Confirmed with Link: Canucks sign D Sawyer Mynio to ELC

[strattonius]

Signing an earlier ELC also means they can strategically walk away from him if his development stagnates. The worst thing that can happen is you see positive development, sign him to his 3 yr ELC two years from now, then his play stagnates and you're stuck with a contract for another 3 yrs. By signing him now they give themselves the flexibility to walk away earlier.

Players like Brustewicz (sp?) that have a higher ceiling you can sometimes wait on because if their play continues to improve they are an easy contract to justify 4 yrs+ from now.

 

[biturbo19]

Interesting. Guess the


I don’t necessarily disagree with your points but I also think the points you made could also be used to support signing Mynio first. I wouldn’t call Mynio necessary a long term project but he’s probably going to be like Woo who is going to take some time before he realistically contends for an NHL spot. If you like the guy there’s really no difference between now and later. He is likely what he is in juniors with the possibility of some offensive output. Nothing that should really change your mind about him. Plus, and it could be the key here, most scheduled bonuses are probably out of reach here so the negotiations are relatively easy.

“Brew Guy” is different. He has much higher upside but also higher bust factor IMO. He could blossom quickly and potentially reach his scheduled bonuses so this might be the hiccup here or he might have a dreadful year next season where you are questioning his NHL potential.

In the end the Canucks are probably going to sign both.

I think the bolded is where i don't necessarily agree. Or understand signing Mynio first, unless there's something else going on behind the curtain.


To me, Mynio if he was picked as a "he is what he is" guy in Juniors, is a terrible pick. The only thing that really justifies his selection, is the idea that he's a guy with potentially huge "headroom" to grow. Both physically, and as a player. He's got an okay frame, but very much looks the part of a kid who really hasn't grown into it at all. That shows up in his physical strength, skating, explosiveness and power in general. To me, that's the glimmer of hope with this pick...that he'll mature into a very different player than he currently is in Juniors.

But why would you not at least wait a year and see if any of that materializes, before signing the guy?

Whereas Brew Guy, you kinda have a better gauge on where he's tracking. He's gonna be a small, skilled puck mover...who is tracking much more like a guy who is at least going to move up through the AHL level.

Signing an earlier ELC also means they can strategically walk away from him if his development stagnates. The worst thing that can happen is you see positive development, sign him to his 3 yr ELC two years from now, then his play stagnates and you're stuck with a contract for another 3 yrs. By signing him now they give themselves the flexibility to walk away earlier.

Players like Brustewicz (sp?) that have a higher ceiling you can sometimes wait on because if their play continues to improve they are an easy contract to justify 4 yrs+ from now.

That contract is going to slide this year though. It effectively doesn't make any difference.

 

[RobertKron]

Signing an earlier ELC also means they can strategically walk away from him if his development stagnates. The worst thing that can happen is you see positive development, sign him to his 3 yr ELC two years from now, then his play stagnates and you're stuck with a contract for another 3 yrs. By signing him now they give themselves the flexibility to walk away earlier.

Players like Brustewicz (sp?) that have a higher ceiling you can sometimes wait on because if their play continues to improve they are an easy contract to justify 4 yrs+ from now.

How so? His contract will slide until he's 20 (I think it's safe to assume that he won't be a teenage NHLer), similar to how Klimovich's contract still has three years left despite him being signed summer 2021.

 

[RobertKron]

Interesting. Guess the


I don’t necessarily disagree with your points but I also think the points you made could also be used to support signing Mynio first. I wouldn’t call Mynio necessary a long term project but he’s probably going to be like Woo who is going to take some time before he realistically contends for an NHL spot. If you like the guy there’s really no difference between now and later. He is likely what he is in juniors with the possibility of some offensive output. Nothing that should really change your mind about him. Plus, and it could be the key here, most scheduled bonuses are probably out of reach here so the negotiations are relatively easy.

“Brew Guy” is different. He has much higher upside but also higher bust factor IMO. He could blossom quickly and potentially reach his scheduled bonuses so this might be the hiccup here or he might have a dreadful year next season where you are questioning his NHL potential.

In the end the Canucks are probably going to sign both.

