It should affect your projections, you just don't want to make the mistake of overlooking pedigree and the entire body of evidence.
It's no secret that the players that typically fall out of favour the most are usually the guys that suffer injuries or are the ones making big leaps up in competition. Do both of those things in the same year and you will get a compounding affect. Unsurprisingly, the 3 guys that have fallen the most are the 3 guys that suffered injuries, while also making a big jump in competition in Juolevi, Gadjovich and Lind.
Nothing wrong with questioning these guys. Just don't be surprised if things look drastically different next season if they are healthy.
I will stand by my original comments re Tim Thomas.
I have followed prospects on here for too long to buy any of the excuses you are selling. In fact, as a general rule, where a prospect struggles after being drafted, it is because they are not good enough to make the NHL and not a result of any excuses that fans on here can muster up (i.e., injuries, late bloomer, etc.). The reality is that the NHL is an extremely difficult league to play in and the vast majority of prospects will struggle and ultimately fail to make the NHL.
So, I certainly don't feel the need to refute any of the particular excuses you are raising since, the reality is, they are more than likely misplaced. And I have seen these excuses time and time again on this board with prospect after prospect. But I do find it interesting that you cite injuries as an excuse for these prospects, and in particular, Juolevi's development. This excuse was mustered by the troll poster Ryan Miller on many occasions but was easily debunked since Juolevi's struggles date back to prior to any of his injuries. I would imagine that the other excuses could be debunked as well but don't feel the need to waste any time doing so for the reason given above.
As I stated above, if you want to hope these players are all Tim Thomas type players, then fine, go ahead, I was once a young kid that thoughts that Evgeny Gladskikh and Ilya Krikunov would be stars in the NHL. There will always be exceptions to the rule, so you may end up being right one of these times.