoyment becoming acquainted with our team defense and Green's . . . system . . .

Holtby will be given every opportunity to shine.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Yeah exactly............yet all the armchair GM's in here calling our GM an idiot for not creating plutonium out of smelling salts and signing a goalie to a 1 year deal. .

When that clearly isn't the market. Holby looking like a decent deal atm IMO.

Have all the back up goalies been signed yet? No? Ok then, let's hold off on concluding this just yet.

 

[VanJack]

For once, Benning probably got it right. Once they decided Markstrom was too rich for their blood, Holtby was probably the second-best UFA goalie on the market. And a two-year deal without a NMC, means he can be exposed in the expansion draft instead of Demko.

The fact he's coming off a couple of down years with the Caps doesn't change the fact that he's a Cup winner and former Vezina winner...and still only 31. I suspect that once his workload is reduced with the Canucks and he gets to work with goaltending guru Ian Clark, his game will come around quickly.