Confirmed with Link: Canucks sign Dane Fox of the Erie Otters (MOD WARNING POST #53)

[DL44]

34%.

 

[Bam19]

I think his high end potential is that of Chris Higgins a 2nd/3rd line tweener although one that is nasty and more of a pest.

 

[Wetcoaster]

34%.

+/- 34% margin of error?

 

[bo2shink*]

...so it's equivalent to saying "40% of Canada geese remain in BC over the winter, so Dane Fox as a 60% probability of being a 3rd liner."

If I can find a way to get LESS geese to fly south will that increase Dane's chance of being a third liner or will it affect his chances of being a second liner?

 

[LeftCoast]

If I can find a way to get LESS geese to fly south will that increase Dane's chance of being a third liner or will it affect his chances of being a second liner?

If this involves David Booth and a shotgun and you try it within the city limits, it will greatly increase the probability of your arrest.

 

[bo2shink*]

If this involves David Booth and a shotgun and you try it within the city limits, it will greatly increase the probability of your arrest.

I work as a crack dealer at Main/Hastings, I think the increase in probability is negligible.

I am just trying to help the team. We are all Canucks.

 

[Luck 6]

I hate when people try to peg a players high end potential. Do you think anyone ever say that Martin St Louis had the high end potential of an Art Ross winning winger? Or that Kesler had the potential of a 40 goal Selke winning center? Fox's high end potential is a 1st line player if you ask me, he just isn't likely to get there.

 

[vanuck]

If there was a reliable and repeatable metric to measure a young hockey player becoming established as a 3rd line, 2nd line or 1st line NHLer, and if the population of overage junior prospects being drafted or signed to an NHL contract were large enough to make statistically significant inferences on, and if that population's NHL success is normally distributed and if you were able to measure and control for such crucial factors such as size, skating ability, quality of the junior program, quality of junior line mates, motivation/desire, conditioning, etc., THEN you could make statistical inferences about Dane Fox's probability of being a bust, a 3rd liner, 2nd liner etc. at the NHL level.

But I'm not convinced any of those things are true, so it's equivalent to saying "40% of Canada geese remain in BC over the winter, so Dane Fox as a 60% probability of being a 3rd liner."

Also - even with large data sets, measuring human behavior and performance is not very deterministic or predictable. While with enough data, it might be appropriate to say that a certain percentage of overage junior prospects achieve a certain level of success at the NHL level, applying this to an individual is not very scientific.

Looks like something got lost in the semantics here; I think it was just the way you worded the part I quoted that confused me. But people use data like this even so, provided it's great enough in volume. It's never going to be perfect, but there are some trends you can infer from stuff like that if the data is large enough. Just like the 0.55 ppg thing used as a benchmark for most D-men (cantel remember the %) who make it to the NHL from the CHL, production relative to age indicating future levels of success for any player etc.

Though I agree; the sample record that would apply to someone in Fox's situation - overager dominating his 19-20 year old season - is probably too small to make any meaningful conclusions.

Hell, I'm ecstatic if he turns into a Chad Larose.

 

[Jyrki21]

I hate when people try to peg a players high end potential. Do you think anyone ever say that Martin St Louis had the high end potential of an Art Ross winning winger? Or that Kesler had the potential of a 40 goal Selke winning center? Fox's high end potential is a 1st line player if you ask me, he just isn't likely to get there.

In HFBoards terms, a 37.5G.

 

[BrockH]

Hey this is fun - making up fictional odds for future events.

Fox has a 117% chance of being on Dance with the Stars (foxtrot anyone?)

Fox has a 4% chance of becoming an fighter pilot.

How am I doing?

There is undoubtedly historical data on what other overage junior scoring stars have accomplished, there is no data on what Fox might do because he hasn't done it yet.

If there was a reliable and repeatable metric to measure a young hockey player becoming established as a 3rd line, 2nd line or 1st line NHLer, and if the population of overage junior prospects being drafted or signed to an NHL contract were large enough to make statistically significant inferences on, and if that population's NHL success is normally distributed and if you were able to measure and control for such crucial factors such as size, skating ability, quality of the junior program, quality of junior line mates, motivation/desire, conditioning, etc., THEN you could make statistical inferences about Dane Fox's probability of being a bust, a 3rd liner, 2nd liner etc. at the NHL level.