The difference is that if you sign him later, you know he won't just stop getting better for whatever reason (derailed by injuries, gets really into chess, bad luck, whatever) between now and later because later has arrived.

I'd imagine this is done largely for financial reasons for specific players that they think are worth the investment, but obviously none of us are going to have insight on that. At least we can be pretty confident that it's not like Stewart where the team basically signed him to an ELC so that they could find him somewhere to play because his junior club wasn't bringing him back, but somehow it didn't dawn on them that this might be an indication that the player wasn't very good.

 

[Knight53]

I know Pittsburgh wanted him badly and were pissed we picked him right before them.

Should get prime minutes on that Seattle team this year.

 

[Jay26]

Yeah maybe they do it so they can afford actual trainers

Yeah something like this actually makes a lot of sense. Maybe NHL teams realize some of these players could use the help and in turn it maximizes the potential of the player for the club moving forward.

Signing an earlier ELC also means they can strategically walk away from him if his development stagnates. The worst thing that can happen is you see positive development, sign him to his 3 yr ELC two years from now, then his play stagnates and you're stuck with a contract for another 3 yrs. By signing him now they give themselves the flexibility to walk away earlier.

Players like Brustewicz (sp?) that have a higher ceiling you can sometimes wait on because if their play continues to improve they are an easy contract to justify 4 yrs+ from now.

Maybe I'm missing something but isn't that irrelevant if the contract slides anyway?

EDIT: Nevermind, others beat me to it.

 

[TomWillander1RD]

I know Pittsburgh wanted him badly and were pissed we picked him right before them.

Should get prime minutes on that Seattle team this year.

Do you have a link to an article or is this based on your personal knowledge?

I disagree. I think he’s got a pretty high ceiling, higher than Brzustewicz who’s more or less what he is. Management thinks so at least.

I'm not particularly impressed with Brustz based on his performance in the camp; he seems to be more of a boom or bust (high %) type of prospect, and may not even hit the AHL. Given this uncertainty, it seems prudent to adopt a wait-and-see approach to monitor his development before offering a contract.
However, I find it challenging to comprehend what you meant by "more or less what he is." I've often seen such phrase was used to describe players like Kesler and Horvat, who possessed a well-rounded skill set, but perceived to lack high-end skills. So, I'm puzzled by the use of such phrase to describe Brustz, a purely skilled player. Perhaps this phrase could be applied to describe every non-blue chip prospect and would be correct most of the time.

On the topic of Mynio, in my opinion, he has a much better chance of reaching his perceived potential compared to Brustz, and he might prove to be a valuable depth NHL dman one day. Looking back on my previous comment criticizing a rushed signing based on his perceived low potential, I now realize it may not have been a well-thought-out critique. Nonetheless, I still struggle to grasp the idea of signing such prospect so early, especially when the team frequently reaches its contract limit.

 

[biturbo19]

The difference is that if you sign him later, you know he won't just stop getting better for whatever reason (derailed by injuries, gets really into chess, bad luck, whatever) between now and later because later has arrived.

I'd imagine this is done largely for financial reasons for specific players that they think are worth the investment, but obviously none of us are going to have insight on that. At least we can be pretty confident that it's not like Stewart where the team basically signed him to an ELC so that they could find him somewhere to play because his junior club wasn't bringing him back, but somehow it didn't dawn on them that this might be an indication that the player wasn't very good.

This is basically the reverse of what makes sense though. If you sign the contract now, it slides for a couple years and then you're on the hook for a guy...whether he develops as hoped, or not. If he doesn't progress the way they're projecting...you're burning a contract on a waste of space.

He's exactly the sort of player where you can sit back and take your time. See if your expected improvement materializes or not.

 

[RobertKron]

This is basically the reverse of what makes sense though. If you sign the contract now, it slides for a couple years and then you're on the hook for a guy...whether he develops as hoped, or not. If he doesn't progress the way they're projecting...you're burning a contract on a waste of space.

He's exactly the sort of player where you can sit back and take your time. See if your expected improvement materializes or not.

Yes, that's what I'm saying. OP was saying that it makes no difference if they sign him now or later, but we've seen with so many prospects that it can make all the difference in the world.

Given that this isn't like the Stewart scenario, I'm willing to assume that this is being done due to some reasoning to which I don't have access.

