Post-Game Talk: Canucks 4 @ Panthers 5 | 20/12/15 | 1:00 PM SNP

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mathonwy

Positively #toxic
Jan 21, 2008
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Should also note...

Our most "talentless plug" Sbisa ran the **** over Ehlers.

Is there a more clear example to be had? :dunno:

And then got dummied by Peluso and quickly melted into the forgettable shadows soon after that.

And we got 2 more years of this guy?

:rant:
 

biturbo19

Registered User
Jul 13, 2010
25,795
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So wait, is Sbisa a talentless plug or what?

Because if I remember correctly, you were one of his biggest supporters.

So according to your standard, he's a mid-end utility defenseman whose contributions aren't readily assessed by any available metrics out there (unless it conveniently helps your argument).

So in essence, Ehler was hit by a mid-end utility defenseman, not a useless plug.

And plus, what if it was Shea Weber, David Backes or PK Subban that knocked the hell out of Ehlers?

Then what?

Let's not play rookies at all?

So wait, are you saying Sbisa isn't a talentless plug because he plastered Ehlers?
 

WTG

December 5th
Jan 11, 2015
23,887
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Who cares what Sbisa is and is not is.

We are simply deploying our 4th line in the offensive zone too much and we are giving them too much ice time.

I feel giving our younger players more offensive icetime will bring them more confidence. Confidence is a big part of development IMO.


I am not saying we never start the 4th line in the offensive zone. I'm saying it should be sub 30% of the time.
 

J Canuck

Registered User
Mar 19, 2013
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Who cares what Sbisa is and is not is.

We are simply deploying our 4th line in the offensive zone too much and we are giving them too much ice time.

I feel giving our younger players more offensive icetime will bring them more confidence. Confidence is a big part of development IMO.


I am not saying we never start the 4th line in the offensive zone. I'm saying it should be sub 30% of the time.

It is sub 30% according to the PITB article:

If you look at percentage of available ice time, Brandon Prust leads the Canucks when they’re down by one. Here’s the full chart:



Name TOI TOI%
Brandon Prust 61.58 28.54
Derek Dorsett 94.83 27.52
Daniel Sedin 93.79 27.21
Adam Cracknell 82.68 27.04
Jannik Hansen 91.47 26.54
Ronalds Kenins 7.62 26.31
Henrik Sedin 90.16 26.16
Bo Horvat 89.32 25.91
Radim Vrbata 79.48 24.96
Chris Higgins 62.71 24.21
Brandon Sutter 28.69 23.78
Alex Burrows 77.44 22.47
Jared McCann 74.66 22.47
Sven Baertschi 56.42 20.13
Jake Virtanen 35.88 19.72


- See more at: http://www.vancourier.com/pass-it-t...han-the-sedins-1.2136715#sthash.EwKLkPtC.dpuf
 

J Canuck

Registered User
Mar 19, 2013
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You should've stopped long ago but yet you keep going. Hint: read the article you linked or even just the quote. Then read the post you replied to.

I did, but we seem to be going around in circles. Last post here, I swear.

This chart below shows individual zone starts. It doesn't say that Sven is getting OZone starts 44.8% of the game. It says that when Sven is deployed, it's in the OZone 44.8% of the time, and NZone or DZone the other 55.2% of deployments. It does not quantify at all how often he's deployed overall so it's hard to see the relevance to the argument at hand. :deadhorse The PITB article does quantify.

The data doesn't lie, as was pointed out a few times. It just needs to be understood and telling me to get lost doesn't help me understand.


wc6eYp5.png


Number of offensive zone starts % by player, 5 on 5 when trailing by 1
 

Tiranis

Registered User
Jun 10, 2009
23,097
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The PITB article does quantify.

Yeah, it quantifies something completely different. That Prust somehow gets the most ice-time with our team down by a goal. I don't see how that relates to him wanting the 4th line to have offensive zone starts below 30%?
 

mossey3535

Registered User
Feb 7, 2011
13,427
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I did, but we seem to be going around in circles. Last post here, I swear.

This chart below shows individual zone starts. It doesn't say that Sven is getting OZone starts 44.8% of the game. It says that when Sven is deployed, it's in the OZone 44.8% of the time, and NZone or DZone the other 55.2% of deployments. It does not quantify at all how often he's deployed overall so it's hard to see the relevance to the argument at hand. :deadhorse The PITB article does quantify.

