Confirmed with Link: Canucks sign Brandon Sutter to 5-Year, $21.875M Deal ($4.375M AAV)

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Zarpan

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Apr 27, 2010
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Stephen Burtch with some pretty tough numbers for Sutter last year. Does a lot to explain why Sutter has poor on ice GF numbers despite scoring a lot of goals, and brings into question whether his high on-ice SV% numbers are sustainable.

I'm pretty sure his high on-ice SV% numbers are at least partially sustainable. Don't have a good explanation for it yet, but the sample size he's done it over makes the chances that it was entirely due to luck very small.

Ran some calcs on it, and he's maintained a .935 on-ice SV% over around 2,275 ES shots. The chance that he's league average but just lucky is something like 0.2%.

I think his on-ice shooting percentage was just as bad as his on-ice SV% was good though. So good defensively and poor offensively pretty much sums it up.
 

pitseleh

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Jul 30, 2005
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I'm pretty sure his high on-ice SV% numbers are at least partially sustainable. Don't have a good explanation for it yet, but the sample size he's done it over makes the chances that it was entirely due to luck very small.

Ran some calcs on it, and he's maintained a .935 on-ice SV% over around 2,275 ES shots. The chance that he's league average but just lucky is something like 0.2%.

I think his on-ice shooting percentage was just as bad as his on-ice SV% was good though. So good defensively and poor offensively pretty much sums it up.

Yeah, I don't doubt that he's probably not league average, but, especially given where the shots are coming from when he's on the ice, .935 also likely does not reflect his true talent, which I imagine is much closer to the mean.
 

thefeebster

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Mar 13, 2009
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I'm still high on Corrado because he looked NHL-ready a few years ago-- The last two years were disappointing, but I also feel like they didn't treat him like a serious prospect-- much like with Stanton, it's hard to get in a groove when you're in and out of the lineup while Vey and Sbisa get game after game. He SHOULD have been eased into the lineup the way Tanev was, IMO.

He has the tools, is reasonably well rounded, has played at an effective NHL level in the past, and is still only 21.
I am too and i agree about the situation as a whole. He's been tasked to babysit Sbisa, which even Hamhuis has a hard time doing. Get him in there with a consistent vet partner and give him consistent ice time, i think he will show much better.

I find it crazy to want to fire a GM on the spot over 250-500k.
I think you know full well that people want Benning gone for more than this reason. If you don't, take a look into the many Benning threads available to you. It's only been repeated about 10000 times.
 
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alternate

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I'm not sure how that explains any of those numbers though?

SC Pass % numbers don't depend on teammates, and it is a proportion, so why is his team giving up so many more scoring chances off of passes than they are creating when he is on the ice?

In the shot rate plot, Sutter performs poorly either relative to his team and league average.

I'm not sure I understand how this stat, while interesting, isn't dependant on his teammates. Can the passer really be faulted if the receiver doesn't get to a scoring position before/after receiving the pass? Especially when the relative aspect is vs Crosby and Malkin.


If Sutter moves the puck up to a winger who crosses the blueline and puts the puck on net, that shot off a pass isn't a scoring chance. If Sutter's line tends to play offense by shooting from everywhere and crashing the net, then the shot attempts off a pass are coming from outside the scoring chance zone. Scoring chance zone shot attempts would come off rebounds or turnovers.

The opposite would be true when Malkin or Crosby are on the ice. These two are of course either going to get into the scoring chance zone themselves, or they're going to get the puck to another player in the zone. When Malkin or Crosby are on the ice, you're not going to just whip the puck at the net from anywhere, you're going to move the puck and go to scoring areas.

As for more scoring chances against. I'd think at least some of that can be explained by the other teams not using their best offensive defensemen against Crosby/Malkin. I'd don't know if the stats break it down by position, but I'd be interested in seeing how many of those 25 shots against were from defensemen. The way the red and blue are inverted on the chart supports this.
 

Verviticus

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Jul 23, 2010
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I think you know full well that people want Benning gone for more than this reason. If you don't read, take a look into the many Benning threads available to you. It's only been repeated about 10000 times.

personally i find it hard to believe that people want to keep benning based on their astrological readings
 

me2

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I'm not sure I understand how this stat, while interesting, isn't dependant on his teammates. Can the passer really be faulted if the receiver doesn't get to a scoring position before/after receiving the pass? Especially when the relative aspect is vs Crosby and Malkin.


If Sutter moves the puck up to a winger who crosses the blueline and puts the puck on net, that shot off a pass isn't a scoring chance. If Sutter's line tends to play offense by shooting from everywhere and crashing the net, then the shot attempts off a pass are coming from outside the scoring chance zone. Scoring chance zone shot attempts would come off rebounds or turnovers.

The opposite would be true when Malkin or Crosby are on the ice. These two are of course either going to get into the scoring chance zone themselves, or they're going to get the puck to another player in the zone. When Malkin or Crosby are on the ice, you're not going to just whip the puck at the net from anywhere, you're going to move the puck and go to scoring areas.

As for more scoring chances against. I'd think at least some of that can be explained by the other teams not using their best offensive defensemen against Crosby/Malkin. I'd don't know if the stats break it down by position, but I'd be interested in seeing how many of those 25 shots against were from defensemen. The way the red and blue are inverted on the chart supports this.

Are you saying Sutter's stats for helping boost his own goalies Sv% are a mirage?
 

Disappointed EP40

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Jan 13, 2015
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There is a good example brought up for comparison that I noticed no one commented on.

There is a player who has bounced around the league a bit.

He's overpaid too. One, two, or even five overpaid FAs don't justify extending a player that hasn't even suited up for the team. Also, he's better than Sutter.

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me2

Go ahead foot
Jun 28, 2002
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Make my day.
And he just dead cat bounced to the tune of 4.4 x 5...

Has 4 40+ point seasons, including back to back 42 point seasons in the last two years. Sutter has never scored more than 40, and he did that once last decade.

Outscored Sutter by 42% (84 to 59) over the last 2 years.

Got a wimpy limited 10 team NTC.

Also he didn't cost Bonino Clendening and a 2nd.
 

Lonny Bohonos

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Apr 4, 2010
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Has 4 40+ point seasons, including back to back 42 point seasons in the last two years. Sutter has never scored more than 40, and he did that once last decade.

Outscored Sutter by 42% (84 to 59) over the last 2 years.

Got a wimpy limited 10 team NTC.

Also he didn't cost Bonino Clendening and a 2nd.

I was referring to Sutter.
 

F A N

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Aug 12, 2005
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I think Frolik was a good signing by the Flames. Would have been a great replacement for a player like Higgins or Kassian. But alas...
 
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