 

[thefeebster]

I'm not particularly impressed with Brustz based on his performance in the camp; he seems to be more of a boom or bust (high %) type of prospect, and may not even hit the AHL. Given this uncertainty, it seems prudent to adopt a wait-and-see approach to monitor his development before offering a contract.

Bolded is an absurd take. What will impede Brzustewicsz from playing in the AHL? You envision him as a ECHL player?

 

[TomWillander1RD]

Bolded is an absurd take. What will impede Brzustewicsz from playing in the AHL? You envision him as a ECHL player?

Have the team successfully signed all the prospects they've drafted, and has each one of them managed to make it to at least the AHL? Well, I suppose I'm gaining some enlightening insights today.

I'm not suggesting this is the likely outcome; in fact, it's more of a worst-case scenario if he doesn't make substantial progress in terms of strength and speed. I did state he appears to be a boom or bust type of a prospect with have high ceiling and low floor.

 

[biturbo19]

Bolded is an absurd take. What will impede Brzustewicsz from playing in the AHL? You envision him as a ECHL player?

Yeah. I'm not even as high on Brew Guy as a lot of people seem to be, but prospects like him...with that profile, track record, and toolset are pretty close to locks to earn a contract and at least play at the AHL level.

Whether they've got the juice to be anything more than an AHL footnote, who knows. That's the crapshoot of the NHL draft. But he's a guy who has played in the CHL at a level that suggests, he's going to be able to translate to a cup of coffee at the AHL level to see how his ability translates and makes that big jump to the Pro game.

It makes him a "higher floor" guy imo. Even if his general type of player is seen as more "high risk" as an smallish offensive defenceman.

He's a guy where, i don't think he'll hurt for extra time in Juniors to continue to grow as a player...but if you tossed him into the AHL to start the season, it's probably not a wildly different outcome than if you do it a couple years from now because rules.

His cone of projection has already started to narrow.


Mynio...his cone of projection is wildly open. At the top and bottom end.

Have the team successfully signed all the prospects they've drafted, and has each one of them managed to make it to at least the AHL? Well, I suppose I'm gaining some enlightening insights today.

I'm not suggesting this is the likely outcome; in fact, it's more of a worst-case scenario if he doesn't make substantial progress in terms of strength and speed. I did state he appears to be a boom or bust type of a prospect with have high ceiling and low floor.

I think this is the problem though. Beer Guy isn't really a "low floor" prospect per se. He's actually a relatively "safe" prospect in that he's already demonstrated that he can be a "top guy" at the CHL level. That's something Mynio is yet to establish. Obviously everyone is hoping that he proves that this year with massively expanded opportunity...but he hasn't actually shown it yet. His trajectory is leaning so hard on headroom and a development where he becomes a very different CHL player than he has been thus far.

I don't even hate the idea. I like it more than most. But it's fully about projection. Which is why it's weird to lock him up before we've had a chance to see any of that progression.

 

[thefeebster]

Have the team successfully signed all the prospects they've drafted, and has each one of them managed to make it to at least the AHL? Well, I suppose I'm gaining some enlightening insights today.

I'm not suggesting this is the likely outcome; in fact, it's more of a worst-case scenario if he doesn't make substantial progress in terms of strength and speed. I did state he appears to be a boom or bust type of a prospect with have high ceiling and low floor.

I’m not talking about every prospect thru to the end of the 7th round, getting signed or making it to the AHL. I’m talking about a singular player, Brzustewicz, a guy who finished 8th in OHL defender scoring, will likely be in the top OHL defender conversation this season, showed well in both zones at the WJC camp.

Generally, players who can produce and show potential, don’t just get cast aside to the ECHL to languish, they will get a pro contract, whether it’s from us or another team.

I can understand if you don’t see him in a Canuck uniform or the NHL due to your perception of boom/bust of this player; there can be conversation there. But not even the AHL? I don’t get that.

 

[TomWillander1RD]

I’m not talking about every prospect thru to the end of the 7th round, getting signed or making it to the AHL. I’m talking about a singular player, Brzustewicz, a guy who finished 8th in OHL defender scoring, will likely be in the top OHL defender conversation this season, showed well in both zones at the WJC camp.