The data doesn't lie, as was pointed out a few times. It just needs to be understood and telling me to get lost doesn't help me understand.

But you don't understand it, you just key on one idea and turn it into a huge pile of misinformation.

That idea being that the data is faulty because it doesn't tell us how often somebody is deployed overall.

First of all, the total % of deployment is unimportant because you can look at that in terms of TOI. What you are completely ignoring is that you can choose to look at it in a broad or specific context. Neither context supports the spurious claims you are trying to make.

For example in your quoted chart, it shows that the TOI for Dorsett is 99:56. Jannik Hansen's in the same # of games is 96:34. Now that we've chose to look at TOTAL ICE TIME, we don't need to think about the total % of the game that Dorsett or anybody is deployed.

That number (zone as % of deployments) is meaningless anyways because if you further broke ANY player's total deployment in the context of 60 minutes it's going to look miniscule. For example Edler plays 20/60 minutes which in terms of the whole game is %33. If we look at what % that is of the blueline, well there are 60 minutes and two guys on the ice at all times so that is 120 minutes for all blueliners. Edler's 20/120 is ~16%. If we broke that down his zone starts that 16% is going to be fragmented into 3. At this point the numbers aren't useful, simply because even a player who plays a lot doesn't get a huge amount of TOI% or shift% relative to the entire game. You could make it better by taking ratios of the each blueliner but now you are having to manipulate numbers that are already fairly well explained by TOI. Let's say Hutton only played 15 minutes, which is less than 20 minutes. There is no need to break this down into whole game % since 15 vs 20 is pretty self-explanatory. And it is automatically selective because you're only comparing defencemen.

So your first premise is faulty.

Let's get back to something a lot simpler. In the context of total TOI in what you've quoted, again Dorsett is 99:56 and Hansen is 96:34. So right away you see an issue. Dorsett plays more than Hansen. This is frankly ludicrous.

Now let's look at o-zone starts. We've already seen that Dorsett plays more than Hansen, which is stupid. Now you see that on top of playing more, Dorsett is deployed in the ozone 38.6% of the time and Hansen is 37%. Again there is no reason for such a disparity, and nobody cares about what these ozone deployments are in terms of total deployments. Because they have comparable ice time which means that ozone% is comparable. We have simple stats telling us a story that you want to manipulate in order to tell us the same story with smaller numbers (because if we did bother to figure out total deployments it will come out the same because these are freaking ratios).

Please stop, you are not making yourself look good here. This isn't even a 'fancy stats are limited' argument, these are very simple statistics that tell a very straightforward story. If the 4th line was played less in 1-goal-down situations (say around 80 minutes), nobody would care if Dorsett was started in the o-zone often because then you could make a 'sheltering' or 'hitting' argument.
 

lousy

Registered User
Jul 20, 2004
938
343
Calgary
But you don't understand it, you just key on one idea and turn it into a huge pile of misinformation.

That idea being that the data is faulty because it doesn't tell us how often somebody is deployed overall.

First of all, the total % of deployment is unimportant because you can look at that in terms of TOI. What you are completely ignoring is that you can choose to look at it in a broad or specific context. Neither context supports the spurious claims you are trying to make.

For example in your quoted chart, it shows that the TOI for Dorsett is 99:56. Jannik Hansen's in the same # of games is 96:34. Now that we've chose to look at TOTAL ICE TIME, we don't need to think about the total % of the game that Dorsett or anybody is deployed.

That number (zone as % of deployments) is meaningless anyways because if you further broke ANY player's total deployment in the context of 60 minutes it's going to look miniscule. For example Edler plays 20/60 minutes which in terms of the whole game is %33. If we look at what % that is of the blueline, well there are 60 minutes and two guys on the ice at all times so that is 120 minutes for all blueliners. Edler's 20/120 is ~16%. If we broke that down his zone starts that 16% is going to be fragmented into 3. At this point the numbers aren't useful, simply because even a player who plays a lot doesn't get a huge amount of TOI% or shift% relative to the entire game. You could make it better by taking ratios of the each blueliner but now you are having to manipulate numbers that are already fairly well explained by TOI. Let's say Hutton only played 15 minutes, which is less than 20 minutes. There is no need to break this down into whole game % since 15 vs 20 is pretty self-explanatory. And it is automatically selective because you're only comparing defencemen.

So your first premise is faulty.