But I'm not convinced any of those things are true, so it's equivalent to saying "40% of Canada geese remain in BC over the winter, so Dane Fox as a 60% probability of being a 3rd liner."

Also - even with large data sets, measuring human behavior and performance is not very deterministic or predictable. While with enough data, it might be appropriate to say that a certain percentage of overage junior prospects achieve a certain level of success at the NHL level, applying this to an individual is not very scientific.


Between 2.5% and 7.5% with a 95% confidence interval.

I don't know what your issue is with people expressing an opinion on his probable development. This is a hockey forum, and you're in a thread about a junior player. What did you expect if not speculation?

And this notion that we can't make a single predictive statistic of any meaning regarding Dane Fox's chances of making the NHL is absurd. For example, I guarantee you that Dane Fox's chances of making the NHL are better than mine. Sure, making allocating any number beyond just "has a reasonable non-zero chance" involves a mass amount of speculation, but it's not at all ridiculous to do so.

Just because we don't have the data or sample size to make confident predictions doesn't mean the probabilities don't exist, or that we should completely ignore them. Scouts, GMs, and other hockey professionals are all paid (in part) based on their ability to properly value players. That valuation is generally based on a prediction of the probable outcomes for player development. If you don't speculate on what level a player might reach, and how likely he is to reach that (or other) levels, then how the hell else are you going to decide who to draft or sign?

 

[Wetcoaster]

I don't know what your issue is with people expressing an opinion on his probable development. This is a hockey forum, and you're in a thread about a junior player. What did you expect if not speculation?

I go with Sergeant Joe Friday.

 

[Walkingthroughforest]

I met Dane when he was being wined and dined by the Canucks. Nice kid.
He seemed as surprised as anyone about how good of a season he's been having and credited McDavid with finding his stick a lot. He sounded grateful just to be having a contract, and I think he knows he's got a lot of work to do if he ever wants to find the NHL. Best of luck to him.

 

[Wetcoaster]

Dane Fox has been named a 1st Team All-Star in the OHL thanks to his 64-goal, 107-point season.

 

[Wetcoaster]

Jason Botchford article on Dane Fox and the riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma that he presents to the Canucks. Is he the pure sniper he seemed to be this season or was it just a tantalizing mirage?

His weakness? His skating.

His strengths? An NHL calibre shot. And the ability to play a 200 foot game.

What he does have is a helluva shot which makes sense if you’re wondering where the 64 goals came from.

“I spent a lot of time watching guys in the NHL shoot,†Fox said. “I also changed my curve this year.

“I’ve always had a really good wrist shot. What I wanted to develop was a half snap-shot.

“It just got better and better with practice.â€​

Botchford: Dane Fox, the Canucks' 64-goal question - Is the Otters forward as good as his numbers look? The goal-starved Canucks can’t afford to not find out.

Something the Canucks organization is not going to be accused of in the weeks leading up to the NHL draft is having too much scoring.

The Canucks have certainly beefed up their prospects pool with recent picks, including Brendan Gaunce, Bo Horvat and Nicklas Jensen. What they’re short on now, however, are players who project into elite scoring NHL forwards.

It means a couple of things.

One, Vancouver, which owns the No. 6 overall pick, better think long and hard if it plans to pass on the most skilled player available.

Two, Dane Fox will be seen by some as the most intriguing mystery box in the organization.

Fox, 20, is coming off a fascinating OHL season for Erie, in which he put up 64 goals and 43 assists.

Part of that was opportunity; playing swaths of the season on a line with Connor McDavid is going to pump any player’s tires. Part of it was age. He was 20 playing against a league filled with 18- and 19-year-olds.

But 64 is number that tends to be hard to ignore.

Fox, the over-age player of the year, scored more goals than anyone in the OHL since John Tavares sniped 72 in 2006-07.

And Fox obliterated the field, winning the goal-scoring race by 15, a wider margin you will not find going back to the early 1990s.​

 

[IntangiBo]

Sent to the ECHL.

 

[Wang Gretzky]

Sent to the ECHL.

Whaaaaat, no room for him in Utica or just really didnt impress?

 

[CherryToke]

so much for being the next Brett Hull

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

This is being discussed in the Utica thread.

Closed.