Generally, players who can produce and show potential, don’t just get cast aside to the ECHL to languish, they will get a pro contract, whether it’s from us or another team.

I can understand if you don’t see him in a Canuck uniform or the NHL due to your perception of boom/bust of this player; there can be conversation there. But not even the AHL? I don’t get that.

You seem to emphasize a single sentence in my previous response, which wasn't even the focal point of my argument. I included that sentence to highlight the contrast between Brzustewicz and Mynio, as Brzustewicz appears to be more of a "boom or bust" prospect. To clarify, not reaching the AHL is the worst-case scenario, rather than a probable outcome.

I concur with your assessment that Brzustewicz will likely reach at least the AHL. Nonetheless, should he not significantly improve his game (though I anticipate substantial improvement), I believe his impact even at the AHL level could be very limited due to his lack of physicality, size, speed, and intensity.

I think this is the problem though. Beer Guy isn't really a "low floor" prospect per se. He's actually a relatively "safe" prospect in that he's already demonstrated that he can be a "top guy" at the CHL level. That's something Mynio is yet to establish. Obviously everyone is hoping that he proves that this year with massively expanded opportunity...but he hasn't actually shown it yet. His trajectory is leaning so hard on headroom and a development where he becomes a very different CHL player than he has been thus far.

I don't even hate the idea. I like it more than most. But it's fully about projection. Which is why it's weird to lock him up before we've had a chance to see any of that progression.

To express my perspective, I advocate for prioritizing skillful players over those perceived as safe picks lacking in skills. After reviewing what I read and observed in highlight clips, I supported the team's decision to draft Brzustewicz. On the other hand, I was furious by the selection of Mynio during the draft, as he appeared to lack high-end skills and was chosen over what I consider to be a vastly superior prospect, Jayden Perron.

However, after watching 2 games of Mynio, it appears he is not merely a defensive defenseman who plays cautiously due to a lack of skills. While I'm reluctant to label a prospect as "safe," in my view, Mynio does indeed appear to be a "safer" pick than Brzustewicz, primarily due to Brzustewicz's current defensive weakness. In any case, my central point revolves around the question of why we need to rush into signing these prospects.

 

[Siludin]

It’s an odd trend the last couple of years to sign non-1st/2nd rounders to ELCs very early. Not quite sure what the reasoning is. There’s no advantage to signing him, and Kudryavtsev, so early.

This is what I am trying to figure out - is there something I am missing here? Some sneaky capology/finance nuance - like if insurance premiums are cheaper when you lump more player contracts into them? Maybe Fanatics needed a minimum number of player names in order to satisfy their jersey contract?

I am sure Mynio will be a fine prospect and play very well this year, but my instinct was that maybe he has a sick family member who wanted to see him "make the NHL" before they pass or something?

 

[MS]

This seems a bit premature.

It’s an odd trend the last couple of years to sign non-1st/2nd rounders to ELCs very early. Not quite sure what the reasoning is. There’s no advantage to signing him, and Kudryavtsev, so early.

Yeah, I really don't like this signing.

There is absolutely zero reason to rush the signing of mid-round picks two years before you need to, and this is how you end up wasting contract slots on Carson Fochts and Karel Plaseks.

And this especially goes for a guy like Mynio who to me is a very underwhelming, low-upside prospect.

 

[F A N]

The difference is that if you sign him later, you know he won't just stop getting better for whatever reason (derailed by injuries, gets really into chess, bad luck, whatever) between now and later because later has arrived.

I'd imagine this is done largely for financial reasons for specific players that they think are worth the investment, but obviously none of us are going to have insight on that. At least we can be pretty confident that it's not like Stewart where the team basically signed him to an ELC so that they could find him somewhere to play because his junior club wasn't bringing him back, but somehow it didn't dawn on them that this might be an indication that the player wasn't very good.

One advantage of signing him earlier is that his cap hit is going to be a bit lower by the time he is likely to turn pro. Again, I'm high on Mynio so like Brisebois if the team is high on the player I see it as more or less an automatic signing.

I think the Stewart signing is different in that he was an older player who they signed thinking they can turn him into a winger and develop him at the AHL level. They were wrong.