Let's get back to something a lot simpler. In the context of total TOI in what you've quoted, again Dorsett is 99:56 and Hansen is 96:34. So right away you see an issue. Dorsett plays more than Hansen. This is frankly ludicrous.

Now let's look at o-zone starts. We've already seen that Dorsett plays more than Hansen, which is stupid. Now you see that on top of playing more, Dorsett is deployed in the ozone 38.6% of the time and Hansen is 37%. Again there is no reason for such a disparity, and nobody cares about what these ozone deployments are in terms of total deployments. Because they have comparable ice time which means that ozone% is comparable. We have simple stats telling us a story that you want to manipulate in order to tell us the same story with smaller numbers (because if we did bother to figure out total deployments it will come out the same because these are freaking ratios).

Please stop, you are not making yourself look good here. This isn't even a 'fancy stats are limited' argument, these are very simple statistics that tell a very straightforward story. If the 4th line was played less in 1-goal-down situations (say around 80 minutes), nobody would care if Dorsett was started in the o-zone often because then you could make a 'sheltering' or 'hitting' argument.

You are killing me. Why are you telling someone to stop making arguments when they are making them rationally based on the given information? Just because you don't agree with his conclusions doesn't give you the right to tell them to "just stop".

You bring up ozone starts for Dorsett and Hansen, but completely disregard what line they are playing on and how each line can hold up when started in the defensive zone. Where a person starts makes a huge difference, and I would much rather have Hansen starting back defensively than Dorsett and his linemates.

This is coming down to how often the 4th line is played. But I sure hope everyone here can see the benefit of starting the 4th line more often in the ozone than the dzone to make sure they do not get hemmed in their own zone. (and this is just looking at only the 4th line ozone vs dzone starts) Sure, I agree the 4th line should be used less in a one goal game in the 3rd period. But that list that is being quoted does not show that information either, it only shows all periods where there is theira one goal difference. You can't shorten the bench and stop playing the 4th line in the first or second period, that makes zero sense. So this is also skewing the numbers shown on that chart.

I think anyone would agree with you that Dorsett's ice time is too high, and no one is claiming otherwise.
 

DL44

Status quo
Sep 26, 2006
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I wonder which of our lines when down by a goal are creating the most offensive zone starts in the first place.


This is why advanced stats suck in the hands of people who don't understand context...
 

me2

Go ahead foot
Jun 28, 2002
37,903
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Make my day.
You are killing me. Why are you telling someone to stop making arguments when they are making them rationally based on the given information? Just because you don't agree with his conclusions doesn't give you the right to tell them to "just stop".

You bring up ozone starts for Dorsett and Hansen, but completely disregard what line they are playing on and how each line can hold up when started in the defensive zone. Where a person starts makes a huge difference, and I would much rather have Hansen starting back defensively than Dorsett and his linemates.

This is coming down to how often the 4th line is played. But I sure hope everyone here can see the benefit of starting the 4th line more often in the ozone than the dzone to make sure they do not get hemmed in their own zone. (and this is just looking at only the 4th line ozone vs dzone starts) Sure, I agree the 4th line should be used less in a one goal game in the 3rd period. But that list that is being quoted does not show that information either, it only shows all periods where there is theira one goal difference. You can't shorten the bench and stop playing the 4th line in the first or second period, that makes zero sense. So this is also skewing the numbers shown on that chart.

I think anyone would agree with you that Dorsett's ice time is too high, and no one is claiming otherwise.

You don't spend over $5m on 4th line wingers that can't be started in the defensive zone. You don't start your least effective offensive players in the O-zone.
 

lousy

Registered User
Jul 20, 2004
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343
Calgary
You don't spend over $5m on 4th line wingers that can't be started in the defensive zone. You don't start your least effective offensive players in the O-zone.

Well, no one here is claiming that our 4th line is not overpaid so I am not sure why you bring that up. You also do not put your least effective defensive players in the D-zone, so you end up putting them in the o-zone. I would much rather them not score a goal instead of them leading to a goal scored on us, and I would call that risk management.
 

lousy

Registered User
Jul 20, 2004
938
343
Calgary
To me that would be playing your 'best players' more in the post-season (which wasn't the coach's strategy).

Sure, but that is a completely different issue to what I am talking about. This is about the percentage of offensive zone starts for the 4th line.

edit:

I should maybe clarify that the percentage has nothing to do with the other lines, or how often other lines are deployed. It is only relative to the line the person is playing on.
 
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