 

[TomWillander1RD]

One advantage of signing him earlier is that his cap hit is going to be a bit lower by the time he is likely to turn pro. Again, I'm high on Mynio so like Brisebois if the team is high on the player I see it as more or less an automatic signing.

I think the Stewart signing is different in that he was an older player who they signed thinking they can turn him into a winger and develop him at the AHL level. They were wrong.

I believe that would be relevant only if he makes the NHL during this contract.

 

[krutovsdonut]

if teams are signing guys early to beat elc inflation then the nhl is hosed.

 

[F A N]

I think the bolded is where i don't necessarily agree. Or understand signing Mynio first, unless there's something else going on behind the curtain.


To me, Mynio if he was picked as a "he is what he is" guy in Juniors, is a terrible pick. The only thing that really justifies his selection, is the idea that he's a guy with potentially huge "headroom" to grow. Both physically, and as a player. He's got an okay frame, but very much looks the part of a kid who really hasn't grown into it at all. That shows up in his physical strength, skating, explosiveness and power in general. To me, that's the glimmer of hope with this pick...that he'll mature into a very different player than he currently is in Juniors.

But why would you not at least wait a year and see if any of that materializes, before signing the guy?

I think it comes down to the different view/projection of the player which we have covered in this thread. Like the part you highlighted in my previous post it comes down to whether you like him. If you see him as a bad pick where we picked him then of course you don't think signing him now is a good idea since you don't want him picked where we picked him in the first place.

I see him as a prospect who is advanced defensively who needs to get stronger and faster but there's nothing stopping him from doing so. I see him having a projectable defensive game but there is obviously a big gap between being good at the WHL level and the NHL.

Whereas Brew Guy, you kinda have a better gauge on where he's tracking. He's gonna be a small, skilled puck mover...who is tracking much more like a guy who is at least going to move up through the AHL level.

I'm not sure what you mean by move up through the AHL level. Obviously Brew Guy and Mynio are different players. But Mynio is going to be a defensive defenseman. I'm expecting Mynio to be recognized as such with more offensive production at the WHL level.

 

[RobertKron]

One advantage of signing him earlier is that his cap hit is going to be a bit lower by the time he is likely to turn pro. Again, I'm high on Mynio so like Brisebois if the team is high on the player I see it as more or less an automatic signing.

I think the Stewart signing is different in that he was an older player who they signed thinking they can turn him into a winger and develop him at the AHL level. They were wrong.

That'll only matter if he's an NHL player on his ELC, and even then it's like 90k or whatever in cap savings versus the risk that he breaks his hip next week, or gets hit by the same car that got Yann Sauve, or falls into the Pat White vortex or whatever and is never the same player. Like, I don't super hate this, as I'm still assuming there's some factor at play that we just don't know about, but it's just kind of a weird call.

As I said, at least this isn't a sore thumb like the Stewart signing where his junior club didn't want to use an overage spot on him, so the Canucks signed him so that he'd have somewhere to play, which like - okay that's absurd - but even more absurd considering his upside was basically a 2000s style fighter, which barely even exists. Apparently he was a great kid, but they still signed a guy to an NHL contract who went on to put up 11 points in 36 WHL games as a 6'4", 215lb, 20 year old forward. That's incredible.

 

[LordBacon]

This seems a bit premature.

thats what she said

 

[biturbo19]

I think it comes down to the different view/projection of the player which we have covered in this thread. Like the part you highlighted in my previous post it comes down to whether you like him. If you see him as a bad pick where we picked him then of course you don't think signing him now is a good idea since you don't want him picked where we picked him in the first place.

I see him as a prospect who is advanced defensively who needs to get stronger and faster but there's nothing stopping him from doing so. I see him having a projectable defensive game but there is obviously a big gap between being good at the WHL level and the NHL.



I'm not sure what you mean by move up through the AHL level. Obviously Brew Guy and Mynio are different players. But Mynio is going to be a defensive defenseman. I'm expecting Mynio to be recognized as such with more offensive production at the WHL level.

It does ultimately come down to a projection thing. That's the big difference between the two.

Mynio does have a nice, very conservative defensive game as a foundation to build out...but he's going to have to become faster/stronger like you said. He's also going to need to become more assertive all around though as well, in order for me to really see him translating at the AHL level.

Whereas Brew Guy will obviously have some work to do defensively as well, but his offensive game is already more "developed" than Mynio's defensive game at the Juniors level. Whether he rounds out the rest of his game or not, will dictate whether he's a "successful" prospect who becomes a player for us or not. But it's really hard not to see him at least playing as an AHL offensive defenceman.

It's less about whether i really like the picks or not, and more just assessing the very different sort of "development profiles" they have ahead of each of them, respectively.

He just plays a game that's further along developmentally right now. Mynio could easily end up being the better player in the long run, but at the moment, that's leaning on a lot of projection. It's about how much of that unrealized "headroom" and "potential" he's able to reach. Especially when it comes to the physical development, where Hunter is a lot closer to the sort of size/strength he's ultimately going to play at as a potential Pro...Mynio is obviously a long ways from what you hope he's able to achieve.


That's where i'm guessing there's something about the financial situation that spurred the signing of Mynio first. Because on the surface, it really would've made more sense to wait on that and see what sort of progress he's made toward those goals over the course of the year. Unless there's maybe some component of getting him signed that is intended to put a little bit more "walking around money" in his pockets, to facilitate better training and nutrition, trying to accelerate him along in his development.

 

[F A N]

That'll only matter if he's an NHL player on his ELC, and even then it's like 90k or whatever in cap savings versus the risk that he breaks his hip next week, or gets hit by the same car that got Yann Sauve, or falls into the Pat White vortex or whatever and is never the same player. Like, I don't super hate this, as I'm still assuming there's some factor at play that we just don't know about, but it's just kind of a weird call.

I don’t think management should make decisions bases on whether Mynio gets hit by the same car that hit Yann Sauve.

Anyways, my point is that I am going to assume that management likes Mynio and given the way he plays and the way he projects there isn’t going to be much that changes management’s mind over the next year or two. They could have certainly waited to sign him and that’s the same whether he is a 1st round pick or 3rd round pick.

Mynio does have a nice, very conservative defensive game as a foundation to build out...but he's going to have to become faster/stronger like you said. He's also going to need to become more assertive all around though as well, in order for me to really see him translating at the AHL level.

Whereas Brew Guy will obviously have some work to do defensively as well, but his offensive game is already more "developed" than Mynio's defensive game at the Juniors level. Whether he rounds out the rest of his game or not, will dictate whether he's a "successful" prospect who becomes a player for us or not. But it's really hard not to see him at least playing as an AHL offensive defenceman.

I am not sure if Brew’s offensive game is more “developed” than Mynio’s defensive game but again they are different defensemen. If Brew struggles defensively at the AHL level it wouldn’t matter if is advanced offensively. Whereas a defensive Dman who can process the game quick enough and make a good first pass can get away with offering little offensively.

It's less about whether i really like the picks or not, and more just assessing the very different sort of "development profiles" they have ahead of each of them, respectively.

He just plays a game that's further along developmentally right now. Mynio could easily end up being the better player in the long run, but at the moment, that's leaning on a lot of projection. It's about how much of that unrealized "headroom" and "potential" he's able to reach. Especially when it comes to the physical development, where Hunter is a lot closer to the sort of size/strength he's ultimately going to play at as a potential Pro...Mynio is obviously a long ways from what you hope he's able to achieve.


That's where i'm guessing there's something about the financial situation that spurred the signing of Mynio first. Because on the surface, it really would've made more sense to wait on that and see what sort of progress he's made toward those goals over the course of the year. Unless there's maybe some component of getting him signed that is intended to put a little bit more "walking around money" in his pockets, to facilitate better training and nutrition, trying to accelerate him along in his development.

I don’t agree. I don’t see how Mynio developmentally behind. I see him as being advanced offensively.

So I do see it as whether you like the player since he seems to be a polarizing pick among fans here.

 

[superdeluxe]

Nice. He should have a larger role this year with the T-birds, a lot of their D-men have aged out.

Yeah, he should be a top four pairing with Hanzel, Korchinski and Pickford. Prokop and Allan are off to theirrespective NHL teams.